Blogging under Behemoth

Author(s):  
Sean Clark

The solution to the fragility and instability that accompanied Africa's newly independent states was widely seen as the adoption of strong, unrivalled political leadership. Politics needed to be uncompetitive; there was to be none of the jockeying for power between rival parties witnessed in older, more well-established democracies. This path, however, soon proved disastrous. Time and time again, the absence of a viable political opposition allowed leaders to run roughshod over the public good. Real incomes fell as a tiny kleptocratic elite enriched themselves at the national expense. Since 1989, however, Africa has witnessed a remarkable liberalization of political competition. Opposition parties have in most places been granted newfound freedom to politick, and have on occasion won elections outright. Some argue this is at least in part the product of the diffusion of communications technology. They contend such devices facilitate political activism and organization, fostering political competition in its wake. To test this hypothesis, continent-wide data on the spread of landline telephones, wireless handsets, and Internet connections has been marshalled, then contrasted against the level of political competition in Africa throughout the post-colonial period. The findings in this chapter suggest that while communications technology may serve as a boon to the cause of political competition immediately following first introduction, its long-term effects are likely to be limited.

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Lauri Rapeli ◽  
Inga Saikkonen

In this commentary, we discuss some possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in both established and newer democracies. We expect that the pandemic will not have grave long-term effects on established democracies. We assess the future of democracy after COVID-19 in terms of immediate effects on current democratic leaders, and speculate on the long-term effects on support for democratic institutions and principles. We also discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trends in democratic backsliding. We predict that, in the short term, the repercussions of the pandemic can aggravate the situation in countries that are already experiencing democratic erosion. However, the long term economic effects of the pandemic may be more detrimental to non-democratic governance.


eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Liliane Ujeneza ◽  
Wilfred Ndifon ◽  
Shobna Sawry ◽  
Geoffrey Fatti ◽  
Julien Riou ◽  
...  

Long-term effects of the growing population of HIV-treated people in Southern Africa on individuals and the public health sector at large are not yet understood. This study proposes a novel ‘ratio’ model that relates CD4+ T-cell counts of HIV-infected individuals to the CD4+ count reference values from healthy populations. We use mixed-effects regression to fit the model to data from 1616 children (median age 4.3 years at ART initiation) and 14,542 adults (median age 36 years at ART initiation). We found that the scaled carrying capacity, maximum CD4+ count relative to an HIV-negative individual of similar age, and baseline scaled CD4+ counts were closer to healthy values in children than in adults. Post-ART initiation, CD4+ growth rate was inversely correlated with baseline CD4+ T-cell counts, and consequently higher in adults than children. Our results highlight the impacts of age on dynamics of the immune system of healthy and HIV-infected individuals.


Author(s):  
Staņislavs Keišs ◽  
Alla Seregina

The article investigates the structure and dynamics of public debt of Latvia for the period from 2006–2016 year. The relevance of the study long-term effects of public debt on the economy of Latvia is predetermined by a significant increase in its volume of low GDP growth rates in recent years. This article discusses conceptual approaches and criteria for evaluation of the public debt. An analysis of the main reasons for the growth of public debt of Latvia after joining the EU, considers its specific characteristics and consequences as compared with the more developed EU countries on the basis of these annual reports of Latvia Treasury over the past ten years. Analysis of the structure of the debt of Latvia on maturity shows that an effective public debt management necessarily involves consideration of the long-term effects of the growth of public debt to the public. High level of the external indebtedness in the structure of Latvian public debt is a factor of the growth of “debt overhang” even following Maastricht criterions of public debt. As a result of the research is justification of differentiated approach necessity to the evaluation of public debt with considering of intertemporal effects.


2020 ◽  
pp. 089443932098043
Author(s):  
Agneta Ranerup ◽  
Helle Zinner Henriksen

The introduction of robotic process automation (RPA) into the public sector has changed civil servants’ daily life and practices. One of these central practices in the public sector is discretion. The shift to a digital mode of discretion calls for an understanding of the new situation. This article presents an empirical case where automated decision making driven by RPA has been implemented in social services in Sweden. It focuses on the aspirational values and effects of the RPA in social services. Context, task, and activities are captured by a detailed analysis of humans and technology. This research finds that digitalization in social services has a positive effect on civil servants’ discretionary practices mainly in terms of their ethical, democratic, and professional values. The long-term effects and the influence on fair and uniform decision making also merit future research. In addition, the article finds that a human–technology hybrid actor redefines social assistance practices. Simplifications are needed to unpack the automated decision-making process because of the technological and theoretical complexities.


