Climate Change and Hazards Risk Management, Community Capability, Resilience and Vulnerability in Swat, Shangla, and Kohistan District, Northwest Pakistan

The study area comprises of humid and undifferentiated highland climates having total precipitation of52inches (1320mm) and fluctuation of -5.3inches or -134millimeters (1961-2014). The study area was a highly humidclimate in 1961, while recently it seems on the porch of sub-humid ambiance. The annual trends show depletion in theprecipitation concentration since 1980. Based on temperature, there are three types of temperature zones that are cool,cold and highlands. The maximum temperature recorded in June as well as July and reversed in January. The averagetemperature indicates a rise of 0.20C, which is higher during winters and converse in summers. The swell in the degreeof hotness enhanced the water anxiety as well as the recoil of glaciers and increased the rate of natural hazards. Thehydrology of the area is highly susceptible to the alteration in weather conditions in terms of glaciers retreat; fall inriver flow, sub-surface water, natural disasters, desiccation of ponds and water springs. The yearly runoff of the Swatriver reveals a decrease of -0.03 m3/Sec, while it is 12.4 m3/Sec in the Ghurband river (Shangla). It is concluded, thatthe yearly inclination of water runoff is contrary to mean temperature and directly proportional to precipitation. Themost frequent natural disasters of the study area comprise of earthquakes, floods, landslides, snow avalanches, forestfires and epidemics (hepatitis, stomachache, and cholera). These hazards can be minimized using well planning (top tobottom) for risk management, preparedness, vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies at the community level in the area.

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Innovative Techniques in the Context of Actions for Flood Risk Management: A Review

Eng ◽

10.3390/eng2010001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Maria Martinez ◽

Ramez Bakheet ◽

Shatirah Akib

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

General Purpose ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Storm Water ◽

Water Runoff ◽

Storm Events ◽

Storm Water Runoff ◽

Protection Strategies ◽

The Impact

The general purpose of this review paper is to provide an overview of various flood protection strategies because flooding is becoming more frequent and is affecting more areas, displacing people, and increasing fatalities around the world. The concern surrounding climate change resulting in sea level rise, increasingly frequent storm events, and the need for adaptive actions to better control urban storm water runoff motivates the completion of this paper. Understanding the impact of climate change aside from dangerous weather conditions essential for designing effective mitigation strategies, but first, there needs to be a clear and strong understanding of the effects of extreme events. This review represents engineered storm water practices that are adaptive, in combination with the non-structural measures such as urban planning, will help reduce flood impact.

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Collaborative Mitigation Strategies And Supply Chain Risk Management: Information Processing Theory Perspective

10.15405/epsbs.2019.10.02.2 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Yesim Can Saglam

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Supply Chain ◽

Information Processing ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Supply Chain Risk Management ◽

Information Processing Theory ◽

Management Information ◽

Supply Chain Risk ◽

Processing Theory

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AnANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11114757 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 4757

Author(s):

Aleksandra Bączkiewicz ◽

Jarosław Wątróbski ◽

Wojciech Sałabun ◽

Joanna Kołodziejczyk

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Pressure ◽

Real Life ◽

Real Data ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Air Masses ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Life Problems ◽

The World ◽

The City

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have proven to be a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of real-life problems. The possibility of using them for forecasting phenomena occurring in nature, especially weather indicators, has been widely discussed. However, the various areas of the world differ in terms of their difficulty and ability in preparing accurate weather forecasts. Poland lies in a zone with a moderate transition climate, which is characterized by seasonality and the inflow of many types of air masses from different directions, which, combined with the compound terrain, causes climate variability and makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather. For this reason, it is necessary to adapt the model to the prediction of weather conditions and verify its effectiveness on real data. The principal aim of this study is to present the use of a regressive model based on a unidirectional multilayer neural network, also called a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict selected weather indicators for the city of Szczecin in Poland. The forecast of the model we implemented was effective in determining the daily parameters at 96% compliance with the actual measurements for the prediction of the minimum and maximum temperature for the next day and 83.27% for the prediction of atmospheric pressure.

