Research on Three-Dimensional Description and Measurement of Government Investment Project Risk

2010 ◽  
Vol 108-111 ◽  
pp. 741-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Gui Ding ◽  
Xing Zhi Liu ◽  
Hua Sun

With the increase in the size of government investment projects, an increasing number of uncertain factors are involved and the risks are increasingly complex, the project risks can accurately describe and measure the project will directly affect the investment decision-making and project management. To this end, respectively, analyze two-dimensional method and multi-dimensional method and Put forward a three-dimensional description method, describing project risk thoroughly from the probability, losses as well as manageability. On this basis the risk function is established, and finally an example is given. The results showed that three-dimensional structure not only take into account both qualitative and quantitative, at the same time taking into account the subjectivity and objectivity of risk, a more accurate reflection of the true face of government investment project risk.

Author(s):  
Galina Shevchenko ◽  
Leonas Ustinovichius

The paper investigates the investment decision–making, risk assessment and management problems faced by all participants of the investment process in construction. The main object of paper – risk of investment projects in construction. Companies often have to make investment decisions under uncertainty and therefore the study emphasizes the need, for carryng out investigations, developing metodology and intelectual decision making system that would holistically assess the whole available information to the investment project, increase the accuracy of risk assessment, improve project information management, reduce project risk factors for the occurrence of potential and would make informed investment decisions. The created and described verbal analysis method of the real alternatyve classification was integrated into the proposed model and implemented in practice.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dijana Kremenović

Decisions about the choice of investment projects can significantly affect the destiny of the company, its competitive position in the market, market participation, the direction of further technological development, and even the survival of the company. The aim of this paper is, in the conditions of the current economic reality, to point out the significance of the choice of methods of expressing the benefit of an investment project. In this sense, we have explained in detail all currently applicable methods for assessing the viability of investment projects on a cash basis, comparing the good and bad sides of all the methods presented. In this connection, we especially pointed out the importance of the time value of money. The decision to apply the capital budgeting process, certainly, is the decision of the company itself. However, the outcome of investment activity is borne by a wider circle of consumers, which should be a sufficient reason to encourage education and the application of current methods in this area. If you want to realistically look at the investment process and evaluate the justification of an investment project, it is necessary to identify and analyse the effects of exploitation of a particular investment. In order to ensure the realization of the company’s basic strategic goals and thus ensure its growth and development, it is necessary to make decisions in which the company will focus its investment activities on this investment projects whose effects will ensure the highest return on investment. This work deals with the complex issues of making adequate investment decisions using a method for assessing the viability of investment projects on a cash basis. Bearing in mind the significance of investment activity, we can conclude that for the purpose of making a good investment decision, it is necessary to realistically look at the entire investment process and assess the justification of the implementation of the investment project. In this sense, we identify, measure and quantify the overall effects of the realization of a particular investment. Capital budgeting for the purpose of making an investment decision today is a generally accepted concept in developed economies. There is no doubt that there are many disagreements regarding the choice of the methods of assessing the viability of investment investments, and then the selection of criteria within a certain method. However, it is quite certain that the rich experience of developed countries undoubtedly points to the need for capital budgeting, investment project management, with particular emphasis on the use of discounted methods for assessing the viability of investment investment and respecting both economic and non-economic effects. Implicit benefits that the application of capital budgeting brings to the overall growth and development of the company, in terms of reducing uncertainty in making investment decisions, easier ranking of investment projects, exact measurement of expected benefits, transparency of investment activity criteria, attracting investors and ultimately creating additional value and greater degree of realization of strategic company goals.With this work, we pointed out the fact that capital budgeting is crucial in the process of making an investment decision and in that way has influenced enterprises to seriously deal with the choice of the method of estimating the profitability of investment projects that will surely result in additional value for the company.


2019 ◽  
Vol 279 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
Martin Hotový

This paper presents the use of tools and approaches of system dynamics in the analysis of the efficiency of BIM tools implementation in relation to the management and planning of investments in the construction sector. The dynamic model based on the approach of system dynamics allows to simulate the impact rate (range) of BIM implementation in strategic investment decision-making in the construction sector. Based on the analysis, the key parameters critically affecting the large construction investment projects are determined. The proposed model is implemented as a submodel in the dynamic model designed for potential refinements in the strategic planning of the extent of investments into projects of civil infrastructure of the Czech Republic. The model allows to test different strategies in the virtual world before their implementation. The prediction of future developments based on the proposed model allows to streamline planning and decision-making processes.


