scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on energy prices and main macroeconomic indicators—evidence from China's energy market

Green Finance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 383-402
Author(s):  
Yilin Wu ◽  
◽  
Shiyu Ma ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

<abstract> <p>With the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world, the development of China's energy industry has been hampered. Although previous studies have shown the global influence of COVID-19 on energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, very few of them examined the impact on China independently, considering the special role of China in this pandemic and economy. In this study, we investigate the impact of the pandemic on several major China energy prices using the ARIMA-GARCH model. Combined with the Value-at-Risk (VaR) theory, we further explore the market risk, which indicates an increase in the tail risk of energy price volatility and the dramatic turbulence in energy markets. In addition, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is developed to analyze how the main macroeconomic indicators are affected when energy prices fluctuate. According to the model results, energy price fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 have a negative impact on economic growth and inflation, with a higher contribution to the latter changes. Based on the modeling analysis results, this paper makes constructive suggestions on how to stabilize energy prices and recover the economic development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> </abstract>

ENERGY IN A MODEL OF FIRM ENTRY

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-254
Author(s):  
Soma Patra
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

Nine out of the last ten recessions in the United States have been preceded by an increase in the price of oil as noted by Hamilton [Palgrave Dictionary of Economics]. Given the small share of energy in gross domestic product this phenomenon is difficult to explain using standard models. In this paper, I show that firm entry can be an important transmission and amplifying channel for energy price shocks. The results from the baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predict a drop in output that is two times the impact in a model without entry. The model also predicts an increase in energy prices would lead to a decline in real wages, investment, consumption, and return on investment. Additionally, using US firm level data, I demonstrate that a rise in energy prices has a negative impact on firm entry as predicted by the DSGE model. This lends further support toward endogenizing firm entry when analyzing the effects of energy price shocks.

scholarly journals Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Performance

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neşe Algan ◽  
Erhan İşcan ◽  
Duygu Serin Oktay ◽  
Duygu Kara
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Many

Last two decades witnessed increasingly volatile international markets with the many financial crises. Concurrently, volatility in energy prices and energy markets cause various adverse impacts on both national and world economies. Especially this volatility affected emerging markets and increased the fragility of the emerging economies. Because of the adverse impacts of this volatility, understanding the price behavior and impact of volatility of energy prices on economy became crucial for every economic agent in the economy including policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers. The relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic performance has been studied widely as a consequence its long term macroeconomic impacts to world economies. Differently, the aim of this study is analyzing the effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic indicators of Turkey. For that purpose, we employed a GARCH model to investigate effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic performance for Turkey from 2002 to 2016. We use various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators data for the period from January 2002 to December 2016, obtained from the IFS and CBRT-EDDS. By applying GARCH methodology to various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, we contribute to the understanding of price volatility in energy markets, and suggest policies that would be of use to policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Characteristics of Tourism Economy in the Republic of Tunisia

REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 224-245
Author(s):  
Marina A. Zhulina ◽  
Vyacheslav M. Kitsis ◽  
Svetlana V. Saraykina
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Comparative Method ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The Political ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Tourism Economy ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. Tourism is a dynamic, constantly developing sector of the economy. Tourism economy develops along with the society, recreation and tourism. The purpose of the article is to show the features of the impact of tourism on the national economy using the case of Tunisia. The experience of Tunisia is especially useful for the countries where beach recreation has developed and where the political situation has remained difficult for a long time (Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, etc.). Materials and Methods. The article is based on the statistical data provided by the World Tourism Organization, the World Data Atlas and open Internet sources. The study employed general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, synthesis, comparison, etc.) and special ones (the methods of mathematical statistics, the graphical method, the comparative method, etc.). Results. For the first time, the article has provided a fairly complete description of the macroeconomic indicators characterizing the level of development of international tourism in Tunisia. The article has analyzed the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourism, discussed the factors affecting the volume of international tourism, considered international tourism expenditures and revenues, which to a large extent have a positive or negative impact on the country’s balance of payments. The trends in the development of international tourism in Tunisia have been revealed and the problems facing the industry have been identified. Discussion and Conclusion. The research has revealed that tourism economy largely depends on the political and economic processes taking place in the country. The current level of macroeconomic indicators of tourism economy in Tunisia lags behind the 2008–2009 figures. The results of the study made it possible to assess the current state of international tourism and make a number of suggestions aimed at increasing the level of development of international tourism in the country. The results of the study can contribute to the development of a program aimed to boost tourism economy in Tunisia, one of the key tasks of which should be that of increasing performance at the macro-level.

scholarly journals The impact of urbanization and financial development on electricity intensity in China: Evidence from panel VAR approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 194 ◽  
pp. 03010
Author(s):  
Ruijun Duan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electricity Intensity

This paper aims at exploring the impact of urbanization and financial development on electricity intensity in China during the period 2004-2018. By employing a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, the study finds that the electricity intensity response to one standard deviation shock on urbanization shows a negative impact, and a positive shock to financial development initially increases electricity intensity and eventually decreases electricity intensity. Our analysis is important for policy makers for improving electricity efficiency planning and sustainable economic development policies.

scholarly journals An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Youwang Zhang ◽  
Chongguang Li ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007-2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.

