Study on the Gray Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model about Dam-Break Consequences
The comprehensive evaluation of the dam-break consequences is an issue of crucial importance for defending natural disasters, protecting socio-economic and sustaining ecological development. The consequences of dam-break were analyzed, including life loss, economic loss and the social and environmental influence. The loss of life evaluation based on the improved Graham method was introduced. Depth, velocity and other hydraulic parameters of dam-break flood were obtained by the three-dimensional numerical simulation, which has proved to be a useful tool for dam-break consequences. AHP method was adopted to measure the weight of each factor. Grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of dam-break consequences was proposed. QING LINJING reservoir in Shenzhen was taken as a case. The results show that it will cause serious incidents once QING LINJING reservoir dam breaks.