Scientific Intelligence, Decision Making, and Cyber-Security

2021 ◽  
pp. 1467-1489
Author(s):  
Luisa dall'Acqua
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cognitive Science ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Scientific Intelligence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Computer Engineering ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Technological Tools

Because of the huge amount of data and information in the decision-making and strategic choices processes, basing decisions on information directly collected from the sources is not conceivable. A decision-making analyst becomes a fundamental pillar in both the corporate field and the institutional world. This role is becoming increasingly complex and specialized, critical within the cycle of the intelligence analysis, for the relationships that bind it to the other stakeholders, and for the methodological and technological tools that support it. The purpose of this chapter is to explore the milestones of the intelligence analysis deriving from a close collaboration between social sciences, cognitive science, computer engineering, and ICT in order to respond to the different needs in the field of risk management, safety, investigations, and applied intelligence.

Scientific Intelligence, Decision Making, and Cyber-Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 21-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luisa dall'Acqua
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cognitive Science ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Scientific Intelligence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Computer Engineering ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Technological Tools

Because of the huge amount of data and information in the decision-making and strategic choices processes, basing decisions on information directly collected from the sources is not conceivable. A decision-making analyst becomes a fundamental pillar in both the corporate field and the institutional world. This role is becoming increasingly complex and specialized, critical within the cycle of the intelligence analysis, for the relationships that bind it to the other stakeholders, and for the methodological and technological tools that support it. The purpose of this chapter is to explore the milestones of the intelligence analysis deriving from a close collaboration between social sciences, cognitive science, computer engineering, and ICT in order to respond to the different needs in the field of risk management, safety, investigations, and applied intelligence.

scholarly journals PENGEMBANGAN KERANGKA MANAJEMEN RISIKO PADA PERBANKAN SYARIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-67
Author(s):  
Diah Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Risk Management Framework

Islamic banking such as the other business institution will face different kind of risk that inherent on its main business activity. In business, risk defined as a posibillity an can appear every time, before, when, and after the decision making. Islamic banking faced different risk with the conventional banking, because its uniquenes. Thus, the development of risk management framework in Islamic banking is very important to do, especially in frame of  risk identification, measuring, mitigation and monitoring. This paper will discuss about risk management in Islamic Banking, in theoretically and the implementation of risk management. The scope of this study will include the identification of risk in Islamic Banking, stage of risk management in Islamic Banking, risk management model, and also the devolpment of risk management framework in Islamic Banking.

Belt and road initiative (BRI) supply chain risks: propositions and model development

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-799
Author(s):  
Jiwat Ram ◽  
Zeyang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road

PurposeBelt and road initiative (BRI) is a transcontinental endeavor strategically connecting supply chains (SCs) and economic infrastructures to ignite business activities and achieve trade benefits. However, the rising global SC failure costs and risks associated with this initiative (owing to unique geopolitical, economic and mega-connectivity involving over 70 countries) necessitate examining BRI SC risks. Yet, research on the subject remains limited, and the purpose of this paper is to address this gap in knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA two-pronged approach was taken. First, a data sample of 554 articles was analyzed and 178 articles found relevant were used to present a systematic, structured framework of risk factors along operational, economic, financial, social and security dimensions. Then informed by the theory of risk management and supplemented by literature evidence, we have built a BRI SC risk model.FindingsThe results presented through the model show that BRI SCs face a combination of risks triggered by operational processes, informational and environmental (PIE) deficiencies. Findings show that lack of risk and liability management, unbalanced risk-sharing partnerships, lack of transparency, inadequate project evaluation, incompatible corporate governance structures and cyber security all pose threats to BRI SCs specifically and SCs in general.Research limitations/implicationsAcademically, the results facilitate theory development by identifying and proposing seven risk factors and modeling relationship among them and BRI SC risks outcome. The results also extend application of theory of risk management to SC context.Practical implicationsThe findings provide a decision-making tool for managers to assess risk factors in their SCs, thus enabling improved decision making to avoid, mitigate, transfer or accept risks.Originality/valueIdentifies and proposes a set of seven risk factors that drive BRI SC risks. Develops a model of BRI SC risks which help build theory of SC risk management.

