scholarly journals Trend and variability in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere over 2.5 solar cycles observed by SAGE II and OSIRIS

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 3479-3496 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Sioris ◽  
C. A. McLinden ◽  
V. E. Fioletov ◽  
C. Adams ◽  
J. M. Zawodny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Relative Standard Error ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Relative Standard

Abstract. We have extended the satellite-based ozone anomaly time series to the present (December 2012) by merging SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II) with OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System) and correcting for the small bias (~0.5%) between them, determined using their temporal overlap of 4 years. Analysis of the merged data set (1984–2012) shows a statistically significant negative trend at all altitudes in the 18–25 km range, including a trend of (−4.6 ± 2.6)% decade−1 at 19.5 km where the relative standard error is a minimum. We are also able to replicate previously reported decadal trends in the tropical lower-stratospheric ozone anomaly based on SAGE II observations. Uncertainties are smaller on the merged trend than the SAGE II trend at all altitudes. Underlying strong fluctuations in ozone anomaly due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the altitude-dependent quasi-biennial oscillation, and tropopause pressure need to be taken into account to reduce trend uncertainties and, in the case of ENSO, to accurately determine the linear trend just above the tropopause. We also compare the observed ozone trend with a calculated trend that uses information on tropical upwelling and its temporal trend from model simulations, tropopause pressure trend information derived from reanalysis data, and vertical profiles from SAGE II and OSIRIS to determine the vertical gradient of ozone and its trend. We show that the observed trend agrees with the calculated trend and that the magnitude of the calculated trend is dominated by increased tropical upwelling, with minor but increasing contribution from the vertical ozone gradient trend as the tropical tropopause is approached. Improvements are suggested for future regression modelling efforts which could reduce trend uncertainties and biases in trend magnitudes, thereby allowing accurate trend detection to extend below 18 km.

scholarly journals Trend and variability in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere over 2.5 solar cycles observed by SAGE II and OSIRIS

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 16661-16697 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Sioris ◽  
C. A. McLinden ◽  
V. E. Fioletov ◽  
C. Adams ◽  
J. M. Zawodny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Temporal Overlap

Abstract. We are able to replicate previously reported decadal trends in the tropical lower stratospheric ozone anomaly based on Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II observations. We have extended the satellite-based ozone anomaly time series to the present (December 2012) by merging SAGE II with OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System) and correcting for the small bias (~0.5%) between them, determined using their temporal overlap of 4 yr. Analysis of the merged dataset (1984–2012) shows a statistically significant negative trend at all altitudes in the 18–25 km range reaching (−6.5 ± 1.8)% decade−1 at 18.5 km, with underlying strong variations due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation, and tropopause height.

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Changes Derived from SABER Observations during 2002-2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
X. R. Zhao ◽  
Z. Sheng ◽  
H. Q. Shi ◽  
L. B. Weng ◽  
Y. He
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Atmosphere Temperature ◽  
Temperature Responses

AbstractUsing temperature data measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument from February 2002 to March 2020, the temperature linear trend and temperature responses to the solar cycle (SC), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated from 20 km to 110 km for the latitude range of 50°S-50°N. A four-component harmonic fit was used to remove the seasonal variation from the observed monthly temperature series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was applied to analyze the linear trend, SC, QBO, and ENSO terms. In this study, the near-global mean temperature shows consistent cooling trends throughout the entire middle atmosphere, ranging from -0.28 to -0.97 K/decade. Additionally, it shows positive responses to the solar cycle, varying from -0.05 to 4.53 K/100sfu. A solar temperature response boundary between 50°S and 50°N is given, above which the atmospheric temperature is strongly affected by solar activity. The boundary penetrates deep below the stratopause to ~ 42 km over the tropical region and rises to higher altitudes with latitude. Temperature responses to the QBO and ENSO can be observed up to the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the equatorial region, 40%-70% of the total variance is explained by QBO signals in the stratosphere and 30%-50% is explained by the solar signal in the upper middle atmosphere. Our results, obtained from 18-year SABER observations, are expected to be an updated reliable estimation of the middle atmosphere temperature variability for the stratospheric ozone recovery period.

scholarly journals Analysis of stratospheric NO2 trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 12357-12389
Author(s):  
F. Hendrick ◽  
E. Mahieu ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
K. F. Boersma ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Rule Out

Abstract. The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E) is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1%/decade and −3.6 ± 0.9%/decade are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1%/decade, −4.3 ± 1.4%/decade, and −3.6 ± 2.2%/decade, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5%/decade trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3 → NO3 + O2 reaction. Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility that a strengthening of the Dobson-Brewer circulation, which reduces the time available for N2O photolysis in the stratosphere, could also contribute to the observed decline in stratospheric NO2 above Jungfraujoch.

scholarly journals Analysis of stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 8851-8864 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hendrick ◽  
E. Mahieu ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
K. F. Boersma ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Rule Out

Abstract. The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E) is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1% decade−1 and −3.6 ± 0.9% decade−1 are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1% decade−1, −4.3 ± 1.4% decade−1, and −3.6 ± 2.2% decade−1, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5% decade−1 trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3 → NO3 + O2 reaction. Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility that a strengthening of the Dobson-Brewer circulation, which reduces the time available for N2O photolysis in the stratosphere, could also contribute to the observed decline in stratospheric NO2 above Jungfraujoch.

