scholarly journals Global Economy and Turkey: 2016 and Beyond

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Durmuş Yılmaz
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
High Growth ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Industrial Sectors

Irrespective of whether advanced economies (AEs) or emerging market economies (EMEs), the number one problem of the global economy is not being able to generate a satisfactory growth. Income levels is in some countries are barely above the per-crisis level. Despite ample liquidity due to quantitative monetary policies, consumption and investment demands are weak. Because high level of indebtedness deter economic agents from using credit. Credit markets still do not function well either. Quantitative easing policies have been successful in containing further deterioration. Despite ample liquidity inflation has not risen, but it did delivered the expected growth. Because banking system in AEs is weak and monetary transmission mechanisms are not functioning well. As for EMEs, commodity prices and World trade appears to be weak; economic growth are slowing down, capex is visibly falling in heavy industrial sectors due to already existing excess capacity. The academia as well as the business community are worried about the appropriateness of the present policies in case another recession comes, central banks will have little ammunition to deal with it. The option being talked of now is what is dubbed as “helicopter Money”. Turkey being an open economy, has been and will be effected by the developments in the global economy through trade, capital flows and expectation channels. By international standards, Turkey have a reasonable growth rate of 3 to 4 %, implying a new growth era where high growth cycle ended due to changing global financial conditions and its structural problems. Future growth performance will depend on the level of investments and savings to finance it. As her own saving is low, foreign capital flows is crucial. High inflation and interest rate are the two negatives, but it has a strong fiscal position, debt / GDP is 32.3%, the budget is almost balanced, producing primary surplus which proved it is resilience in the face of recent failed coup and the negative attitudes displayed by the rating agencies.

Harinder S. Kohli (ed.). Growth and Development in Emerging Market Economies: International Private Capital Flows, Financial Markets and Globalisation. New Delhi: Sage Publication 2008. 369 pages. Hardbound. Indian Rs 695.00.

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-305
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
New Delhi ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Emerging Market Countries

The book discusses the different experiences in Asia and Latin America, while covering the closely related areas under the purview of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). The first chapter, “Introduction and Overview” has written by Harinder S. Kohli gives an excellent review of the existing literature on the subject. The book discusses six related topics which include nine papers presented at the Emerging Markets Forum Meeting held in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September 2006. The book highlights the main factors of growth and development in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) now closely related with international capital flows, development of financial market, the countries’ ability to integrate successfully with the global economy through trade and investment and their ability to forge public-private partnerships including infrastructure development. Chapter 2, of the book is an article titled “Global Imbalances, Oil Revenues and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries” by Jack Boorman explains the favourable global environment and its impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Countries (EMCs). The EMCs got advantage from this benign global economic environment, such as high economic growth rate, increase in exports, better national balance sheet and increase in foreign exchange reserves, but due to high oil prices the situation has been changed.

Citizens’ Revolution and International Integration

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fander Falconí ◽  
Julio Oleas-Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Basic Industry ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
America Latina ◽  
The One ◽  
Science Technology And Innovation

Can a country with an open economy tending toward reprimarization achieve a form of integration into the global economy other than the one determined by Latin America’s historical dependency? Dependency has created trade and technological gaps, among them the one generated by the physical balance (exporting more than is imported). In Ecuador, the Citizens’ Revolution government is attempting to overcome these structural problems by rejecting free-trade agreements and foreign investment that could yield negative balances or threaten national sovereignty. Its new productive model is based on the development of basic industry, the selective replacement of imports, and an intelligent diversification of the exportable supply. The idea is to achieve a society based more on producing services, less dependent on the extraction of natural resources, and with greater generation capacity in science, technology, and innovation. Although the plan faces an adverse international order, it could benefit from the new moment of political and financial integration in Latin America. ¿Puede un país con una economía abierta y una tendencia a la reprimarización lograr una forma de integración en la economía mundial que no esté determinada por la dependencia histórica de Latinoamérica? La dependencia ha creado brechas en el comercio y la tecnología, incluyendo aquella generada por el equilibrio fiscal (exportando más de lo que se importa). En Ecuador, el gobierno de la Revolución Ciudadana intenta superar estos problemas estructurales al rechazar los acuerdos de libre comercio e inversión extranjera que podrían producir saldos negativos o amenazar la soberanía nacional. Su nuevo modelo productivo se basa en el desarrollo de la industria básica, la sustitución selectiva de importaciones, y una inteligente diversificación de la oferta exportable. La idea es lograr una sociedad que se base preponderantemente en la producción de servicios, dependa menos de la extracción de recursos naturales, y tenga mayor capacidad de generación en las áreas de ciencia, tecnología e innovación. Aunque el plan se enfrenta a un orden internacional adverso, podría beneficiarse del nuevo momento de integración política y económica en América Latina.

