scholarly journals Efeitos da resolução espacial do modelo VIC na previsão de vazão diária a usinas hidroelétricas do Rio Uruguai

Revista DAE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (231) ◽  
pp. 211-225
Author(s):  
Vinícius Siqueira Oliveira Carvalho ◽  
José Anderson do Nascimento Batista ◽  
Paulo Sergio Franco Barbosa ◽  
Vinícius de Carvalho Neiva Pinheiro ◽  
Alberto Luiz Francato
Keyword(s):  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity

A geração elétrica brasileira é amplamente dependente das usinas hidroelétricas. Este estudo tem objetivo de verificar o desempenho de diferentes resoluções espaciais do modelo hidrológico semi-distribuído Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) acoplado ao modelo meteorológico numérico Eta, este adotado com resolução espacial fixa em 15 km, para a previsão de vazão diária de cinco usinas do Rio Uruguai, no sul do Brasil. O modelo hidrológico foi aplicado para as resoluções 0,04°, 0,08° e 0,16°, em que cada célula de grade contém propriedades uniformes de solo, relevo e vegetação. As usinas hidroelétricas de jusante da área de estudo apresentaram melhor desempenho de previsão de vazão diária pelo modelo VIC para as resoluções mais finas. Conforme o Inventário de Restrições Operativas Hidráulicas dos Aproveitamentos Hidroelétricos (ROH) do Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS), o efeito da resolução espacial do modelo VIC também foi estudado quanto ao desempenho da previsão diária de riscos de cheias, a partir de matrizes de contingências. Nos picos de cheias, a sensibilidade do modelo a valores acima de cada restrição de segurança (atenção, alerta e emergência) mantém-se invariável igual a 100%, enquanto a precisão variou de 51 a 100%, ambas sem tendência significativa em relação à resolução espacial. Todas as usinas mostraram acurácia mínima de 98,3% e de forma crescente em relação à resolução espacial do modelo. A heterogeneidade de dados físicos foi fator limitante para os ganhos do refinamento da resolução espacial do modelo hidrológico. Palavras-chave: Modelo VIC. Previsão de vazão. Rio Uruguai. Matrizes de contingência.

scholarly journals A near-global, high resolution land surface parameter dataset for the variable infiltration capacity model

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob R. Schaperow ◽  
Dongyue Li ◽  
Steven A. Margulis ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Land Surface Parameter ◽  
Vegetation Parameters

AbstractHydrologic models predict the spatial and temporal distribution of water and energy at the land surface. Currently, parameter availability limits global-scale hydrologic modelling to very coarse resolution, hindering researchers from resolving fine-scale variability. With the aim of addressing this problem, we present a set of globally consistent soil and vegetation parameters for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at 1/16° resolution (approximately 6 km at the equator), with spatial coverage from 60°S to 85°N. Soil parameters derived from interpolated soil profiles and vegetation parameters estimated from space-based MODIS measurements have been compiled into input files for both the Classic and Image drivers of the VIC model, version 5. Geographical subsetting codes are provided, as well. Our dataset provides all necessary land surface parameters to run the VIC model at regional to global scale. We evaluate VICGlobal’s ability to simulate the water balance in the Upper Colorado River basin and 12 smaller basins in the CONUS, and their ability to simulate the radiation budget at six SURFRAD stations in the CONUS.

scholarly journals Estimation of baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity model with soil and topography properties for predictions in ungauged basins

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7017-7053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Bao ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
G. Fu ◽  
G. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Parameters Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins

Abstract. Equifinality is unavoidable when transferring model parameters from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments for predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). A framework for estimating the three baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, directly with soil and topography properties is presented. When the new parameters setting methodology is used, the number of parameters needing to be calibrated is reduced from six to three, that leads to a decrease of equifinality and uncertainty. This is validated by Monte Carlo simulations in 24 hydro-climatic catchments in China. Using the new parameters estimation approach, model parameters become more sensitive and the extent of parameters space will be smaller when a threshold of goodness-of-fit is given. That means the parameters uncertainty is reduced with the new parameters setting methodology. In addition, the uncertainty of model simulation is estimated by the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results indicate that the uncertainty of streamflow simulations, i.e., confidence interval, is lower with the new parameters estimation methodology compared to that used by original calibration methodology. The new baseflow parameters estimation framework could be applied in VIC model and other appropriate models for PUB.

