An Exploration of Thinking About Complex Global Issues and Then Taking Action

2018 ◽  
pp. 102-146
Author(s):  
Ian Roderick
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Taking Action

There are many problems and challenges facing the world. They go beyond problems that can be solved. They present as continual challenges that perpetually shift and transform themselves. The word we use for these situations are issues and they are by nature complex and large scale – they are global and long term. However, action does follow thinking and talking, even if that action is internalized. This chapter explores thinking about complex global issues and taking action.

A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Ogasawara ◽  
Daniel de Oliveira ◽  
Fabio Paschoal Junior ◽  
Rafael Castaneda ◽  
Myrna Amorim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The World ◽  
Entire Country ◽  
Function Models ◽  
Nitrogen Phosphorus

Tracking information about fertilizers consumption in the world is very important since they are used to produce agriculture commodities. Brazil consumes a large amount of fertilizers due to its large-scale agriculture fields. Most of these fertilizers are currently imported. The analysis of consumption of major fertilizers, such as Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK), Sulfur, Phosphate Rock, Potash, and Nitrogen become critical for long-term government decisions. In this paper we present a method for fertilizers consumption forecasting based on both Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and logistic function models. Our method was used to forecast fertilizers consumption in Brazil for the next 20 years considering different economic growth for the entire country.

Contrasting tactical and strategic dynamics on a Clausewitz landscape

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-153
Author(s):  
Rodrick Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Human Organization ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Time

Statistical models based on the asymptotic limit theorems of control and information theories allow formal examination of the essential differences between short-time “tactical” confrontations and a long-term “strategic” conflict dominated by evolutionary process. The world of extended coevolutionary conflict is not the world of sequential “muddling through.” The existential strategic challenge is to take cognitive control of a long-term dynamic in which one may, in fact, be “losing” most short-term confrontations. Winning individual battles can be a relatively direct, if not simple or easy, matter of sufficient local resources, training, and resolve. Winning extended conflicts is not direct, and requires management of subtle coevolutionary phenomena subject to a dismaying punctuated equilibrium more familiar from evolutionary theory than military doctrine. Directed evolution has given us the agricultural base needed for large-scale human organization. Directed coevolution of the inevitable conflicts between the various segments of that organization may be needed for its long-term persistence.

scholarly journals YOUTH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 69-74
Author(s):  
Oxana Martirosyan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Quality Education ◽  
International Labour Organization ◽  
Decent Work ◽  
Youth Labor Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Mental Well Being

The economic crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to serious long-term consequences for young people around the world, primarily because States have suspended funding for education and a large number of youth projects, and many children and adolescents have not been able to implement their plans for quality education and decent work. The international labour organization conducted a large-scale study on “Youth and COVID-19: impact on jobs, education, rights and mental well-being”, covering 112 countries and 120 thousand respondents. The article presents some results of this study, reflecting the situation in the youth labor market.

scholarly journals Practice of Preserving Collections in the Library and Archives Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 509-521
Author(s):  
Ekaterina A. Barysheva
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Storage Conditions ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Storage Facility ◽  
Federal Department ◽  
The World ◽  
Library And Archives Canada ◽  
Storage Facilities ◽  
Library Collections

The Library and Archives of Canada (LAC) is Federal department of Canada established by the Parliament of Canada in 2004 to integrate services and functions of the National library and the National Archives of Canada; and currently it is the fourth-largest library in the world. The article discusses the experience of the Library and Archives Canada in creating modern centres for preserving documentary heritage, organizing the work of collections management, their conservation and restoration, ensuring openness and accessibility of collections. The main sources were materials published on the LAC website, primarily planning, reporting and financial documentation of the institution, as well as publications in the Canadian periodical press. Special attention is paid to the buildings and premises of the LAC storage facilities. The author describes the concept of the project of the Gatineau Preservation Centre, GPC. The complex, opened in 1997, is one of the top architectural objects constructed in Canada in the 20th century and one of the most secure library storage facilities in the world. The article considers organization of collections storage in the GPC and the work of restoration laboratories located in it. The author shows that GPC provides the most favourable storage conditions for the most valuable and vulnerable LAC collections. The paper gives information about the storage facility in the main LAC building in Ottawa on Wellington Street (built in 1967; modernized in the early 2000s), as well as storage facilities in Gatineau, Renfrew and Winnipeg.The author characterizes the new version of the LAC Collections Preservation Program (2018) which defines the strategic objectives of the institution in this area, both for the nearest future and for the long term. The paper presents results of a large-scale study of the state of the collections storage in LAC (2016—2018) and outlines the most acute problems identified in this study. There is emphasized the importance of the construction of the new Gatineau-2 complex, launched in 2019 (Project cost is 330 million Canadian dollars). According to experts, Gatineau-2 will become one of the largest, technologically equipped and environmental centres for the conservation and restoration of library collections in the world, as well as the first zero-energy storage facility in North America. In Canada, special attention is paid to the construction of modern centres for the preservation of documentary heritage, which create all the necessary conditions for long-term security of collections, conservation and restoration work. Implementation of such projects is impossible without government support, without understanding by authorities of the leading role of libraries and archives in the preservation and promotion of the national cultural heritage. The experience of LAC may be of interest to Russia, taking into account the tasks set in the document “The main directions of development of activities to preserve library collections in the Russian Federation for 2011—2020” and elaboration of long-term programs in this area.

