scholarly journals New approach to risk assessment of certain agricultural products

2021 ◽  
pp. 44-57
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Oliynyk ◽  
Olena Skoromna ◽  
Oleksandr Gorokh ◽  
Vitaliya Mishchenko ◽  
Maryna Yevdokimova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Net Income ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Break Even Point

Purpose. The main purpose of the research is to substantiate a new approach to assessing the risk of production and sales of certain types of the agricultural products. Methodology / approach. The abstract-and-logical method (systematization of publications on risk assessment of the risk level); the economic and statistical one (determination of root-mean-square deviation (δ), the coefficient of variation (v), and the coefficient of residual variation); the marginal analysis (determination of the break-even level of production of certain types of the products) have been used. Results. The methodological approach that allows determining the risk level of certain types of the products has been developed and it has been proposed to determine not only with the help of the break-even point, but also to supplement the following indicators – determining the reserve of safety and the reserve of financial strength. It is proved that similar obtained assessments of the certain product type production risk level using the analysis of variation indices can be reached by examining the break-even point indices, financial safety margin and the margin of safety. Research results show that unlike variation indices, the break-even point index, the financial safety margin index and the margin of safety index show the maximum amount of possible net income reduction. Originality / scientific novelty. The methodical approach to the assessment of the risk level of agricultural production at the given level of profitability, which is based on the comparison of the levels of production intensity of certain types of the products, that ensures their break-even point, has been substantiated. Practical value. The application of the proposed methodological approach allows the managers to determine how much to reduce the amount of the net income or the level of production intensity, but not to fall into the zone of loss.

A New Fine-Kinney Method Based on Clustering Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (03) ◽  
pp. 497-512
Author(s):  
Cansu Dagsuyu ◽  
Murat Oturakci ◽  
Esra Sarac Essiz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Conventional Method ◽  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Distance Functions ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Clustering Techniques ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Clustering Approach

In this study, a new approach to Fine-Kinney risk assessment method is developed in order to overcome the limitations of the conventional method with clustering algorithms. New risk level of classes are attempted to determine with K-Means and Hierarchical clustering algorithms with using two different distance functions which are Euclidean and Manhattan distances. According to the results, K-Means algorithms have provided accurate and sensitive cluster of classes. Classes from conventional and K-Means algorithms are applied and compared to the identified risks of a workshop of a medium sized textile company. Results of the study indicate that clustering techniques are new, original and applicable way to define new classes in order to prioritize risks by overcoming the drawbacks of conventional Fine-Kinney method.

scholarly journals Visualization and diagnostics of reliability of the object with changing the functioning conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Evgeny Gvozdev
Keyword(s):  
Technological Process ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Base Materials ◽  
Reliability Indicator ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Fire And Explosion

The object of the scientific research is buildings (structures), which requiring the determination of a reliability indicator for their further operation in new operating conditions, the determination of additional loads in the form of (explosions, fires, vibration processes). The solution to such problems is relevant for buildings (structures), which are acquired (leased) by the owner, for their further operation in the new conditions of the technological process associated with the handling, storage, processing and production of fire and explosion hazardous substances (materials). It is important to determine the readiness of buildings (structures) for operation in the new conditions of functioning of the technological process of production, it is proposed to use deterministic, statistical and probabilistic approaches. It is proposed to use a simplified assessment of the safety margin of a building (structure) by yield strengths (for steel elements) and strength (for base materials, load-bearing walls, partitions and ceilings) corresponding to the maximum allowable values for their destruction. The innovative approach is described that allows us to solve the problems of assessing the strength reliability of structural elements of buildings (structures) to obtain guaranteed characteristics of a given margin of safety, its resistance to possible realized effects (explosions, fires, vibration processes)

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Civil Aircraft during Operation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longbiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
Aircraft System

In this chapter, the risk assessment methods for aircraft system, structure, and aeroengine are investigated. For the aircraft system risk assessment, the probability level is divided into probable, improbable, and extremely improbable, and the hazard level of the failure condition is divided into minor, major, and catastrophic. Using Weibull analysis and Bayesian method to analyze the aircraft operation data, the risk level of aircraft system can be determined by combing methods provided in AC 25.1309-1A. For the aircraft structure risk assessment, the probability fracture mechanics approach can be used to determine the structure failure risk based on the data of material properties, environment, inspection, and so on. For the aeroengine risk assessment, the methods for classification of failure risk level, determination of hazard ratio, and calculation of the risk factor and risk per flight are given. The risk assessment process for aeroengine multi-failure modes based on the Monte Carlo simulation is presented to predict the occurrence of the failure and assess the failure risk.