Risk-Taking and Risk Management

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-112
Author(s):  
Carolyn James
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Competitive Behaviour ◽  
The One ◽  
Political Decision Making

This chapter explores the ways in which gender shaped the respective approaches to political decision-making by the marquis and his wife. I argue that while the delegated nature of her authority encouraged Isabella to keep her emotions strictly in check and to be prudent in a diplomatic setting, Francesco was far more erratic. On the one hand, he adopted strategies of temporizing, prevarication, and swift changes of allegiance to hedge his bets politically, seen by contemporaries as intrinsically female vices, on the other, he indulged in reckless and competitive behaviour designed to display his masculine courage and princely disdain for caution. Together the couple evaded the dangers posed by the second French descent and the fall of Milan to Louis XII, but it was Isabella’s prudence that neutralized the ill-considered risk-taking of her husband.

The Road to Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Gamification ◽  
2015 ◽  
pp. 699-713
Author(s):  
Michel Rudnianski ◽  
Milos Kravcik
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Thinking ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
The Road ◽  
Core Competences ◽  
The One

In an environment characterized by an ever-increasing flow of data and resulting complexity, the development of intelligence analysis is of core importance. After a brief analysis of three core competences (data processing, empathy, critical thinking), decision making issues are addressed through considering on the one hand cognitive and psychological biases, and on the other hand methodologies based on instrumental rationality. Core factors for the development of critical thinking are then discussed before a specific tool of Game Theory, called Games of Deterrence, is introduced based on bounded rationality. An example of Games of Deterrence's application to critical thinking is given through using these games to model argumentation. Finally, on the basis of the method adopted, a framework is proposed for building a serious game devoted to critical thinking and intelligence analysis.

A Logic-Based Risk Engineering Approach to Support the Decision-Making Process of Upstream Projects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Vimercati ◽  
Filippo Fratoni ◽  
Karin Comploi ◽  
Mirko Petralia ◽  
Filippo Corvi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Innovative Approach ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Business World ◽  
Risk Management Process

Abstract The exploration and production of hydrocarbons is undeniably a high-risk venture. Uncertainties are in every activity, from the exploration phase up to facilities construction and plants operation. To allow decision makers understanding the uncertainty associated with the decisions they were asked to face, in the 70ies of the past century, when the oil shockwaves upset the entire business world (Bood & Postma, 1997), it was introduced the use of scenario analysis. Since then, stochastic analyses, such as Monte Carlo simulations, started permeating the oil & gas world. Yet, as Lewis et al. (2004) highlighted, despite the benefit greatly outweighs the effort generally required to perform these analyses, managers not seldom refrained themselves from using these tools to support their decision-making processes. And this, as highlighted by Judah (2016), despite risk mitigation is the very core of the oil & gas business as risks at stake are many, namely: drilling risk, subsurface risk, cost & schedule risk, procurement risk, performance risk, health, safety, and environment (HSE) risk, geopolitical risk, and price risk. Today, the energy transition is imposing new challenges to the oil & gas sector. Even amongst those companies that have embraced (quantitative) structured approaches to support their investment decisions, there is another challenge to face: the integration of all risks in one approach capable of capturing the overall complexity of oil & gas projects and highlighting the effects of variations of both endogenous and exogenous risks on the overall profitability of the opportunity at stake (or the portfolio of opportunities). Risks are typically assessed separately by each function with different quantitative approaches that leave grey zones of interpretation where inter-functional risks can grow and create decisional inefficiencies. Aware of this, Eni integrated risk management, started last year a project aimed at enhancing the project risk management process. The innovative approach followed leverages on artificial logic and allows to consider the full life cycle of an investment proposal. In line with the evolution of company's mission and vision, the aim was to assess the project risk in a more comprehensive way by considering endogenous risks (such as permits, drilling, engineering, procurement, construction) jointly with exogenous ones (such as climate change, cyber security, credit, and country). The manuscript explains the methodology used, the results achieved, and the expected benefit for the company in adopting the innovative approach to risk engineering in supporting investments decisions.

scholarly journals Tanker Industry is More Ready against Cyber Threats

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Oruc ◽  
Fred Flinstone
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
The Other ◽  
Maritime Industry ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Cyber Threats ◽  
The World ◽  
Autonomous Ship ◽  
Cyber Risk