scholarly journals Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 565-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Blanchard ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Marcos Chamon
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Policy ◽  
Credit Booms ◽  
Macro Model ◽  
Net Exports

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output; the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, stimulating financial intermediation and, potentially, output as well. We explore the implications, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

scholarly journals Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 503-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gauti B. Eggertsson ◽  
Neil R. Mehrotra ◽  
Lawrence H. Summers
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Positive Externalities ◽  
Neighbor Effects ◽  
Low Interest Rates

Conditions of secular stagnation--low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth--now characterize much of the global economy. We consider a simple two-country textbook model to examine how capital markets transmit secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world with low interest rates and that policies that attempt to boost national saving are beggar-thy-neighbor. Monetary expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal interventions can eliminate a secular stagnation and carry positive externalities.

scholarly journals Chile

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (183) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Track Record ◽  
The Social ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
The Impact

Chile’s very strong fundamentals, policy frameworks, and macroeconomic track record have been instrumental in helping the economy absorb the impact of recent shocks, including the social unrest in late 2019. Over the past three decades, Chile has been enjoying a very solid macroeconomic performance. The robust growth has resulted in one of the largest reductions in poverty and highest incomes per capita in the region. Owing to the fiscal rule and the long record of prudent fiscal policy, public debt is low by international standards and the country enjoys steady sovereign access to capital markets at favorable terms. The credible inflation-targeting framework has delivered low and stable inflation with well-anchored inflation expectations. The sound financial system is supported by an effective regulatory and supervisory framework. International reserves are at a comfortable level. The authorities remain fully committed to maintaining very strong policies and policy frameworks. Despite showing one of the highest levels of resilience among emerging market economies, Chile’s open economy remains exposed to substantial external risks, such as those stemming from a prolonged Covid-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Harinder S. Kohli (ed.). Growth and Development in Emerging Market Economies: International Private Capital Flows, Financial Markets and Globalisation. New Delhi: Sage Publication 2008. 369 pages. Hardbound. Indian Rs 695.00.

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-305
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
New Delhi ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Trade And Investment

The book discusses the different experiences in Asia and Latin America, while covering the closely related areas under the purview of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). The first chapter, “Introduction and Overview” has written by Harinder S. Kohli gives an excellent review of the existing literature on the subject. The book discusses six related topics which include nine papers presented at the Emerging Markets Forum Meeting held in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September 2006. The book highlights the main factors of growth and development in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) now closely related with international capital flows, development of financial market, the countries’ ability to integrate successfully with the global economy through trade and investment and their ability to forge public-private partnerships including infrastructure development.

Digitalization Real Estate on American Real Estate Society 2018: A Dramatic and Irreversible Shift in Real Estate Systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 380-386
Author(s):  
Jan Veuger ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Educational Models ◽  
Annual Congress ◽  
Real Estate Education ◽  
Demographic Effects

The 34th annual congress of April 10-14 this year took place in Bonita Springs (Florida) where the professionals in real-estate education and research discussed six themes: global economy and capital flows, real estate market cycles, demographic effects, future-proof real estate, disruption in technology and future educational models.

scholarly journals The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 4024
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Dmytrów ◽  
Joanna Landmesser ◽  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time Warping ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time

The main objective of the study is to assess the similarity between the time series of energy commodity prices and the time series of daily COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of the global economy. Although this impact is multifaceted, we assess the connections between the number of COVID-19 cases and the energy commodities sector. We analyse these connections by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method. On this basis, we calculate the similarity measure—the DTW distance between the time series—and use it to group the energy commodities according to their price change. Our analysis also includes finding the time shifts between daily COVID-19 cases and commodity prices in subperiods according to the chronology of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are that commodities such as ULSD, heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline are weakly associated with COVID-19. On the other hand, natural gas, palm oil, CO2 allowances, and ethanol are strongly associated with the development of the pandemic.

Human Capital and International Capital Flows: Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
pp. 016001762198942
Author(s):  
Zhenshan Yang ◽  
Yinghao Pan ◽  
Dongqi Sun ◽  
Li Ma
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Market ◽  
International Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
External Resources

The pattern of international capital flows has changed dramatically in the process of globalization. In this study, we argue that human capital (HC) facilitates a region’s reversal from being a net recipient of external resources to being an active contributor in the global market. Using a panel vector autoregressive regression method, we examine the relationships among regional HC, foreign direct investment (FDI), and outward FDI during 2004–2015 in China. Our results show that HC plays a key role in both attracting FDI and generating outward FDI. The findings contribute to research on the dynamic capacity building of regions participating in the global economy, especially strengthening HC for local economies participating in the global economy as either investment recipients or contributors.

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