scholarly journals IS THE REINHART-ROGOFF DEBT THRESHOLD APPLICABLE TO ITALY?

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing

This paper employs an extended production function to examine the relationship between central government debt and economic growth in Italy. The results show that the threshold of the central government debt ratio for Italy is estimated to be 105.00%, which is greater than the 90% debt threshold proposed by Reinhart and Rogoff. Besides, a higher growth rate of labor employment or investment/GDP ratio would raise the growth rate. Hence, the debt threshold proposed by Reinhart-Rogoff underestimates the debt threshold for Italy. The finding suggests that the debt ratio of 131.09% in 2019 is well above the debt threshold and is likely to be unsustainable.

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-31
Author(s):  
Palupi Lindiasari Samputra ◽  
Aji Wahyu Ramadhani

This study aims to analyze the relationship and influence of social assistance on the number of poor people in Indonesia. There is a control variable as a comparison, namely; the number of people who work alone and work as laborers, central government debt and economic growth. The research method uses a quantitative approach with non-parametric statistics with annual data (2007-2017) and elasticity is used to measure the amount of change in the number of poor people due to additional social assistance. Pearson Moment Product and Rank Spearman correlation test to examine the relationship of each variable (number of people who work alone and work as laborers, central government debt and economic growth) to the number of poverty in Indonesia. The results of non-parametric statistics show that there is a very strong relationship between social assistance (National Health Insurance-Benefit Beneficiary Recipients (JKN-PBI) and Prosperous Rice (Rastra), and strong (Family Hope Program (PKH)) for the number of poor people. negative indicates that social assistance can significantly reduce the amount of poverty, with the strongest impact being the PBI program.There is a strong relationship between debt and working as a laborer on the number of poor people. The slowdown in economic growth is proven to be unrelated to the number of poor people. the biggest decrease in the number of poor people is the JKN-PBI program (-0.16), Rastra (-0.15) and PKH (-0.06). The additional employment as laborers has the highest effectiveness level of -0, 34. Government debt is needed to reduce the number of poor people by -0.16, which means that in the middle of declining oak On the other hand, the amount of poverty in Indonesia can be reduced through social assistance programs, the creation of jobs as laborers and government debt allocated to productive activities and economic activities that directly affect the poor and vulnerable to poverty. Keywords: Social assistance programs, Economics growth, Debt, Poverty, Laborers, Effectiveness Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan dan pengaruh bantuan sosial terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin di Indonesia.  Terdapat variabel kontrol sebagai pembanding yaitu; jumlah orang yang bekerja sendiri dan bekerja sebagai buruh, utang pemerintah pusat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan statistik non-parametrik, data tahunan (2007-2017) dan elastisitas digunakan untuk mengukur besaran perubahan jumlah penduduk miskin akibat tambahan bantuan sosial. Uji korelasi Pearson Moment Product dan Rank Spearman untuk menguji hubungan masing-masing variabel (jumlah orang yang bekerja sendiri dan bekerja sebagai buruh, utang pemerintah pusat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi) terhadap jumlah kemiskinan di Indonesia.  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat hubungan yang sangat kuat antara bantuan sosial (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional-Penerima Bantuan Iuran (JKN-PBI) dan Beras Sejahtera (Rastra), dan Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin. Tanda negatif menunjukkan bantuan sosial dapat menurunkan jumlah kemiskinan secara signifikan, dengan dampak terkuat adalah program PBI.  Terdapat hubungan kuat antara hutang dan bekerja sebagai buruh terhadap jumlah penduduk miskin. Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi terbukti tidak  berhubungan dengan jumlah penduduk miskin. Hasil perhitungan elastisitas menunjukkan efektifitas bantuan sosial terhadap penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin paling besar adalah program JKN-PBI  (-0,16), Rastra (-0,15) dan PKH (-0,06).  Tambahan lapangan kerja sebagai buruh memiliki tingkat efektifitas yang paling tinggi sebesar -0,34.  Hutang pemerintah dibutuhkan untuk menekan jumlah penduduk miskin sebesar -0,16. Artinya, di tengah perlambatan ekonomi, jumlah kemiskinan di Indonesia dapat ditekan melalui program bantuan sosial, penciptaan lapangan kerja sebagai buruh dan hutang pemerintah dialokasikan untuk kegiatan produktif dan kegiatan ekonomi yang berdampak langsung kepada penduduk miskin dan rentan miskin.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-103
Author(s):  
Julia Julia ◽  
Khairiyansyah

