scholarly journals The modeling of effective parameters on public bus passengers’ boarding time prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Metin Mutlu Aydın ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Effective Parameters ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Prediction Problems ◽  
Bus Transport

Passengers’ boarding times at bus stops have a great importance to calculate dwell and travel time for scheduling process in public transport operations. However, there are not so much observed boarding times data in the actual bus transport systems and it may cause some prediction problems in scheduling process of public transport operations. For this reason, accurate estimation of the boarding times will ensure correct calculation of dwell and total travel time for bus transport systems. Based on this idea, this study aims to model boarding times of each passengers by evaluating different parameters using two different (statistical and optimization analysis) methods. For this purpose, a comprehensive data collection process was conducted in total seven different cities of Turkey based upon their population. Two new models were developed for boarding time estimation by evaluating various parameters using a multiple Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm as statistical and optimization methods, respectively. Study results showed that modeling of boarding times by considering various parameters is an effective strategy to improve the performance of bus transport systems by using developed two models

Performance Comparison of Bus Travel Time Prediction Models across Indian Cities

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (31) ◽  
pp. 87-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jairam R ◽  
B. Anil Kumar ◽  
Shriniwas S. Arkatkar ◽  
Lelitha Vanajakshi
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Intelligent Transport System ◽  
Travel Time Prediction

Road traffic congestion has become a global worry in recent years. In many countries congestion is a major factor, causing noticeable loss to both economy and time. The rapid increase in vehicle ownership accompanied by slow growth of infrastructure has resulted in space constraints in almost all major cities in India. To mitigate this issue, authorities have shifted to more sustainable management solutions like Intelligent Transport System (ITS). Advanced Public Transportation System (APTS) is an important area in ITS which could considerably offset the growing ownership of private vehicles as public transport holds a noticeable mode share in several major cities in India. Getting access to real-time information about public transport would certainly attract more users. In this regard, this work aims at developing a reliable structure for predicting arrival/travel time of various public transport systems under heterogeneous traffic conditions existing in India. The data used for the study is collected from three cities—Surat, Mysore, and Chennai. The data is analyzed across space and time to extract patterns which are further utilized in prediction models. The models examined in this paper are k-NN classifier, Kalman Filter and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) techniques. The performance of each model is evaluated and compared to understand which methods are suitable for different cities with varying characteristics.

Travel-time errors in the laterally inhomogeneous earth

1971 ◽  
Vol 61 (6) ◽  
pp. 1639-1654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cinna Lomnitz
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Travel Time Estimation ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Travel Times ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Lateral Inhomogeneity

abstract Travel times from earthquakes or explosions contain both positive and negative systematic errors. Positive skews in travel-time residuals due to epicenter mislocation, and negative skews due to lateral inhomogeneity in the Earth, are analyzed. Methods for travel-time estimation are critically reviewed. Recent travel-time tables, including the J-B tables, are within the range of root-mean-square travel-time fluctuations; the J-B tables are systematically late but cannot be reliably improved by least-square methods. Effects of lateral inhomogeneity at teleseismic distances can be estimated by chronoidal methods independently of standard tables, but the available explosion data are insufficiently well-distributed in azimuth and distance for this purpose.

Travel Time Estimation Based on Spot Speed with Instantaneous and Time Slice Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 776 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
Amirotul M.H. Mahmudah ◽  
A. Budiarto ◽  
S.J. Legowo
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Transportation Policy ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Travel Time Estimation ◽  
Traffic Condition ◽  
On Line

In off-line applications, travel time is the main parameter of road performance which can be the main consideration for evaluation and planning of transportation policy, and also to assess the accuracy of transportation modeling. While in on-line application travel time is main information for road users to define their travel behavior. Due to the important of travel time, therefore accurate estimation/prediction of travel time is essential. In order to fulfill it, this research analyzed the accuracy of Instantaneous and Time Slice model, and also evaluate the validity of Time mean speed and Space mean speed in mixed traffic condition. There is not much difference in travel time estimation error between models. The travel time estimation was larger than the actual travel time by floating car. It was also found that the error occurred on time mean speed are less than the space mean speed.

scholarly journals Method of modelling operation and maintenance processes in public transport systems using a certain class of stochastic processes

