scholarly journals Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Performance

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neşe Algan ◽  
Erhan İşcan ◽  
Duygu Serin Oktay ◽  
Duygu Kara
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Many

Last two decades witnessed increasingly volatile international markets with the many financial crises. Concurrently, volatility in energy prices and energy markets cause various adverse impacts on both national and world economies. Especially this volatility affected emerging markets and increased the fragility of the emerging economies. Because of the adverse impacts of this volatility, understanding the price behavior and impact of volatility of energy prices on economy became crucial for every economic agent in the economy including policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers. The relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic performance has been studied widely as a consequence its long term macroeconomic impacts to world economies. Differently, the aim of this study is analyzing the effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic indicators of Turkey. For that purpose, we employed a GARCH model to investigate effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic performance for Turkey from 2002 to 2016. We use various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators data for the period from January 2002 to December 2016, obtained from the IFS and CBRT-EDDS. By applying GARCH methodology to various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, we contribute to the understanding of price volatility in energy markets, and suggest policies that would be of use to policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on energy prices and main macroeconomic indicators—evidence from China's energy market

Green Finance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 383-402
Author(s):  
Yilin Wu ◽  
◽  
Shiyu Ma ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

<abstract> <p>With the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world, the development of China's energy industry has been hampered. Although previous studies have shown the global influence of COVID-19 on energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, very few of them examined the impact on China independently, considering the special role of China in this pandemic and economy. In this study, we investigate the impact of the pandemic on several major China energy prices using the ARIMA-GARCH model. Combined with the Value-at-Risk (VaR) theory, we further explore the market risk, which indicates an increase in the tail risk of energy price volatility and the dramatic turbulence in energy markets. In addition, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is developed to analyze how the main macroeconomic indicators are affected when energy prices fluctuate. According to the model results, energy price fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 have a negative impact on economic growth and inflation, with a higher contribution to the latter changes. Based on the modeling analysis results, this paper makes constructive suggestions on how to stabilize energy prices and recover the economic development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> </abstract>

Delivering fuel poverty objectives within the context of globalised energy markets

2017 ◽  
pp. 85-102
Author(s):  
Carolyn Snell
Keyword(s):  
Lower Energy ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Efficiency Measures ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Energy Companies

This chapter explores claims made by policy makers in the UK that, despite having no control over global energy markets, existing policy protects households vulnerable to fuel poverty through the regulation of commercial energy suppliers and specific policies that provide cash transfers and energy-efficiency measures. Keeping energy prices low is an essential part of the UK government's approach to fuel poverty alleviation, but this task is a complex one in which the steering capacity of the nation-state often seems weak and its capacity hollowed out. This is exacerbated by a neoliberal policy direction that funds environmental and social policy measures through charges on energy bills rather than through tax-funded programmes. The chapter then argues that existing policy has been somewhat contradictory in its view of the government's power to steer energy markets. While the Department for Energy and Climate Change suggested that the UK has no control over the global energy market, this does not match political rhetoric, which has emphasised the importance of increasing domestic energy security in order to spread risk and reduce dependence on politically unstable fossil fuel-producing states, and has also seen political pressure placed on the six main energy companies to lower energy charges to consumers.

scholarly journals An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Youwang Zhang ◽  
Chongguang Li ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007-2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.

scholarly journals THE INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMMODITY ENERGY PRICES AND STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN SAUDI-ARABIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 270-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manal Alsufyani ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Background and Purpose: The present study examines the inter-relationship that exists between commodity energy price as well as stock market volatility in Saudi-Arabia. The focus of the study is to test if changes in commodities energy prices (oil related) cause significant changes in the stock market volatility of Saudi Arabia.   Methodology: This study made use of a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model which has exogenous variables (GARCH-X), thus able to employ the commodity energy price inform of an exogenous so as to test the conditional variance of the Saudi-Arabia stock market return.   Findings: The findings from the estimated model provide evidence that only the ARCH and GARCH parameters are significant while the exogenous variables are insignificant. It is concluded that other factors affect the volatility of the Saudi-Arabia stock market, but not the commodity energy price.   Contributions: This study recommends that, policy makers, investors, and regulators should give emphasis on macro-economic variables and volatility interdependence with other correlated markets, especially during energy price shock that affected the volatility of Saudi-Arabia stock market.    Keywords: Energy price, GARCH-X, Saudi Arabia, stock market, volatility.   Cite as: Alsufyani, M., & Sarmidi, T. (2020). The inter-relationship between commodity energy prices and stock market volatility in Saudi-Arabia. Journal of Nusantara Studies, 5(1), 270-293. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol5iss1pp270-293

scholarly journals Time-Varying Volatility Feedback of Energy Prices: Evidence from Crude Oil, Petroleum Products, and Natural Gas Using a TVP-SVM Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Jiang ◽  
Chao-Qun Ma ◽  
Xiao-Guang Yang ◽  
Yi-Shuai Ren
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Volatility Feedback

: In this paper, the time-varying volatility feedback of nine series of energy prices is researched by employing the time-varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean (TVP-SVM) model. The major findings and conclusions can be grouped as follows: Significant differences exist in the time-varying volatility feedback among the nine major energy productions. Specifically, crude oil and diesel’s price volatility has a remarkable positive time-varying effect on their returns. Yet the returns, for natural gas and most petroleum products are negatively affected by their price volatility over time. Furthermore, obvious structural break features exist in the time-varying volatility feedback of energy prices, which coincide with the breakpoints in the energy volatility. This indicates that some factors such as major global economic and geopolitical events that cause the sudden structural breaks in the energy volatility may also affect the volatility feedback of the energy price. Moreover, the volatility feedback in energy price will become weak and even have no impact on energy returns in some special periods when the energy price volatility is extremely high.

