Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (10) ◽  
pp. 1317-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan J. Dettrey ◽  
Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Context ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Presidential Democracies ◽  
Runoff Elections

Numerous studies indicate that political institutions play an important role in explaining variation in voter turnout across countries. The nuances of institutions unique to presidential elections have been largely overlooked, however, despite the different incentives they offer for voters to participate in elections. This article examines the effect that four presidential institutions had on voter turnout in presidential elections between 1974 and 2004—the timing of elections (whether concurrent or nonconcurrent), the power of the presidency, presidential electoral rules (plurality or majority runoff), and reelection rules. To isolate the effect of presidential institutions, this study controls for other likely influences on turnout, including the economic environment and the wider political context. It finds that (a) runoff elections dampen turnout whereas incumbency spurs it and (b) more powerful presidencies and elections, when held concurrently with legislative elections, have little effect on voter participation.

Presidential Institutions and Electoral Participation in Concurrent Elections in Latin America

2017 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Carreras
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concurrent Elections

Previous studies of voter turnout in Latin America have found weak and inconsistent evidence for the link between political institutions and electoral participation. In this article, I use data from an expanded dataset of voter turnout in Latin America (1980–2016) to show that institutions do have an impact on citizens’ decisions on whether or not to participate in concurrent elections. Whereas previous studies analyzed the effect of legislative institutions on voter turnout, this article estimates a series of models that demonstrate the impact of presidential institutions and the political context surrounding presidential elections on electoral participation. The findings suggest that when first-order (presidential) and second-order (legislative) elections take place concurrently, electoral participation is influenced primarily by presidential institutions (term length, presidential powers, and electoral rules) and the electoral context in which the presidential elections take place (effective number of presidential candidates).

scholarly journals Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republican Era

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
District Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
National Population ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Republican Era

We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most important one being the population aged 15 over; the turnout decreases with increasing population. The impairment of voter participation, based on the proportion of the total votes cast attributed to spoiled ballots, was linked to the literacy rate with the spoiled ballots proportion declining with increasing literacy rate. The share of the total valid votes cast, obtained by the victorious party in a district, was influenced to a large degree by the proportion of the total number of citizens in a district belonging to the two biggest social/ethnic groups in Ghana, Asantes and Ewes, who predominantly voted in a countervailing manner for the parties that their political class elites dominate, the New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress, respectively.

scholarly journals Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
Seidu Mahama Alidu ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unique Approach ◽  
Election Results

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

scholarly journals The Factors Determining Voter Turnouts in Presidential Elections in Nigeria: Multivariate Correlation Analysis of the 2019 Presidential Election

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-33
Author(s):  
Olalekan Waheed Adigun
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Multivariate Correlation ◽  
Electoral Studies ◽  
Electoral Democracy ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Multivariate Correlation Analysis

AbstractPeople’s active participation in elections is one of the key measures of electoral democracy. The people’s lack of interests or apathy in elections tends to undervalue the democratic process, engender mistrust in political institutions, and enthrone unaccountable leadership. This is why voter turnout is a crucial aspect of electoral studies. Even though Nigeria has successfully undergone two decades of uninterrupted democracy, she may not be too fast in imbibing the tenets of electoral democracy which presupposes active people’s participation in the electoral process. This is because there has been a conspicuous decline in voter turnouts in presidential elections since 2003. There are several factors responsible for this decline. This paper analysed three key variables – violence, socioeconomic factors, and candidate’s popularity - with the use of Multivariate Correlation Analysis (a statistical procedure that calculates correlation coefficients of two or more variables to determine the strengths of their relationships). The study, therefore, finds that of the three variables, candidate’s popularity as indicated by voters’ preferences for candidate’s/running mate’s tribe, political party, and trust in candidate’s abilities provide stronger evidence of the declining turnouts in Nigerian presidential elections.

Presidential and Legislative Elections

2017 ◽  
pp. 282-302
Author(s):  
Mark P. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Politics And Government ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Presidential Democracies ◽  
Presidential Systems

Over a hundred countries have popularly elected presidents. Within a democratic context, presidential and legislative elections have a profound impact on politics and government in a country. Systems of government with democratically elected presidents fall into two broad regime-type categories: pure presidential and semipresidential. Presidential systems vary in terms of the length of the president’s term, the rules determining how the winner of the presidential contest is determined, and the ability of a president to seek re-election. Legislatures in presidential and semipresidential systems are elected using an electoral system from one of four broad families, with proportional representation being the most common. In pure presidential democracies, the presidential elections exercise a significant direct and indirect impact on the pattern of competition in the legislative elections, with both elections combining to influence the nature of democratic governance in a country.

Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1159-1176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Tate
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Context ◽  
Political Organizations ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Black Voter ◽  
Political Resources ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Alternative Community

Using data from a longitudinal telephone study of voting-eligible black Americans I explore the political context of black voter turnout in the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections and reexamine the attitudinal and demographic variables associated with black electoral participation. Jesse Jackson supporters were more likely to vote in the 1984 presidential election, while black opposition to Reagan was also linked to black voter turnout in 1984. Nonetheless, blacks who preferred Jackson to other primary contenders in the 1988 nominating contest were less likely to vote in the presidential election. Finally, while education, political interest, partisanship, and age were generally associated with black voter participation, race identification had a less consistent effect. Instead, church membership and involvement in black political organizations serve as alternative, community-based resources that promote black participation. This research underscores the importance of both political context and group-based political resources in stimulating the black vote.

Voter Turnout in Presidential Nominating Contests

The Forum ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. McDonald ◽  
Thessalia Merivaki
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
General Election ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Party ◽  
Political Environments ◽  
Primary Type ◽  
Two Stages

AbstractPresidential elections are conducted in two stages. The November general election is proceeded by a series of contests where delegates are selected to national party conventions, which is where the parties select their candidates for the fall election. These nominating contests’ political environments vary: the rules regarding who can participate; the levels of electoral competition, which are related to when they are held; and that other offices present on the ballot, if any. We explore the effects of these conditions on voter participation in recent presidential contests and generally find turnout highest in competitive and inclusive contests where other offices are on the ballot. Examining the 2008 American National Election Panel Study, we find primary voters are more ideologically extreme than general election voters, but there is little difference between voters in closed and open primary states. We suggest primary type has little effect on the ideological composition of the electorate because modern nomination contests are low turnout elections that draw only the most politically interested.

scholarly journals Simultaneous Elections and the Rise of Female Representation in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-72
Author(s):  
Luky Sandra Amalia ◽  
Aisah Putri Budiatri ◽  
Mouliza KD. Sweinstani ◽  
Atika Nur Kusumaningtyas ◽  
Esty Ekawati
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Institutional Innovation ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election

In the 2019 election, the proportion of women elected to Indonesia’s People’s Representative Assembly ( Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR) increased significantly to almost 21 per cent. In this article, we ask whether an institutional innovation – the introduction of simultaneous presidential and legislative elections – contributed to this change. We examine the election results, demonstrating that, overall, women candidates did particularly well in provinces where the presidential candidate nominated by their party won a majority of the vote. Having established quantitatively a connection between results of the presidential elections and outcomes for women legislative candidates, we turn to our qualitative findings to seek a mechanism explaining this outcome. We argue that the simultaneous elections helped women candidates by easing their access to voters who supported one of the presidential candidates, but who were undecided on the legislative election. Rather than imposing additional burdens on female candidates, simultaneous elections assisted them.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

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