scholarly journals Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3321-3334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming “no intervention” with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2, which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production, and the cost–benefit analysis of the measures' implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.

scholarly journals Assessment of co-benefits of black carbon emission reduction measures in Southeast Asia: Part 2 emission scenarios for 2030 and co-benefits on mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Premature Deaths

Abstract. Following Part 1 (Permadi et al., 2017a) which focuses on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF/CHIMERE performance in 2007, this paper presents Part 2 of our research detailing the quantification of co-benefits resulted in the future (2030) from black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries. The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007) assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past decadal activity data (Indonesia and Thailand) and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emission in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (on-road transport, residential cooking, industry, and biomass open burning) while for other countries the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF/CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the SEA domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ/INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD assuming the internal mixing state for the two future scenarios. Health benefits were analyzed in term of the avoided number of premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction while the climate benefits were quantified using the reduction in the BC radiative forcing under RED2030. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100,000 population in the domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut-down (avoided) by 59 from the RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC radiative forcing in SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2 which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial co-benefits on human health and BC climate forcing reduction in SEA could be resulted from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other benefits such as for the agricultural crop production, and the cost benefit analysis of the measures implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.

scholarly journals Integrated emission inventory and modeling to assess distribution of particulate matter mass and black carbon composition in Southeast Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2725-2747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Climate Forcing

Abstract. This is part of a research study addressing the potential co-benefits associated with selected black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures on mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing in Southeast Asia (SEA). This paper presents details of emission inventory (EI) results and WRF–CHIMERE model performance evaluation. The SEA regional emissions for 2007 were updated with our EI results for Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia and used for the model input. WRF–CHIMERE-simulated 2007 PM10, PM2.5, and BC over the SEA domain (0.25° × 0.25°) and the results were evaluated against the available meteorology and air quality monitoring data in the domain. WRF hourly simulation results were evaluated using the observed data at eight international airport stations in five SEA countries and showed a satisfactory performance. WRF–CHIMERE results for PM10 and PM2.5 showed strong seasonal influence of biomass open burning while the BC distribution showed the influence of urban activities in big SEA cities. Daily average PM10 constructed from the hourly concentrations were obtained from the automatic monitoring stations in three large SEA cities, i.e., Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Surabaya, for model evaluation. The daily observed PM2.5 and BC concentrations obtained from the Improving Air Quality in Asian Developing Countries (AIRPET) project for four cities (i.e., Bangkok, Hanoi, Bandung, and Manila) were also used for model evaluation. In addition, hourly BC concentrations were taken from the measurement results of the Asian Pacific Network (APN) project at a suburban site in Bangkok. The modeled PM10 and BC satisfactorily met all suggested statistical criteria for PM evaluation. The modeled PM2.5∕PM10 ratios estimated for four AIRPET sites ranged between 0.47 and 0.59, lower than observed values of 0.6–0.83. Better agreement was found for BC∕PM2.5 ratios with the modeled values of 0.05–0.33 as compared to the observation values of 0.05–0.28. AODEM (extended aerosol optical depth module) was used to calculate the total columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD) and BC AOD up to the top of the domain at 500 hPa (∼ 5500 m), which did not include the free-tropospheric long-range transport of the pollution. The model AOD results calculated using the internal mixing assumption were evaluated against the observed AOD by both AERONET and MODIS satellite in 10 countries in the domain. Our model results showed that the BC AOD contributed 7.5–12 % of the total AOD, which was in the same range reported by other studies for places with intensive emissions. The results of this paper are used to calculate the regional aerosol direct radiative forcing under different emission reduction scenarios to explore potential co-benefits for air quality improvement, reduction in the number of premature deaths, and climate forcing mitigation in SEA in 2030 (Permadi et al., 2017a).

scholarly journals Assessment of co-benefits of black carbon emission reduction measures in Southeast Asia: Part 1 emission inventory and simulation for the base year 2007

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didin Agustian Permadi ◽  
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh ◽  
Robert Vautard
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Urban Site

