Is the World Flat or Not (Yet)?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Nadia Simoes ◽  
Nicole Palan ◽  
Nuno Crespo
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Trade Networks ◽  
The World ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
The Individual

This chapter adds to the understanding of trade globalization by accounting for the complexity and multi-dimensionality of the phenomenon at hand. This approach captures different aspects of the phenomenon, such as the interconnectedness of countries, geographical distance, and sectoral trade relationships over a period of 50 years. Thereby, both the commonalities and differences in the long-term trends for the individual dimensions of trade globalization are highlighted. Results indicate that regarding the number of positive bilateral trade flows, globalization was almost completed by 2016. Also, distance diminished significantly in importance for trade relationships. Yet, data shows that the degree of globalization was significantly different for high-tech sectors compared to low-tech sectors even though the latter could catch up over time. During recent years, protectionism tendencies have led to the discussion about a new age of slowbalization to be on the way while digitalization processes can integrate countries even further into global production and trade networks.

Sectoral Trade Globalization

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Nuno Crespo ◽  
Nicole Palan ◽  
Nadia Simoes
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Trade Networks ◽  
Accurate Evaluation ◽  
Regional Production ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Over Time

This chapter aims to shed light on the trends of sectoral trade globalization. This component of trade globalization is often neglected. An accurate evaluation of sectoral trade requires the analysis of the interdependencies of countries and the consideration of distance as a central dimension of trade globalization. As such, sectoral trade globalization is one aspect of a more complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon. Data show that sectoral trade globalization has increased significantly over the last 50 years irrespective of the characteristics of individual sectors. One relevant insight is that the level of trade globalization is on average still different for high-tech sectors compared to low-tech and medium-low-tech sectors even though the former could increase their bilateral trade relationships over time. Even though protectionist tendencies as well as the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a vivid discussion about the return to more local or regional production schemes, digitalization processes could still have the potential to further integrate countries' trade networks.

scholarly journals Investigations of long-term trends in the ionosphere with world-wide ionosonde observations*

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 253-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bremer
Keyword(s):  
Data Series ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Maximum Electron Density ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Density Values ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Experimental Values ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Basing on model calculations by Roble and Dickinson (1989) for an increasing content of atmospheric greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere Rishbeth (1990) predicted a lowering of the ionospheric F2- and E-regions. Later Rishbeth and Roble (1992) also predicted characteristic longterm changes of the maximum electron density values of the ionospheric E-, F1-, and F2-layers. Long-term observations at more than 100 ionosonde stations have been analyzed to test these model predictions. In the E- and F1-layers the derived experimental results agree reasonably with the model trends (lowering of h'E and increase of ƒoE and ƒoF1, in the E-layer the experimental values are however markedly stronger than the model data). In the ionospheric F2-region the variability of the trends derived at the different individual stations for hmF2 as well as ƒoF2 values is too large to estimate reasonable global mean trends. The reason of the large differences between the individual trends is not quite clear. Strong dynamical effects may play an important role in the F2-region. But also inhomogeneous data series due to technical changes as well as changes in the evaluation algorithms used during the long observation periods may influence the trend analyses.

scholarly journals Internal consistency of the Regional Brewer Calibration Centre for Europe triad during the period 2005–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 4059-4072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Fabián León-Luis ◽  
Alberto Redondas ◽  
Virgilio Carreño ◽  
Javier López-Solano ◽  
Alberto Berjón ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Relative Standard Deviation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Individual Values ◽  
Relative Standard ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Ozone Column

Abstract. Total ozone column measurements can be made using Brewer spectrophotometers, which are calibrated periodically in intercomparison campaigns with respect to a reference instrument. In 2003, the Regional Brewer Calibration Centre for Europe (RBCC-E) was established at the Izaña Atmospheric Research Center (Canary Islands, Spain), and since 2011 the RBCC-E has transferred its calibration based on the Langley method using travelling standard(s) that are wholly and independently calibrated at Izaña. This work is focused on reporting the consistency of the measurements of the RBCC-E triad (Brewer instruments #157, #183 and #185) made at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory during the period 2005–2016. In order to study the long-term precision of the RBCC-E triad, it must be taken into account that each Brewer takes a large number of measurements every day and, hence, it becomes necessary to calculate a representative value of all of them. This value was calculated from two different methods previously used to study the long-term behaviour of the world reference triad (Toronto triad) and Arosa triad. Applying their procedures to the data from the RBCC-E triad allows the comparison of the three instruments. In daily averages, applying the procedure used for the world reference triad, the RBCC-E triad presents a relative standard deviation equal to σ = 0.41 %, which is calculated as the mean of the individual values for each Brewer (σ157 = 0.362 %, σ183 = 0.453 % and σ185 = 0.428 %). Alternatively, using the procedure used to analyse the Arosa triad, the RBCC-E presents a relative standard deviation of about σ = 0.5 %. In monthly averages, the method used for the data from the world reference triad gives a relative standard deviation mean equal to σ = 0.3 % (σ157 = 0.33 %, σ183 = 0.34 % and σ185 = 0.23 %). However, the procedure of the Arosa triad gives monthly values of σ = 0.5 %. In this work, two ozone data sets are analysed: the first includes all the ozone measurements available, while the second only includes the simultaneous measurements of all three instruments. Furthermore, this paper also describes the Langley method used to determine the extraterrestrial constant (ETC) for the RBCC-E triad, the necessary first step toward accurate ozone calculation. Finally, the short-term or intraday consistency is also studied to identify the effect of the solar zenith angle on the precision of the RBCC-E triad.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the relation between daytime and nighttime values of <I>fo</I>F2

