Is Now the Time for Modern Monetary Theory or Permanent Monetary Finance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-36
Author(s):  
Olaf Schlotmann
Keyword(s):  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
Key Aspects

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, G7 central banks have launched asset purchase programs in anticipation of an increase in government bond offerings to finance ballooning fiscal deficits. As the volume of government bonds owned by private investors is not expected to rise during the current crisis, these programs will amount to a monetization of large additional debt. The idea that the government sells bonds to the central bank or issues money by literally spending it into existence also plays a key role in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the concept of helicopter money and the idea of permanent monetary finance. This article subjects key aspects of MMT to critical examination and shows, using MMT’s own balance sheet analysis, that the theory is almost always contradicted by the actual workings of the modern credit economy. In fact, MMT seems to be a collection of prescriptive ideas that dictate how things should function as opposed to how they actually do.

scholarly journals A Real Bonds Doctrine

2021 ◽  
pp. 2633190X2098441
Author(s):  
Romar Correa
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Public Firms ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Robotics

Two assumptions drive our policy construct. First, the task of implementing a Green New Deal will necessarily fall on the government. Second, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have meant a reduction in labour in the production process. The connection between the two is production by public firms, and the financial instrument is the government bond. The Real Bills doctrine meant the tracking of credit disbursed by commercial and central banks with the returns realized by borrowing firms. The horizon was finite. In the case of our bond, the issuer is the government, and the horizon is infinite. Balance sheet accounts with the central bank are maintained. We write down a model with no labour. Households lend to the government, which, in turn, lends to firms to purchase their capital inputs. Households earn returns from their holdings of the government bond. The central bank mediates the accounts. JEL Classification: E16, E58, E64

scholarly journals Spatio‑Temporal Analysis of the Impact of Credit Rating Agency Announcements on the Government Bond Yield in the World in the Period of 2008–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 133-150
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Szulc ◽  
Dagna Wleklińska
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Spatial Panel Data Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatial Panel Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The paper concerns the impact of announcements published by rating agencies on the government bond yield in selected countries of the world. Ratings assigned to debt securities on account of the issuer’s financial standing are an important determinant of their yield. Factors that affect the rate of return of a given traded debt, in addition to idiosyncratic factors, i.e. those related to the issuer’s economy, and global factors, also include the ratings of connected countries. Moreover, empirical studies carried out in this area prove that the relationship is asymmetrical. This allows us to suppose that favourable information concerning the improvement of government bond ratings is not reflected in the decrease in their yield. The aim of the paper is the analysis of interactions between the yields of 10‑year government bonds issued by selected economies. A subject that is of particular interest is the evaluation of the impact of positive and negative changes in credit rating assessments made by international agencies on the yield of bonds issued by other economies than the country concerned in the assessment. The spatial scope of the analysis concerns 10‑year government bonds issued by 40 countries in the period of 2008-2017. In the study, dynamic spatial models for pooled time series and cross‑sectional data and dynamic spatial panel data models were used.

scholarly journals Analysis of government bonds and prediction of their development after the pandemic caused by COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 01044
Author(s):  
Petr Suler ◽  
Vaclav Polan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Government

This paper describes the current state of the government bond market and predicts the future development of government bond yields using the yield curve to bond maturity, spot yield curve, credit rating and simple prediction. The ongoing economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is changing the lives of many people. In order for each individual country to help its households, prevent mass job lay-offs and high mortality, their fiscal budget deficits are growing to unexpected heights. The aim of this paper is to analyse government bonds as one of the tools that can help both the state and individual households at this time. Government bond yields are analysed and compared with other countries based on the development of government bonds using credit ratings, yield curves to maturity, spot yield curves and simple historical development of government bonds from the previous economic crisis in 2008. Based on the results, we conclude that countries severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent mortality, such as Italy, have a relatively stable yield. In contrast, for countries such as the Czech Republic and South Korea, yields to maturity at both ends are relatively declining.