PROBABILISTIC DETERMINATION OF TECHNOSPHERE OBJECT RELIABILITY UNDER HAZARDOUS INFLUENCES

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 809-818
Author(s):  
E.V. Gvozdev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Safety Margin ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Building Structure ◽  
Reliability Indicators ◽  
Base Materials ◽  
Margin Of Safety

The subject of research is the process associated with determining the reliability parameter of buildings (structures) for their further operation in the technological process, causing effects in the form of additional loads (explosions, fires, vibration processes). The solution of such problems is relevant for the buildings (structures) acquired (rented) by the owner for further operation in the production process, in the technology of which fire and explosion hazardous substances (materials) are handled, stored or processed. The purpose of the study is to develop an approach that allows one to determine the parameter of the reliability of a building (structure) for operation under additional loads. To determine the indicators of safe permissible states of buildings (structures), the use of various criterion characteristics included in the content of deterministic, statistical and probabilistic approaches is given. A feature of assessing the reliability of buildings (structures) for their operation under additional loads (explosions, fires, vibration processes) is to determine the indicator of a given margin of safety and its stability under possible realized impacts. To solve the problem, it is proposed to use a simplified assessment of the safety margin of a building (structure) in terms of yield strength (for steel elements) and strength (for base materials, load-bearing walls, partitions and ceilings) corresponding to the maximum permissible values for their destruction. A consistent theoretical description of the formulas is presented, which makes it possible to establish a relationship between the safety margin of a building (structure) and the probability of its destruction under the implemented influences. An innovative approach is described that allows solving problems of assessing the strength reliability of structural elements of buildings (structures), when it is important to obtain guaranteed characteristics of an indicator of a given safety margin, its resistance to possible realized influences (explosions, fires, vibration processes). The use of the material in order to determine the reliability indicators based on risks allows us to consider the calculated values of the safety margin of a building (structure), which meets the established requirements for assessing efficiency from the point of view of the theory and practice of operations research.

scholarly journals MARGIN OF SAFETY OF HIRING DECISION OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY SERVICES BY RICE FARMERS IN ALNAJAF AL-ASHRAF PROVINCE

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 756-762
Author(s):  
Z. R. Kadhim
Keyword(s):  
Safety Margin ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Agricultural Machinery ◽  
Hiring Decision ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Combine Harvester ◽  
Small Scale Farmers ◽  
Break Even Point

The main objective of this study is to compute margin of safety of hiring decision of agricultural machinery services in Iraq. A cost-volume-profit analysis by using breakeven point technique has been followed to find out the margin of safety by using cross- section data in rice production farms in Alnajaf province. Results showed that the break-even point for different types of original agricultural field machinery were 427, 6.5, and 221 hours for tractor and machinery of soil preparation, farm sprayer, and combine harvester, respectively, while the values of break-even point for different types of used agricultural field machinery were 309, 10, and 319 hours for tractor, farm sprayer, and combine harvester, in that order. Results also pointed out that the negative sign of safety margin of areas of all machineries indicated that there are losses faced by small scale farmers in case of ownership these machineries, and the minimum lose amounted about $ 316116 for original tractor, $ 52611 for used tractor, $ 220.5 for original farm sprayer, $ 88 for used farm sprayer, $ 664664 for original combine harvester and $ 584650 for used combine harvester. The study recommended that it is useful for small scale farmers in Alnajaf province to continue hiring various agricultural machinery services rather than purchase them due to the absence of safety margin of holding areas. Therefore machine stations of agricultural machineries services maybe developed by Iraqi government in the study region to provide these services to the farmers with supported prices.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MARGIN OF SAFETY USAHA PETERNAKAN PUYUH “MERRYLAND” DI DESA KALI KECAMATAN PINELENG KABUPATN MINAHASA

ZOOTEC ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Lisa Wangefela ◽  
N M Santa ◽  
A H.S Salendu ◽  
L S Kalangi
Keyword(s):  
Safety Margin ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Poultry Farm ◽  
District Office ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Break Even Point

ABSTRACT ANALYSIS OF SAFETY  MARGIN ON “MERRYLAND” QUAIL POULTRY FARM AT KALI VILLAGE PINELENG DISTRICT OF MINAHASA REGENCY. The purpose of this study was to determine the break-even point of "Merryland" quail poultry farm and to determine the margin of safety of this farm. The research location was at the "Merryland" quail poultry farm on Kali village Pineleng district of Minahasa regency, with the consideration that the venture is a private farm enterprise. This farm enterprise had been operated more than 3 years. The number of birds held were 5000 chicken quail. This study was conducted during one month from December 10, 2016 to January 10, 2017. The method was applied using the case study method, in the form of primary data and secondary data. Primary data were using data obtained from interviews with the respondents through a list of questions that had been provided. Secondary data were obtained using variables at the office related to research data, including the Village Office, District Office, and Office of the Department of Agriculture / Animal Husbandry. Based on the survey, results indicated that quail poultry farm of "Merryland" had reached breakeven sales of 690,732 quail eggs or on sale of IDR259,589,665. If the breeder declined in egg sales, the number of eggs tolerated of farmers not sufferin economic losses were 58.8% of the total sales. Keywords : Quail, Margin Of Safety 

scholarly journals Break Even Analysis of Poultry Egg Production in Rural Area in Southeast Sulawesi

