scholarly journals Die kombinering van ekonomiese vooruitskattings in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks

1989 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-183
Author(s):  
C. B. Calitz ◽  
E. V.D.M. Smit
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Relative Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Combination Of Forecasts ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In the literature on forecasting, consensus has been reached about improved forecasting accuracy brought about by the combination of two or more forecasts for a given variable. No consensus, however, exists about the exact way in which the various forecasts in the combination should be weighed. The evidence points towards simple weighing schemes. The present study utilizes South African macro-economic forecasts published by seven forecasters on eight variables to evaluate the benefits to be gained from combining forecasts and to evaluate the relative accuracy of a number of combination schemes. The results confirm the current views on the combination of forecasts in so far as combining forecasts have led to increased accuracy in forecasting. It further confirms the viewpoint that a simple or weighted arithmetic average of individual forecasts seems to be acceptable as instruments for combining forecasts.

scholarly journals Hybrid Weighted Arithmetic and Geometric Aggregation Operator of Neutrosophic Cubic Sets for MADM

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilian Shi ◽  
Yue Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Aggregation Operator ◽  
Aggregation Operators ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Geometric Average ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making

Neutrosophic cubic sets (NCSs) can express complex multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) problems with its interval and single-valued neutrosophic numbers simultaneously. The weighted arithmetic average (WAA) and geometric average (WGA) operators are common aggregation operators for handling MADM problems. However, the neutrosophic cubic weighted arithmetic average (NCWAA) and neutrosophic cubic geometric weighted average (NCWGA) operators may result in some unreasonable aggregated values in some cases. In order to overcome the drawbacks of the NCWAA and NCWGA, this paper developed a new neutrosophic cubic hybrid weighted arithmetic and geometric aggregation (NCHWAGA) operator and investigates its suitability and effectiveness. Then, we established a MADM method based on the NCHWAGA operator. Finally, a MADM problem with neutrosophic cubic information was provided to illustrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals The Reconciliation of Multiple Conflicting Estimates: Entropy-Based and Axiomatic Approaches

Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 815
Author(s):  
João Rodrigues ◽  
Michael Lahr
Keyword(s):  
First Principles ◽  
Axiomatic Approach ◽  
Data Reconciliation ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Harmonic Average ◽  
Alternative Setting ◽  
Axiomatic Approaches ◽  
Reconciliation Method ◽  
The Ideal

When working with economic accounts it may occur that multiple estimates of a single datum exist, with different degrees of uncertainty or data quality. This paper addresses the problem of defining a method that can reconcile conflicting estimates, given best guess and uncertainty values. We proceeded from first principles, using two different routes. First, under an entropy-based approach, the data reconciliation problem is addressed as a particular case of a wider data balancing problem, and an alternative setting is found in which the multiple estimates are replaced by a single one. Afterwards, under an axiomatic approach, a set of properties is defined, which characterizes the ideal data reconciliation method. Under both approaches, the conclusion is that the formula for the reconciliation of best guesses is a weighted arithmetic average, with the inverse of uncertainties as weights, and that the formula for the reconciliation of uncertainties is a harmonic average.

Properties of comprehensive incidence degrees

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 426-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wei ◽  
Kefang Zeng
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Power Product ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Geometric Average ◽  
Weighted Geometric Average

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of comprehensive incidence degrees of closeness incidence degrees and similitude incidence degrees. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the new definitions of the closeness incidence degree and the similitude incidence degree, the properties of comprehensive incidence of closeness incidence and similitude incidence are studied in this paper. It is proved that weighted arithmetic average of two closeness incidence degrees as well as power product (including weighted geometric average) of two closeness incidence degrees is still closeness incidence degree; and arithmetic weighted average of two similitude incidence degrees as well as power product (including weighted geometric average) of two similitude incidence degrees is still similitude incidence degree. Mixed weighted arithmetic average of closeness incidence degree and similitude incidence degree and mixed power product (including weighted geometric average) of closeness incidence degree and similitude incidence degree are closeness incidence degrees. Findings – The result shows that the effect of closeness incidence degree is stronger than similitude incidence degree. As long as the weight of closeness incidence degree is not equal to zero, the comprehensive incidence degree results are closeness incidence degrees. Practical implications – Grey incidence degrees have been widely applied in many fields, such as the test of grey model's forecasting effect, the system analysis and so on. The obtained result in this paper is to illustrate two kinds of incidence degrees are incompatible, namely there does not exist both closeness and similitude incidence degree. Originality/value – The paper succeeds in showing that the attempt to get comprehensive incidence degree by arithmetic or geometric weighted average of closeness incidence degree and similitude incidence degree to reflect both closeness and similarity is in vain. And it is undoubtedly a new development in grey system theory.