Abstract. This research assessed the potential co-benefits associated with selected black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures on mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing in Southeast Asia (SEA). This paper presents Part 1 of the research with details on the emission inventory (EI) results and the WRF/CHIMERE model performance evaluation. The SEA regional emissions for 2007 were updated with our EI results for Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia and used for the model input. WRF/CHIMERE simulated PM10, PM2.5 and BC over the SEA domain (0.25º x 0.25º) of the year 2007 and the results were evaluated against the available monitoring data in the domain. WRF hourly simulation results were evaluated using the observed data at 8 international airport stations in 5 SEA countries and showed a satisfactory performance. WRF/CHIMERE results for PM10 and PM2.5 showed strong seasonal influence of biomass open burning while BC distribution showed the influence of urban activities in big SEA cities. Daily average PM10 constructed from the hourly concentrations were obtained from the automatic monitoring stations in three SEA large cities, i.e. Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Surabaya for model evaluation. The daily observed PM2.5 and BC concentrations obtained from the Improving Air Quality in the Asian Developing Countries (AIRPET) project for 4 cities (i.e. Bangkok, Hanoi, Bandung, and Manila) were also used for model evaluation. In addition, hourly BC concentrations were taken from the measurement results of the Asian Pacific Network (APN) project at a sub-urban site in Bangkok. The modeled PM10 and BC satisfactorily met all suggested statistical criteria for PM evaluation. The modeled PM2.5/PM10 ratios estimated for four AIRPET sites ranged between 0.47–0.59, lower than observed values of 0.6–0.83. Better agreement was found for BC/PM2.5 ratios with the modeled values of 0.05–0.33 as compared to the observation values of 0.05–0.28. AODEM (extended aerosol optical depth module) was used to calculate the total columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD) and BC AOD using the internal mixing assumption. The model AOD results were evaluated against the observed AOD by both AERONET and MODIS satellite in 10 countries in the domain. Our model results showed that the BC AOD contributed 7.5–12 % of the total AOD, which was in the same ranges reported by other studies for places with intensive emissions. The Part 1 results (this study) is used in Part 2 (Permadi et al., 2017a) which calculates the regional aerosol direct radiative forcing under different emission reduction scenarios to explore potential co-benefits for air quality improvement, reduction in number of premature deaths and climate forcing mitigation in SEA in 2030.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne T. Lund ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Acid ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Model Measurement ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Despite recent improvements, significant uncertainties in global modeling of black carbon (BC) aerosols persist, posing important challenges for the design and evaluation of effective climate mitigation strategies targeted at BC emission reductions. Here we investigate the sensitivity of BC concentrations in the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol parameterization M7 (OsloCTM2-M7) to parameters controlling aerosol aging and scavenging. We focus on Arctic surface concentrations and remote region BC vertical profiles, and introduce a novel treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. The OsloCTM2-M7 underestimates annual averaged BC surface concentrations, with a mean normalized bias of −0.55. The seasonal cycle and magnitude of Arctic BC surface concentrations is improved compared to previous OsloCTM2 studies, but model-measurement discrepancies during spring remain. High-altitude BC over the Pacific is overestimated compared with measurements from the HIPPO campaigns. We find that a shorter global BC lifetime improves the agreement with HIPPO, in line with other recent studies. Several processes can achieve this, including allowing for convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC and reducing the amount of soluble material required for aging. Simultaneously, the concentrations in the Arctic are reduced, resulting in poorer agreement with measurements in part of the region. A first step towards inclusion of aging by nitrate in OsloCTM2-M7 is made by allowing for condensation of nitric acid on BC. This results in a faster aging and reduced lifetime, and in turn to a better agreement with the HIPPO measurements. On the other hand, model-measurement discrepancies in the Arctic are exacerbated. Work to further improve this parameterization is needed. The impact on global mean radiative forcing (RF) and surface temperature response (TS) in our experiments is estimated. Compared to the baseline, decreases in global mean direct RF on the order of 10–30 % of the total pre-industrial to present BC direct RF is estimated for the experiments that result in the largest changes in BC concentrations. We show that globally tuning parameters related to BC aging and scavenging can improve the representation of BC vertical profiles in the OsloCTM2-M7 compared with observations. Our results also show that such improvements can result from changes in several processes and often depend on assumptions about uncertain parameters such as the BC ice nucleating efficiency and the change in hygroscopicity with aging. It is also important to be aware of potential tradeoffs in model performance between different regions. Other important sources of uncertainty, particularly for Arctic BC, such as model resolution has not been investigated here. Our results underline the importance of more observations and experimental data to improve process understanding and thus further constrain models.

scholarly journals The Impact of Future Emission Policies on Tropospheric Ozone using a Parameterised Approach

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Yanko Davila ◽  
Louisa Emmons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Source Attribution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
Tropospheric O3 ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source-receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using HadGEM2-ES confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation are valid. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remains one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and South Asian regions. Emission changes for the future ECLIPSE scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050 across different regions. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3.

scholarly journals Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2423-2434 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. H. Samset ◽  
G. Myhre ◽  
M. Schulz ◽  
Y. Balkanski ◽  
S. Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

scholarly journals Avoided Mortality Associated with Improved Air Quality from an Increase in Renewable Energy in the Spanish Transport Sector: Use of Biofuels and the Adoption of the Electric Car

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1603
Author(s):  
Ana R. Gamarra ◽  
Yolanda Lechón ◽  
Marta G. Vivanco ◽  
Mark Richard Theobald ◽  
Carmen Lago ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Electric Car ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the health impact, in terms of the reduction of premature deaths associated with changes in air pollutant exposure, resulting from double-aim strategies for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from the transport sector for the year 2030 in Spain. The impact on air quality of selected measures for reducing emissions from the transport sector (increased penetration of biofuel and electric car use) was assessed by air quality modeling. The estimation of population exposure to NO2, particulate matter (PM) and O3 allows for estimation of associated mortality and external costs in comparison with the baseline scenario with no measures. The results show that the penetration of the electric vehicle provided the largest benefits, even when the emissions due to the additional electricity demand were considered.