Can Bitcoin be the Future of Digital Payments?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 489-500
Author(s):  
Andrea Valente ◽  
◽  
David Atkinson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Digital Payments ◽  
Robust Regulation ◽  
Stakeholder Acceptance

This study aimed to investigate the conditions in which Bitcoin has developed as a leading cryptocurrency and, according to Nakamoto (2008), could become an instrument for everyday payments around the world. In comparison to other digital payment solutions, Bitcoin is based on a peer-to-peer electronic cash system using “the blockchain”. This innovative technology allows for decentralised storage and movement of currency in a fully anonymous way, introducing advantageous methods for encrypted security and faster transactions (Hagiu & Beach, 2014). Scepticism regards Bitcoin’s foundation, energy consumption and price volatility, however, did not take long to arise (Holthaus, 2017). Ten years from its white paper release, Bitcoin is further supported by the same drivers which could sustain its growth as the future of digital payments (Russo, 2018). In order to investigate the key drivers and feasibility of acceptance, a London based survey was used to understand the desirability of Bitcoin as a day-to-day tool for digital payments. Additionally, this research analysed Bitcoin’s stakeholders and forecast drivers of sustainability for its application to become the future of the payment industry. A space which relies on policies that involve multiple layers of society, governments, regulators and tech-firms, all on a global scale. The findings confirmed how the increasing lack of trust of political and financial institutions, coupled with the increasing cases of data-breaches by tech-firms, encouraged over 70% of respondents to consider more decentralised and anonymous methods for their day-to-day actions; like payments. Policy makers need to cope with societies increasingly separating politically but gathering together digitally (LBS, 2017). For Bitcoin to truly establish itself as a global digital payment solution, key stakeholder acceptance must converge alongside the introduction of more robust regulation.

Adaptation to Climate Change under Climate Change Treaties

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 158-167
Author(s):  
Agata Bator ◽  
Agnieszka Borek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
International Level ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Global Agreement ◽  
Local Levels ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract On the ground that climate change poses a great threat to societies and economies, it became evident for policy makers that attention should be given to the problem of adaptation, i.e. adaptation measures should be undertaken to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. As the debate on the adverse impacts of climate change advanced at international level, states are taking actions at national, regional and local levels. Along with the increase awareness regarding importance of adaptation, regulations designed to prepare states to strengthen their resilience to climate change, has been developed in climate change treaties. Paris Agreement seems to be the first global agreement which addresses adaptation as one of its key goals and links it with mitigation efforts. The purpose of this article is to discuss the most important regulations and programmes within the regime established by the Framework Convention and the Paris Agreement concerning adaptation to climate change.

Potentialanalyse einer energiepreis- orientierten Reihenfolgebildung*/Potential analysis of an energy price-oriented sequencing - Integration of volatile energy prices in the manufacturing control to reduce energy costs

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (09) ◽  
pp. 617-624
Author(s):  
S. Willeke ◽  
M. Stonis ◽  
P. Prof. Nyhuis
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Compliance Cost ◽  
Manufacturing Control ◽  
Potential Analysis ◽  
Sequencing Rule ◽  
Production Orders ◽  
Save Energy

Durch die Zunahme der Einspeisungen erneuerbarer Energien nimmt die Volatilität des Strompreises stetig zu. Unter Berücksichtigung dieses Sachverhaltes können produzierende Unternehmen durch die Anwendung einer energiepreisorientierten Reihenfolgeregel Energiekosten sparen. Da die Anwendung dieser Reihenfolgeregel nicht nur Auswirkungen auf die Energiekosten hat, wird in diesem Fachbeitrag eine Potentialanalyse vorgestellt, welche neben den Energiekosten zusätzlich die Termineinhaltungskosten von Fertigungsaufträgen berücksichtigt. &nbsp; As a result of the increasing feed-in of renewable energies, the volatility of the electricity price rises. Considering this, manufacturers can save energy costs by applying an energy price-oriented sequencing rule. Since the application of this sequencing rule does not only have an impact on the energy costs, a potential analysis is presented in this article which, in addition to the energy costs, also considers the schedule compliance cost of production orders.

Ukraine tightens rules to boost COVID vaccine uptake

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Many

Significance This places two-thirds of Ukrainian regions under the most stringent COVID-19 restrictions. In its second pandemic autumn, Ukraine is performing poorly because this year's vaccination programme has been slow to pick up, until a recent acceleration prompted by tougher restrictions. Vaccine hesitancy has been compounded by a scandal involving fake certificates. Impacts The government will blame the COVID-19 surge for poor macroeconomic performance. President Zelensky's standing will be largely unaffected, as responsibility for restrictions is mostly devolved to regions. COVID-19 will not sideline the many challenges facing the government, currently reflected in an emerging cabinet reshuffle.

ENERGY IN A MODEL OF FIRM ENTRY

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-254
Author(s):  
Soma Patra
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

Nine out of the last ten recessions in the United States have been preceded by an increase in the price of oil as noted by Hamilton [Palgrave Dictionary of Economics]. Given the small share of energy in gross domestic product this phenomenon is difficult to explain using standard models. In this paper, I show that firm entry can be an important transmission and amplifying channel for energy price shocks. The results from the baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predict a drop in output that is two times the impact in a model without entry. The model also predicts an increase in energy prices would lead to a decline in real wages, investment, consumption, and return on investment. Additionally, using US firm level data, I demonstrate that a rise in energy prices has a negative impact on firm entry as predicted by the DSGE model. This lends further support toward endogenizing firm entry when analyzing the effects of energy price shocks.

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