scholarly journals AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY, COMMODITY PRICES AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1980-2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-31
Author(s):  
Ephraim Ugwu ◽  
Emma-Ebere Obiajulu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Test Result

This study evaluates the interaction between monetary policy, commodity prices and inflation in Nigeria using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and Cointegration test approaches from1980 to 2015. The study utilizes data on monetary policy rate (MPR), commodity product export (CPE), rate of inflation (INF), industrial production (INDP) and oil price (OILP) for analysis. The descriptive statistics result for the variables under consideration indicates that all the variables have positive mean values with 36 observations. The Unit root test result indicates that all the variables are stationary and are integrated of order one at 5% level of significance. The cointegration test result indicates at most two cointegrating equations. The impulse response function results indicates that the response of the INF to one standard innovation is positive to its own shock in the short run, it fluctuates and became stable with positive trend along the horizon in the long run. The response of the INF to one standard innovation in the CPE indicates a lower response of negative shock in the initial period with fluctuation, then stabilizes in the long run. The response of the INF to one standard innovation in MPR shows a fluctuation in the short run, but steadily continues its positive trend along the horizon in the long run period. The response of INF to one standard innovation in OILP indicates a negative response in both short and long periods. The variance decomposition result shows that the shock of the INF to itself indicates that it accounts for the most of the variability over all periods, it ranges from 92% in the short run to 55% in the long run. The shock of INF to CPE shows a decreasing pattern from the first quarter, ranging from 0.1 % in the short run to 6.5 % in the tenth period. The shock of the INF to MPR indicates a decreasing pattern in the short run from 2.4%, it increases to 24.35% in the medium run and continues increasing to 32% in the long run. The study therefore recommends that the Federal Government’s attention should be focused on non-oil agricultural commodities for future and stable economic growth in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The Effect of US Monetary Policy Normalization Toward The Financing Growth of Indonesian Islamic Banking Industry: Short-Term and Long-Term Approaches

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (01) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Ahmad Mikail ◽  
Kenny Devita Indraswari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fund Rate

<p>The study identifies the effect of The Fed Fund Rate (FFR) normalization toward the financing growth of Islamic banks as well as toward the industrial credit growth in Indonesia. To acquire better understanding about the effect of the increasing FFR, Vector Error Correction Model is being utilized in order to identify short run and long run effects. The data employed are the quarterly data of total credit in banking industry, total financing in Islamic banking industry, FFR, real GDP growth, real interest rate, exchange rate and Indonesian composite index from 2003 - 2015. To forecast the dynamic effect of the rising FFR towards financing growth in the Islamic banks, Impulse Response Function is being applied. The result from the long run estimation suggests that the Fed’s monetary policy has negative effect toward the Indonesian banking credit growth as well as the Islamic financing growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficient shows that the effect is quite low in the long run for the conventional bank and relatively high for the Islamic banks. From the short run dynamic analysis, the study reveals that the Islamic banks financing growth is mostly determined by FFR where Islamic financing growth affects Indonesian composite index and real interest rate. However, the Impulse Response Function result exhibits that the Fed’s monetary policy normalization will not affect Islamic banks financing in Indonesia.</p><p><br />Keywords: Fed Fund Rate, Financing Growth, Islamic Banking, Indonesia, Monetary Policy</p>

scholarly journals The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 676
Author(s):  
Ramiz ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Zain ul Abidin ◽  
Rizwan Ali ◽  
Safwan Mohd Nor ◽  
Muhammad Akram Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Indices

This study investigates the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity indices with conventional indices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) individually and across all BRICS countries to better understand regional economic cooperation. Accordingly, we look at daily returns from 13 July 2013 to 28 February 2018 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG indices and MSCI composite indices of the respective countries. To analyze the integration between the ESG equity indices of the sampled countries with their regional and across regional conventional counterparts, the Johansen Co-integration test is employed in this study. Further, the vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to test the causality between the sampled time-series. The impulse response function analysis further explains the impulse responses of each country’s MSCI ESG returns to one standard deviation of innovations to MSCI composite returns of the same country and across countries. Finally, the extent of the MSCI composite returns’ impact on the MSCI ESG returns in the same country indices, and cross-regional indices is examined with variance decomposition analysis. The results suggest that all ESG equity indices are integrated with conventional indices in all BRICS countries. Furthermore, there is a short-or long-run causality between MSCI ESG and MSCI composite equity indices of China and South Africa. Moreover, the study finds only short-run causality between conventional and non-conventional equity indices of Brazil and Russia, whereas we find only long-run causality between India’s non-conventional and conventional equity indices. Finally, the study finds that the all-individual country MSCI ESG equity indices shows a long-run causality with MSCI composite equity indices of all other BRICS countries. The findings also confirm the economic and financial cooperation between the BRICS countries.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND TELECOMMUNICATION OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 62-73
Author(s):  
John Abiodun Akinde ◽  
Elijah Oludayo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Different policies impact on the growth of the telecommunication sector in Nigeria. One of these policies which influence the expansion or contraction of the telecommunication output is monetary policy. To this end, this research examined the effect of monetary policy on telecommunication output in Nigeria. For the purpose of analysis, time series secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin covering the periods1986 to 2018. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed after examining the stationarity of the data series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique. The bound co-integration test revealed that there is long run equilibrium between the monetary policy variables employed and telecommunication output. The ARDL result revealed that money supply had significant and positive effect on telecommunication output in the short and long run; liquidity ratio produced an insignificant and negative relationship with telecommunication output in the short run and insignificant positive effect in the long run; exchange rate had insignificant negative effect in the short run and a significant positive effect on telecommunication output in the long run; consumer price index had significant negative influence on telecommunication outputboth in the short run and long run. The study concluded that monetary policy stimulates telecommunication output in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the monetary authority should pursue an expansionary monetary policy to sustain the positive influence of money supply on telecommunication output in Nigeria while rolling out policy to reduce the liquidity ratio of banks in the short run but increase it in the long run so that the long term favourable effect of liquidity ratio can be felt on telecommunication output.  

