scholarly journals Determinants of Productivity in Brazil: an empyrical analysis of the period 1996-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 30-40
Author(s):  
Hugo Ferreira Braga Tadeu ◽  
Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Investment Rates

Empirical studies regarding the determinants of productivity in developing countries, including Brazil, have demonstrated the negative impact of high inflation rates on the industrial capacity. However, the recent Brazilian experience clearly shows that stabilization since 1996, in and of itself, is not capable of recovering the investment rates. With this in mind, this study's goal is to answer, with the help of econometric simulation models, the questions: (i) what are the key-drivers to assess the Brazilian economy since 1996?; and (ii) what are the key-factors to be considered when investments are made, particulary in productivity? To answer the questions we evaluated the impacts of macro-economic variables on private investments, using a strategic bias and a long term vision plan. The estimates demonstrate empirical crowding-in evidence of public investments in infrastructure over private investments as a real impact to productivity. As for public invetsments (noninfrastructural) we suggest that the crowding-in impact dislocates private investments. All these indicators were obtained as presented in the therory, with the exception of the real interest rates variable (r), in which we observed that the coefficient is positive and insignificant in the estimated equation.

scholarly journals Daya Tahan Sektor Rumah Tangga Dalam Rangka Menjaga Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Ita Rakhmawati ◽  
Suhadi Suhadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Stability

The crisis in 1997 is the image of the high rise in inflation in Indonesia. The phenomenon of inflation when it reached 82.40% (Anas, 2006). The early mid-1998 also experienced a weakening of the rupiah against the dollar. Condition stable economy is the desire of each country in comparison with the state of the economy has always fluctuated. Economic stability will create an atmosphere conducive economy. stable climatic conditions in the expected level of welfare is the purpose in each country. One of the efforts to maintain economic stability is through monetary policy. For example, with economic growth, maintain price stability (inflation), the achievement of the balance of payments and the reduction of unemployment (Natsir, 2008). The stability of the financial system of a country of which reflected their price stability, in the sense that there are a great price that can be harmful to society, both consumers and manufacturers that will damage the joints of the economy. However, the implementation of the policy, Bank Indonesia as the monetary authority uses monetary variables such as interest rates and the money supply to cope with economic shocks such as inflation. Besides the need for the government’s role in maintaining the rupiah to avoid turmoil in the economy. The importance of inflation control based on the consideration that the high inflation and unstable negative impact on socio-economic conditions of society. Among the high inflation will cause a decline in the real income of the community so that the standard of living of the people down and eventually make everyone, especially the poor get poorer. From one of the effects of inflation are so wide will impact people’s demands to meet the needs of more and more difficult. Their continuousprice increases being offset by rising income of the communities, it can make sure the Indonesian state would worsen. As a result many people’s needs can not be met, so many things that must be met by way of credit. The number of community needs that must be met will cause world of opportunities for banks to offer credit readily available to meet the needs. The third object of research above (inflation, poverty, and credit) does affect the stability of the financial system? In this study using secondary data from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI) with time series data from the years 2007-2015. The process of data analysis was performed using OLS regression with Eviews 8.0. Based on research, if only partial test of the poverty variable significantly affect the stability of the financial system amounted to 2,023 with α = 10%. Meanwhile, two other variables (inflation and poverty) is not significant to the stability of the financial systemMeanwhile, two other variables (inflation and poverty) is not significant to the stability of the financial system. While the value of R-Square (0.629900), indicating that the three independent variables / free consisting of inflation, poverty and credit simultaneously have the effect that make the stabilization of the financial system increases or decreases. That is jointly independent variables (inflation, poverty and loans) contributed / effect of 62.9% against the stability of the financial system. The rest is the influence of other factors beyond the three independent variables studied.

Liquidity, solvency and cash flow simulation models in non‐life insurance companies: the Italian experience

2004 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 76-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiano Colombini ◽  
Simone Ceccarelli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Loss Reserve ◽  
Italian Experience ◽  
Inflation Rates

This paper discusses dynamic financial approaches to solvency analysis in non‐life insurance companies by explaining cash flow simulation models which are based on the planning of their typical cash inflows and outflows. Posits that these models take into account patterns of loss reserve run‐offs and asset cash flows by implementing several hypotheses that also include expectations about external economic conditions such as inflation rates and interest rates. Acknowledges the cash inflows and outflows have been planned over a period of time to evaluate how positive net cash flow (liquidity) leads to the increase in assets over liabilities (solvency).

