Critical Risk Path Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-73
Author(s):  
Chi Iromuanya ◽  
Kathleen M. Hargiss ◽  
Caroline Howard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
The United States ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Process Improvements ◽  
Multinational Organizations ◽  
Management Agency

Existing approaches to risk management in construction procurement primarily dwell on strategies designed for commonly identifiable risk factors in typical project environments. Commonly identifiable risk factors would include too early or late material delivery - a condition typically ameliorated by implementing a Just In Time (JIT) plan; inferior construction materials typically mitigated by employing trusted vendors; or ineffective contractors primarily avoided by the use of experienced contractors. The purpose of this paper is to present a coherent model for procurement risk management for construction and infrastructure development projects within the context of dynamic project environments - complex, or chaotic. For the purpose of this study, a critical risk path activity is one in which a delay of activity completion not only leads to project delay, but does so in a manner that may be fatal to project or at best, far greater than the actual delay. The study incorporates observations and theory with practical application for improving initiatives by emergency infrastructure development response organizations such as FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and USACE (US Army Corps of Engineers) in the United States, the NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) in Nigeria, or ANDMA (Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority) etc. This study presents risk response plans aimed at improving the potential occurrence of positive risk aspects while reducing, or eliminating the same for negative risk occurrences. This study explored material, equipment, and skilled labor procurement strategies related to project risk management from the perspectives of scheduling, cost, and quality - three factors often referred to as the triple project constraints. It identified gaps within specific national and multinational organizations’ approaches, and provided detailed recommendations for process improvements from the procurement management perspective to ensure the potential for successful project outcomes in unstable project conditions.

Critical Risk Path Method

2015 ◽  
pp. 572-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Iromuanya ◽  
Kathleen M. Hargiss ◽  
Caroline Howard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Process Improvements ◽  
Multinational Organizations ◽  
Us Army ◽  
Management Agency

Existing approaches to risk management in construction procurement primarily dwell on strategies designed for commonly identifiable risk factors in typical project environments. Commonly identifiable risk factors would include too early or late material delivery - a condition typically ameliorated by implementing a Just In Time (JIT) plan; inferior construction materials typically mitigated by employing trusted vendors; or ineffective contractors primarily avoided by the use of experienced contractors. The purpose of this paper is to present a coherent model for procurement risk management for construction and infrastructure development projects within the context of dynamic project environments - complex, or chaotic. For the purpose of this study, a critical risk path activity is one in which a delay of activity completion not only leads to project delay, but does so in a manner that may be fatal to project or at best, far greater than the actual delay. The study incorporates observations and theory with practical application for improving initiatives by emergency infrastructure development response organizations such as FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and USACE (US Army Corps of Engineers) in the United States, the NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) in Nigeria, or ANDMA (Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority) etc. This study presents risk response plans aimed at improving the potential occurrence of positive risk aspects while reducing, or eliminating the same for negative risk occurrences. This study explored material, equipment, and skilled labor procurement strategies related to project risk management from the perspectives of scheduling, cost, and quality - three factors often referred to as the triple project constraints. It identified gaps within specific national and multinational organizations' approaches, and provided detailed recommendations for process improvements from the procurement management perspective to ensure the potential for successful project outcomes in unstable project conditions.

WHAT RECENT HHFT DERAILMENT FIRES TELL US

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 2078-2095
Author(s):  
Wade A. Narin van Court ◽  
Michael S. Hildebrand ◽  
Gregory G. Noll
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transportation Safety ◽  
Crude Oils ◽  
Management Agency ◽  
News Reports ◽  
High Hazard ◽  
High Concentrations

ABSTRACT ID: 2017-145. In July 2016, TRC Environmental Corporation (TRC) and Hildebrand and Noll Associates, Inc. (HNA) were requested to develop planning guidance on train derailments involving large volumes/high concentrations of denatured ethanol for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA). As part of this project, as well as similar projects conducted by HNA for other clients, TRC and HNA assessed current firefighting strategies for the release of ethanol and/or crude oil from High Hazard Flammable Trains (HHFT) and developed the planning assumptions necessary to prepare for these types of incidents. For these projects, studies and in-depth analyses of 27 HHFT derailments resulting in tank cars breaches that occurred in the United States and Canada involving denatured ethanol1 (ethanol) and/or crude oil2 from 2006 through 2015 were performed. The analyses were primarily based on the information from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), and/or Transport Canada (TC) databases, with supplemental information from news reports in some cases. The objective of these analyses was to identify key planning assumptions that would be used in developing appropriate firefighting strategies by focusing on the number and types of cars derailed, approximate train speeds at the time of the derailment, number of cars breached, amount of product released, and whether or not the released product caught fire. Additionally, the studies included obtaining and reviewing information on the properties and characteristics of ethanol, crude oils, and other Class 3 flammable materials, as well as information for railroad tank cars. Insights and understandings gained from these studies were used to further develop the firefighting strategies for HHFT derailment fires.

