Model Validation

2009 ◽  
pp. 231-241
Author(s):  
Ben Kei Daniel
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
The World

Though computational models take a lot of effort to build, a model is generally not useful unless it can help people to understand the world being modelled, or the problem the model is intended to solve. A useful model allows people to make useful predictions about how the world will behave now and possibly tomorrow. Validation is the last step required in developing a useful Bayesian model. The goal of validation is to gain confidence in a model and to demonstrate and prove that a model produces reliable results that are closely related to the problems or issues in which the model is intended to address. The goal of the Chapter is to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the validation process and to share with them key lessons learned from the model of social capital presented in the book. While sensitivity analysis is intended to ensure that a Bayesian model is theoretically consistent with goals and assumptions of the modeller (how the modeller views the world) or the accuracy of sources of data used for building the model, the goal of validation is to demonstrate the practical application of the model in real world settings. This Chapter presents the main steps involved in the process of validating a Bayesian model. It illustrates this process by using examples drawn from the Bayesian model of social capital.

scholarly journals Advanced Performance Metrics and Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urmila Agrawal ◽  
Pavel Etingov ◽  
Renke Huang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Step Response ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Oscillatory Response

<pre>High quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMU measurements, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. Currently, the model validation results are analyzed by visually comparing real--world PMU measurements with the model-based response measurements, and parameter adjustments rely mostly on engineering experience. This paper proposes advanced performance metrics to systematically quantify the generator dynamic model validation results by separately taking into consideration slow governor response and comparatively fast oscillatory response. The performance metric for governor response is based on the step response characteristics of a system and the metric for oscillatory response is based on the response of generator to each system mode calculated using modal analysis. The proposed metrics in this paper is aimed at providing critical information to help with the selection of parameters to be tuned for model calibration by performing enhanced sensitivity analysis, and also help with rule-based model calibration. Results obtained using both simulated and real-world measurements validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics and sensitivity analysis for model validation and calibration.</pre>

Applying Andragogical Concepts in Creating a Sustainable Lifelong Learning Society

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 38-51
Author(s):  
Suwithida Charungkaittikul ◽  
John A. Henschke
Keyword(s):  
Adult Education ◽  
Lifelong Learning ◽  
Academic Discipline ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Learning Society ◽  
Facilitating Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future

Today, the world is changing, re-establishing the role of education to have a developed society. This article aims to explore the practical application of Andragogy as a key element for creating a sustainable lifelong learning society, to propose strategies for developing a lifelong learning society using andragogical concepts, to enhance ‘andragogy' as a scientific academic discipline and to expand on the horizon of andragogical assumptions and processes put forth by Malcolm Knowles. The literature on andragogy demonstrates the need to consider the future of andragogy, which may strengthen the theory and allow for the assumptions and processes to further guide this aspect of adult education. While the journey towards a lifelong learning society will continue to evolve, the lessons learned may help to identify key facilitating factors as well as pitfalls to be avoided in formulating more comprehensive lifelong learning society development strategies in the future.

scholarly journals Validation of computational models in biomechanics

2009 ◽  
Vol 224 (7) ◽  
pp. 801-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
H B Henninger ◽  
S P Reese ◽  
A E Anderson ◽  
J A Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Mechanics ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Patient Outcomes ◽  
Basic Science ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Peer Acceptance ◽  
Biological Systems ◽  
Verification And Validation ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
Computational Biomechanics

The topics of verification and validation have increasingly been discussed in the field of computational biomechanics, and many recent articles have applied these concepts in an attempt to build credibility for models of complex biological systems. Verification and validation are evolving techniques that, if used improperly, can lead to false conclusions about a system under study. In basic science, these erroneous conclusions may lead to failure of a subsequent hypothesis, but they can have more profound effects if the model is designed to predict patient outcomes. While several authors have reviewed verification and validation as they pertain to traditional solid and fluid mechanics, it is the intent of this paper to present them in the context of computational biomechanics. Specifically, the task of model validation will be discussed, with a focus on current techniques. It is hoped that this review will encourage investigators to engage and adopt the verification and validation process in an effort to increase peer acceptance of computational biomechanics models.

scholarly journals Validation of a structural model of an aircraft cockpit panel: An industrial case study