scholarly journals THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE MARKET CAPITALISATION OF LISTED COMPANIES IN KENYA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Mark Mjomba
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Market Capitalisation

Purpose: This study aims to find out the effects of macroeconomic variables on market capitalization in Kenya.Methodology:The study adopted a descriptive research design. The target population was all the employees of Nairobi Securities Exchange. The study used a purposive sampling method to access data from the population of study. A random sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 96 respondents. Secondary data on these variables ranging from 1980 to 2014 was analysed using inferential statistics. Time series analysis and regression model were employed in the analysis.Results:The findings of study indicated that exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on market capitalisation of listed companies, the findings also shows that exchange rates had a fluctuating pattern during the period of study. Further the findings showed that interest rates and public debt had a negative significant effect on market capitalisation. An increase in domestic interest rates had corresponding negative impact on capital market. Further the findings showed that inflation rates had a negative effect on market capitalisation but the effect was less significant compared to interest rates, exchange rates and public debt. These findings do not primarily conclude that inflation rates, interest rates, exchange rates and public debt are the chief determinants of market capitalisation since market capitalisation is also affected by other variables not included in this study.Policy recommendation: The study therefore recommends that the Securities and Exchange Commission of Kenya should consider the trends in the variables under the study in policy formulation to ensure the development of a modern and efficient capital market sector based on sound policies that provide momentum for high and steady capital market.

Strategi Pengelolaan Risiko dan Peningkatan Kualitas Pengelolaan Kas Negara

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Agung Mulyono
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Foreign Loan ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Loan Interest Rates

Cash management is  one of treasury’s main functions in which has a potential financial risk. A potential financial risk emerges when State Treasurer manages cash surplus and or/ shortages in order to maintain optimum liquidity. By applying Vector Autoregression (VAR) system on empirical data provided by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, we found that currency value  flunctuation is a significant factor for repayment value of foreign loan. Interest rates and amount of government’s bond held by foreign investors are also variables impacted on government’s bond price movement in secondary market. Currency value  flunctuation and price of government’s bond in secondary market are the key factors that have to be considered by State Treasurer (BUN) in managing state’s money. Hedging strategy by using derivatif product is possible to be utilized by State Treasurer (BUN) due to it’s flexibility for short-term operation.   Abstrak Pengelolaan kas negara merupakan salah satu fungsi pokok perbendaharaan yang dalam proses pelaksanaannya menyimpan potensi berbagai risiko keuangan. Risiko keuangan, khususnya dalam investasi berpotensi muncul ketika Bendahara Umum Negara (BUN) melakukan kegiatan pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas dalam rangka menjamin ketersediaan dan optimalisasi kas. Dengan menggunakan analisis Vector Autoregression (VAR) atas data empiris yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia, penulis menemukan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang merupakan faktor yang signifikan terhadap besaran pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Tingkat suku bunga acuan dan pergerakan besaran kepemilikan SUN oleh investor asing juga merupakan variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder. Fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang dan pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder menjadi faktor penting dalam pelaksanaan investasi yang dilakukan BUN dalam rangka pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, strategi pengelolaan risiko atau hedging dengan menggunakan produk-produk derivatif dalam pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas jangka pendek – menengah sangat dimungkinkan karena sifat instrumen derivatif yang fleksibel.

Program-Target Budgeting as a Tool for Investment Stimulation of Business

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Masterov
Keyword(s):  
Current Practice ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Program Budgeting ◽  
Large Investment ◽  
Stimulation Of

The paper discusses the use of the program-targeted budgeting methodology in the investment stimulation of business in the most problem sectors of the economy. The subject of the study is the dynamics of business activity in key economic sectors adversely affected by factors of the economic and geopolitical nature. The purposes of the study were to identify the key factors that have a negative impact on economic growth and seek options for investment stimulation of business activities in the most problem sectors of the economy using state budget funds. It is concluded that the current practice of budget investment is associated with significant risks and poor justification of investment decisions. Therefore, the American practice of the program budgeting in the implementation of large investment infrastructure projects using budget funds seems to be advantageous. Based on the research findings, methods for increasing the effectiveness of program-target budgeting tools under the Russian conditions are proposed.

