ABSTRACT
Oil behavior and fate have been simulated extensively by several spill models. These simulations can be greatly enhanced by the use of a coupled three-dimensional model of currents and water properties to determine oil transport and weathering, both on the water surface and in the water column. Several physical and chemical processes such as vertical dispersion in response to wave action, resurfacing when waves die down, sinking through loss of volatiles and dissolution are essential in assessing the impact of an oil spill on the environment. Dissolution is especially important, considering the known toxicity of several of the constituents of liquid hydrocarbons. For this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal British Columbia was coupled to an oil trajectory and weathering model in order to simulate the complete fate and behaviour of surface, shoreline-retained, dissolved, sunken and dispersed oil. Utilization of a three-dimensional model is the key to adequately modelling the transport of a spill in an estuarine region such as in the Strait of Georgia, B.C., where the distribution of currents and water properties is strongly affected by estuarine processes: the Fraser River enters at the surface and oceanic waters from the Pacific enter as a deep inflow.
Three-dimensional currents and water properties were provided by the hydrodynamic model, H3D, a semi-implicit model using a staggered Arakawa grid and variable number of layers in the vertical direction to resolve near-surface processes. Waves were simulated using the wave model SWAN. Winds were obtained from the local network of coastal light stations and wind buoys. Stochastic modelling was conducted first, using only surface currents, to determine probabilistic maps of the oil trajectory on water and statistical results were extracted, such as the amount of shoreline oiled and the amount of oil evaporated, both for the ensemble of simulations constituting the stochastic simulation, as well as for any particular individual simulation. Deterministic scenarios were then selected and the fate of the oil, such as the dissolved and sunken fractions, was tracked over a 14 day period on the three-dimensional grid. This method has been used for environmental impact assessment and spill response planning.
Forecasting of Surface Currents via Correcting Wind Stress with Assimilation of High-Frequency Radar Data in a Three-Dimensional Model
