Revision of the Bullwhip Effect

2011 ◽  
pp. 1381-1387
Author(s):  
David de la Fuente
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Classic Method ◽  
The Sixties

A supply chain is composed of all the stakeholders and processes involved in satisfying consumer demand: wholesaler, retailer, warehousing, transport and so on. A classic method to understand the internal workings of a supply chain is the much-used beer distribution game that came out of MIT during the sixties. In this game, each player takes on the role of one of the members of the chain (consumer, retailer, wholesaler and manufacturer). The aim is for each of them to coordinate their actions in such a way as to satisfy the demands of the upstream member of the chain at the least possible cost. Sterman (1989) provided evidence of an effect that had already been described by Forrester (1961) whereby initial consumer demand is distorted and amplified as it passes along the chain. This increment is known as the Forrester or Bullwhip effect.

scholarly journals Challenging bullwhip effect dynamics with electronically enabled-supply chain management systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 244-256
Author(s):  
Thokozani Patmond Mbhele ◽  
Maxwell Agabu Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Supply Chain Network ◽  
The Social ◽  
Demand Rate ◽  
Business To Business

The bullwhip effect shows the dynamics of accumulating order rate that exceeds the tentatively stable actual demand rate. This paper aimed to assess the relative role of e-SCM systems as consumer demand orders cascading upstream supply chain network. The study’s population, consisting of the managers (senior and functional levels) including supervisory level (non-managerial) from retail sales, logistics, warehousing, marketing, manufacturing and IT hubs organisations, comprised of 460 respondents. In order to achieve the paper’s objective, the researcher developed and distributed a survey questionnaire and collected and analysed the data using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The empirical results from the study reveal that business-to-business information technology (B2BIT) diffusion frequencies have an effect on supply chain performance and e-SCM implementation promotes connectivity among supply chain partners to entrench commitment of the exchanged demand order information to mitigate the bullwhip effect.

scholarly journals System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo Li ◽  
Xiaojing Wang ◽  
Zhaohua Wang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Operation Mode ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Inventory Level ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Integrated Operation ◽  
Integrated Supply Chain

This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.

scholarly journals Exploration of relations among the members of the supply chain on the basis of relationship indicators

2014 ◽  
pp. 177-190
Author(s):  
Noémi Ványi ◽  
Gergely Varjasi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Critical Points ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Power Dependence ◽  
Mutual Dependence ◽  
Social Satisfaction ◽  
Business Units ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Business Philosophy

Today the various business units on the market are not competing individually against each other, but doing this as members of a supply chain, which are delivering the products or services to the customers with coordination. The participants are cooperating in the process of purchasing, production and sale. Their common objective is to deliver for the consumer demand. The supply chain approach of the enterprises is a business philosophy, which requires trust, commitment, coordination, shared objectives, support from the management, and the understanding and acceptance of the mutual dependence (Német, 2009). The main objective of our study is to analyse the relationships among the players of the supply chain through several relationship indicators, such as trust, economical satisfaction, social satisfaction, compelling power, non-compelling power, dependence, reputation and conflict. The relationship among the players of the supply chain has been analysed from two aspects, through the position and through the role of the players of the supply chain. This study aims to present the results of the analysis highlighting the critical points.

scholarly journals The Prevention and Reduction of the Bullwhip Effect by Electronic Data Interchange and Collaborative Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Bahija Jardini
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Electronic Data Interchange ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Electronic Data ◽  
Data Interchange ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Considerable Loss

The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon of curious amplification of variations in demand as one moves away from the final customer. Popularized by Lee and al., (1997), the bullwhip effect has negative consequences on all actors in the supply chain because it generates considerable loss of profits: Too much stock, loss of sales, poor customer service, insufficient quality and multiple disruptions of flow and organization. To prevent and reduce the bullwhip effect, various tools are recommended. The Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) is among the most important given its impact on accelerating information sharing throughout the supply chain. This paper aims to shed light on the role of EDI, VMI (Vendor-managed inventory) and CPFR (collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment) in the prevention and reduction of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain.

scholarly journals Bullwhip Effect in the Information Flow of a Supply Chain: A Role of Culture

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadeja Lampret ◽  
Vojko Potočan
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Information Flow ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Whip Effect ◽  
Order Variability

