Real-Time Estimation of System Reliability Integrating Sensor-Driven Prognostic Model with Modular Approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 494-495 ◽  
pp. 989-992
Author(s):  
Yong Jian Tao
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Modular Approach ◽  
Railway Transportation ◽  
Practical Applications

Real-time reliability estimation is very significant for system operation safety, particularly in railway transportation system. This paper proposes a method, integrating sensor-driven prognostic model with modular approach, to accurate estimate system real-time reliability. Modular approach is utilized to divide system fault tree into independent subtrees (modulars), and solves system reliability using Binary Decision Diagrams and Bayesian Networks according to their characteristics. Sensor-driven prognostic models use in situ sensor data from system components to compute their failure density functions or reliability functions, and continuously update system reliability. The method for system reliability assessment presented in this paper, integrating sensor-driven prognostic model with modular approach can overcome static characteristics of reliability analysis, and better correspond to practical applications.

scholarly journals Real-Time Reconstruction of Contaminant Dispersion from Sparse Sensor Observations with Gappy POD Method

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheming Tong ◽  
Yue Li
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Complex Geometry ◽  
Sensor Placement ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Real Time Control ◽  
Time Control ◽  
Gappy Pod

Real-time estimation of three-dimensional field data for enclosed spaces is critical to HVAC control. This task is challenging, especially for large enclosed spaces with complex geometry, due to the nonuniform distribution and nonlinear variations of many environmental variables. Moreover, constructing and maintaining a network of sensors to fully cover the entire space is very costly, and insufficient sensor data might deteriorate system performance. Facing such a dilemma, gappy proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) offers a solution to provide three-dimensional field data with a limited number of sensor measurements. In this study, a gappy POD method for real-time reconstruction of contaminant distribution in an enclosed space is proposed by combining the POD method with a limited number of sensor measurements. To evaluate the gappy POD method, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is utilized to perform a numerical simulation to validate the effectiveness of the gappy POD method in reconstructing contaminant distributions. In addition, the optimal sensor placement is given based on a quantitative metric to maximize the reconstruction accuracy, and the sensor placement constraints are also considered during the sensor design process. The gappy POD method is found to yield accurate reconstruction results. Further works will include the implementation of real-time control based on the POD method.

A New Real-time Method for Sailboat Performance Estimation Based on Leeway Modeling

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronan Douguet ◽  
Jean-Philippe Diguet ◽  
Johann Laurent ◽  
Yann Riou
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Loop Model ◽  
Specific Step ◽  
Real Time Estimation

This paper presents new methods for real time estimation of leeway and ocean current, which are based on boat displacements. We propose two solutions that rely on several types of Kalman filters. The first one uses the empirical leeway definition and allows finding the key parameter of this formula. The solution works properly if the error of the formula of leeway remains limited. The second solution takes advantage of an additional sensor and we compare three methods to linearize boat displacements, which are based on a closed-loop model including cascaded filters. These methods are tested on simulation and on real data collected with a maxi multihull. The results first validate the use of a DVL sensor for leeway estimation but also show that it requires the implementation of a complex and specific step of signal processing. Secondly our study demonstrates the relevancy of the closed-loop approach and shows that a solution, based on UKF filters, provides a relevant method to cope with accuracy and stability in case of sensor data outage.

A machine for real-time estimation of the tribological characteristics of materials

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 61-65
Author(s):  
M. V. Abramchuk ◽  
R. V. Pechenko ◽  
K. A. Nuzhdin ◽  
V. M. Musalimov
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Tribological Characteristics ◽  
Continuous Processing ◽  
Friction Machine ◽  
Dynamic Friction Coefficient ◽  
Displacement Sensors ◽  
Frictional Interaction ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Automated Quality Control

A reciprocating friction machine Tribal-T intended for automated quality control of the rubbing surfaces of tribopairs is described. The distinctive feature of the machine consists in implementation of the forced relative motion due to the frictional interaction of the rubbing surfaces fixed on the drive and conjugate platforms. Continuous processing of the signals from displacement sensors is carried out under conditions of continuous recording of mutual displacements of loaded tribopairs using classical approaches of the theory of automatic control to identify the tribological characteristics. The machine provides consistent visual real time monitoring of the parameters. The MATLAB based computer technologies are actively used in data processing. The calculated tribological characteristics of materials, i.e., the dynamic friction coefficient, damping coefficient and measure of the surface roughness, are presented. The tests revealed that a Tribal-T reciprocating friction machine is effective for real-time study of the aforementioned tribological characteristics of materials and can be used for monitoring of the condition of tribo-nodes of machines and mechanisms.