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eryanti Niu ◽  
Haji Saediman ◽  
Surni Surni
Keyword(s):  
Rural Area ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Assistance Program ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Break Even Point

This research aimed to analyze break-even point and margin of safety of poultry egg production in the rural area in Southeast Sulawesi. The research used a case study approach by using questionnaire1, in-depth interviews, and observation to collect data and information from a small-scale poultry egg producing enterprise which was selected purposively with the consideration that the farm is located in rural area and had less than 1.000 laying hens. Data were analyzed using costs and returns, break-even point, and margin of safety ratio. Research results show that the enterprise record net income of Rp9.232.165,00. R/C ratio of 1,32 means that the enterprise would earn a revenue of Rp1,32 for every one rupiah it invested. Break even sales are Rp3.374.474,00 and break even volume was 140,60 kg. The egg production is far above both the break-even sales and units, meaning that the enterprise earns a profit from egg production. The margin of safety is Rp34.750.526,00 or 91,15%, indicating a high level of safety in the enterprise. In view of its profitability and the importance of poultry egg production in the generation of employment and fulfillment of protein needs of the population, local government and other stakeholders are suggested to take measures to promote poultry egg production in rural areas by providing technical assistance program for small-scale poultry farmers at the community level and improving managerial skills in the poultryegg production.

scholarly journals Computational method for risk assessment of regional socio-economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 10001
Author(s):  
Oleg Pursky ◽  
Tatiana Dubovyk ◽  
Iryna Buchatska ◽  
Iryna Lutsenko ◽  
Hanna Danylchuk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Expert Evaluation ◽  
Socio Economic Development

In this study, we present the computational method for risk assessment of the socio-economic development of regions. An attempt has been made to develop a method for the determination of integral risk indicators of socio-economic development based on the joint use of the methods of factor analysis and expert evaluation. This approach has increased the reliability of the calculations and made it possible to analyze the influence of socio-economic indicators on the risk level of socio-economic development. The integral risk indicator shows the effect of the inconsistency in the level of factor provision on the socio-economic development of the j-th region (district) in comparison with the general situation in the country (regions). The closer the value of integral risk indicator is to 1, the higher the level of risk in this region. Using Kyiv region districts as an example, the process of risk assessment for regional socio-economic development has been considered. The results obtained in this investigation demonstrate that the presented computational method solves the problem of formalization of risk assessment for the socio-economic development of regions.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERHITUNGAN BEP (BREAK EVEN POINT) DAN MARGIN OF SAFETY DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA JUAL PADA USAHA KECIL MENENGAH

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-130
Author(s):  
Astrin Kusumawardani ◽  
Muhammad Iqbal Alamsyah
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Break Even Point ◽  
A Company

Determination of Selling Price is very important for entrepreneurs to be able to obtain the profit they want by using the Break-Even Point (BEP) analysis so that it can be seen the principal return point where the point illustrates how a company is in a state of non-profit and no loss. The research method used is a qualitative method with a case study approach. The study was conducted using Break-Even Point (BEP) analysis and Margin of Safety (MOS) determination of the selling price to get the profit expected by the SMEs. While the data used are primary data through observation and interviews, and secondary data in the form of financial statements of Boeds Cofee. As well as calculating and responding to the appropriateness of the selling price that will be carried out by the MSME. Based on the results of calculations through the BEP and MOS methods, the determination of the selling price is feasible to use. With MOS of 46%. Keywords: SMEs, Break-Even Point (BEP), Margin of Safety (MOS), Decision on Selling Price   ABSTRAK Penentuan Harga Jual sangatlah penting bagi pengusaha agar dapat memperoleh laba yang diinginkannya dengan menggunakan analisis Break Even Point (BEP) maka akan dapat dilihat titik pulang pokok dimana titik tersebut menggambarkan bagaimana suatu perusahaan dalam keadaan tidak memperoleh laba dan tidak mengalami kerugian. Metode penelitian yang digunakan ialah metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis Break Even Point (BEP) dan Margin Of Savety (MOS) penentuan harga jual untuk mendapatkan laba yang diharapkan oleh UKM tersebut. Sedangkan data yang digunakan ialah data primer melalui observasi dan wawancara, dan data sekunder yang berupa laporan keuangan Boeds Cofee. Serta menghitung dan memberi tanggapan tentang kelayakan harga jual yangakan dilakukan oleh UMKM tersebut. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan melalui metode BEP dan MOS maka penetuan harga jual layak untuk digunakan. Dengan MOS sebesar 46%. Kata Kunci : UKM, Break Even Point (BEP), Margin Of Savety (MOS), Pengambilan Keputusan Harga Jual

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