This study aims to analyze the relationship and influence of social assistance on the number of poor people in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands. There are control variables as comparison, namely; unemployment, central government debt, economic growth and poverty. The research method uses a quantitative approach with non-parametric statistics, annual data (2015-2020) and elasticity are used to measure the magnitude of change in the number of poor people due to additional social assistance. Spearman Rank test to examine the relationship of each variable (the number of unemployed, central government debt and economic growth) to the amount of poverty in Indonesia. The results of the study show that there is a very strong relationship between social assistance for Contribution Assistance Recipients and the Family Hope Program on the number of poor people. A negative sign indicates that social assistance can significantly reduce poverty, with the strongest impact being the  program. There is a strong relationship between debt and the number of poor people. The slowdown in economic growth has been proven to be unrelated to the number of poor people. This means that, in the midst of an economic slowdown, the number of poverty in Indonesia can be reduced through social assistance programs, job creation as laborers and government debt is allocated for productive activities and economic activities that have a direct impact on the poor and the poor. vulnerable to poverty.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-111
Author(s):  
Darman Saputra ◽  
Julia Julia

This study aims to analyze the relationship and influence of social assistance on the number of poor people in Indonesia. There are control variables as a comparison, namely; unemployment, central government debt and economic growth. The research method used a quantitative approach with non-parametric statistics, annual data (2013-2020) and elasticity were used to measure the magnitude of changes in the number of poor people due to additional social assistance. Rank Spearman test to test the relationship of each variable (total unemployment, central government debt and economic growth) to the amount of poverty in Indonesia. The results showed that there was a very strong relationship between social assistance for Contribution Assistance Recipients (PBI) and the Family Hope Program (PKH) on the number of poor people. The negative sign indicates that social assistance can reduce poverty significantly, with the strongest impact being the PBI program. There is a strong relationship between debt and the number of poor people. The slowdown in economic growth is proven to be unrelated to the number of poor people, meaning that in the midst of an economic slowdown, the amount of poverty in Indonesia can be suppressed through social assistance programs, job creation as laborers and government debt is allocated for productive activities and economic activities that have a direct impact on the poor and vulnerable to poverty. Poverty alleviation efforts can be carried out by the government by synergizing social assistance programs and creating job opportunities according to the ability of the poor on average.


2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 40-50
Author(s):  
Mạnh Phạm Hồng ◽  
Ngọc Nguyễn Văn ◽  
DAO HẠ THỊ THIỀU

The paper examines the relationship between employment and economic growth during the period 1991–2012 in Vietnam and obtains forecasts for employment from 2013 to 2020, using theories of production function for establishment of econometric models. The results show that the employment elasticities of economic growth are -0.49; 0.55 and 0.66 for agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors respectively and 1.71 for Vietnamese economy as a whole in the period. The results also indicate that an annual growth rate of 6% - 7% can help create from 55.322 to 56.243 million jobs by 2015 and from 61.739 – 64.519 million ones by 2020. Additionally, the research offers several important policy recommendations to promote economic growth and job creation in Vietnam in the next period.


2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model with capital and skill heterogeneity to analyze the relationship among inflation, growth, and income inequality. In the model inflation, growth, and inequality are jointly determined. We show that an increase in the long-run money growth rate raises inflation and reduces growth, but its effect on income inequality depends on the relative importance of the two types of heterogeneity. Inequality shrinks with the rise of inflation when capital heterogeneity dominates and enlarges when skill heterogeneity dominates. Therefore, our model supports a negative (positive) inflation–inequality relationship and a positive (negative) growth–inequality relationship when capital (skill) heterogeneity dominates. In any event, inflation and growth are negatively related.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-58
Author(s):  
Bin Pan ◽  
Shih-Yung Wei ◽  
Xuanhua Xu ◽  
Wei-Chiang Hong

By considering the demand and supply effects of defense investment and the uncertainty of the stochastic process of the production and defense investment, this study proposes a stochastic endogenous growth model to explore the impact of defense investment on economic growth. The results suggest that the relationship between defense investment and economic growth rate is nonlinear and obtains the optimal percentage of defense investment to maximize economic growth. Moreover, the impact of defense investment volatility on economic growth rate is subject to production and defense investment interference term's covariance and representative private investment risk preference. Finally, the empirical data are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. p207
Author(s):  
Josephat Lotto ◽  
Catherine T. Mmari