Onboard Real-time Estimation of Mean Orbital Elements with Atmospheric Drag

2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 1722
Author(s):  
Zhao-Wei SUN ◽  
Wei-Chao ZHONG ◽  
Shi-Jie ZHANG ◽  
Jian ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Atmospheric Drag ◽  
Orbital Elements ◽  
Real Time Estimation

scholarly journals A Novel Rail-Network Hardware Simulator for Embedded System Programming

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Balaji M ◽  
Chandrasekaran M ◽  
Vaithiyanathan Dhandapani
Keyword(s):  
Embedded Systems ◽  
Embedded System ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Real World ◽  
Time Constraints ◽  
Network Simulator ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Rail Network ◽  
Knowledge Enhancement

A Novel Rail-Network Hardware with simulation facilities is presented in this paper. The hardware is designed to facilitate the learning of application-oriented, logical, real-time programming in an embedded system environment. The platform enables the creation of multiple unique programming scenarios with variability in complexity without any hardware changes. Prior experimental hardware comes with static programming facilities that focus the students’ learning on hardware features and programming basics, leaving them ill-equipped to take up practical applications with more real-time constraints. This hardware complements and completes their learning to help them program real-world embedded systems. The hardware uses LEDs to simulate the movement of trains in a network. The network has train stations, intersections and parking slots where the train movements can be controlled by using a 16-bit Renesas RL78/G13 microcontroller. Additionally, simulating facilities are provided to enable the students to navigate the trains by manual controls using switches and indicators. This helps them get an easy understanding of train navigation functions before taking up programming. The students start with simple tasks and gradually progress to more complicated ones with real-time constraints, on their own. During training, students’ learning outcomes are evaluated by obtaining their feedback and conducting a test at the end to measure their knowledge acquisition during the training. Students’ Knowledge Enhancement Index is originated to measure the knowledge acquired by the students. It is observed that 87% of students have successfully enhanced their knowledge undergoing training with this rail-network simulator.

scholarly journals Improvement of Reliability Determination Performance of Real Time Kinematic Solutions Using Height Trajectory

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 657
Author(s):  
Aoki Takanose ◽  
Yoshiki Atsumi ◽  
Kanamu Takikawa ◽  
Junichi Meguro
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Height Variation ◽  
Position Information ◽  
Real Time Kinematic ◽  
Evaluation Test

Autonomous driving support systems and self-driving cars require the determination of reliable vehicle positions with high accuracy. The real time kinematic (RTK) algorithm with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is generally employed to obtain highly accurate position information. Because RTK can estimate the fix solution, which is a centimeter-level positioning solution, it is also used as an indicator of the position reliability. However, in urban areas, the degradation of the GNSS signal environment poses a challenge. Multipath noise caused by surrounding tall buildings degrades the positioning accuracy. This leads to large errors in the fix solution, which is used as a measure of reliability. We propose a novel position reliability estimation method by considering two factors; one is that GNSS errors are more likely to occur in the height than in the plane direction; the other is that the height variation of the actual vehicle travel path is small compared to the amount of movement in the horizontal directions. Based on these considerations, we proposed a method to detect a reliable fix solution by estimating the height variation during driving. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, an evaluation test was conducted in an urban area of Tokyo. According to the evaluation test, a reliability judgment rate of 99% was achieved in an urban environment, and a plane accuracy of less than 0.3 m in RMS was achieved. The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed method is higher than that of the conventional fix solution, demonstratingits effectiveness.

scholarly journals The development and validation of prognostic models for overall survival in the presence of missing data in the training dataset: a strategy with a detailed example