2021 ◽  
Vol 332 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Bogdan Landowski
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Homogeneous Markov Process ◽  
City Bus ◽  
Operation And Maintenance ◽  
Finite Set ◽  
Bus Transport

The study presents a method for application of the theory Markov homogenous processes for modeling of the process of vehicle operational state changes characterized by exponential distribution of their duration time. A model of operation and maintenance of vehicles used in the research object has been developed. The research object is a city bus transport system situated in the analyzed agglomeration. Stochastic process {X(t), t = 0} is a mathematical model of the process of operation and maintenance of public transport buses. The analyzed stochastic process {X(t),t = 0} has a finite phase space S, S={S1, S2, ..., Sn}. It was assumed that operation of the model is to be described by the homogeneous Markov process {X(t) : t ? R+} with a finite set of S states. The states of the analyzed stochastic process correspond to the operational states distinguished for a bus. A hypothetical computing model was built in order to illustrate the discussion and present a method for application of the developed model. The parameters of the model were estimated based on the analysis of initial results of experimental tests conducted in a real bus transport system.

Value of Travel Time for Public Transport Passenger in Urban and Intercity Trip

2016 ◽  
Vol 845 ◽  
pp. 408-415
Author(s):  
Amirotul M.H. Mahmudah ◽  
Djoko Sarwono ◽  
R.I. Pramesty ◽  
P.S. Rahina
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
The Public ◽  
Trip Purpose ◽  
Time Value ◽  
Study Results

Travel time value of public transport passengers is one of important variables in decision making about transport policy. Giving subsidy for public transport and allocate it to the right passenger will result in more benefits for the passenger of public transport. And as an effect it will increase the number of passengers then increase the public transport usage. As a result, it will reduce the number of private car usage which will reduce the air pollution and oil consumption and finally support sustainability transport. In this study, Travel time value based on questionnaire data, which is designed with stated preference with route choice approach. The multiple linear regression model is used to analyzed factors that influence public transport values of travel time, and traveler's income and trip purpose are introduced as categories. The study results indicate, in general, travel time value of regional trips is higher than urban travel. In Urban trip, travel time values for school is higher than values for work and other travels, while, for intercity travel, time value for work are higher than school and other travels. It can be comprehended since in this study the passenger of the urban trip who the travel purpose is work has low income. In common, when the personal income increase the travel time value also increase. But within this study, the public transport passengers who have no income consist of students, and their school regulations give hard punishment when their students come late. Based on that, the passenger with no income their travel time value is higher than the passengers have the lowest income.

THE IMPACT OF THE KYIV TRANSPORT SYSTEM ON CITIZENS LIFE AND MOBILITY

2017 ◽  
pp. 94-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Dronova ◽  
E. Boklag
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Alternative Fuels ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Difficult Situation ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Vital Functions ◽  
The Impact

The features of the socio-geographic research of urban transport systems impact on the people vital functions are disclosed in this paper. The indicators of transport networks development and current requirements for public transport are analyzed. It is revealed that a key concept of the investigation of transport impact on the population is accessibility. Accessibility is defined as the ability of individual to access to certain centers or services. It involves such aspects as services availability and quality, travel time, cost and effort of movement in space. Article emphasizes that the indigents suffer the cumulative effect of poor transport accessibility, because of their habitats in low-price neighborhoods are often located far from the places of employment or services. The high cost of transportation and required high travel efforts restricts mobility. The map of travel time accessibility to the Kyiv center by public transport was created using the isochronous method. The analysis of this map allows identifying the disparities in the development of the transport network. In some areas a very low accessibility can be revealed due to lack of access roads, land forms complexity, individual housing system, the airport location, railway lines with insufficient number of bridges etc. Particularly difficult situation is typical for such areas as Darnytskyi Railway Carriage Repair Plant region, Juliani, Troyeshchyna and Borschagivka. The average daily passenger traffic flow of the stations of three subway lines in Kiev was analyzed. The maximum and minimum loads and factors that affect them are considered. It is revealed in the research that Kiev transport system has a low level of availability, safety, environmental friendliness and comfort and not enough advantageous for persons with disabilities. The excessive level of automobilization in Kiev can be considered as the evidence of imperfection and inconvenience of the public transport there. From the other hand the motorized vehicles are a factor that displaces public transport from the urban transport system and prevent its development. The priority measures for the improvement of transport situation in Ukraine capital are outlined. They include solving the problem of Dnipro river bridges congestion; enhancement the accessibility of areas cut off by railways in the way of expanding the network of overpasses; construction of the new modes of high-speed light-rail transit; adoption of the traffic automated management system; development and encouragement of the use of environmentally sound forms of transport (vehicles powered by electricity or alternative fuels, etc.).