scholarly journals Impact of dividend policy on stock price volatility and market value of the firm: evidence from Sri Lankan manufacturing companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
UGVDD Gunarathne ◽  
WAN Priyadarshanie ◽  
SMRK Samarakoon
Keyword(s):  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Dividend Yield ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
The Impact

The impact resulted from the dividend policy of a firm on the volatility of the market value of stocks is the major concern of this study, which is an issue bearing an utmost significance, when considering the objectives of a corporate. The focus of an entity should be aligned on the maximization of stock holders’ wealth and this necessitates the selection of an optimum dividend policy. The present study, thus, attempts to shed a light on the above fact within the Sri Lankan context. Data was collected from a sample of companies listed under the manufacturing sector of the Colombo Stock Exchange from year 2006 to 2014. The study occupied panel data regression model for analysis. The outcome revealed that the dividend yield of the current year has a negative impact on the share price volatility, while the dividend payout ratio of both the current and previous years has a positive impact. In addition, the impact of dividend yield is negative on the market value of the firm, where the dividend payout ratio of the current year is also depicts the same impact. The findings of the study reassure the findings of the previous researchers within the Sri Lankan context in case of the market value of the firm while being contrary in case of the share price volatility. Accordingly, the firms’ ability of utilizing the dividend policy as a mechanism of controlling the volatility of share prices is established. However, it will not be effective in altering the market value of the firm.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of the Performance of a Big and Open Economy: The Case of the U.S.

2018 ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
O. V. Zhuravliov ◽  
О. М. Simachova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The US economy is one of the richest and most diversified economies in the world and keeps its leadership in the global economy for the past 100 years. The United States is a global leader in computer technology, pharmaceuticals and the manufacture of medical, aerospace and military equipment. And although services make up about 80% of GDP, the US remains the second largest producer of industrial goods in the world and is a leader in research and development. President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016, promising a big gap with his predecessor’s regulatory, tax and trade policies. Therefore, the current socio-economic status of the USA and the possible ways of its development in the future are interesting for studying the impact on other economies, in particular, on the Ukrainian economy and the search for new and optimal ways of developing relations between the United States and Ukraine. Key macroeconomic indicators of the US economy in 2011–2018 are analyzed, demonstrating the influence of Donald Tramp’s new policy on changes in the indicators of the economy, the labor market, trade, etc., as well as possible ways of development in the coming years. The review of key macroeconomic indicators gives grounds for classifying the American economy as healthy one. Rates of GDP growth will remain in the range of 2 to 3%. These rates of growth in the world’s largest economy are callable to ensure a substantial increase in the global activity. But uncertainties in the politics may hinder global growth and have clearly negative impact on the investment growth in developed and developing economies.

The Impact of Video Gaming Terminals on Casinos and State and Local Tax Revenue

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-675
Author(s):  
Erin Hazel Phipps ◽  
Mark W. Nichols ◽  
Federico Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Casino Gambling ◽  
Video Gaming ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Past ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Impact

In 2012, Illinois passed legislation allowing video gaming terminals (VGTs) outside of casinos. This legislation was passed to increase tax revenues from gambling in a market that had seen decreases in revenues and admissions over the past 8 years. VGTs may substitute for casino gambling and have a negative impact on casino and tax revenue. Using ordinary least squares and vector autoregressive models, we find that casino slot revenues decrease by about 0.05 percent for each 1 percent increase in VGT revenues. Admissions decrease by about eleven people per VGT. A Granger causality test suggests causation is running from VGTs to admissions. Thus, there is substitution between VGTs and casino gambling but not so large as to reduce tax revenue. Overall tax revenue from gambling, both casino and VGT, has increased for Illinois. However, local communities where casinos are located have experienced declines in casino tax revenue that have exceeded the gains from VGT revenue.

The effect of weather on the European stock market

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (9) ◽  
pp. 943-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Sariannidis ◽  
Grigoris Giannarakis ◽  
Xanthi Partalidou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether weather variables can explain the stock return reaction on the Dow Jones Sustainability Europe Index by employing a number of macroeconomic indicators as control variables. Design/methodology/approach The authors incorporate the generalized autogressive conditional heteroskeasticity model in methodology for the period August 26, 2009 to May 30, 2014 using daily data. Findings The empirical results indicate that not only do changes in humidity and wind levels seem to affect positively the European stock market but changes in returns oil and gold prices as well. However, the results show that the volatility of the US dollar/Yen exchange rate and ten-year bond value exerts significant negative impact on companies’ stock returns. Originality/value This study adds to the international literature by documenting the impact of weather variables on socially responsible companies.

scholarly journals The impact of economic sanctions on the country's economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
S. Alikhani ◽  
I. P. Khominich
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Collective Response ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Target Country

Currently, sanctions are considered an important tool of international policy for maintaining security and collective response to violations of international order. At the same time, they are a factor of negative impact on the economic situation of the country, growth and production in the target country. Russia and Iran have been under sanctions from Western countries and their allies for many years and are experiencing economic problems in this regard. The article provides a characteristics and comparative analysis of economic sanctions against Russia and Iran, reveals their differences, assesses the impact of sanctions on their economic structure and financial sector. The paper shows that sanctions directly or indirectly affect the country's macroeconomic indicators and cause their decline. The authors give the substantiations for the negative impact of sanctions on the financial markets of Iran and Russia, including the banking and stock markets.

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