scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Prediksi Jumlah Penumpang Angkutan Massal Bus Rapid Transit Kota Padang

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaliq Alfikrizal ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Bus Rapid Transit ◽  
Rapid Transit ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
High Level

Bus Rapid Transit is a system of bus facilities, services and comfort which is used to increase speed and reliability and is integrated with a strong transit identity through high quality services. Trans Padang is a land transportation based on Bus Rapid Transit in Padang City which is managed by the Transportation Agency which started operating in January 2014 with a total bus fleet of 10 units on the Lubuk Buaya-Pasar Raya Padang route. Currently it has 2 corridors operating out of 6 corridors designed. This study aims to predict the number of Bus Rapid Transit passengers in Padang City and determine the level of accuracy of simulation data with real data using the Monte Carlo method. The data used to predict the number of passengers is data on the number of passengers from January 2017 to December 2019. From the simulations carried out, simulated accuracy is obtained for predicting the number of passengers with an average accuracy of above 80%. Based on a fairly high level of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method to predict the number of Bus Rapid Transit passengers in Padang City is considered to be able to predict the number of passengers in the following year.

scholarly journals Akurasi dalam Memprediksi Penetapan Besaran Anggaran Proposal Pendapatan dan Belanja Universitas Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-66
Author(s):  
Yogo Turnandes ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Community Service ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Service Activities ◽  
High Level ◽  
The University

The Institute for Research and Community Service at the University of Lancang Kuning has the mandate in research and service activities which are the two dharmas of the Tri Dharma of Higher Education. The purpose of this study is to predict the determination of the budget amount for the University Income and Expenditure Budget (APBU) proposal approved at LPPM Unilak for the following year. Thus, it will make it easier for the LPPM leadership to make decisions on the acceptance of APBU proposals that are approved quickly and optimally. The data used in this research is APBU research and service proposal data approved in 2018 to 2020 which is processed using the monte carlo method. The APBU proposal budget prediction will be carried out every year. Based on the results of tests that have been carried out with the monte carlo method, it is found that the system used to predict the amount of APBU proposal budget approved in 2019 with an average accuracy of 84% and in 2020 with an average accuracy of 73%. Then with a fairly high level of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method is considered to be able to predict the amount of the APBU proposal budget that is approved by each faculty each year.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Pendapatan Advertising

2020 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Beni Mulyana Putra ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Advertising Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
The Right ◽  
High Level

Fulfilling consumer needs is the goal of every business. Owned business capital will affect the readiness to serve consumer demand. The purpose of this study is to predict the level of advertising revenue at Vand Advertising Printing in order to facilitate business owners in preparing business strategies quickly and optimally. This research data is income data from January 2017 to December 2019 which is modeled using the Monte Carlo method. Income level prediction will be carried out annually. Based on the results of the tests that have been done, it is found that the system used to predict the level of advertising revenue with an average accuracy of 90%. The high level of accuracy means that the application of the Monte Carlo method is considered able to predict the level of advertising revenue each year. So that it can make it easier for business owners to choose the right business strategy to increase advertising revenue.

scholarly journals Prediksi Tingkat Pemahaman Siswa terhadap Data Nominatif Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 90-95
Author(s):  
Lc Granadi Suhaidir ◽  
S Sumijan ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Trial Data ◽  
Manual Search ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Work Training ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
The City

Kerinci Regency which was established on November 10, 1957 from the results of the division of 3 provinces, namely West Sumatra Province, Riau Province, Jambi Province. The district which is nicknamed the City of Sakti Alam Kerinci has a population of 253,258 people with an area of ​​3,808 km and consists of 16 sub-districts. So that training, technology, and improving Maunisa Resources are needed in various aspects of Kerinci society. Determine the level of accuracy of the Monte Carlo method simulation between the simulation results and the real data. In this study, the main data used were data for 2017, 2018 and 2019. The variable used in this study was the frequency of student scores in participating in learning. The value data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method assisted by Microsoft Excel for manual search. Student grade data for 2017 is used as trial data to predict in 2018, data for 2018 is used as trial data to predict the number of 2019, and data for 2019 will be used to predict the number in 2020 later. Where the highest prediction result is 96% where there are several competencies that have the same value. So that the average resulting from the predicted accuracy is 95% of the 7 competencies. The test results have clearly formed the boundaries. With an accuracy rate of 95%, it can be recommended to help the UPTD Kerinci District Work Training Center in predicting the level of understanding of students.

scholarly journals Application of the Monte-Carlo Method to the Description of the Dynamics of the Spread of Salvo Pollution Complicated by Adsorption

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serghei Travin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Specific Adsorption ◽  
Underlying Surface ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Kinetic Curves ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The possibilities of application of the Monte-Carlo method for simulating the consequences of pollutants emissions with specific adsorption on the underlying surface were considered. Effective methods of obtaining kinetic curves for the concentration of a pollutant for a selected square on the field and constructing contamination profiles for a specified time are analysed. The estimation of the necessary parameters of the model for obtaining high-quality kinetic curves was performed and recommendations for their optimization are given. Specific fronts for the spot propagation were obtained and visualised.