How much wetland has the world lost? Long-term and recent trends in global wetland area

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick C. Davidson
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Wetland Loss ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Ramsar Convention ◽  
Wetland Area ◽  
The World ◽  
Natural Wetlands ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
National Governments

It has been frequently stated, but without provision of supporting evidence, that the world has lost 50% of its wetlands (or 50% since 1900 AD). This review of 189 reports of change in wetland area finds that the reported long-term loss of natural wetlands averages between 54–57% but loss may have been as high as 87% since 1700 AD. There has been a much (3.7 times) faster rate of wetland loss during the 20th and early 21st centuries, with a loss of 64–71% of wetlands since 1900 AD. Losses have been larger and faster for inland than coastal natural wetlands. Although the rate of wetland loss in Europe has slowed, and in North America has remained low since the 1980s, the rate has remained high in Asia, where large-scale and rapid conversion of coastal and inland natural wetlands is continuing. It is unclear whether the investment by national governments in the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands has influenced these rates of loss. There is a need to improve the knowledge of change in wetland areas worldwide, particularly for Africa, the Neotropics and Oceania, and to improve the consistency of data on change in wetland areas in published papers and reports.

scholarly journals Large-scale monitoring of resistance to coumaphos, amitraz and pyrethroids in Varroa destructor

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Sara Hernández-Rodríguez ◽  
Óscar Marín ◽  
Fernando Calatayud ◽  
María José Mahiques ◽  
Ana Mompó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Honey Bee ◽  
Varroa Destructor ◽  
Significant Variation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The Other ◽  
List Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Evolution Of Resistance ◽  
Bee Colonies

ABSTRACTVarroa destructor is an ectoparasitic mite causing devastating damages to honey bee colonies around the world. Its impact is considered a major factor contributing to the significant seasonal losses of colonies recorded every year. Beekeepers are usually relying on a reduced set of acaricides to manage the parasite, usually the pyrethroids tau-fluvalinate or flumethrin, the organophosphate coumaphos and the formamidine amitraz. However, the evolution of resistance in the populations is leading to an unsustainable scenario with almost no alternatives to reach an adequate control of the mite.Here we present the results from the first, large-scale and extensive monitoring of the susceptibility to acaricides in the Comunitat Valenciana, one of the most prominent apicultural regions in Spain. Our ultimate goal was to provide beekeepers with timely information to help them decide what would be the best alternative for a long-term control of the mites in their apiaries. Our data show that there is a significant variation in the expected efficacy of coumaphos and pyrethroids across the region, indicating the presence of a different ratio of resistant individuals to these acaricides in each population. On the other hand, the expected efficacy of amitraz was more consistent, although slightly below the expected efficacy according to the label.HIGHLIGHTSVarroa destructor is causing severe damages to honey bee colonies worldwide.There are very few acaricides available to manage the parasite.The evolution of resistance is limiting our capacity to control the mite.We estimated the expected efficacy of the main acaricides in many Spanish apiaries.The information was shared with beekeepers for them to decide the best treatment to control the mite.

scholarly journals China’s Arctic Policy: Challenges to Regional Security (1990s – 2020s)

2021 ◽  
pp. 377-388
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Horobets ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The World ◽  
Arctic Policy ◽  
The Arctic Region