Decision making method for evaluating logistics companies based on the ordered representation of the polygonal fuzziness1

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 3151-3166
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Li ◽  
Yujie Tao ◽  
Yanhong Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Euclidean Distance ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Relative Closeness ◽  
Negative Ideal Solution ◽  
Arbitrary Precision ◽  
Polygonal Fuzzy Numbers

A polygonal fuzzy numbers can describe fuzzy information by means of finite ordered real numbers. It not only overcomes the complexity of traditional fuzzy number operations, but also keeps some good properties of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and it can approximate general fuzzy numbers with arbitrary precision. In this paper, a weighted arithmetic average operator is defined by the ordered representation and its operations of the polygonal fuzzy numbers, and a new Euclidean distance for measuring the polygonal fuzzy numbers is given. Secondly, in view of cost attribute and benefit attributes, the polygonal fuzzy decision matrix is normalized, and the weighted Euclidean distance is used to solve the positive (negative) ideal solution and the relative closeness of the decision matrix, and then a new decision method is given. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed decision-making method is illustrated by an example of the evaluation of logistics companies by shopping websites.

scholarly journals Dombi Aggregation Operators of Linguistic Cubic Variables for Multiple Attribute Decision Making

Information ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueping Lu ◽  
Jun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Linguistic Variable ◽  
Operational Parameter ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Dombi Operations

A linguistic cubic variable (LCV) is comprised of interval linguistic variable and single-valued linguistic variable. An LCV contains decision-makers’ uncertain and certain linguistic judgments simultaneously. The advantage of the Dombi operators contains flexibility due to its changeable operational parameter. Although the Dombi operations have been extended to many studies to solve decision-making problems; the Dombi operations are not used for linguistic cubic variables (LCVs) so far. Hence, the Dombi operations of LCVs are firstly presented in this paper. A linguistic cubic variable Dombi weighted arithmetic average (LCVDWAA) operator and a linguistic cubic variable Dombi weighted geometric average (LCVDWGA) operator are proposed to aggregate LCVs. Then a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) method is developed in LCV setting on the basis of LCVDWAA and LCVDWGA operators. Finally, two illustrative examples about the optimal choice problems demonstrate the validity and the application of this method.

scholarly journals Application of the Method of Pairwise Comparisons When Combining Economic Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Surkov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Pairwise Comparisons ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Expert Information ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Economic Time ◽  
Economic Forecasts

The method of combining forecasts has already proven itself in practice as a reliable and effective way to improve the accuracy of economic forecasting. But this technique has several disadvantages. Today, one of the ways to improve the method of combining forecasts is to find the possibility of attracting expert information as a tool for correcting the obtained forecast results. This article is devoted to the use of an expert method of pairwise comparisons for constructing the weights of the combined forecast as one of the options for which you can use expert information when combining forecasts. The proposed methodology has been applied in practice for the economic time series of some products of industrial production in Russia. An assessment was made of the effectiveness of using the method of pairwise comparisons for combining forecasts, and based on the results obtained, a forecast of the development of the economic indicators under consideration was proposed.

scholarly journals Study on Hesitant Fuzzy Multiattribute Quality Evaluation Based on Surface Defect Information of Autobody Panels

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Mao ◽  
Qi Sun ◽  
Kun Gui
Keyword(s):  
Surface Quality ◽  
Surface Defect ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Surface Defects ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Score Function ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Set ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Subjective Weight

Surface defects of autobody panels have the greatest impact on the surface quality of the automobile body, but many enterprises lack a scientific and reasonable evaluation method of surface quality, relying solely on the subjective judgment of decision makers which will lead to an increase in the probability of misjudgment. In this paper, the subjective weight is determined by the genetic algorithm based on optimization, and the objective weight is determined by the improved deviation maximization method. Combining the hesitant fuzzy set theory, the hesitant fuzzy mixed weighted arithmetic average operator (HFHWA), and the score function, the surface defect information of the panel is quantified. On this basis, a complete set of hesitant fuzzy multiattribute evaluation model of surface defect information is proposed. Taking a batch of inner panels of the automobile door produced by A automobile enterprise as an example, five common defects including hidden pit, bump and scratch, rust, indentation pockmark, and ripple are selected as evaluation attributes to evaluate their surface quality, which verifies the validity and practicability of the model.

scholarly journals Validation of indicators of the nursing outcomes classification for hospitalized adults at risk of infection

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam de Abreu Almeida ◽  
Deborah Hein Seganfredo ◽  
Luciana Nabinger Menna Barreto ◽  
Amália Fátima Lucena
Keyword(s):  
University Hospital ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Content Validation ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Nursing Outcomes ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Nursing Outcomes Classification ◽  
Practice Teaching ◽  
Care Practices

This study aimed to validate the indicators of the Nursing Outcomes proposed by the Nursing Outcomes Classification for the diagnosis Risk of Infection. Content validation was performed according to 12 nurse experts from the clinical, surgical and intensive care units of a university hospital. The analysis was based on the weighted arithmetic average of the scores the experts assigned to each indicator assessed and scores that reached at least 0.80 were validated. Out of 132 proposed indicators, 67 were validated for eight nursing outcomes described for the diagnosis Risk of Infection, which had been validated in a previous study. The content validation process identified that the Nursing Outcomes Classification presents feasible results and indicators to evaluate and identify the best care practices. This study will support the implementation of the Nursing Outcomes Classification in clinical practice, teaching and research.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document