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1199-1206 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Thermospheric Winds ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Ionospheric Sounding ◽  
Limiting Value

Abstract. The data from the vertical ionospheric sounding for 12 stations over the world were analyzed to find the relation between the values of foF2 for 02:00 LT and 14:00 LT of the same day. It is found that, in general, there exists a negative correlation between foF2(02) and foF2(14). The value of the correlation coefficient R(foF2) can be in some cases high enough and reach minus 0.7–0.8. The value of R(foF2) demonstrates a well pronounced seasonal variations, the highest negative values being observed at the equinox periods of the year. It is also found that R(foF2) depends on geomagnetic activity: the magnitude of R(foF2) is the highest for the choice of only magnetically quiet days (Ap<6), decreasing with the increase of the limiting value of Ap. For a fixed limitation on Ap, the value of R(foF2) depends also on solar activity. Apparently, the effects found are related to thermospheric winds. Analysis of long series of the vertical sounding data shows that there is a long-term trend in R(foF2) with a statistically significant increase in the R(foF2) magnitude after about 1980. Similar analysis is performed for the foF2(02)/foF2(14) ratio itself. The ratio also demonstrates a systematic trend after 1980. Both trends are interpreted in terms of long-term changes in thermospheric circulation.

Threats to the running water ecosystems of the world

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Malmqvist ◽  
Simon Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Running Waters ◽  
Running Water ◽  
Lotic Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Water Ecosystems

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

scholarly journals Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Burney ◽  
Laurel L. DeHaan ◽  
Chisato Shimizu ◽  
Emelia V. Bainto ◽  
Jane W. Newburger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kawasaki Disease ◽  
San Diego ◽  
Combine Data ◽  
Disease Etiology ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Short Time

AbstractIn a single-site study (San Diego, CA, USA), we previously showed that Kawasaki Disease (KD) cases cluster temporally in bursts of approximately 7 days. These clusters occurred more often than would be expected at random even after accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. This finding raised the question of whether other locations around the world experience similar temporal clusters of KD that might offer clues to disease etiology. Here we combine data from San Diego and nine additional sites around the world with hospitals that care for large numbers of KD patients, as well as two multi-hospital catchment regions. We found that across these sites, KD cases clustered at short time scales and there were anomalously long quiet periods with no cases. Both of these phenomena occurred more often than would be expected given local trends and seasonality. Additionally, we found unusually frequent temporal overlaps of KD clusters and quiet periods between pairs of sites. These findings suggest that regional and planetary range environmental influences create periods of higher or lower exposure to KD triggers that may offer clues to the etiology of KD.

scholarly journals INTENSIFICATION VECTORS OF TRADE INTEGRATION OF THE POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-41
Author(s):  
Tetiana Tsygankova ◽  
Olena Iatsenko
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
General Structure ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Coding System ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners

The study analyzes the dynamics of the development of integration processes. It is determined that the current stage of development is characterized by a change in the structure of the World Trade in favor of services and innovative products; by dynamic growth of trade in intermediate goods and services within global value chains. Trade integration covers a much broader network of participants, including bilateral, multilateral and interregional initiatives. The regional trade agreements (WTO-extra, WTO-plus) are being deepened and expanded. It is determined that the most common form of integration processes is the establishment of the Free Trade Zones, in particular on the basis of bilateral initiatives. Based on this, the bilateral trade relations between the post-Soviet countries and their trading partners (Poland, Italy, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Turkey, Czech Republic, Great Britain, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany, Romania, China) were analyzed. The index of trade complementarity was calculated and analyzed in order to identify the compliance of the export structure of the post-Soviet countries with the general structure of imports of these trading partners for high-tech product groups, in particular: machines and apparatuses for soldering and welding (code 8515 according to UKTZED (Ukrainian Commodity Coding System)), transmission shafts and bearing housings (code 8483), machines and mechanisms for harvesting and threshing crops (code 8433), spare parts and aggregates for metalworking equipment (code 8466), pumps for liquids (code 8413), burners for solid fuel or gas (code 8416), equipment for filtering and cleaning liquids and gases (code 8421), woodworking machines (code 8465), spare parts for motor vehicles (code 8708), electrical transformers (code 8504)). The geographical vectors of strengthening bilateral trade in the studied countries are substantiated based on the assessment of the calculated trade complementarity index. It was proposed to use the world experience based on certain key promising areas of international trade development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals METHANE IN THE SURFACE LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE: CURRENT CONTENT, LONG-TERM TRENDS AND INTRAANNUAL VARIABILITY

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
V.V. Kuzovkin ◽  
◽  
S.M. Semenov ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Methane Concentration ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Time Shift ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Co2 Absorption ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends