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Potential Impacts of Extreme Heat and Bushfires on Dementia

Journal of Alzheimer s Disease ◽

10.3233/jad-201388 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 79 (3) ◽

pp. 969-978

Author(s):

Taya L. Farugia ◽

Carla Cuni-Lopez ◽

Anthony R. White

Keyword(s):

Rural Communities ◽

Natural Disasters ◽

Low Socioeconomic Status ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Heat ◽

Indigenous Populations ◽

Future Research ◽

Diagnosis Of Dementia

Australia often experiences natural disasters and extreme weather conditions such as: flooding, sandstorms, heatwaves, and bushfires (also known as wildfires or forest fires). The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 years and over is increasing, alongside the severity and frequency of extreme weather conditions and natural disasters. Extreme heat can affect the entire population but particularly at the extremes of life, and patients with morbidities. Frequently identified as a vulnerable demographic in natural disasters, there is limited research on older adults and their capacity to deal with extreme heat and bushfires. There is a considerable amount of literature that suggests a significant association between mental disorders such as dementia, and increased vulnerability to extreme heat. The prevalence rate for dementia is estimated at 30%by age 85 years, but there has been limited research on the effects extreme heat and bushfires have on individuals living with dementia. This review explores the differential diagnosis of dementia, the Australian climate, and the potential impact Australia’s extreme heat and bushfires have on individuals from vulnerable communities including low socioeconomic status Indigenous and Non-Indigenous populations living with dementia, in both metropolitan and rural communities. Furthermore, we investigate possible prevention strategies and provide suggestions for future research on the topic of Australian bushfires and heatwaves and their impact on people living with dementia. This paper includes recommendations to ensure rural communities have access to appropriate support services, medical treatment, awareness, and information surrounding dementia.

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Risk Management in Seaports: A Community Analysis at the Port of Hamburg

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13148035 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 8035

Author(s):

Ayman Nagi ◽

Meike Schroeder ◽

Wolfgang Kersten

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Natural Disasters ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Community Analysis ◽

Detection Algorithm ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Emergency Plans ◽

Plausibility Check ◽

Safety Risks ◽

Community Detection Algorithm

The aim of this work is to detect communities of stakeholders at the port of Hamburg regarding their communication intensity in activities related to risk management. An exploratory mixed-method design is chosen as a methodology based on a compact survey and semi-structured interviews, as well as secondary data. A compact survey at the port of Hamburg is utilized to address the communication intensity values among stakeholders. Based on 28 full responses, the data is extracted, cleansed, and prepared for the network analysis using the software “Gephi”. Thereafter, the Louvain community detection algorithm is used to extract the communities from the network. A plausibility check is carried out using 15 semi-structured interviews and secondary data to verify and refine the results of the community analysis. The results have revealed different communities for the following risk categories: (a) natural disasters and (b) operational and safety risks. The focus of cooperation is on the reactive process and emergency plans. For instance, emergency plans play an important role in the handling of natural disasters such as floods or extreme winds.

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The Point Bonitation Method and Its Adaptation in Risk Studies: A Case Study in Sri Lanka’s Cities in the Coastal Zone

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18042060 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 2060

Author(s):

Dorota Rucińska ◽

Martyna Zagrzejewska

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

High Risk ◽

Sri Lanka ◽

Natural Disasters ◽

Economic Geography ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Specific Result ◽

Weighting Method ◽

Tsunami Risk

Article proposes using weighting method named the Point Bonitation Method, a popular interdisciplinary method, especially in the tourism and socio-economic geography, for giving optional direction to further researching tsunami risk. This method qualifies and quantifies those factors that lead to natural disasters so that it is possible to make comparisons with their roles in disaster areas. This case study in Sri Lanka shows a specific result that is quantification of vulnerability by regions and can be used and developed locally for disaster risk management and reduction. This paper presents discussion about other possible reasons of high risk in regions.

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Thawing Permafrost in Arctic Coastal Communities: A Framework for Studying Risks from Climate Change

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13052651 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 2651

Author(s):

Joan Nymand Larsen ◽

Peter Schweitzer ◽

Khaled Abass ◽

Natalia Doloisio ◽

Susanna Gartler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Risk Perception ◽

Stakeholder Involvement ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Socially Constructed ◽

Local Stakeholders ◽

Risk Framework ◽

Relevant Stakeholder ◽

Thawing Permafrost

Thawing permafrost creates risks to the environment, economy and culture in Arctic coastal communities. Identification of these risks and the inclusion of the societal context and the relevant stakeholder involvement is crucial in risk management and for future sustainability, yet the dual dimensions of risk and risk perception is often ignored in conceptual risk frameworks. In this paper we present a risk framework for Arctic coastal communities. Our framework builds on the notion of the dual dimensions of risk, as both physically and socially constructed, and it places risk perception and the coproduction of risk management with local stakeholders as central components into the model. Central to our framework is the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. A conceptual model and processual framework with a description of successive steps is developed to facilitate the identification of risks of thawing permafrost in a collaboration between local communities and scientists. Our conceptual framework motivates coproduction of risk management with locals in the identification of these risks from permafrost thaw and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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