2021 ◽  
pp. 030932472110590
Author(s):  
Eann A Patterson ◽  
Ioannis Diamantakos ◽  
Ksenija Dvurecenska ◽  
Richard J Greene ◽  
Erwin Hack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Study ◽  
Real World ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Image Correlation ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
The Real ◽  
Operational Life

Computational models of structures are widely used to inform decisions about design, maintenance and operational life of engineering infrastructure, including airplanes. Confidence in the predictions from models is provided via validation processes that assess the extent to which predictions represent the real world, where the real world is often characterised by measurements made in experiments of varying sophistication dependent on the importance of the decision that the predictions will inform. There has been steady progress in developing validation processes that compare fields of predictions and measurements in a quantitative manner using the uncertainty in measurements as a basis for assessing the importance of differences between the fields of data. In this case study, three recent advances in a validation process, which was evaluated in an inter-laboratory study 5 years ago, are implemented using a ground-test on a fuselage at the aircraft manufacturer’s site for the first time. The results show that the advances successfully address the issues raised by the inter-laboratory study, that the enhanced validation process can be implemented in an industrial environment on a complex structure, and that the model was an excellent representation of the measurements made using digital image correlation.

scholarly journals Budget Impact Analysis of Diabetes Drugs: A Systematic Literature Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zejun Luo ◽  
Zhen Ruan ◽  
Dongning Yao ◽  
Carolina Oi Lam Ung ◽  
Yunfeng Lai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Practice Guidelines ◽  
Real World ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Budget Impact ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Budget Impact Analysis ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
World Data

Background: Budget impact analysis (BIA) is an economic assessment that estimates the financial consequences of adopting a new intervention. BIA is used to make informed reimbursement decisions, as a supplement to cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs).Objectives: We systematically reviewed BIA studies associated with anti-diabetic drugs and assessed the extent to which international BIA guidelines were followed in these studies.Methods: We conducted a literature search on PubMed, Web of Science, Econlit, Medline, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Data knowledge Service platform from database inception to June 30, 2021. ISPOR good practice guidelines were used as a methodological standard for assessing BIAs. We extracted and compared the study characteristics outlined by the ISPOR BIA Task Force to evaluate the guideline compliance of the included BIA.Results: A total of eighteen studies on the BIA for anti-diabetic drugs were identified. More than half studies were from developed countries. Seventeen studies were based on model and one study was based on real-world data. Overall, analysis considered a payer perspective, reported potential budget impacts over 1–5 years. Assumptions were mainly made about target population size, market share uptake of new interventions, and scope of cost. The data used for analysis varied among studies and was rarely justified. Model validation and sensitivity analysis were lacking in the current BIA studies. Rebate analysis was conducted in a few studies to explore the price discount that was required for new interventions to demonstrate cost equivalence to comparators.Conclusion: Existing studies evaluating budget impact for anti-diabetic drugs vary greatly in methodology, some of which showed low compliance to good practice guidelines. In order for the BIA to be useful for assisting in health plan decision-making, it is important for future studies to optimize compliance to national or ISPOR good practice guidelines on BIA. Model validation and sensitivity analysis should also be improved in future BIA studies. Continued improvement of BIA using real-world data is necessary to ensure high-quality analyses and to provide reliable results.

Lessons out of Chaos

2011 ◽  
pp. 124-137
Author(s):  
Anthony P. Glascock ◽  
David M. Kutzik
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Real World ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Real ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The Everyday ◽  
The World ◽  
Behavioral Monitoring ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Everyday Living

The lessons learned from nine years of the testing of a behavioral monitoring system—the Everyday Living Monitoring System (ELMS) — outside the laboratory in the real world are discussed. Initially, the real world was perceived as messy and filled with noise that just delayed and complicated the testing and development of the system. However, over time, it became clear that without embracing the chaos of the world and listening very carefully to its noise, the monitoring system could not be successfully moved from the laboratory to the real world. Specific lessons learned at each stage of development and testing are discussed, as well as the challenges that are associated with the actual commercialization of the system.

scholarly journals Advanced Performance Metrics and their Application to the Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urmila Agrawal ◽  
Pavel Etingov ◽  
Renke Huang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Step Response ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Oscillatory Response