Infoconnectivity: The value of certainty and uncertainty for interconnected transport networks

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-90
Author(s):  
Hermann Knoflacher
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Travel Time Estimation ◽  
Transport Networks ◽  
Time Saving ◽  
A Value ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
Body Energy

Human behavior regarding transport depends on travel time estimation and not on measured travel times. Travel time is dependent on human body energy consumption for diff erent activities, which has been studied by the author over the last 30 years. Uncertainty can enhance time perception up to a factor of 5 compared to measured time, dependent on the certainty or uncertainty of the information system. Quantitative analysis has shown that information improvements at interchanges of transport systems can have a value equal to or even greater than time saving produced by expensive, huge infrastructure projects. The paper will present empirical results from studies over the last 40 years and the theoretical background.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Transport Context Situation and Culture on Mode Choice

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Loyola ◽  
Yoram Shiftan ◽  
Haim Aviram ◽  
Hector Monterde-i-Bort
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Cultural Comparison ◽  
Cross Cultural Comparison ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Bus Transport

Arrival on time when reaching a trip destination is perceived differently by different communities, but the need to arrive at the desired time is essential. This study conducted a cross-cultural comparison of the waiting time reliability of public bus transport systems in three cities in three different countries: Haifa, Israel; Quito, Ecuador; and Valencia, Spain. The objective of the study was to understand and compare the importance of reliable public transport for university students attending classes in these diverse locations. A stated preference survey was conducted that considered the local fares and current travel times for each community. A logit model was designed to detect the importance of the waiting time reliability of bus timing. The values of time and value of reliability were estimated for each location, and the results were compared. The study established that reliability is, in fact, one of the important characteristics when choosing a travel mode (along with cost and travel time) across all of these diverse communities. The results showed that in all of the samples, the Value of Reliability (VOR) late was much higher than the Value of Reliability (VOR) early. Due to the differences between the transportation systems of the distinct countries, this study did not cover all possible transportation variables. An in-depth study, covering other variables, should be undertaken in the future.

scholarly journals Public transport route planning in the stochastic network based on the user individual preferences

2019 ◽  
pp. 66-71
Author(s):  
A A Borodinov ◽  
A S Yumaganov ◽  
A A Agafonov
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Stochastic Network ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Dijkstra's Algorithm ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Planning Algorithm

Nowadays transport systems becomes more and more complex. Therefore, passengers have difficulty with route planning due to the variety of possible ways to get from the starting point to the destination one. Since the travel time often not considered as single and main criteria by passengers, it is important to take into account their own preferences which may be very different. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic route planning algorithm, which considers the user individual preferences. This method is based on the modified Dijkstra’s algorithm. The proposed algorithm is tested using real public transport dataset obtained from the transportation network of Samara, Russia.

scholarly journals Forecasting of urban buses dwelling time at stops

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-56
Author(s):  
Mykola Zhuk ◽  
◽  
Volodymyr Kovalyshyn ◽  
Volodymyr Hilevych ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Intelligent Transport Systems ◽  
Dwelling Time ◽  
Intelligent Transport ◽  
Harmful Emissions ◽  
Modern Methods ◽  
Account Information ◽  
Urban Conditions

Intelligent Transport Systems in urban conditions is one of the solutions to reduce congestion of vehicles and the amount of harmful emissions. An important component of ITS is the assessment of the duration of a public transport trip. It is necessary to focus on the study of the duration of the bus (the duration of traffic between stops and the dwelling time). In this paper, the authors focused on determining the dependence of the duration of buses at stops depending on the demand of passengers. The dwelling time of buses at stops is not considered independent of the duration of the journey. The duration of the bus is the periods of time when the buses wait at the stops, and the travel time, which is the duration of the bus between each two stops. The study was conducted on the bus route #3A in Lviv. To determine the dwelling time of the bus at stops, it is necessary to take into account information about passengers and the trajectory of buses. The obtained data can increase the accuracy of forecasting in different traffic situations in comparison with the most modern methods.

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