Abstract The main goal of our research is to analyze and display causes of a bullwhip effect formation within a supply chain, as well as to provide the appropriate solutions to limit the occurrence of the bullwhip effect by using the proper information flow and partners’ cooperation within the supply chain. The bullwhip effect is one of the most important issues in the supply chain management and it is present in many companies. It preserves a character of invisibility because there are lots of causes for its formation and they are usually difficult to discern. The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon of an increase in the order variability within a supply chain. The higher we are within the supply chain, the higher is the order variability. The company encountered with the whip effect can successfully reduce its impact by improving the information flow, as well as improving partners’ cooperation within the supply chain. In this way the company can limit its negative repercussions and increase the profit. The article focuses on the overview of the bullwhip effect within a distribution chain, from its causes to suggestions and measures how to ease its negative repercussions on the organisation. Part of the causes could be found in the market demand variability and in the lack of communication about the actual marked demand within the supply chain. The rest of the causes are related to obstacles that emerge among different partners within the supply chain (role of culture). A qualitative analysis is applied on the basis of the selected cognitions from the supply chain management. The quantitative analysis is based on the theoretical research of the effective flow of information among the participants and its contribution to the reduction of the bullwhip impact. The article discusses two research questions: 1) The correct information flow within the supply chain and the improvement of the communication among partners can lead to the bullwhip effect reduction, and 2) A reduction of the bullwhip influence can lead to the increase of cooperation among partners. The results of the analysis can be used for further research.

A Review on the Application of Neural Networks for Decreasing Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 438
Author(s):  
Milad Yousefi ◽  
Moslem Yousefi ◽  
Ricardo Poley Martins Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Bullwhip Effect

Changing Role of Agriculture in Income and Employment, and Trends of Agricultural Worker Productivity in Indian States

2020 ◽  
pp. 183-189
Keyword(s):  
Green Revolution ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Worker Productivity ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Agricultural Worker ◽  
The Sixties ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Changing Role

The productivity of land has been often discussed and deliberated by the academia and policymakers to understand agriculture, however, very few studies have focused on the agriculture worker productivity to analyze this sector. This study concentrates on the productivity of agricultural workers from across the states taking two-time points into consideration. The agriculture worker productivity needs to be dealt with seriously and on a time series basis so that the marginal productivity of worker can be ascertained but also the dependency of worker on agriculture gets revealed. There is still disguised unemployment in all the states and high level of labour migration, yet most of the states showed the dependency has gone down. Although a state like Madhya Pradesh is doing very well in terms of income earned but that is at the cost of increased worker power in agriculture as a result of which, the productivity of worker has gone down. States like Mizoram, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura, though small in size showed remarkable growth in productivity and all these states showed a positive trend in terms of worker shifting away from agriculture. The traditional states which gained the most from Green Revolution of the sixties are performing decently well, but they need to have the next major policy push so that they move to the next orbit of growth.

The Role of Contracts in the Organic Supply Chain: 2004-2007

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn Dimitri ◽  
Lydia Oberholtzer ◽  
Michelle Wittenberger
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain

Classification of Operational and Financial Variables Affecting the Bullwhip Effect in Indian Sectors: A Machine Learning Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachin Gupta ◽  
Anurag Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Consumer Preference ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Financial Variables

Background: The increased variability in production or procurement with respect to less increase of variability in demand or sales is considered as bullwhip effect. Bullwhip effect is considered as an encumbrance in optimization of supply chain as it causes inadequacy in the supply chain. Various operations and supply chain management consultants, managers and researchers are doing a rigorous study to find the causes behind the dynamic nature of the supply chain management and have listed shorter product life cycle, change in technology, change in consumer preference and era of globalization, to name a few. Most of the literature that explored bullwhip effect is found to be based on simulations and mathematical models. Exploring bullwhip effect using machine learning is the novel approach of the present study. Methods: Present study explores the operational and financial variables affecting the bullwhip effect on the basis of secondary data. Data mining and machine learning techniques are used to explore the variables affecting bullwhip effect in Indian sectors. Rapid Miner tool has been used for data mining and 10-fold cross validation has been performed. Weka Alternating Decision Tree (w-ADT) has been built for decision makers to mitigate bullwhip effect after the classification. Results: Out of the 19 selected variables affecting bullwhip effect 7 variables have been selected which have highest accuracy level with minimum deviation. Conclusion: Classification technique using machine learning provides an effective tool and techniques to explore bullwhip effect in supply chain management.

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