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kara-Louise Royle ◽  
David A. Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Prognostic Index ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
Test Dataset ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Background The United Kingdom Myeloma Research Alliance (UK-MRA) Myeloma Risk Profile is a prognostic model for overall survival. It was trained and tested on clinical trial data, aiming to improve the stratification of transplant ineligible (TNE) patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. Missing data is a common problem which affects the development and validation of prognostic models, where decisions on how to address missingness have implications on the choice of methodology. Methods Model building The training and test datasets were the TNE pathways from two large randomised multicentre, phase III clinical trials. Potential prognostic factors were identified by expert opinion. Missing data in the training dataset was imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Univariate analysis fitted Cox proportional hazards models in each imputed dataset with the estimates combined by Rubin’s rules. Multivariable analysis applied penalised Cox regression models, with a fixed penalty term across the imputed datasets. The estimates from each imputed dataset and bootstrap standard errors were combined by Rubin’s rules to define the prognostic model. Model assessment Calibration was assessed by visualising the observed and predicted probabilities across the imputed datasets. Discrimination was assessed by combining the prognostic separation D-statistic from each imputed dataset by Rubin’s rules. Model validation The D-statistic was applied in a bootstrap internal validation process in the training dataset and an external validation process in the test dataset, where acceptable performance was pre-specified. Development of risk groups Risk groups were defined using the tertiles of the combined prognostic index, obtained by combining the prognostic index from each imputed dataset by Rubin’s rules. Results The training dataset included 1852 patients, 1268 (68.47%) with complete case data. Ten imputed datasets were generated. Five hundred twenty patients were included in the test dataset. The D-statistic for the prognostic model was 0.840 (95% CI 0.716–0.964) in the training dataset and 0.654 (95% CI 0.497–0.811) in the test dataset and the corrected D-Statistic was 0.801. Conclusion The decision to impute missing covariate data in the training dataset influenced the methods implemented to train and test the model. To extend current literature and aid future researchers, we have presented a detailed example of one approach. Whilst our example is not without limitations, a benefit is that all of the patient information available in the training dataset was utilised to develop the model. Trial registration Both trials were registered; Myeloma IX-ISRCTN68454111, registered 21 September 2000. Myeloma XI-ISRCTN49407852, registered 24 June 2009.

scholarly journals Temperature and Relative Humidity Profile Retrieval from Fengyun-3D/HIRAS in the Arctic Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1884
Author(s):  
Jingjing Hu ◽  
Yansong Bao ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
George P. Petropoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
The Arctic Region

The acquisition of real-time temperature and relative humidity (RH) profiles in the Arctic is of great significance for the study of the Arctic’s climate and Arctic scientific research. However, the operational algorithm of Fengyun-3D only takes into account areas within 60°N, the innovation of this work is that a new technique based on Neural Network (NN) algorithm was proposed, which can retrieve these parameters in real time from the Fengyun-3D Hyperspectral Infrared Radiation Atmospheric Sounding (HIRAS) observations in the Arctic region. Considering the difficulty of obtaining a large amount of actual observation (such as radiosonde) in the Arctic region, collocated ERA5 data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and HIRAS observations were used to train the neural networks (NNs). Brightness temperature and training targets were classified using two variables: season (warm season and cold season) and surface type (ocean and land). NNs-based retrievals were compared with ERA5 data and radiosonde observations (RAOBs) independent of the NN training sets. Results showed that (1) the NNs retrievals accuracy is generally higher on warm season and ocean; (2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of retrieved profiles is generally slightly higher in the RAOB comparisons than in the ERA5 comparisons, but the variation trend of errors with height is consistent; (3) the retrieved profiles by the NN method are closer to ERA5, comparing with the AIRS products. All the results demonstrated the potential value in time and space of NN algorithm in retrieving temperature and relative humidity profiles of the Arctic region from HIRAS observations under clear-sky conditions. As such, the proposed NN algorithm provides a valuable pathway for retrieving reliably temperature and RH profiles from HIRAS observations in the Arctic region, providing information of practical value in a wide spectrum of practical applications and research investigations alike.All in all, our work has important implications in broadening Fengyun-3D’s operational implementation range from within 60°N to the Arctic region.

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