1997 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Zsamboki ◽  
M Bell

The development of autonomous local self-governments is a critical, albeit often over-looked, element of the long-term transition to democracy in Central and Eastern Europe and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. All countries in the region have taken clear steps to pass legislation creating new local government institutions. Such institutional reform is necessary, but not sufficient, for the development of autonomous local self-government. In this paper we present several fundamental criteria which must be satisfied in order to establish and nurture autonomous local self-government. We test these criteria against institutional reforms in Central and Eastern Europe and the newly independent states to gauge the extent to which there has been actual devolution of governmental responsibility from central to local governments. We conclude that, although some individual strands of these fundamental reforms may have received some attention in the current transition process, such attention is more ad hoc than strategic. As a result, the goal of creating autonomous local self-governments has not been achieved. Donor nations and reform elements in each country must think strategically about all dimensions of this local government transition if these changes are to be institutionalized and the transition is to be successful in the long term.


2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Catchpole ◽  
Oliver Morgan

AbstractIntroduction:On 07 July 2005, four bombs were detonated in London, killing 52 members of the public. Approximately 700 individuals received treatment either at the scene or at nearby hospitals.Hypothesis/Problem:Significant concerns about the potential long-term psychological and physical health effects of exposure to the explosions were raised immediately after the bombings. To address these concerns, a public health register was established for the purpose of following-up with individuals exposed to the explosions.Methods:Invitations to enroll in the register were sent to individuals exposed to the explosions. A range of health, emergency, and humanitarian service records relating to the response to the explosions were used to identify eligible individuals. Follow-up was undertaken through self-administered questionnaires. The number of patients exposed to fumes, smoke, dust, and who experienced blood splashes, individuals who reported injuries, and the type and duration of health symptoms were calculated. Odds ratios of health symptoms by exposure for greater or less than 30 minutes were calculated.Results:A total of 784 eligible individuals were identified, of whom, 258 (33%) agreed to participate in the register, and 173 (22%) returned completed questionnaires between 8 to 23 months after the explosions. The majority of individuals reported exposure to fumes, smoke, or dust, while more than two-fifths also reported exposure to blood. In addition to cuts and puncture wounds, the most frequent injury was ear damage. Most individuals experienced health symptoms for less than four weeks, with the exception of hearing problems, which lasted longer. Four-fifths of individuals felt that they had suffered emotional distress and half of them were receiving counseling.Conclusions:The results indicated that the main long-term health effects, apart from those associated with traumatic amputations, were hearing loss and psychological disorders. While these findings provide a degree of reassurance of the absence of long-term effects, the low response rate limits the extent to which this can be extrapolated to all those exposed to the bombings. Given the importance of immediate assessment of the range and type of exposure and injury in incidents such as the London bombings, and the difficulties in contacting individuals after the immediate response phase, there is need to develop better systems for identifying and enrolling exposed individuals into post-incident health monitoring.


1971 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myron Weiner

This study was undertaken in an effort to use data from European history to develop a model that might prove useful for describing, explaining, and predicting the patterns of political development and international behavior of some of the newly independent states of Asia and Africa. My interest in exploring the experiences of several European states grew out of dissatisfaction with efforts to build development theories exclusively upon knowledge of the contemporary developing areas in which the outcomes are unknown, where the periods of time with which we can work are often too short for testing any long-term development theories, and where we are often unable to distinguish between short-term, momentary changes and long-term, persistent patterns of growth or decay.


Author(s):  
Ömer Faruk Karaman

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian Federation, trying to develop economic and political relations with various countries, in order to maintain its influence in the newly independent states, is in charge of creating an organization called the Eurasian Economic Union. In this context, the Eurasian Economic Union, which started its activity in January 2015, is an attempt to economic integration among Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. The Turkish foreign policy has changed in multi-vector direction. Thus, the last events in Eurasia began to attract the attention of Turkey. In this paper, focusing on the perceptions of Eurasia by Russia and Turkey, examines the influence of the Eurasian Economic Union on relations between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan. In this context, Kyrgyzstan's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, in a political sense, may negatively affect relations between two countries and reduce the presence of Turkey in Kyrgyzstan. Also, because of the expected increasing in customs duties and hence rise in prices for goods imported from Turkey, the decline in demand for Turkish goods is expected. Nevertheless, the possibility of signing free trade agreements between member states, including Kyrgyzstan and Turkey in the long term, will change the political, commercial and cultural relations between two countries in a positive way.


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