The article is devoted to the empirical analysis of series of monthly mean concentrations of methane in the near-surface layer of the atmosphere from the global network of monitoring stations. They operate within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The data is freely available at the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases GAW/WMO (WDCGG) on its website https://gaw.kishou.go.jp/ . The temporal coverage is from the 1980s. Data series from 69 stations are considered, of which 22 stations represent the global background conditions. The rest of the stations are regional. Long-term trends in concentrations and intraannual (inter-monthly) deviations of mean monthly concentrations from long-term trends were studied. The multi-year trend was estimated using a series of 12-month running averages. To exclude systematic differences in methane concentrations, these series were adjusted to the series for the high-latitude Arctic station Alert (82° 30' N, 62° 21' W). The analysis showed that long-term trends are non-linear (including with a known pause in the growth of methane levels in 1999-2006), but are similar at most of the stations under consideration. Exceptions are 6 regional stations classified as ‘abnormal’ for methane. A possible cause of the abnormality is being under the influence of certain sources of methane (anthropogenic or natural). Long-term trends at the rest of the stations are just slightly differ from the average trend for global stations. The series of intra-annual (inter-monthly) deviations of mean monthly concentrations from long-term trends for many stations, even those located at very significant distances from each other, show high correlative similarity. However, it manifests itself at an optimal time shift from 5 months. towards earlier dates up to 6 months. towards later dates. The results of the analysis are consistent with the assumption that the intra-annual variability in methane concentration is largely driven by seasonal factors that are significantly related to latitude, including vertical mixing in the atmosphere and destruction in the troposphere in reactions with hydroxyl. The root-mean-square values of the intra-annual (inter-monthly) fluctuations in methane concentration significantly depend on latitude. The higher the latitude, the greater the overall value. Maximum values are reached in the latitudinal belt 45-50° N, and further, to the north, the Кузовкин В.В., Семенов С.М. 20 values decrease. This character of intra-annual fluctuations in the level of methane content may be explained, among other things, by significant inter-seasonal fluctuations in anthropogenic methane emissions at the indicated latitudes in countries with developed economies located in North America and Western Europe. The estimates of correlations of the series of intra-annual (inter-monthly) fluctuations of the average monthly concentrations of CH4 and CO2 showed that at optimal time shifts, they are rather high, about 0.8. Moreover, this is observed both at some polar stations and at tropical ones. This confirms the assumption that natural seasonal biogeochemical and geophysical processes play a significant role in the formation of intra-annual (inter-monthly) deviations of the methane and carbon dioxide content in the near-surface layer from long-term trends, namely, vertical mixing of air, CO2 absorption on the Earth's surface, destruction of methane in the troposphere in reactions with hydroxyl.

STRATEGIC PLANNING OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1465-1476
Author(s):  
K.N. Andrianov ◽  
◽  
Y.V. Popkov ◽  
A.K. Markov ◽  
E.E. Mozhaev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
World Market ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
The World ◽  
Market Management ◽  
Scientific And Technological Development

In this article, the authors analyze the experience of strategic planning for the scientific and technological development of the PRC. It is concluded that: largely due to effective strategic planning, over the past 15 years, the PRC has multiplied its economic potential and has become one of the most powerful countries in the world. The achievements of the PRC in the development of advanced technologies are especially impressive. The PRC has managed to create from scratch high-tech export-oriented sectors of the economy that are competitive in the world market. The characteristic features of the Chinese scientific and technological development management system are revealed: a clear definition of priority areas of scientific and technological development, concentrating efforts on a limited number of areas of science and technology development that are important for increasing the competitiveness of the national economy; planning manages scientific and technological development, the main one envisaging environmental achievement of long-term and moment of short-term goals, development and certain implementation of such long-term integrated marine programs, software R&D and innovative development; government stimulation of effective cooperation between science, education and business in ensuring the entire innovation cycle - from fundamental research to the introduction of developments in production, for the development of high-tech sectors; the use of a significant part of export earnings for the acquisition of modern equipment technologies; strict regulation of foreign investments in order to direct them to the sectors of new and high technologies; a harmonious combination of planning and market management methods in the development of small innovative business. Particular attention is paid to the consideration of the main elements of the state scientific and technological policy of the PRC. In addition, the authors conduct a detailed analysis of the main documents of the strategic planning of the PRC in the field of innovative development.

World Economy: Forecast for the Year 2050

2008 ◽  
pp. 62-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Klinov
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Geographic Structure ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The World ◽  
Crucial Problem ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Long Term Trends

Forecasting long-term trends in the world economy is a necessary element of elaborating a strategy of economic development. The forecast for 2025 and 2050 has been worked out using concepts of Kondratieff long waves, catching-up pathways of development as well as modern trends in demographic processes. The estimates of changes in the geographic structure of the world economy, so derived, are compared with forecasts based on extrapolation of trends in the last 30 years of the 20th century, made up by prominent think tanks. The formation of the multi-center structure of the world economy and probable emergence of Russia as one of the global powers may imply that worldwide cooperation in securing supply of natural resources and protecting the environment will become a crucial problem of international relations.

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