Die Auswirkungen der Coronapandemie auf die finanzielle Lage unterschiedlicher Gruppen von mittelständischen Unternehmen und deren Folgen für den Kreditzugang

2021 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-48
Author(s):  
Fritzi Köhler-Geib ◽  
Volker Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Risk Sensitivity ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Small Companies ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Starting Position ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

Die Coronapandemie hat sichtbare Spuren bei der Liquiditätssituation und den Eigenkapitalquoten mittelständischer Unternehmen hinterlassen. Vor dem Hintergrund einer guten Ausgangslage und insgesamt einer Stabilisierung der Lage im Krisenverlauf ist eine Überschuldung des Unternehmenssektors in der Breite jedoch unwahrscheinlich. Die Auswirkungen betreffen den gesamten Mittelstand jedoch nicht einheitlich, sondern treten verstärkt in einzelnen Segmenten auf, vor allem bei kleinen Unternehmen, in bestimmten Wirtschaftszweigen, auslandsaktiven Unternehmen und Unternehmen mit schon vor Corona schwächerer Bonität. Dies belastet das Kreditklima: Die Risikosensitivität von Kreditinstituten nimmt zu. Die von der Coronakrise betroffenen Unternehmenssegmente sehen sich häufiger höheren Anforderungen bei den Kreditsicherheiten sowie Zinserhöhungen gegenüber, wenn auch insgesamt der Kreditkanal während der Krise bisher aufgrund von Geld- und Fiskalpolitischen Maßnahmen offen geblieben ist, einen Beitrag zur Stabilisierung geleistet hat, und diese Effekte weniger stark als in der Finanzkrise 2008/09 sind. The Corona pandemic has left visible traces on the liquidity situation and equity ratios of medium-sized companies. Against the background of a good starting position and an overall stabilisation of the situation in the course of the crisis, over-indebtedness of the corporate sector across the board is unlikely. However, the effects do not affect the entire SME sector uniformly, but occur more strongly in specific segments, especially among small companies, in certain economic sectors, foreign-active companies and companies that already had a weaker credit rating before Corona. This weighs on the credit climate: the risk sensitivity of credit institutions is increasing. The company segments affected by the Corona crisis are more frequently faced with higher requirements for loan collateral as well as interest rate increases, even if overall the credit channel has remained open during the crisis so far due to monetary and fiscal policy measures, has made a contribution to stabilisation, and these effects are less strong than in the financial crisis of 2008/09.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Effects of the Economic Policy in Serbia by the Mundell-Fleming Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Zoran Grubišić ◽  
Sandra Kamenković
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Starting Position ◽  
Global Economic Crisis ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractThe global economic crisis has affected the whole world, including Serbia. Countries with different degrees of development reacted with different measures of economic policy, both monetary as well as fiscal. Economic authorities in Serbia have encountered certain limiting factors in the selection of measures, first of all taking into account the unfinished transition process. This paper will examine whether the applied monetary and fiscal policy in Serbia is adequate according to the position which Serbia occupies by the Mundell-Fleming model, as well as to identify the starting position for future economic policy measures.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices in China: An Application of TVP-VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weina Cai ◽  
Sen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The boom of housing market in China in recent years has attracted great concerns from all over the world. How monetary policy affects house prices in China becomes an essential topic. This paper studies the time-varying effects of monetary policy on house prices in China during 2005.7-2017.10, by using a time-varying parameter VAR model. This paper obtains three interesting results. First, there are time-varying features of the responses of house prices to monetary policy shocks half-year and 1-year ahead, no matter through interest rate channel or through credit channel. Second, interest rate channel and credit channel have been enhanced since financial crisis in 2008. Third, the responses of nominal house prices to monetary policy in China are mainly driven by the responses of real house prices, instead of inflation. Finally, this paper gives proper suggestions for each finding respectively to central bank in China.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between NPLs and Real Economy: Evidence from the Mongolian Banking System

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155
Author(s):  
Enkhzaya Demid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Credit Quality ◽  
Loan Supply ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The paper analyses the relationship between the banks’ credit risk and macroeconomic conditions by addressing the following questions; (i) How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to lending risk depending on the ban-specific features? (ii) Are the effects of macroeconomic shocks different across the loan portfolios in various economic sectors? Unlike the common assumption in the literature, the empirical analysis considers banks’ heterogeneity and diversification across borrowers. It employs heterogeneous panel SVARs and standard SVAR models on a dataset from 2002. Q1 to 2019.Q1. The results suggest that the deterioration in credit quality is affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, with substantial heterogeneity in the magnitudes and timing in terms of the type of loans in various business sectors and bank characteristics. In particular, we find strong evidence of cyclical sensitivity of loan quality, and about 1/4 of banks’ NPLs increases stronger in response to the shocks to growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and profitability. The highly profitable banks tend to less engage in excessive risk-taking, resulting in lower NPLs, whereas the relation of asset size to NPLs is not significant for the sample. A growth shock plays a prominent role in explaining the variation of NPLs for the trade and mining sectors. Similarly, the loan supply shock is the main determinant for the construction sector’s NPLs, while the exchange rate shock is the most responsible for the manufacturing sector. The interest rate shock and exchange rate shock are the most effective factors on NPLs of consumer loans. Finally, the feedback effect of NPLs shows that deterioration of credit quality slows down economic growth.

scholarly journals Komparasi Jalur Moneter untuk Stabilitas Harga Dalam Kerangka Inflation Targeting Framework (Studi kasus pada interest rate, exchange rate dan credit channel)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Setyo Tri Wahyudi ◽  
Rinny Apriliany Zakaria ◽  
Nurul Badriyah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
The Right