scholarly journals Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Debit Andalan Sungai Krueng Aceh

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-61
Author(s):  
Teuku Ferijal ◽  
Mustafril Mustafril ◽  
Dewi Sri Jayanti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Hydrological Data ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Abstrak. Perubahan iklim yang menyebabkan perubahan karakteristik curah hujan berdampak pada aliran sungai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa dampak perubahan iklim terhadap debit andalan. Data-data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data klimatologi dan hidrologi yang semuanya dikumpulkan dari stasiun-stasiun yang ada dalam wilayah penelitian yaitu DAS Krueng Aceh. Model kesetimbangan air variable infiltration capacity digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk menghitung debit sungai harian berdasarkan data curah hujan dan evapotranspirasi harian. Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa suhu udara tahunan rata-rata DAS Krueng Aceh telah mengalami peningkatan yang drastis sebesar 0,6°C sejak tahun 2001. Perubahan tersebut juga diikuti dengan adanya tren peningkatan curah hujan (22%) pada bulan-bulan basah (November-Januari) serta penurunan curah hujan (26%) pada bulan-bulan kering (Mei-Agustus). Dampak dari perubahan iklim tersebut adalah terjadinya penurunan debit sungai Krueng Aceh yang ditandai semakin meningkatnya kemungkinan debit aliran lebih kecil dari 18,77 m3/s dan menurunkan debit andalan terutama pada periode April-Desember sebesar 23,5%.  Impact of Climate Change on Dependable Discharge in the Krueng Aceh River Abstract. Climate changes altering precipitation characteristic bring impact on streamflow. This research aims to analyze impact of climate changes on dependable discharge. Climatological and hydrological data were collected from stations within Krueng Aceh Watershed. Variable infiltration capacity water balance model was applied to calculate daily streamflow base on daily precipitation and evapotranspiration. The results suggested that annual air temperature of Krueng Aceh Watershed has been squally increasing 0.6°C since 2001. The changes were also detected on monthly precipitation i.e. a 22% increase in wet period (November-January) and a 26% decrease in dry period (Mei-August). The changes have impacted the Krueng Aceh River flow by increasing possibility of flow lower than 18.77m3/s and decreasing dependable discharge by 23.5% for period of April-December.

scholarly journals Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 13651-13691 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Pierce ◽  
A. L. Westerling ◽  
J. Oyler
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture Content

Abstract. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1–0.6% per decade, although with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. It is shown that the meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. This happens because the meteorlogical algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. A numerical experiment where VIC's values of Tdew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14% in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century.

scholarly journals Application of Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (Vic) for Calculatingdrought Iindicators for Binh Thuan Province

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1S) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quang Hung ◽  
Le Duc Khanh
Keyword(s):  
Water Exchange ◽  
Water Resources Planning ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity Model ◽  
Capacity Model ◽  
Exchange Processes ◽  
Resources Planning

Abstract: Drought is a complex natural hazard;so far, there have been some different ways to assess the level of drought in different aspects. In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) was used to calculate the relative humidity changes of soil in Binh Thuan province based on surface water exchange processes. The simulation results of the VIC model are then used to calculate drought indicators to assess the drought situation in Binh Thuan province. The results of the study show that drought occurrences of the study basin are high, complicated, clearly showing the effect of rainfall, temperature and vegetation cover to water exchange, soil moisture. The results of the study serve as a basis for the development of drought forecasting tools for agricultural production planning and water resources planning and planning.   Keyword: Drought, VIC model, relative soil humidity, Bình Thuận

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