The article analyzes the evolution of China's Arctic policy, which has expanded over three decades from individual polar research to observer status in the Arctic Council and the existence of a state Arctic strategy. China and Russia have established mutually beneficial cooperation in the Arctic region in such conditions, when in many areas there are fundamental contradictions between the countries. The West did not have a long-term strategy capable of responding to current security challenges, including in the Arctic. When Russia tried to regain lost positions on the world stage in 2007-2008, China became an increasingly influential player in the world. If before the Arctic had been outside the lines of rivalry for decades, the question of the Far North as an arena of military competition began to take first place. China has become a long-term threat to both the United States and Russia. In previous years, with the help of the China, Moscow had the opportunity to receive the necessary investments and technologies for large-scale Arctic projects. The more Beijing attempts to establish itself as an influential player in the Arctic, the more the threat to other Arctic countries will grow. The Russian Federation has positioned itself as a leader in the region. The country's policy was aimed at strengthening this status through regional control and expansion of the military presence. This led to a response from the United States and NATO countries. In Russia it was assessed as a threat. The question arises as to what the strategy of the United States should be, and whether it will be possible to resist the costly arms race. If not, then the competition will be concentrated in the political and economic spheres. A particular aspect is the rapid militarization of the Arctic region after 2014, primarily due to changes in Russia's military strategy, which extends to the North. This has led to the tensions between the United States and Russia. China has not yet resorted to expand its military power in the Arctic. China's policy of economic and infrastructural influence is opposed to military methods. The effectiveness of Chinese non-military methods of influence is assessed

MEGATRENDS OF WORLD DEVELOPMENT AS A PROBLEM OF GLOBALISTICS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Muza
Keyword(s):  
Political Theory ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Floating Structures ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
New Development ◽  
The World ◽  
Development Trajectories ◽  
World Development

The article presents modern approaches to the interpretation of the concept of “megatrends”. It is shown that the Russian scientific literature often uses an extensive interpretation of the basic concept of the world political theory. Nevertheless, the existing theoretical and methodological basis (the version of F. Braudel “longue durée”) allow us to speak of megatrends as “recitatives of history”. The author defines them as end-to-end, immanent meta-processes that generate not only new development trajectories of the World-system, but also constitute large-scale and long-term societal forms of their implementation, both positive and negative. Therefore, the author offers enhanced framework in interpretation of world political dynamics as “floating” structures with ambiguous effects.

Effort to curb illicit logging in Africa to fall short

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Change Mitigation

Subject Outlook for deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa. Significance The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's World Forestry Congress last week said that the world has lost 129 million hectares (ha) of forested area since 1990, mainly in tropical Africa and South America. Three of the ten states with the fastest declines since 2010 are in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), due to demand for wood-fuel and timber for export. Much of the timber is traded illicitly, depriving states of revenue. Impacts Large-scale deforestation could undermine long-term climate change mitigation; forests are critical for absorbing carbon dioxide. The depletion of reserves of rare trees such as Madagascan rosewood will raise its value over time, boosting demand. Gabon's afforestation push -- it has gained 200,000 ha since 2010 due to state programmes -- will support eco-tourism.

scholarly journals Monitoring aseismic creep trends in the İsmetpaşa and Destek segments throughout the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) with a large-scale GPS network

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-40
Author(s):  
Hasan Hakan Yavaşoğlu ◽  
Mehmet Nurullah Alkan ◽  
Serdar Bilgi ◽  
Öykü Alkan
Keyword(s):  
Creep Behavior ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Arabian Plate ◽  
Seismogenic Layer ◽  
The North ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
The World

Abstract. The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is an intersection area between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. The Arabian Plate, which squeezes the Anatolian Plate from the south between the Eurasian Plate and itself, is also responsible for this formation. This tectonic motion causes the Anatolian Plate to move westwards with almost a 20 mm yr−1 velocity, which has caused destructive earthquakes in history. Block boundaries that form the faults are generally locked to the bottom of the seismogenic layer because of the friction between blocks and are responsible for these discharges. However, there are also some unique events observed around the world, which may cause partially or fully free-slipping faults. This phenomenon is called “aseismic creep” and may occur through the entire seismogenic zone or at least to some depths. Additionally, it is a rare event in the world located in two reported segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which are İsmetpaşa and Destek. In this study, we established GPS networks covering those segments and made three campaigns between 2014 and 2016. Considering the long-term geodetic movements of the blocks (Anatolian and Eurasian plates), surface velocities and fault parameters are calculated. The results of the model indicate that aseismic creep still continues with rates of 13.2±3.3 mm yr−1 at İsmetpaşa and 9.6±3.1 mm yr−1 at Destek. Additionally, aseismic creep behavior is limited to some depths and decays linearly to the bottom of the seismogenic layer at both segments. This study suggests that this aseismic creep behavior will not prevent medium- to large-scale earthquakes in the long term.

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