The main objective of this paper was to examine the impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1990 to 2015 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to estimate the effects. The study finds that there is an inverse but insignificant relationship between domestic debt and the economic growth of Tanzania as measured by GDP annual growth. The inverse relationship between domestic debt and GDP may be caused by different factors such as; increased trend in domestic borrowing, government lenders’ profile dominated by commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions which promotes the “crowding out” effect; the nature of the instruments used by the government ; the improper use of the domestic borrowed funds which may include funding budgetary deficits, paying up principal and matured obligations on debt, developing financial markets as well as fund other government operations. Other control variables relate with the GDP as predicted. For example, Inflation (INF) has a negative effect on the GDP growth rate, but the relationship is not statistically significant, while gross capital formation (GCF) has a positive statistically significant effect on GDP growth rate. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a positive effect on the GDP growth rate and export (X) has a positive effect on GDP growth rate, and the relationship is statistically significant explaining that if a country applied an export-led growth economic strategy it enjoys the gains of participating in the world market. This means that an increase in export stimulates demand for goods which leads to increase in output, and as a country’s output increases, the economic performance also takes a similar trend. Finally, government expenditure (GE) had a negative effect on the GDP growth rate which may be explained by the increased government expenditures which are funded by either tax or borrowing. Therefore, what is required for countries like Tanzania is to have better debt management strategies as well as prudential financial management while maintaining to remain within the internationally acceptable debt level of 45% of GDP and maintain a GDP growth rate of not less than 5%. It is important for the country to realize from where to borrow from, the tenure, the risks involved and limitations to borrowing and thus set the right balance of combination of both kinds of debt. Another requirement is to properly utilize the borrowed funds. The central government’s objective should be to use the funds in more development-oriented projects that bring positive returns to the economic development.  The government should not only create a right environment and policies for investment to attract investment from domestic and foreign sources but also be cautious about the kind of investments that the foreign investors make.


2021 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Jelena Bjelić

An investment is a factor of the economic growth and a mandatory constituent in the majority of development models. This study analyzes the impact of the gross investment on the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2005-2017, and provides the assessment of the interdependence of investment and a newly added value in industry. The relationship between the foreign investment and the economic growth is also included. The dependent variables are the GDP growth rate and the added value in industry (as % of GDP). The independent variables are the total investment rate (as % of GDP) and the foreign investment rate (as % of GDP). The hypothesis is that the gross investment and the foreign investment are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. The investments contribute to a higher newly added value in industry. The results show that the gross investment is a significant factor of the economic growth because there is a high significance and positive correlation between the observed variables (the total investment and the GDP growth). This shows that the investment growth stimulates the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the dynamic analysis as an investment-GDP ratio shows oscillations. The impact of investments on the share of the newly added value in industry is insignificant and negative. The results of the dynamic analysis are similar. The relationship between the variables of the foreign investment rates and the GDP growth is significant and positive. Although the foreign investments are not sufficient, they still contribute, to a certain extent, to the economic growth of BiH.


2020 ◽  
Vol 185 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 48-60
Author(s):  
Evgenia Prokopjeva ◽  
◽  
Natalia Kuznetsova ◽  
Svetlana Kalayda ◽  
◽  
...  

The relevance of the paper is predetermined by the fact that insurance acts as an institute of financial and social protection, and insurance companies (especially for long-term life insurance) are the most important and socially responsible investors, which account for about 8-12% of total investments in developed countries in the economy, which, in turn, serves as a significant factor in economic growth. The purpose of our paper is to prove the relationship between the level of development and dynamics of insurance markets on the one hand, and the level and dynamics of economic growth rates in a number of countries, on the other. To achieve the goal, we set and solved the research objectives: 1) to determine the degree of elaboration of the problem of the relationship between economic growth and the development of the insurance market in a number of countries and regions of the world economy; 2) to construct a comprehensive classification of similar and different characteristics in certain countries of the worlds’ economy (European, Asian, extended countries with a federal structure, post-socialist countries); 3) to highlight some indicators of the level of economic development and growth of classified countries (central bank interest rate, economic growth rate, investment growth rate, etc.) associated with some parameters of insurance market development, primarily with the volume and growth rate of insurance premiums, including the growth rate of life insurance premiums; 4) to classify the insurance regulation models of the grouped countries based on the analysis of the relationship between the selected economic and insurance indicators; 5) to assess the degree of relationship between the development of a relatively young and unbalanced insurance market and indicators of economic growth in Russia. The latter occupies a special place in the classification of the countries under consideration by characteristics of insurance development, by spatial, geopolitical parameters, by indicators of economic development and economic dynamics. The research results and conclusion are the following: 1) there is a direct relationship between the indicators of economic growth and indicators of the development of the insurance market in national economies and regional integration complexes; 2) different types of grouped countries have a different degree of dependence between indicators of economic growth and the insurance market indicators’ development, which is determined, not least of all, by historical, economic, spatial, geographical and geopolitical characteristics; 3) the close relationship between the indicators of economic development and growth of countries under consideration and their insurance markets is ambiguous, due to the fact that the active growth of insurance is noted in countries with a high density and a significant proportion of the young population; 4) the reasons for similarities and differences in the relationship under study are diverse and determined by differences in functioning of socio-economic systems (geographical, legislative, political, social, etc.), as well as by the adopted model of insurance regulation; 5) the growth of the insurance market corresponds to the general economic growth, subject to the intensification of investment activity; 6) life insurance shows a closer relationship with macroeconomic indicators compared to other segments of the insurance market; 7) the importance of studying the proposed problem for Russia in the future is due to its important integrating function for the national insurance markets of European as well as Asian countries.


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