Latitudinal- and Height- Dependent Long-Term Climatology of Propagating Quasi-16-day in the Troposphere and Stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wentao Tang ◽  
Shao Dong ZHANG ◽  
Chun Ming HUANG ◽  
Kai Ming HUANG ◽  
Yun Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Local Instability ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Autumn And Winter

Abstract The global amplitude of the westward propagating quasi-16-day wave (16DW) with wavenumber 1 (Q16W1), the strongest component of 16DW, is derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis temperature data set from February 1979 to January 2018. The strong climatological mean amplitudes of the Q16W1 appear in winter in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes in both hemispheres, and the wave amplitude is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate responses of the Q16W1 amplitude to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation), ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), solar activity and the linear trend of the Q16W1 amplitude. The QBO signatures of the Q16W1 amplitude are mainly located in the stratosphere. In addition to the significant QBO response in the low latitude and low stratosphere, the largest QBO response occurs in the region with the strongest Q16W1 climatology amplitude. There no significant responses to ENSO and solar activity are observed. The linear trend of the monthly mean Q16W1 amplitude is generally positive, especially in the mid-high latitudes of the stratosphere. The trend is asymmetric about the equator and significantly stronger in the NH than in the SH. The trend shows obvious seasonal changes, that is, stronger in winter, weaker in spring and autumn. Further investigation suggests that the background and local instability trends contribute most of the increasing trend of the Q16W1 amplitude. In winter in both hemispheres, the weakening trend of eastward zonal wind provide more favourable background wind for Q16W1 upward propagation, in autumn and winter in the NH and in spring, autumn and winter in the SH, the increasing trend of local instability may enhance the wave excitation.

scholarly journals Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 7113-7140 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Bourassa ◽  
D. A. Degenstein ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
J. M. Zawodny ◽  
E. Kyrölä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Basis Functions ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Ozone Profile ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II satellite instrument (1984–2005) are combined with those from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) instrument on the Odin satellite (2001–Present) to quantify interannual variability and decadal trends in stratospheric ozone between 60° S and 60° N. These data are merged into a multi-instrument, long-term stratospheric ozone record (1984–present) by analyzing the measurements during the overlap period of 2002–2005 when both satellite instruments were operational. The variability in the deseasonalized time series is fit using multiple linear regression with predictor basis functions including the quasi-biennial oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, solar activity proxy, and the pressure at the tropical tropopause, in addition to two linear trends (one before and one after 1997), from which the decadal trends in ozone are derived. From 1984–1997, there are statistically significant negative trends of 5–10% per decade throughout the stratosphere between approximately 30–50 km. From 1997–present, a statistically significant recovery of 3–8% per decade has taken place throughout most of the stratosphere with the notable exception between 40° S–40° N below approximately 22 km where the negative trend continues. The recovery is not significant between 25–35 km altitude when accounting for a conservative estimate of instrument drift.

scholarly journals Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 6983-6994 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Bourassa ◽  
D. A. Degenstein ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
J. M. Zawodny ◽  
E. Kyrölä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Basis Functions ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Ozone Profile ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment~(SAGE) II satellite instrument (1984–2005) are combined with those from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) instrument on the Odin satellite (2001–Present) to quantify interannual variability and decadal trends in stratospheric ozone between 60° S and 60° N. These data are merged into a multi-instrument, long-term stratospheric ozone record (1984–present) by analyzing the measurements during the overlap period of 2002–2005 when both satellite instruments were operational. The variability in the deseasonalized time series is fit using multiple linear regression with predictor basis functions including the quasi-biennial oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation index, solar activity proxy, and the pressure at the tropical tropopause, in addition to two linear trends (one before and one after 1997), from which the decadal trends in ozone are derived. From 1984 to 1997, there are statistically significant negative trends of 5–10% per decade throughout the stratosphere between approximately 30 and 50 km. From 1997 to present, a statistically significant recovery of 3–8% per decade has taken place throughout most of the stratosphere with the notable exception between 40° S and 40° N below approximately 22 km where the negative trend continues. The recovery is not significant between 25 and 35 km altitudes when accounting for a conservative estimate of instrument drift.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone interannual variability (1995–2011) as observed by Lidar and Satellite at Mauna Loa Observatory, HI and Table Mountain Facility, CA

