Development and Terrorism in Nigeria: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Emmanuel O. Okon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Adf Test

This paper is a cointegration and causality analysis of macroeconomic factors and terrorism in Nigeria using time series data spanning between 1970 and 2016. The stochastic characteristics of each time series was examined using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The result reveals that LOG(GOVX), LOG(INTR), POLX, DLOG(GDPC) and DLOG(OPEN) were in line with the apriori expectation. With this development, some recommendations were made amongst which are that trade openness rate should be all time kept at peak benchmark by adopting tight trade openness while strategic macroeconomic policies should be instituted in order to encourage domestic private investment to enhance the growth of the economy. Nigerian political system has to be stabilized and the government should step up its intelligence gathering capacity as well as training security agents to forcefully combat terrorist group.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE PERIOD OF 1976 – 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-65
Author(s):  
Majid Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
Adf Test

The paper aims to examine empirically the nexus between foreign direct investment, domestic investments and economic growth in Pakistan by using time series data. An OLS technique is used to analyze the relationship between FDI, Public & Private investment, Personal remittances with gross domestic products panning from 1976-2016. For a data to be stationary, ADF test has been used and validated that all variables are stationary at level. Results of the study shows that both public and private sector investment are positively related with GDP but Public sector investment have an insignificant effect on GDP, while FDI found inversely and insignificantly correlated with GDP. Personal remittances (PR) relate negatively and have a significant impact on GD. Private investment are found to be the most significant variable which can effect GDP, showing that private investment can fueled economic growth of Pakistan. Hence, the Government of Pakistan needs to formulate such a policy frame work, which focuses on private sector investment in order to enhance economic growth.

scholarly journals Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nianyong Wang ◽  
Muhammad Haroon Shah ◽  
Kishwar Ali ◽  
Shah Abbas ◽  
Sami Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Time ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the financial structure and misery index on economic growth in Pakistan. We adopted Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) for a co-integration approach to the data analysis and used time series data from 1989 to 2017. We used GDP as the dependent variable; the Financial Development index (FDI) and misery index as the explanatory variables; and remittances, real interest, and trade openness as the control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the included variables in the model and the FD index, misery index, interest rate, trade openness, and remittances as the main affecting variables of GDP in the long run. The government needs appropriate reform in the financial sector and external sector in order to achieve a desirable level of economic growth in Pakistan. The misery index is constructed based on unemployment and inflation, which has a negative implication on the economic growth, and the government needs policies to reduce unemployment and inflation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Infrastructure on Tourism: The Case of Sri Lanka

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. M. Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This study examines the impact of infrastructure on tourism development in Sri Lanka with greater emphasis on road network. The time period used in this study are ranging from year 2005 to year 2017. The annual time series data are analyzed by using statistical package, E-Views 10 after the preliminary calculations by using Microsoft Excel. The unit root of the variables is tested by ADF test to test the stationarity of the time series data used in the model of this study. Co-integration is tested with the use of Engle–Granger. The relationship of causality between the variables is found by test of Granger Causality. The results show that infrastructure has significant short run as well long run positive impact on tourism. Two-way causal relationship is found between tourism sector and infrastructure. Further, this study recommends that the government should play its role in improving the infrastructure facilities to increase tourist’s arrival in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals Relationship between Volatility of Economics Variables and Economics Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. p375
Author(s):  
Rubina Shaukat ◽  
Irfan Hussain Khan ◽  
Hasan Raza Jafri ◽  
Nighat Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
The Government ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Economic growth of an economy is defined as the steady state path through which the productivity of an economy is improved and increases the levels of national output and income. The government consumption expenditures and investment play a key role in the process of investigating the macroeconomic performance of an economy and determinants of economic growth. The countries which grow quickly, invest a substantial fraction of their GDP for consumption expenditures as well for the sources which encourage private investment. The objective of this study to calculate the volatility in economics growth in Pakistan. The annual time series data are used from 1975 to 2014 from WDI, Economics survey of Pakistan and Hand Book of Statistics. GARCH model has been used to measure volatility of all variables. The empirical results of the study confirmed that the volatility of the different variables (volatility of inflation, volatility of interest rate, volatility of political instability, volatility of GDP, and volatility of foreign direct investment) significant affect the government consumption expenditures and private investment in the economy of Pakistan. The study analyzed data by using the autoregressive distributive lag model which is mainly used in time series data Econometrics to estimate the non-stationary models with mix order of integration. The estimated results of the study evaluated that volatility of the inflation lead to uncertainty which is also suggested by the Able (1980) and negatively affect the economy consumption expenditures as well as private investment in the economy of Pakistan. Because uncertainty directly affects the cost of capital as well as reduce private investor confidence.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals The Effect of IJ-EPA to Indonesia Export: Interupted Time Series (ITS) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Yuafanda Kholfi Hartono ◽  
Sumarto Eka Putra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) is a bilateral free-trade agreement between Indonesia and Japan that has been started from July 1st, 2008. After more than a decade of its implementation, there is a question that we need to be addressed: Does liberalization of IJ-EPA make Indonesia’s export to Japan increase? This question is important since the government gives a trade-off by giving lower tariff for certain commodities agreed in agreement to increase export. Using Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis based on time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this article found that the impact of IJ-EPA decreased for Indonesia export to Japan. Furthermore, this paper proposed some potential commodities that can increase the effectiveness of this FTA. The importance of this topic is that Indonesia will maximize the benefit in implementing of agreement that they made from the third biggest destination export of their total export value, so it will be in line with the government's goal to expand export market to solve current account deficit. In addition, the method that used in this paper can be implemented to other countries so that they can maximize the effect of Free Trade Agreement, especially for their export.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yandiles Weya ◽  
Vecky A.J. Masinambow ◽  
Rosalina A.M. Koleangan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
North Sulawesi ◽  
The City

ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG Yandiles Weya, Vecky A.J. Masinambow, Rosalina A.M. Koleangan. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Magister Ilmu EkonomiUniversitas Sam Ratulangi, Manado ABSTRAKPada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan negatif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami penurunan. Kota Bitung periode tahun 2004-2014 mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang fluktuasi. Adanya fluktuasi ini dapat dipengaruhi oleh investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tolok ukur keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi di suatu daerah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mencerminkan kegiatan ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat bernilai positif dan dapat pula bernilai negatif. Jika pada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan positif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami peningkatan. Sedangkan jikaTahun 2004-2014 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sulut dan Kota Bitung. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model ekonometrik regresi berganda double-log (log-log) dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung. Data yang dipakai menggunakan data time series periodeHasil regresi model pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan persamaan regresinya yaitu  LPDRB  =  - 4,445    +  0.036 LINV  +  0.049 LBL  +  2,229 LPOP.  Dari hasil tersebutmenunjukkan perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung dan penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung.Kata Kunci :pertumbuhan ekonomi, belanja langsung, penduduk, regresi bergandaABSTRACT    The economy experienced a period of negative growth means economic activity in this period has decreased. Bitung-year period 2004-2014 economic growth fluctuations. These fluctuations can be influenced by private investment, direct spending, and population Economic growth is one measure of the success of economic development in an area. Economic growth reflects economic activity. Economic growth can be positive and can also be negative. If the economy experienced a period of positive growth means economic activity during the period has increased. Whereas if  years 2004-2014 are sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sulawesi Province and Bitung. The analytical method used is an econometric model double-log regression (log-log) with Ordinary Least Square (OLS). This study aims to determine whether the development of private investment, direct spending, and population affect the economic growth of the city of Bitung. The data used using time series data period.    The results of the regression model of economic growth with the regression equation is LPDRB = - LINV 4.445 + 0.036 + 0.049 + 2.229 LPOP LBL. From these results show the development of private investment, direct expenditure and population positive and significant impact on economic growth of Bitung.Keywords: Economic growth, direct spending, population, regression.

Examining the Long Run Effects of Export, Import and FDI Inflows on the FDI Outflows from India: A Causality Analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Nandita Dasgupta
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis ◽  
Trade And Investment

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of international trade and investment related macro economic variables, namely, exports, imports and FDI inflows on the outflows of FDI from India over 1970 through 2005. Using time series data analysis, the empirical part of the paper finds unidirectional Granger Causality from export and import to FDI outflows but no such causality exists from FDI inflows to the corresponding outflows from India. Results confirm the assumption that lagged imports and exports are a driving force of ing front.

Human Capital Impact on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Chuwuemeka Ogugua AGBO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tertiary Institutions ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth in Nigeria. Despite all effort to improve education condition in Nigeria, there hasn’t been much encouraging improvement. This has caused a large number of the population to move abroad for studies. Most conducive tertiary institutions are owned by private individuals, the government owned universities have been overlooked and recklessly abandoned. In this study OLS multiple regression was adopted to analyze the time series data for the period of 1985-2018 to test if Average Year of Schooling (AVYS), Private Investment in Telecommunication (PIT), Capital Expenditure on Education (CEE), and Recurrent Expenditure on Education (REE) have an impact on growth in Nigeria or not. The data was derived from CBN statistical Bulletin (2018). Result showed that all the four explanatory variables have significant impact on Economic growth. However, it is therefore important for government to increase education budget annually.

HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS HARGA JUAL DAN HARGA SEWA APARTEMEN DI JABODETABEK

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-105
Author(s):  
Zainal Zawir Simon ◽  
Effendy Zain ◽  
Zulihar Zulihar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Granger Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Relationship

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara harga jual apartemen dan harga sewa apartemen di wilayah Jabodetabek. Data yang dipergunakan adalah data  time series dalam bentuk kuartalan untuk periode 2007:1-2018:3 dan alat analisis yang dipergunakan adalah analisa kausalitas Granger. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara harga jual apartemen dan harga sewa apartemen di wilayah Jabodetabek. Dengan kata lain perubahan harga jual  tidak mempengaruhi harga sewa. Sebaliknya harga sewa juga tidak mempengaruhi harga jual apartemen. Dengan demikian Investor diharapkan dalam melakukan analisis investasinya memasukkan faktor-faktor lain yang dapat mempengaruhi harga jual dan harga sewa untuk apartemen, agar terlepas dari pandangan bahwa harga jual mempengaruhi harga sewa dan sebaliknya.Kata Kunci : Harga Jual apartemen, Harga Sewa Apartemen, Data Runtut Waktu, Analisa Kausalitas GrangerABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the causality relationship between the selling price of apartments and apartment rental prices in the Greater Jakarta area. The data used are time series data in quarterly form for the period 2007: 1-2018: 3 and the analysis tool used is the Granger causality analysis. The results showed that there was no causality relationship between apartment selling prices and apartment rental prices in the Greater Jakarta area. In other words, changes in selling prices do not affect rental prices. Conversely the rental price also does not affect the selling price of the apartment. Thus Investors are expected to carry out investment analysis to include other factors that can affect the selling price and rental price for an apartment, so that regardless of the view that the selling price affects the rental price and vice versa.Keywords : Selling Price of apartments, rental prices apartments, time series data, Granger Causality Analysis

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