Developing the Government Bond Market in South Korea: History, Challenges, and Implications for Asian Countries

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Kang ◽  
Geena Kim ◽  
Changyong Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Government

The government-led development of South Korea's government bond market after the Asian financial crisis provides a case study for building local bond markets in Asia. Two steps considered particularly effective at enhancing the liquidity of the market were the reopening system and the mandatory electronic exchange trading system for benchmark issues. This study uses the micro bondtrading data of the Korea Stock Exchange to determine how these efforts enhanced the government bond market. It also analyzes a long-term challenge: with the fiscal deficit projected to return to balance, the supply of outstanding government bonds is likely to decline, reducing the overall supply of benchmark issues.

scholarly journals A Study on Impact of Liquidity on Returns of Four Government Bonds in the Context of Indian Bond Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (S1) ◽  
pp. 71-74
Author(s):  
Hima Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Market Segment ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

A well-developed capital market consists of equity and bond market. A sound bond market with a significant role played by the Government bond market segment is considered to be important for an efficient capital market and raising for developmental ventures. Bonds are issued and sold to the public for funds. Bonds are interest bearing debt certificates. This study is conducted in order to analyze the impact of liquidity on return of government securities in the context of Indian bond market.

scholarly journals The Innovation of Government Bonds in the Growth of an Emergent Capital Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Philip Olasupo Alege
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Market ◽  
The Capital Market

The growth of an emerging capital market is necessary and requires all available resources and inputs from various sources to realize this objective. Several debates on government bonds’ contribution to Nigeria’s capital market developmental growth have ensued but have not triggered comprehensive studies in this area. The present research work seeks to close the breach by probing the impact of government bonds on developing the capital market in Nigeria from 2003–2019. We employ total market capitalization as the response variable to proxy the capital market, while various government bonds serve as the independent variables. The inflation rate moderates the predictor components. The research uses multiple regression technique to assess the explanatory variables’ impact on the total market capitalization. At the same time, diagnostic tests help guarantee the normality of the regression model’s data distribution and appropriateness. The findings reveal that the Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) bond is statistically significant and positive in influencing Nigeria’s capital market growth. The other predictor variables are not found significant in this study. The study suggests that the Government should improve on the government bonds’ coupon, while still upholding the none default norm in paying interest and refunding principal to investors when due.

scholarly journals Impact of strategic management, corporate social responsibility on firm performance in the post mandate period: evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nayan Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Strategic Management ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Brand Building ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Corporate Social

AbstractCorporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is like a chameleon, that changes its colour according to the context it is in. In the developed economy, it takes the form of sustainability and/ or philanthropy, whereas, in emerging economies, it speaks the language of religious, political and/ or mandated CSR. India, in recent times came into the limelight with its mandated CSR policy that was incorporated into its Companies Act 2013, which became operational from the financial year 2014 - 2015. Mandated CSR is thus a new area of study that is based on the philosophy that ‘CSR should contribute to the national agenda in emerging economies,’ under some statutory guidelines as laid down by the Government.But, business houses, do look for maximising its profit. Profit can be financial and/ or non-financial. If not money, then at least the effort must be compensated with reputation, image, that helps in brand building! And, to have this as an objective, their efforts should be strategic! But, does all strategies work? With these questions and conceptual thinking, this empirical research aims to identify the key aspects of Strategic Management, CSR and Firm Performance and establish relationship between them; apart from developing a valid and reliable scale to do so. This is indeed one of the first researches and documentations done among the large Indian firms in India immediately in the post mandate period and thus forms a base for understanding the CSR dynamics in the years to come.

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

scholarly journals The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-429
Author(s):  
Robert N. McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Exorbitant Privilege ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Dollar Debt ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Since the late 1950s, the rest of the world has come to use the dollar to an extent that justifies speaking of the dollar’s global domain. The rest of the world denominates much debt in U.S. dollars, extending U.S. monetary policy’s sway. In addition, in outstanding foreign exchange deals, the rest of the world has undertaken to pay still more in U.S. dollars: off-balance-sheet dollar debts buried in footnotes. Consistent with the scale of dollar debt, most of the world economic activity takes place in countries with currencies tied to or relatively stable against the dollar, forming a dollar zone much larger than the euro zone. Even though the dollar assets of the world (minus the United States) exceed dollar liabilities, corporate sector dollar debts seem to make dollar appreciation akin to a global tightening of credit. Since the 1960s, claims that the dollar’s global role suffers from instability and confers great benefits on the U.S. economy have attracted much support. However, evidence that demand for dollars from official reserve managers forces unsustainable U.S. current account or fiscal deficits is not strong. The so-called exorbitant privilege is small or shared. In 2008 and again in 2020, the Federal Reserve demonstrated a willingness and capacity to backstop the global domain of the dollar. Politics could constrain the Fed’s ability to backstop the growing share of the domain of the dollar accounted for by countries that are not on such friendly terms with the U.S.

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