scholarly journals The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part 1: 2012 emissions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 7509-7530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Tang ◽  
Martin O. P. Ramacher ◽  
Jana Moldanová ◽  
Volker Matthias ◽  
Matthias Karl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
The North ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract. Ship emissions in and around ports are of interest for urban air quality management in many harbour cities. We investigated the impact of regional and local ship emissions on urban air quality for 2012 conditions in the city of Gothenburg, Sweden, the largest cargo port in Scandinavia. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions, a coupled regional- and local-scale model system has been set up using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as well as in and around the port of Gothenburg. Ship emissions were calculated with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM), taking into account individual vessel characteristics and vessel activity data. The calculated contributions from local and regional shipping to local air pollution in Gothenburg were found to be substantial, especially in areas around the city ports. The relative contribution from local shipping to annual mean NO2 concentrations was 14 % as the model domain average, while the relative contribution from regional shipping in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea was 26 %. In an area close to the city terminals, the contribution of NO2 from local shipping (33 %) was higher than that of road traffic (28 %), which indicates the importance of controlling local shipping emissions. Local shipping emissions of NOx led to a decrease in the summer mean O3 levels in the city by 0.5 ppb (∼2 %) on average. Regional shipping led to a slight increase in O3 concentrations; however, the overall effect of regional and the local shipping together was a small decrease in the summer mean O3 concentrations in the city. In addition, volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from local shipping compensate up to 4 ppb of the decrease in summer O3 concentrations due to the NO titration effect. For particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5), local ship emissions contributed only 3 % to the annual mean in the model domain, while regional shipping under 2012 conditions was a larger contributor, with an annual mean contribution of 11 % of the city domain average. Based on the modelled local and regional shipping contributions, the health effects of PM2.5, NO2 and ozone were assessed using the ALPHA-RiskPoll (ARP) model. An effect of the shipping-associated PM2.5 exposure in the modelled area was a mean decrease in the life expectancy by 0.015 years per person. The relative contribution of local shipping to the impact of total PM2.5 was 2.2 %, which can be compared to the 5.3 % contribution from local road traffic. The relative contribution of the regional shipping was 10.3 %. The mortalities due to the exposure to NO2 associated with shipping were calculated to be 2.6 premature deaths yr−1. The relative contribution of local and regional shipping to the total exposure to NO2 in the reference simulation was 14 % and 21 %, respectively. The shipping-related ozone exposures were due to the NO titration effect leading to a negative number of premature deaths. Our study shows that overall health impacts of regional shipping can be more significant than those of local shipping, emphasizing that abatement policy options on city-scale air pollution require close cooperation across governance levels. Our findings indicate that the strengthened Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) fuel sulphur limit from 1 % to 0.1 % in 2015, leading to a strong decrease in the formation of secondary particulate matter on a regional scale was an important step in improving the air quality in the city.

scholarly journals Impacts of Current and Projected Oil Palm Plantation Expansion on Air Quality Over Southeast Asia

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam J. Silva ◽  
Colette L. Heald ◽  
Jeffrey A. Geddes ◽  
Kemen G. Austin ◽  
Prasad S. Kasibhatla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Oil Palm Plantation ◽  
Deposition Velocities ◽  
Current Constellation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). According to the United Nations, oil palm production in SEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impacts of current (2010) and future (2020) oil palm expansion in SEA on surface-atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in the region. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palm plantation scenario (~ 1990), overall simulated isoprene emissions in the region increase by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and a further 11 % by 2020. In addition, the expansion of palm plantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to 20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEA increases surface O3 by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels by 2020. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to 1 μg m−3 due to oil palm expansion, and could increase a further 2.5 μg m−3 by 2020. Our analysis indicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air quality in the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue to degrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts to achieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

ESTIMATING HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF CLIMATE POLICIES IN CHINA: AN APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL EMISSIONS-AIR QUALITY-CLIMATE-HEALTH (REACH) FRAMEWORK

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2041004
Author(s):  
CHENFEI QU ◽  
XI YANG ◽  
DA ZHANG ◽  
XILIANG ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Regional Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Climate policies can bring local air quality and health co-benefits, which may partially or entirely offset the costs of implementing these policies. In this study, we introduce an integrated health co-benefits assessment model, the Regional Emissions-Air quality-Climate-Health (REACH) Modeling Framework, which is capable of evaluating the impact of policies on air pollution-related mortality and morbidity in the whole economic system overtime at the provincial level for China. We first provide a detailed description of the modeling framework and conduct a case study to estimate the health benefits of different climate policy scenarios. We show that a scenario consistent with the 2∘C target that peaks China’s emissions before 2025 could avoid around 190 thousand premature deaths in 2030. The health benefits could partially or fully cover the policy costs under different assumptions of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Our framework also illustrates that estimated costs and health benefits distribute unevenly across regions in China.

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