Review of the State of the Art in Analysis of the Economics of Water Resources Infrastructure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Jeuland
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Interdisciplinary Collaboration ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Water Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Water Control ◽  
Methodological Innovation

Water resources represent an essential input to most human activities, but harnessing them requires significant infrastructure. Such water control allows populations to cope with stochastic water availability, preserving uses during droughts while protecting against the ravages of floods. Economic analysis is particularly valuable for helping to guide infrastructure investment choices, and for comparing the relative value of so called hard and soft (noninfrastructure) approaches to water management. The historical evolution of the tools for conducting such economic analysis is considered. Given the multimillennial history of human reliance on water infrastructure, it may be surprising that economic assessments of its value are a relatively recent development. Owing to the need to justify the rapid deployment of major public-sector financing outlays for water infrastructure in the early 20th century, government agencies in the United States—the Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation—were early pioneers in developing these applications. Their work faced numerous technical challenges, first addressed in the drafting of the cost-benefit norms of the “Green Book.” Subsequent methodological innovation then worked to address a suite of challenges related to nonmarket uses of water, stochastic hydrology, water systems interdependencies, the social opportunity cost of capital, and impacts on secondary markets, as well as endogenous sociocultural feedbacks. The improved methods that have emerged have now been applied extensively around the world, with applications increasingly focused on the Global South where the best infrastructure development opportunities remain today. The dominant tools for carrying out such economic analyses are simulation or optimization hydroeconomic models (HEM), but there are also other options: economy wide water-economy models (WEMs), sociohydrological models (SHMs), spreadsheet-based partial equilibrium cost-benefit models, and others. Each of these has different strengths and weaknesses. Notable innovations are also discussed. For HEMs, these include stochastic, fuzz, and robust optimization, respectively, as well as co-integration with models of other sectors (e.g., energy systems models). Recent cutting-edge work with WEMs and spreadsheet-based CBA models, meanwhile, has focused on linking these tools with spatially resolved HEMs. SHMs have only seen limited application to infrastructure valuation problems but have been useful for illuminating the paradox of flood management infrastructure increasing the incidence and severity of flood damages, and for explaining the co-evolution of water-based development and environmental concerns, which ironically then devalues the original infrastructure. Other notable innovations are apparent in multicriteria decision analysis, and in game-theoretic modeling of noncooperative water institutions. These advances notwithstanding, several issues continue to challenge accurate and helpful economic appraisal of water infrastructure and should be the subject of future investigations in this domain. These include better assessment of environmental and distributional impacts, incorporation of empirically based representations of costs and benefits, and greater attention to the opportunity costs of infrastructure. Existing tools are well evolved from those of a few decades ago, supported by enhancements in scientific understanding and computational power. Yet, they do appear to systematically produce inflated estimations of the net benefits of water infrastructure. Tackling existing shortcomings will require continued interdisciplinary collaboration between economists and scholars from other disciplines, to allow leveraging of new theoretical insights, empirical data analyses, and modeling innovations.

How do emergency managers use social media platforms?

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 251 ◽  
Author(s):  
DeeDee M. Bennett, PhD
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
General Public ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Public ◽  
Management Agency ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Social Media Platforms

Social media platforms are increasingly becoming a useful tool for victims, humanitarians, volunteers, and the general public to communicate during disasters. Research has shown that there are multiple advantages to using social media and the applicability of these platforms crosses several different types of disasters (human-caused, natural, and terrorist) here in the United States and abroad. However, some emergency management agencies have been reluctant to use social media as one of their many communications tools. In this study, the usefulness of social media for emergency management was examined over a 30-day period following a series of tornadoes. Using an observational approach, the public posts disseminated from an emergency management agency were analyzed to determine how two social media platforms were used. The findings show how emergency management agencies could leverage the connectedness of social media to reach victims and make unlikely partnerships.

scholarly journals The political ecology of climate adaptation assistance: Alaska Natives, displacement, and relocation

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Shearer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Political Ecology ◽  
Alaska Native ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Alaska Natives ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
Army Corps