scholarly journals Profitability Variables and Bank Size Effects on Corporate Zakat: Evidence from Indonesian Islamic Banks

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
Muhammad Anif Afandi
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Operational Activities ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Research Period

Islamic banks carry out their operational activities based on Islamic principles. Thus, they are not only required to pay taxes but also zakat of 2.5 percent with several conditions. Theoretically, zakat has an impact on Islamic banks larger expenditures compared to conventional banks which are not obliged to. This research examines and analyzes the extent to which profitability variables which are ROA, ROE, and BOPO, and bank size which is represented by total assets, can affect corporate zakat expenditure by Islamic Commercial Banks (BUS) in Indonesia. To do so, the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) is used to analyze the subject matters which the period covers from 2012 to 2017. This work finds that in the short-run, all the independent variables were insignificant. However, in the long-run only ROE and BOPO which were significant. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis showed that the dependent variable responds to the shock of its independent variables with fluctuating and even negative trend. In addition, the results of Variance Decomposition (VDC) analysis showed that the contribution of profitability variables and bank size tended to decrease toward the formation of corporate zakat expenditure by BUS until the end of the research period. Keywords: Corporate Zakat Expenditure, Islamic Banks, Profitability, Bank Size, PVECM

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Have an Influence on the Performance of Stock Market: Further Empirical Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Opoku Adabor ◽  
Emmanuel Buabeng
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Monetary policy, foreign direct investment, and the stock market continue to dominate in discussions in developing countries. However, the linkage between the three variables in empirical literature remains unclear. This study aims to test two separate hypotheses: Firstly, the study examines the effects of monetary policy on stock market performance in Ghana. Secondly, the study also empirically investigates the effect of foreign direct investment on stock market performance in Ghana. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed as an estimation strategy to examine the short and long-run effects using annual time series data from 1990 to 2019. The study revealed that monetary policy rate and money supply exerts a statistically significant negative and a positive effect on stock market performance in both the long and short-run in Ghana, respectively. It was also found that foreign direct investment has significant and a positive effect on stock market performance in Ghana in both the long and short run. Total capital stock and volume traded were also found to exert significant positive and negative impacts on stock market performance both in the short and long run respectively. Based on our findings, we recommend that expansionary monetary policy will be a better option to be carried out to improve the stock market performance in Ghana. Furthermore, government and private partnership may ensure the effective management of the macroeconomic variables to attract foreign direct investment into Ghana to boost stock market performance.

scholarly journals Determinants of Islamic Rural Bank Financing in Indonesia

JEJAK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-288
Author(s):  
Arif Widodo ◽  
Istianah Asas
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research is designed to empirically investigate the determinants of Islamic rural banking financing in Indonesia after 2008 global financial crisis covering period 2009.1-2014.12. The methods applied in this research are Error Correction Model (ECM) and VAR/VECM. The results of ECM model demonstrate that the variable third party funds (DPK) and non-performing financing can significantly affect Islamic rural banking financing both in the short run and long run, while Return on Asset (ROA) and Profit-and-loss sharing does not have a significant influence. Islamic rural bank financing, however, was influenced by inflation and exchange rate as the proxy of macroeconomic variables in the short and long run. Furthermore, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and variance decomposition results show that Profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) has the largest positive impact to financing (39.08%), followed by third party fund (19.6%) and inflation (8.9%). While, the variables that contribute to reduce financing are non-performing financing (9.02%), followed by ROA (7.76%) and exchange rate (2.48%).

scholarly journals An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Nadar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigatesthe effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in India. We collected thetime series data for India ranging from 1960 to 2019 from World Development Indicator (WDI). Weapplied the bound test co-integration approach to check the long-run relationship between fiscalpolicy, monetary policy, and economic growth in the context of Indian economy. The short-run andlong-run effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy have been estimated using ARDL models. Theresults showed that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal and monetary policies witheconomic growth. The estimated short-run coefficients indicated that a few immediate short runimpacts of fiscal and monetary policies are insignificant. However, the short-run impacts becomesignificant as time passes. The long-run results suggested that the long-run impact of both fiscal andmonetary policies on economic growth are positive and significant. More specifically, the GDP levelincreases if the money supply and government expenditure increase (Expansionary fiscal andmonetary policies). On the other hand, the GDP level decreasesif the money supply and governmentexpenditure decrease (contractionary fiscal and monetary policies). Therefore, this studyrecommends to use expansionary policies to spur the Indian economy.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Channels and Industrial Production in Pakistan: Evidences based on ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 713-721
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq Mahmood ◽  
Sadaf Shahab ◽  
Saad Ali Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Monetary policy is a significant component of economic management, with which we can control higher inflation, boost the economic growth and stabilize the other macroeconomic activities. This study investigates the channels of monetary policy affecting the industrial production using monthly data of Pakistan. In this regard, we have applied Bound test for co-integration to investigate the dynamic behaviour of the variables. Our results indicate that the consumer prices, money supply and money market rates are negatively effective for industrial production in the short-run. On the other hand, exchange rate has positive effect in short-run. The results also indicate that there is statistically significant and positive relationship between industrial output and money supply in the long-run, too. The adjustment mechanism suggests stability in the system and is statistically significant. Our results imply that the authorities should use expansionary monetary stance through money supply channel to boost the industrial sector.

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

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