scholarly journals Pemodelan dan Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Penjualan Peralatan Motor (Studi Kasus : Bengkel AMI Motor)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wita Siska Moza ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Web Based System

AMI Motor shop is a various shop that is engaged in sales by selling various motorcycle equipment. Sales transactions vary in stores, but almost all products have increased and decreased, so it is necessary to know how the product data is related to consumer demand. Sales simulation is an estimate that can provide benefits in making decisions to increase sales revenue. The purpose of this study is to predict what motorcycle equipment stock should be increased and decreased in sales in the following year. The data used is motor equipment sales data in 2018 and 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. In speeding up data processing, this system is applied to a web-based system using the PHP (Hypertext Processor) programming language. Based on the results of testing prediction levels of motorcycle equipment sales, average accuracy is 95,92%, making it easier for company leaders to make decisions on developing business strategies to increase sales revenue.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Produk HPAI

2020 ◽  
pp. 86-91
Author(s):  
Rahmatia Wulan Dari ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Product Sales

Predicting sales is an important aspect of sales development. Sales prediction simulation is an estimate about calculating the level of product sales in a certain period. The research objective was to predict the level of sales of HPAI products at HNI Halal Mart. The data used is sales data for HPAI products from 2017 to 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the results of testing the prediction of the sales level of HPAI products, an average accuracy of 84,5% is obtained, making it easier in the decision making process and helping in choosing a good business strategy.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Lonjakan Penumpang (Studi Kasus di PT. Tri Arga Travel)

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-97
Author(s):  
Dina Mardiati ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Transportation Services ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Linear Congruential Generator ◽  
High Level ◽  
Linear Congruential ◽  
A Company

Tri Arga Travel is a company engaged in transportation services. The company really prioritizes the quality of service to consumers. So that on holidays there is usually a surge in passengers that cannot be predicted by the company. This greatly affects service to passengers. The purpose of this research is to predict the surge rate of PT. Tri Arga Travel, making it easier for the leadership of PT. Tri Arga Travel to take a policy when there is a surge in passengers in the future. The data used in this study is data on the number of passengers in 2017, 2018, and 2019 with the aim of padang-perawang. Then, the data is processed using the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is a simulation method that uses random numbers obtained from the Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) to predict the rate of passenger spike in the following year by utilizing the previous year's passenger data. The results obtained from testing the Monte Carlo simulation can be seen that in July it is predicted that there will be a surge in passengers with an average level of accuracy of 86.74%. With a fairly high level of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method can be used as a recommendation to predict the level of passenger spikes and also help in improving services to prospective passengers of PT. Tri Arga Travel.

scholarly journals Prediksi Optimal dalam Produksi Bata Merah Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
Hendro Zalmadani ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
High Degree

The availability of red bricks on the market is a problem that must be addressed. Because the availability of red brick affects sales revenue. The purpose of this research in the Small and Medium Micro Business of the Red Brick City of Pariaman is to predict the production of red bricks to find out income and find out the next production. So this research can make it easier for business owners to find out how much it will cost for the next production cost. The data used in this study are production data from 2017 to 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the results of production prediction testing that has been done, it is found that the average accuracy is 90%. With the results of a high degree of accuracy, the application of the monte carlo method is considered to be able to predict production annually. Making it easier for business owners to determine the costs incurred in the next production process.

scholarly journals Prediksi Tingkat Pemahaman Siswa terhadap Data Nominatif Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 90-95
Author(s):  
Lc Granadi Suhaidir ◽  
S Sumijan ◽  
Y Yuhandri
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Trial Data ◽  
Manual Search ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Work Training ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
The City

Kerinci Regency which was established on November 10, 1957 from the results of the division of 3 provinces, namely West Sumatra Province, Riau Province, Jambi Province. The district which is nicknamed the City of Sakti Alam Kerinci has a population of 253,258 people with an area of ​​3,808 km and consists of 16 sub-districts. So that training, technology, and improving Maunisa Resources are needed in various aspects of Kerinci society. Determine the level of accuracy of the Monte Carlo method simulation between the simulation results and the real data. In this study, the main data used were data for 2017, 2018 and 2019. The variable used in this study was the frequency of student scores in participating in learning. The value data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method assisted by Microsoft Excel for manual search. Student grade data for 2017 is used as trial data to predict in 2018, data for 2018 is used as trial data to predict the number of 2019, and data for 2019 will be used to predict the number in 2020 later. Where the highest prediction result is 96% where there are several competencies that have the same value. So that the average resulting from the predicted accuracy is 95% of the 7 competencies. The test results have clearly formed the boundaries. With an accuracy rate of 95%, it can be recommended to help the UPTD Kerinci District Work Training Center in predicting the level of understanding of students.

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