Cyber security in the maritime industry became crucial due to both academic researches and incidents. There are academic studies that show vulnerabilities in various navigation equipments such as GPS, ECDIS, AIS and ARPA-Radar. Additionally, there are different cyber incidents around the world. Developments in technology, autonomous ship projects, academic studies and cyber incidents in the sector put in action IMO. As per ISM Code, all shipping companies are mandatory to add “Guidelines on Maritime Cyber Risk Management” manual to their SMS manuals until 1st January 2021. Both OCIMF and CDI failed to be indifferent to developments that are important for tanker operators as well as IMO. While OCIMF added cybersecurity-related questions to vetting programs called TMSA 3 and VIQ 7, CDI also added cybersecurity-related items in SIR 9.8.1 edition. On the other hand, RightShip provides significant vetting service for dry cargo ships. “Inspection and Assessment Report” is issued by RigthShip for dry cargo ships. Questions related with cybersecurity was added with Revision No: 11 dated on 11th May 2017 in “Inspection and Assessment Report”. In this study, cyber security related questions which are asked during TMSA, SIRE and CDI vettings which play a critical role for commercial life of tanker firms, were analyzed. Moreover, questions and efficiency of RightShip that offers vetting service for dry cargo ships, were assessed to maritime cyber security. Also, cybersecurity-related questions in vetting questionnaires were interpreted by the author. These comments rely on benchmarking meetings among tanker operators where the author personally attended, and interview with key persons. Noted observations during vettings may negatively impact both commercial life and reputation of the tanker operators. That’s why the firm names and interviewee names were kept confidential. In this study, it was seen that although IMO demanded verification of cyber security-related implementations for the ship operators until 1st January 2021, this process started earlier for tanker operators.

The Road to Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

2013 ◽  
pp. 47-61
Author(s):  
Michel Rudnianski ◽  
Milos Kravcik
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Thinking ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
The Road ◽  
Core Competences ◽  
The One

In an environment characterized by an ever-increasing flow of data and resulting complexity, the development of intelligence analysis is of core importance. After a brief analysis of three core competences (data processing, empathy, critical thinking), decision making issues are addressed through considering on the one hand cognitive and psychological biases, and on the other hand methodologies based on instrumental rationality. Core factors for the development of critical thinking are then discussed before a specific tool of Game Theory, called Games of Deterrence, is introduced based on bounded rationality. An example of Games of Deterrence’s application to critical thinking is given through using these games to model argumentation. Finally, on the basis of the method adopted, a framework is proposed for building a serious game devoted to critical thinking and intelligence analysis.

scholarly journals INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IB RISK MANAGEMENT SKILLS ON THE BASIS OF DECISION-MAKING THEORY

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 155-165
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Buriachok ◽  
Svitlana Shevchenko ◽  
Yuliia Zhdanovа ◽  
Pavlo Skladannyi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Practical Skills ◽  
Management Skills ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Interdisciplinary Exchange

This article is devoted to the problem of readiness of students majoring in 125 Cybersecurity at Borys Hrinchenko Kyiv University to manage information security risks (IS) based on the decision-making theory. The interdisciplinary approach in education, namely, the integration of the disciplines "Risk Theory" and "Decision Theory", allowed to implement in the educational process the formation of practical skills of risk management of future cybersecurity professionals. Based on the achievements of didactics and psychological theories, the analysis of concepts in the field of interdisciplinary methodology is carried out and the relevance and significance of its introduction into the educational process of institution of higher education is substantiated. The peculiarities of the organization of the educational process of training bachelors of information and cyber security in the context of an interdisciplinary approach are described. The elements of the methodology of formation of practical skills of students to make managerial decisions in the conditions of risk on the basis of interdisciplinary principles are developed, theoretically presented and substantiated. It is proved that interdisciplinary exchange, integration of theoretical knowledge of disciplines contribute to new fundamental results, create preconditions for the development of practical skills, provide a holistic image of training future specialists in information and cyber security.

A Bird in the Hand Isn’t Good for Long

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Scherbaum ◽  
Simon Frisch ◽  
Maja Dshemuchadse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Control ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Control Processes ◽  
Folk Wisdom ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. Folk wisdom tells us that additional time to make a decision helps us to refrain from the first impulse to take the bird in the hand. However, the question why the time to decide plays an important role is still unanswered. Here we distinguish two explanations, one based on a bias in value accumulation that has to be overcome with time, the other based on cognitive control processes that need time to set in. In an intertemporal decision task, we use mouse tracking to study participants’ responses to options’ values and delays which were presented sequentially. We find that the information about options’ delays does indeed lead to an immediate bias that is controlled afterwards, matching the prediction of control processes needed to counter initial impulses. Hence, by using a dynamic measure, we provide insight into the processes underlying short-term oriented choices in intertemporal decision making.

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