<pre>High quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMU measurements, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. Currently, the model validation results are analyzed by visually comparing real--world PMU measurements with the model-based response measurements, and parameter adjustments rely mostly on engineering experience. This paper proposes advanced performance metrics to systematically quantify the generator dynamic model validation results by separately taking into consideration slow governor response and comparatively fast oscillatory response. The performance metric for governor response is based on the step response characteristics of a system and the metric for oscillatory response is based on the response of generator to each system mode calculated using modal analysis. The proposed metrics in this paper is aimed at providing critical information to help with the selection of parameters to be tuned for model calibration by performing enhanced sensitivity analysis, and also help with rule-based model calibration. Results obtained using both simulated and real-world measurements validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics and sensitivity analysis for model validation and calibration.</pre>

scholarly journals Advanced Performance Metrics and Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urmila Agrawal ◽  
Pavel Etingov ◽  
Renke Huang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Step Response ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Oscillatory Response

<pre>High quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMU measurements, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. Currently, the model validation results are analyzed by visually comparing real--world PMU measurements with the model-based response measurements, and parameter adjustments rely mostly on engineering experience. This paper proposes advanced performance metrics to systematically quantify the generator dynamic model validation results by separately taking into consideration slow governor response and comparatively fast oscillatory response. The performance metric for governor response is based on the step response characteristics of a system and the metric for oscillatory response is based on the response of generator to each system mode calculated using modal analysis. The proposed metrics in this paper is aimed at providing critical information to help with the selection of parameters to be tuned for model calibration by performing enhanced sensitivity analysis, and also help with rule-based model calibration. Results obtained using both simulated and real-world measurements validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics and sensitivity analysis for model validation and calibration.</pre>

THE LAPBOOK AS A DIDACTIC TOOL TO IMPLEMENT INTEGRATED TRAINING IN NATURAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP AT PRIMARY SCHOOL LEVEL

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yordanka Peycheva ◽  
Snezhana Lazarova
Keyword(s):  
Natural Science ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
School Level ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Educational Goals ◽  
Knowledge And Skills ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Highly Active ◽  
The World

The formation of comprehensive and in-depth notions of objects and phenomena in the world can be achieved when the mastery of knowledge and skills is carried out in a system realized in the context of integration of different scientific directions. One of the main issues in modern education is related to the contradiction - on one hand between the need to form the skills necessary for the orientation and adaptation of the personality in the dynamics of the globalizing world and on the other - the education which is largely based on unilateral acquiring of knowledge and skills within the different subject areas. This influences the development of a worldview and the formation of an adequate attitude towards the problems under consideration and the world as a whole. The knowledge and skills acquired today are often “locked” in the respective direction. The cross-curricular unity in the curriculum is of a recommended nature, but even if it is realized, it does not fully meet the need for a comprehensive and multifaceted consideration of global issues, as a result of which the student not only understands, reflects, but also applies the lessons learned in the process of creating a product - ideal or material. Combining the intellectual nature of the cognitive process with the practice activity are conditions in which the students are highly active and achieve better learning outcomes. Therefore, it is expedient for the different directions to correspond more closely to each other and to carry out effective cross-curricular integration. The concept of applying an integrative approach in the current paper is based on the idea of creating pedagogical conditions for reconciling the goals and expected outcomes of technology and entrepreneurship and natural sciences studied at the initial stage of the primary education. Integration can take place on two levels - knowledge and skills. We believe that the lapbook as an innovative didactic tool contains the necessary potential for effective realization of the educational goals in both directions in terms of achieving the expected results. In the course of its elaboration, new information is acquired in the field of engineering and technology, specific skills underlying the curricula of technology and entrepreneurship programs are developed. At the same time, a number of subjects from the learning content, which are considered from the natural science point of view, are enriched and perceived in a technological way, after which they find place in an attractive book - a lapbook, made by the students themselves. Its utilitarian value is multiplied by the personal contribution to its creation - not only as an object but also as content. The main topics that are of interest to the students are exploring and preserving nature, jobs, modern technical achievements, holidays and customs. As a result of the adequate integration of competences, tailored to curricula, a number of skills are formed, such as: skills for searching on their own, systematization and presentation of information, and application of the lessons learned in a new situation.

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