Although much research on climate change has focused on its disproportionate effects on the Global South, communities—particularly indigenous populations—within "developed" nations in the Global North can also face significant effects and inadequate assistance. One example is the native village and city of Kivalina in northwest Alaska. Through a case study of Kivalina, this article explores the gaps in U.S. policy for relocating Alaska Natives due to the effects of climate change. There is currently no policy in place—within the United States or internationally—for the resettlement of communities displaced by climate change. And in the United States there is no lead agency in charge of relocating displaced communities, despite several U.S. government reports stating that at least four Alaska Native villages, including Kivalina, must be resettled due to warming Arctic temperatures and erosion. This leaves government agencies in charge of assisting villages like Kivalina, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers, who are responsible for helping ensure Kivalina's safety but are not empowered to innovate new procedures and holistically address what is an unprecedented problem: climate change. This has left Kivalina in what is termed here an administrative orbit, with residents made to work their way through a patchwork of various government programs and procedures that are time-consuming and often insufficient. In exploring these intra-national inequities, this article examines how a protocol specifically designed for those displaced by climate change, such as "climigration," could be merged with existing government efforts around emergency management to help prevent disasters before they occur, and to protect at-risk communities like Kivalina.Keywords: Disaster management; Alaska: environmentally induced migration; indigenous studies; resilience; displacement; relocation.

scholarly journals International Guidelines on Natural and Nature-Based Features for Flood Risk Management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Bridges ◽  
Jeffrey King ◽  
Johnathan Simm ◽  
Michael Beck ◽  
Georganna Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Guidance Document ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Human Engineering ◽  
International Guidelines ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Resilient Communities

To deliver infrastructure that sustain our communities, economy, and environment, we must innovate, modernize, and even revolutionize our approach to infrastructure development. Change takes courage, but as one starts down the path of innovation, what was once novel becomes more familiar, more established. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is walking this path with our partners through the Engineering With Nature (EWN) Initiative, integrating human engineering with natural systems. The International Guidelines on Natural and Nature-Based Features for Flood Risk Management are the next step toward revolutionary infrastructure development—a set of real-world guidelines to help familiarize us with what was once novel. USACE and collaborators around the world have been building, learning, and documenting the best practices for constructing Natural and Nature-Based Features (NNBF) for decades. The consolidation of these lessons into a single guidance document gives decision-makers and practitioners a much-needed resource to pursue, consider, and apply NNBF for flood risk management while expanding value through infrastructure. Relationships and partnerships are vital ingredients for innovation and progress. The NNBF Guidelines was achieved because of the strong relationships in the nature-based engineering community. The magnitude and diversity of contributors to the NNBF Guidelines have resulted in a robust resource that provides value beyond a single agency, sector, or nation. Similarly, the work of incorporating NNBF into projects will require us to strengthen our relationships across organizations, mandates, and missions to achieve resilient communities. I hope you are inspired by the collaborative achievement of the NNBF Guidelines and will draw from this resource to develop innovative solutions to current and future flood risk management challenges. There is a lot we can achieve together along the path of revolutionary infrastructure development.

The Effects of Decision Aid Orientation on Risk Factor Identification and Audit Test Planning

2002 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean C. Bedard ◽  
Lynford E. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Audit Planning ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

In auditing, risk management involves identifying client facts or issues that may affect engagement risk, and planning evidence-gathering strategies accordingly. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether auditors' identification of risk factors and planning of audit tests is affected by decision aid orientation, i.e., a “negative” focus wherein client risk and its consequences are emphasized, or a “positive” focus where such factors are not emphasized. Specifically, we expect that auditors will identify more risk factors using a negatively oriented risk identification decision aid, but only when engagement risk is relatively high. We address this issue in the context of auditors' knowledge of actual clients, manipulating decision aid orientation as negative or positive in a matched-pair design. Results show that auditors using the negative decision aid orientation identify more risk factors than do those using a positive orientation, for their higher-risk clients. We also find that decisions to apply substantive tests are more directly linked to specific risk factors identified than to direct risk assessments. Further, our results show that auditors with repeat engagement experience with the client identify more risk factors. The findings of this study imply that audit firms may improve their risk management strategies through simple changes in the design of decision aids used to support audit planning.

Convective Storms and the Insurance Industry: Challenges and Opportunities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten D. Orwig
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Property Values ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
The United States ◽  
Building Code ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Insured Loss

Convective storms affect countries worldwide, with billions in losses and dozens of fatalities every year. They are now the key insured loss driver in the United States, even after considering the losses sustained by tropical cyclones in 2017. Since 2008, total insured losses from convective storms have exceeded $10 billion per year. Additionally, these losses continue to increase year over year. Key loss drivers include increased population, buildings, vehicles, and property values. However, other loss drivers relate to construction materials and practices, as well as building code adoption and enforcement. The increasing loss trends pose a number of challenges for the insurance industry and broader society. These challenges are discussed, and some recommendations are presented.

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