Author(s):  
M. Stanojevic

In this chapter, a few software architectures and platforms are discussed in relation with their ability to cope with business integration problems in large, geographically dispersed companies. Of these architectures, the three-tier architecture has reached maturity and proved its usefulness in solving these problems. As an illustration of its usefulness, two successful applications of the three-tier architecture, based on Java 2 Platform Enterprise Edition (J2EE), solving business integration problems inherent to investment decision-making in large companies, Framework for Investment Decision Support (FIDES) and ProjectsAnywhere, are described in detail. For solving more complex business integration problems, Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), based on agent or Web services approach, is recommended. Hopefully, this chapter will provide concise information about architectures and platforms, and an insight into two complex applications based on them, that will be useful in developing other complex applications that face similar business integration problems.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Shevchenko ◽  
Leonas Ustinovichius ◽  
Dariusz Walasek

The growth of the company’s investment potential is closely associated with the evaluation of the attendant risks of the process, various influencing factors, and the expected results. Therefore, the analysis of a number of qualitative and quantitative criteria of the projects and risks, as well as the potential profit-making opportunities in the investment decision making is required. This paper analyzes a decision-making strategy based on qualitative estimates obtained by investigating the risks posed, the management methods used, and the application of the proposed methods for assessing the contractor’s risk in construction companies.


Author(s):  
BangRae Lee ◽  
EunSoo Sohn ◽  
DongKyu Won ◽  
WoonDong Yeo ◽  
KwangHoon Kim ◽  
...  

Precision medicine has received a lot of attention in recent years and we have not yet found any research cases that apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to investment decision making in this area. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relative efficiency of candidate technology sectors in order to determine priorities for government investment in precision medicine. The results of the efficiency analysis can be used as an important reference for government policy makers to determine the amount of government investment in the next year for each candidate technology sector. The candidate technology for government investment in precision medicine was decided for 23 sectors based on the data analysis and the opinions of expert committees. This study applies the input-oriented DEA in regard to 23 technology sectors, which is widely used to analyze relative efficiency in terms of inputs versus outputs and to enhance efficiency through the propositional reduction of inputs. The input variables include the government’s research and development (R&D) investment and forward and backward industry linkage effects. The output variables are the employment creation effect, value-added effect, number of Korean patents, and number of Korean papers. Our analysis results show that the 23 technology sectors in precision medicine overall have a high efficiency, with the exception of the biobank technology sector. Therefore, since the Biobank technology sector has strong infrastructure characteristics, it seems to require continuous investment. The efficiency of DEA is high in most precision medicine sectors; therefore, overall, investing in these technologies is expected to yield good benefits.


2014 ◽  
Vol 584-586 ◽  
pp. 2322-2325
Author(s):  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Li Hui Xiong

In recent years, governments at all levels invested unprecedented development in China, a large number of municipal engineering, infrastructure and industrial projects have been launched, government investment has greatly promoted economic growth. In the construction of urbanization in China in the future, government investment should not be underestimated. However, due to various reasons, the government investment project management exist many problems, which is not conducive to the preservation and appreciation of state assets, and which restricts the efficiency of resource use improvement. The major problems in the management of government -investment projects and the cause of the problem are analyzed, and then the measures for improvement are presented.


2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 633-653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadi Alkaraan