The monetary policy transmission mechanism has many ways in influencing inflation. This method became known as the monetary path. The use of appropriate channels in monetary policy will affect whether or not the objectives of the monetary policy are achieved. This study aims to determine which monetary path is appropriate for Indonesia, which is a developing country with an open economic system. The data used are secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia for the period 2005 to 2016. The research variables include inflation, BI-rate, credit interest rates (SBB), gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, bank reserve (BBR), and the amount of credit extended. This study focuses on the path of interest rates, exchange rates and bank credit using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the right monetary path for Indonesia is the credit channel. This is because the value of the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient on the ECM model shows that the coefficient of the credit channel is smaller than the interest rate and exchange rate channel, which means that the imbalance that occurs can be resolved more quickly with the credit channel.

scholarly journals On a New Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Potential Credit Rating Change and Stochastic Interest Rate

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Ming Yin ◽  
Jin Liang ◽  
Yuan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rate ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
New Model ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rating Change

In this paper, we consider a new corporate bond-pricing model with credit-rating migration risks and a stochastic interest rate. In the new model, the criterion for rating change is based on a predetermined ratio of the corporation’s total asset and debt. Moreover, the rating changes are allowed to happen a finite number of times during the life-span of the bond. The volatility of a corporate bond price may have a jump when a credit rating for the bond is changed. Moreover, the volatility of the bond is also assumed to depend on the interest rate. This new model improves the previous existing bond models in which the rating change is only allowed to occur once with an interest-dependent volatility or multi-ratings with constant interest rate. By using a Feynman-Kac formula, we obtain a free boundary problem. Global existence and uniqueness are established when the interest rate follows a Vasicek’s stochastic process. Calibration of the model parameters and some numerical calculations are shown.

The effects of bond ratings on income inequality in the developing world

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Glen Biglaiser ◽  
Ronald McGauvran
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Bond Ratings ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Neoliberal Reforms ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
The Rich

Abstract Although the effects of globalization on income inequality has received much attention, missing from the discussion is the role played by credit rating agencies (CRAs) on income inequality. Using a sample of seventy developing countries from 1990–2015, we find that bond ratings have significant, yet indirect, effects on income inequality. We see that interest rate spreads, and to a lesser degree tax, labor, and monetary policies, mediate the relationship between ratings and income inequality. Specifically, developing countries receiving bond downgrades observe a rise in interest rate spreads. Countries with higher interest rate spreads tend to have less available credit, which reduces output and production, promoting surplus labor and its consequences for those at the bottom of the income distribution. Bond downgrades also compel developing countries to pursue neoliberal reforms, endorsed by the CRAs, in an attempt to lift their ratings. The effects of tax, labor, and monetary policies, in particular, appear to enlarge disparities between the rich and the poor. Our research helps to identify the mechanism by which CRAs and globalization, more generally, impact wealth disparities in the developing world.

scholarly journals Sharing the Burden: Monetary and Fiscal Responses to a World Liquidity Trap

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cook ◽  
Michael B Devereux
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Initial Shock ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Zero Bound

This paper analyzes optimal policy responses to a global liquidity trap. The key feature of this environment is that relative prices respond perversely. A fall in demand in one country causes an appreciation of its terms of trade, exacerbating the initial shock. At the zero bound, this country cannot counter this shock. Then it may be optimal for the partner country to raise interest rates. The partner may set a positive policy interest rate, even though its “natural interest rate” is below zero. An optimal policy response requires a mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. (JEL E12, E32, E44, E52, E62, F44, G01)

The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Tillmann
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Interest Rate Differentials

Abstract With persistence in macroeconomic variables two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose relative importance varies over time. Both aspects have opposite implications for the relation between fundamentals and credibility. Hence, the effect of policy measures on interest rate differentials becomes ambiguous. In this paper a Markov-switching VAR that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS currencies. Regime-dependent impulse response functions reveal substantial differences in the response of spreads to macroeconomic shocks across regimes.

scholarly journals Spanish non-financial corporations and the COVID pandemic: vulnerability, resilience and transformation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vicente Salas-Fumás
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Organizational Capital ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the Spanish non-financial corporations (NFC) to the shock from the COVID pandemic with consolidated income accounts data, and shows comparative labor productivity and endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, as indicators of their capabilities at the outset of the new digital transformation wave proposed by the next generation EU program. Design/methodology/approach The paper first describes the recent evolution (quarterly 2020 data) of the Spanish non-financial corporate sector (gross value added, labor cost, capital formation, profits) in the assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the sector to the shock of the COVID pandemic. Then second, it estimates a probit model to evaluate the EU country effects in the explanation of the different propensity firms in the European Company Survey database to adopt innovative management and organization practices. Findings In the Spring of 2020, the Spanish NFC were still recovering from the great recession (low resilience), and the severe contraction in value-added and profits of the corporate sector in the first three quarters of the year evidences its high vulnerability. The proved complementarity between organizational and information related assets implies that the low endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, could be a severe limitation for the advancement toward digitalization. Research limitations/implications The aggregate corporate sector data used in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of Spanish firms does not account for the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic across economic sectors (manufacturing and services, for example) and across firms (large versus small ones). Originality/value The paper complements the country-level analysis of the impact of the COVID pandemic in the Spanish economy with the analysis of the impact of the pandemic in the performance of the corporate sector. It provides one of the first analysis of the current endowment of organization capital of Spanish firms and highlights its relevance for productivity growth.

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