scholarly journals The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Kostelka ◽  
André Blais
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Group Mobilization ◽  
Election Studies

ABSTRACT Why has voter turnout declined in democracies all over the world? This article draws on findings from microlevel studies and theorizes two explanations: generational change and a rise in the number of elective institutions. The empirical section tests these hypotheses along with other explanations proposed in the literature—shifts in party/candidate competition, voting-age reform, weakening group mobilization, income inequality, and economic globalization. The authors conduct two analyses. The first analysis employs an original data set covering all post-1945 democratic national elections. The second studies individual-level data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and British, Canadian, and US national election studies. The results strongly support the generational change and elective institutions hypotheses, which account for most of the decline in voter turnout. These findings have important implications for a better understanding of the current transformations of representative democracy and the challenges it faces.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

Smartphones and Their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2019 ◽  
pp. 1203-1223
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

Smartphones and their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2017 ◽  
pp. 283-303
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

When Marriage Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110243
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Responsibility Attribution ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Level Data ◽  
European Election ◽  
Election Studies

Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.

Relating sediment supply to the morphological and hydro-meteorological characteristics of torrent catchments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxime Morel ◽  
Guillaume Piton ◽  
Caroline Le Bouteiller ◽  
Alexandre Mas ◽  
Guillaume Evin
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Sediment Retention ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Catchment Basin ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Data Set

<p>In mountain areas, the quantification of sediment yield is essential in the diagnosis of a torrential watershed. The objective of this study is to present a prediction method based on multivariate statistical models calibrated from an original data set covering nearly 130 torrential basins in the Northern French Alps. Data on sediment yield and occurrence of torrential events were collected on these catchments thanks to registries from sediment retention basins (average monitoring period of 20 years) and historical archives of the catchment basin managers. On these catchments, several morphological and hydro-meteorological characteristics were calculated (e.g. geological and sediment connectivity indices, the rate of connected eroding areas in the catchment, the Melton index, the slope of the fan, etc.) in order to relate them to sediment production and the frequency of occurrence of torrential events. These models allow the estimation of quantiles of the sediment yield in small torrent catchments. These models could be useful to evaluate sediment yield and the occurrence of torrential events on catchment not equipped with sedimentation structures.</p>

scholarly journals Introducing the Dynamic Destination Satisfaction Method: An Analytical Tool to Track Tourism Destination Satisfaction Trends with Repeated Cross-sectional Data

2020 ◽  
pp. 004728752095820
Author(s):  
Andrea Guizzardi ◽  
Marcello M. Mariani
Keyword(s):  
Large Data ◽  
System Level ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Tourism Destination ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Specific Attribute ◽  
The Matrix

This study introduces a new method, named Dynamic Destination Satisfaction Method (DDSME), to model tourists’ satisfaction with a destination (and its attributes), breaking it down into an individual-level component (linked to the specific individual tourists’ perceptions) and a system-level (time-related) component (common to all the tourists). Moreover, this work develops a matrix “entropy/trend accuracy” that destination managers can use to understand to what extent managing a specific attribute has increased tourists’ satisfaction with the destination over multiyear time spans. We test the innovative method on a large data set, covering the period 1997-2015 and including almost 0.8 million observations. By doing so, we analyze tourists’ satisfaction with tourism-related sectors and attributes of Italy as an inbound tourism destination and we use the matrix to map out destination attributes over time. The findings indicate that courtesy, art, and food are strategic attributes to enhance satisfaction in the long term.

scholarly journals A microanalysis of trade finance: German bank entry and coffee exports in Brazil, 1880–1913

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-389
Author(s):  
Wilfried Kisling
Keyword(s):  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Credit Constraints ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Trade Finance ◽  
German Bank ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Economic Studies ◽  
Bank Entry

Abstract The trade-finance nexus has enjoyed increasing interest in recent economic studies, but empirical evidence is scarce and studies from a historical perspective seem missing. This study analyses the effect of German bank entry on Brazilian coffee exports between 1880 and 1913 using firm-level data. I create an original data set on the yearly quantities of exported coffee and the credit received from the German Brasilianische Bank für Deutschland by export houses in Brazil. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I find that Brasilianische eased previously existing credit constraints, and that companies financed by Brasilianische exported significantly more than those that were not.

Always the Third Rail?

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 1068-1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Lynch ◽  
Mikko Myrskylä
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Public Pensions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Transfer Programs ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Social Risks ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Economic Analyses ◽  
Micro Foundations

Social transfer programs are thought to generate beneficiary groups who will act politically to defend “their” programs from retrenchment. But little empirical research has been conducted to either verify or disconfirm the micro foundations of this hypothesis, which lies at the heart of the “new social risks” thesis as well as many economic analyses of welfare state politics. This article tests empirically whether benefiting from public pensions leads individuals to greater support of the pension system status quo, net of other factors. It uses cross—data set imputation to combine cross-nationally comparable individual-level data on income from public pensions with political attitudes toward proposed pension reforms. The hypothesis that public pension systems create policy feedbacks of self-interested beneficiaries supporting further pension spending is not supported in any of 11 European countries in either 1992 or 2001.

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