Purpose This paper aims to examine the adoption of conventional and emergent analysis techniques in Strategic Investment Decision-Making (SIDM) practices in large UK manufacturing companies. It aims to update the current knowledge on SIDM practices in large manufacturing companies. The research question underlying this study: Are recently developed analysis techniques (i.e. those that aim to integrate strategic and financial analyses) being used to evaluate strategic investment projects? Design/methodology/approach The research evidence underpinning this study was made up of primary and secondary data, quantitative and qualitative. Firstly, a survey consisting of a mailed formal standard questionnaire was conducted where each respondent is required to answer the same questions based on the same system of coded responses. Secondly, qualitative data was collected using the annual reports of selected companies. Disclosures were used as supplementary source of information using the explanatory notes and parenthetical disclosures accompanying companies’ financial reporting. Sources for these disclosures included management discussions, analyses of company strategy and risk and forward-looking reports regarding future performance and growth opportunities (such as mergers and acquisitions activities). Accordingly, companies’ disclosures were used in this study as an alternative method to semi-structured interviews to collect qualitative data. More recently, companies such as Rio Tinto have prepared strategic annual reports for 2017 against the UK Corporate Governance Code (version 2016). Findings The choice and use of financial analysis techniques and risk analysis techniques depend on the type of project being evaluated. Decision makers in large UK companies do not appear to use emergent analysis techniques widely. Pre-decision control mechanisms have significant influence on SIDM practices. This includes the changes of internal and external contextual factors, including organisational culture, organisational strategies, financial consideration, comprising formal approval governance mechanisms, regulatory and other compliance policies interact with companies’ internal control systems. Companies incorporate non-financial factors alongside quantitative analysis of strategic investments opportunities. Energy efficiency and carbon reduction are key imperatives of companies’ environmental management. These factors viewed by decision makers as significant factors relevant for compliance with legislation as well as maintaining companies’ legitimacy issues, sustainable business, experience with new technology and improved company image. Research limitations/implications High risk, ambiguity and complexity are key characteristics embedded in SIDM processes. Macroeconomic issues remain crucial factors in scanning and screening investment opportunities, as reported by this study. The early stage of SIDM processes requires modelling under macroeconomic scenarios and assumptions of both internal and external parameters. Key assumptions include: projections of economic growth; commodity prices and exchange rates, introduction of technological and productivity advancements; cost and supply parameters for major inputs. SIDM practices rooted on comprehensive knowledge and experience of the industry and markets to draw subjective judgements about the riskiness of prospective projects, but these are rarely formalized into their SIDM processes. Findings of this study, however, remain within the context of UK companies. This study has its own limitations due to its time, location, respondents and sample selection, the size and the sector of the selected companies and questions addressed. Findings of this study raise a call for future research to examine SIDM processes in different settings to explore the relative impact of various organisational control mechanisms on SIDM practices. Also, to examine the influence of contextual factors (such as national culture, political, legal and social factors) on organisational control mechanisms. SIDM practices and processes have received significant attention from researchers, yet there is a lack of evidence in the literature about how companies approach strategic decision-making regarding divestments of some of their strategic investments. This type of strategic decision-making is not less important than other types of SIDM practices. Practical implications SIDM practices reflect the art and science of steering and controlling organisational resources to achieve a desired strategy. To understand the factors that shape SIDM practices and align them to organisational strategy, more attention is required to the choice and design of pre-decision controls and to the important role of strategic management accounting tools over the more traditional financial analysis techniques that have formed the focus of much prior empirical research. Social implications Key environmental issues viewed by decision makers as significant factors relevant for compliance with legislation as well as maintaining companies’ legitimacy issues and company image. Originality/value Despite their perceived importance in this study, quantitative accounting controls may fail to connect with the kind of investment decision-making required to bring strategic success. Indeed, it has been widely noted that financial evaluation techniques are inadequate for assessing strategic investment proposals; they can only function as a guideline, as SIDM practices involve so many uncertainties, risks and judgements. A key insight from this study is that the achievement of integration between the firm’s strategic investment projects and the overall organizational strategy forms a critical pre-decision control on managerial behaviour at an early stage in SIDM practices. As many strategic investment decisions are one-off, non-repeatable decisions, the information needed to support their evaluation is likely to be similarly unique. Sound SIDM practices require the support of a large amount of varied information, a significant proportion of which is collected and analysed prior to potential capital investment projects being considered, such as information related to strategic goal setting, risk-adjusted hurdle rates and the design of appropriate organisational decision hierarchies.


2013 ◽  
Vol 860-863 ◽  
pp. 3082-3089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yang

Project risk management is a vital dimension of project management. Based on the theory of metasynthesis, this dissertation analyses the risk of some satellite navigation engineering project from three aspects of "time", "module" and "risk management logic". Taking this frame as outline, the paper forms a three-dimensional structure model and conducts the empirical research with approaches of grade holographic modelling method, AHP and various risk management techniques. At last, the study concludes some significant guidance on methodology and application for the satellite navigation engineering project.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Jason Kasozi

Africa is a potential domain for international business. However, numerous uncertainties characterize this environment and the challenge for multinationals remains the ability to assess the true value of an Africa-bound investment project. A telecommunications’ survey was conducted on Siemens Southern Africa (Siemens) and Mobile Telecommunications’ Network (MTN) and the following observations were made: (1) Approaches used by the businesses to value Africa-bound investments were not comprehensive and inclusive. (2) Neutrality existed to the suggestion that Africa is unique and that investment decisions should be customized to suit it. (3) Certain approaches used by the businesses were modified to suit pertaining investment circumstances thereby differing from literature, and (4), participants desired to learn new ways of improving this process suggesting dissatisfaction with the current norm. This paper presents the conflicting ideologies about the decision-making process for business expansion into Africa and suggests ways of improving the process.


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