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 30825-30867
Author(s):  
G. Kirgis ◽  
T. Leblanc ◽  
I. S. McDermid ◽  
T. D. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Table Mountain ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidars, at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5° N, 155.6° W) and the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF, California, 34.5° N, 117.7° W), have been measuring vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone routinely since the early 1990's and late-1980s respectively. Interannual variability of ozone above these two sites was investigated using a multi-linear regression analysis on the deseasonalized monthly mean lidar and satellite time-series at 1 km intervals between 20 and 45 km from January 1995 to April 2011, a period of low volcanic aerosol loading. Explanatory variables representing the 11-yr solar cycle, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the Eliassen–Palm flux, and horizontal and vertical transport were used. A new proxy, the mid-latitude ozone depleting gas index, which shows a decrease with time as an outcome of the Montreal Protocol, was introduced and compared to the more commonly used linear trend method. The analysis also compares the lidar time-series and a merged time-series obtained from the space-borne stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II, halogen occultation experiment, and Aura-microwave limb sounder instruments. The results from both lidar and satellite measurements are consistent with recent model simulations which propose changes in tropical upwelling. Additionally, at TMF the ozone depleting gas index explains as much variance as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the upper stratosphere. Over the past 17 yr a diminishing downward trend in ozone was observed before 2000 and a net increase, and sign of ozone recovery, is observed after 2005. Our results which include dynamical proxies suggest possible coupling between horizontal transport and the 11-yr solar cycle response, although a dataset spanning a period longer than one solar cycle is needed to confirm this result.

scholarly journals Population Pharmacokinetics of Fluconazole in Young Infants

2008 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 4043-4049 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. C. Wade ◽  
D. Wu ◽  
D. A. Kaufman ◽  
R. M. Ward ◽  
D. K. Benjamin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Volume Of Distribution ◽  
Relative Standard Error ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Young Infants ◽  
Relative Standard ◽  
Population Pk ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Fluconazole is being increasingly used to prevent and treat invasive candidiasis in neonates, yet dosing is largely empirical due to the lack of adequate pharmacokinetic (PK) data. We performed a multicenter population PK study of fluconazole in 23- to 40-week-gestation infants less than 120 days of age. We developed a population PK model using nonlinear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM) with the NONMEM algorithm. Covariate effects were predefined and evaluated based on estimation precision and clinical significance. We studied fluconazole PK in 55 infants who at enrollment had a median (range) weight of 1.02 (0.440 to 7.125) kg, a gestational age at birth (BGA) of 26 (23 to 40) weeks, and a postnatal age (PNA) of 2.3 (0.14 to 12.6) weeks. The final data set contained 357 samples; 217/357 (61%) were collected prospectively at prespecified time intervals, and 140/357 (39%) were scavenged from discarded clinical specimens. Fluconazole population PK was best described by a one-compartment model with covariates normalized to median values. The population mean clearance (CL) can be derived for this population by the equation CL (liter/h) equals 0.015 · (weight/1)0.75 · (BGA/26)1.739 · (PNA/2)0.237 · serum creatinine (SCRT)−4.896 (when SCRT is >1.0 mg/dl), and using a volume of distribution (V) (liter) of 1.024 · (weight/1). The relative standard error around the fixed effects point estimates ranged from 3 to 24%. CL doubles between birth and 28 days of age from 0.008 to 0.016 and from 0.010 to 0.022 liter/kg/h for typical 24- and 32-week-gestation infants, respectively. This population PK model of fluconazole discriminated the impact of BGA, PNA, and creatinine on drug CL. Our data suggest that dosing in young infants will require adjustment for BGA and PNA to achieve targeted systemic drug exposures.

scholarly journals Analysis of SAGE II ozone of the middle and upper stratosphere for its response to a decadal-scale forcing

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 11779-11790 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Remsberg ◽  
G. Lingenfelser
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Signal Sensitivity ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

Abstract. Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) Version 6.2 ozone profiles are analyzed for their decadal-scale responses in the middle and upper stratosphere from September 1991 to August 2005. The profile data are averaged within twelve, 20°-wide latitude bins from 55° S to 55° N and at twelve altitudes from 27.5 to 55.0 km. The separate, 14-yr data time series are analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) models that include seasonal, 28 and 21-month, 11-yr sinusoid, and linear trend terms. Proxies are not used for the 28-mo (QBO-like), 11-yr solar uv-flux, or reactive chlorine terms. Instead, the present analysis focuses on the periodic 11-yr terms to see whether they are in-phase with that of a direct, uv-flux forcing or are dominated by some other decadal-scale influence. It is shown that they are in-phase over most of the latitude/altitude domain and that they have max minus min variations between 25° S and 25° N that peak near 4% between 30 and 40 km. Model simulations of the direct effects of uv-flux forcings agree with this finding. The shape of the 11-yr ozone response profile from SAGE II also agrees with that diagnosed for the stratosphere over the same time period from the HALOE data. Ozone in the middle stratosphere of the northern subtropics is perturbed during 1991−1992 following the eruption of Pinatubo, and there are pronounced decadal-scale variations in the ozone of the upper stratosphere for the northern middle latitudes presumably due to dynamical forcings. The 11-yr ozone responses of the southern hemisphere appear to be free of those extra influences. The associated linear trend terms from the SAGE II analyses are slightly negative (−2 to −4%/decade) between 35 and 45 km and nearly constant across latitude. This finding is consistent with the fact that ozone is estimated to have decreased by no more than 1.5% due to the increasing chlorine from mid-1992 to about 2000 but with little change thereafter. It is concluded that a satellite, solar occultation measurement provides both the signal sensitivity and the vertical resolution to record the stratospheric ozone response to the forcing from the solar uv-flux, as well as those due to any other long-term changes.

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