SOCIAL ASPECTS OF NATIONAL SAFETY OF THE STATE

2018 ◽  
pp. 7-12
Author(s):  
O. B. Berezovska-Chmil
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Social Security ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
The State ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Level Of Economic Development

  In this article theoretical and еmpirical analysis of social security are conducted. Ways of the optimization social security are argumented. The author notes that significant transformation processes are taking place in the country. They affect the state of security. It is noted that with the development of scientific and technological progress the number of threats and dangers does not decrease. At the same time, the essence of the phenomenon of "danger" is revealed. Empirical studies have been carried out on the basis of an analysis of problems related to ensuring the necessary safety of people. It is established that in recent times organized crime, including cybercrime, has spread widely in Ukraine. It has a negative impact on ensuring national security and sustainable development. A number of factors have been singled out. They are a potential threat to national security. Groups of possible dangers are determined. Summarizing the opinions of scientists, the essence of the concept of "social security" is characterized. It is emphasized that its state is influenced by the level of economic development, the effectiveness of social policy of the state and state regulation of social development. The authors have grounded the formation of national and social security, have proved that sustainable development is connected with the observance of social standards; have considered the development and implementation of a balanced social and environmental and economic policy. This policy would involve active use of the latest production technologies, minimizing the amount of harmful emissions to the environment, strengthening the role of the state in solving social and economic problems and sustainable development.

EVALUATION OF FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA

2020 ◽  
pp. 56-67
Author(s):  
Elena Evgenevna Mashyanova ◽  
Elena Aleksandrovna Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gradual Increase ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
External Threats ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Global Financial System

In modern conditions of development, financial security is an integral part of the overall security of the region and is formed on the basis of the functioning of the financial system. The complication of relationships between key segments of international financial markets, as well as the limited ability to accurately predict future trends in the development of the global financial system, lead to a gradual increase in the risks that accompany the activities of economic entities, and an increase in the number and scale of internal and external threats that have a negative impact on the financial security of the state. This formulation of the issue requires generalization of approaches to determining the financial security of the region in order to further formalize this issue and determine the key factors affecting it. The article considers the types of financial security, as well as certain areas of ensuring the financial security of the region and their priority. In work the assessment of the level of socio-economic development of the region with a view to ensuring financial security on the basis of which offers the main activities and priority areas of implementation of the investment policy that will ensure financial security of the Republic of Crimea.

scholarly journals Liquidity Synchronization, Its Determinants and Outcomes under Economic Growth Volatility: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Syeda Hina Zaidi ◽  
Ramona Rupeika-Apoga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Market Index ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Growth Volatility

This study investigates the country-level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market-wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerging market index: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines for analysis from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings show high levels of liquidity synchronicity in weaker economic and financial environments with low GDP growth, high inflation and interest rates and underdeveloped financial systems taking the form of low levels of private credit. Liquidity synchronicity is also affected by poor investor protection, political instability, weak rule of law and government ineffectiveness. Moreover, levels of liquidity synchronicity are higher in a period of economic growth volatility.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

scholarly journals A State-of-the-Art Review on Empirical Data Collection for External Governed Pedestrians Complex Movement

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Shi ◽  
Zhirui Ye ◽  
Nirajan Shiwakoti ◽  
Offer Grembek
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Movement Patterns ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Pedestrian Traffic ◽  
Random Flows ◽  
Complex Movement

Complex movement patterns of pedestrian traffic, ranging from unidirectional to multidirectional flows, are frequently observed in major public infrastructure such as transport hubs. These multidirectional movements can result in increased number of conflicts, thereby influencing the mobility and safety of pedestrian facilities. Therefore, empirical data collection on pedestrians’ complex movement has been on the rise in the past two decades. Although there are several reviews of mathematical simulation models for pedestrian traffic in the existing literature, a detailed review examining the challenges and opportunities on empirical studies on the pedestrians complex movements is limited in the literature. The overall aim of this study is to present a systematic review on the empirical data collection for uni- and multidirectional crowd complex movements. We first categorized the complex movements of pedestrian crowd into two general categories, namely, external governed movements and internal driven movements based on the interactions with the infrastructure and among pedestrians, respectively. Further, considering the hierarchy of movement complexity, we decomposed the externally governed movements of pedestrian traffic into several unique movement patterns including straight line, turning, egress and ingress, opposing, weaving, merging, diverging, and random flows. Analysis of the literature showed that empirical data were highly rich in straight line and egress flow while medium rich in turning, merging, weaving, and opposing flows, but poor in ingress, diverging, and random flows. We put emphasis on the need for the future global collaborative efforts on data sharing for the complex crowd movements.

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