scholarly journals Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Dentener ◽  
M. van Weele ◽  
M. Krol ◽  
S. Houweling ◽  
P. van Velthoven
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Anthropogenic Emission ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979 -1993) re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions, (45-90 N, 0-45 N, 0-45 S; 45-90 S) we find good agreement in each region between (top-down) calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up) estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979 -1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr -1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8 Tg CH4 yr -1, and most likely related to mid- and low-latitude wetland emissions and/or biomass burning. Indeed, a weak correlation is found between the residual emissions and regional scale temperatures.

scholarly journals Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Dentener ◽  
M. van Weele ◽  
M. Krol ◽  
S. Houweling ◽  
P. van Velthoven
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Anthropogenic Emission ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Ozone Precursor

Abstract. The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993) re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S) we find good agreement in each region between (top-down) calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up) estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

scholarly journals Indirect nitrous oxide emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt scale with stream order

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (32) ◽  
pp. 9839-9843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Turner ◽  
Timothy J. Griffis ◽  
Xuhui Lee ◽  
John M. Baker ◽  
Rodney T. Venterea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Nitrous Oxide Emissions ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Stream Order ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The Us

N2O is an important greenhouse gas and the primary stratospheric ozone depleting substance. Its deleterious effects on the environment have prompted appeals to regulate emissions from agriculture, which represents the primary anthropogenic source in the global N2O budget. Successful implementation of mitigation strategies requires robust bottom-up inventories that are based on emission factors (EFs), simulation models, or a combination of the two. Top-down emission estimates, based on tall-tower and aircraft observations, indicate that bottom-up inventories severely underestimate regional and continental scale N2O emissions, implying that EFs may be biased low. Here, we measured N2O emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt using a chamber-based approach and analyzed the data as a function of Strahler stream order (S). N2O fluxes from headwater streams often exceeded 29 nmol N2O-N m−2⋅s−1 and decreased exponentially as a function of S. This relation was used to scale up riverine emissions and to assess the differences between bottom-up and top-down emission inventories at the local to regional scale. We found that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indirect EF for rivers (EF5r) is underestimated up to ninefold in southern Minnesota, which translates to a total tier 1 agricultural underestimation of N2O emissions by 40%. We show that accounting for zero-order streams as potential N2O hotspots can more than double the agricultural budget. Applying the same analysis to the US Corn Belt demonstrates that the IPCC EF5r underestimation explains the large differences observed between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates.

scholarly journals Majority of US urban natural gas emissions unaccounted for in inventories

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (44) ◽  
pp. e2105804118
Author(s):  
Maryann R. Sargent ◽  
Cody Floerchinger ◽  
Kathryn McKain ◽  
John Budney ◽  
Elaine W. Gottlieb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
End Use

Across many cities, estimates of methane emissions from natural gas (NG) distribution and end use based on atmospheric measurements have generally been more than double bottom-up estimates. We present a top-down study of NG methane emissions from the Boston urban region spanning 8 y (2012 to 2020) to assess total emissions, their seasonality, and trends. We used methane and ethane observations from five sites in and around Boston, combined with a high-resolution transport model, to calculate methane emissions of 76 ± 18 Gg/yr, with 49 ± 9 Gg/yr attributed to NG losses. We found no significant trend in the NG loss rate over 8 y, despite efforts from the city and state to increase the rate of repairing NG pipeline leaks. We estimate that 2.5 ± 0.5% of the gas entering the urban region is lost, approximately three times higher than bottom-up estimates. We saw a strong correlation between top-down NG emissions and NG consumed on a seasonal basis. This suggests that consumption-driven losses, such as in transmission or end-use, may be a large component of emissions that is missing from inventories, and require future policy action. We also compared top-down NG emission estimates from six US cities, all of which indicate significant missing sources in bottom-up inventories. Across these cities, we estimate NG losses from distribution and end use amount to 20 to 36% of all losses from the US NG supply chain, with a total loss rate of 3.3 to 4.7% of NG from well pad to urban consumer, notably larger than the current Environmental Protection Agency estimate of 1.4% [R. A. Alvarez et al., Science 361, 186–188 (2018)].

scholarly journals Abundance and Sources of Atmospheric Halocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Schoenenberger ◽  
Stephan Henne ◽  
Matthias Hill ◽  
Martin K. Vollmer ◽  
Giorgos Kouvarakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Inversion Domain ◽  
Hfc 134A ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Hfc 152A

Abstract. A wide range of anthropogenic halocarbons is released to the atmosphere, contributing to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Using measurements of atmospheric abundances for the estimation of halocarbon emissions on the global and regional scale has become an important top-down tool for emission validation in the recent past, but many populated and developing areas of the world are only poorly covered by the existing atmospheric halocarbon measurement network. Here we present six months of continuous halocarbon observations from Finokalia on the island of Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean. The gases measured are the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3), HFC-125 (CHF2CF3), HFC-152a (CH3CHF2) and HFC-143a (CH3CF3), and the hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2). The Eastern Mediterranean is home to 250 million inhabitants, consisting of a number of developed and developing countries, for which different emission regulations exist under the Kyoto and Montreal Protocols. Regional emissions of halocarbons were estimated with Lagrangian atmospheric transport simulations and a Bayesian inverse modelling system, using measurements at Finokalia in conjunction with those from Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) sites at Mace Head (Ireland), Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and Monte Cimone (Italy). Measured peak mole fractions at Finokalia showed generally smaller amplitudes for HFCs than at the European AGAGE sites, except periodic peaks of HFC-152a, indicating strong upwind sources. Higher peak mole fractions were observed for HCFCs, suggesting continued emissions from nearby developing regions such as Egypt and the Middle East. For 2013, the Eastern Mediterranean inverse emission estimates for the four analysed HFCs and the two HCFCs were 14.7 (6.7–23.3) Tg CO2eq yr-1 and 9.7 (4.3–15.7) Tg CO2eq yr-1, respectively. These emissions contributed 17.3 % (7.9–27.4 %) and 53 % (23.5–86%) to the total inversion domain, which covers the Eastern Mediterranean as well as Central and Western Europe. Greek bottom-up HFC emissions reported to the UNFCCC were much smaller than our top-down estimates, whereas for Turkey our estimates agreed with UNFCCC-reported values for HFC-125 and HFC-143a, but were much and slightly smaller for HFC-134a and HFC-152a, respectively. Sensitivity estimates suggest an improvement of the a posteriori emission estimates, i.e. a reduction of the uncertainties by 40–80 %, compared to an inversion using only the existing Central European AGAGE observations.

scholarly journals Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marielle Saunois ◽  
Philippe Bousquet ◽  
Benjamin Poulter ◽  
Anna Peregon ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Following the recent Global Carbon project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling frameworks) and bottom-up models, inventories, and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seems to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the EDGARv4.2 inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. Though the sectorial partitioning of six individual top-down studies out of eight are not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4, the partitioning derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that, the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. Besides, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. The methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) has not been investigated in detail in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes.

scholarly journals Emissions of Carbon Tetrachloride (CCl<sub>4</sub>) from Europe

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Graziosi ◽  
Jgor Arduini ◽  
Paolo Bonasoni ◽  
Francesco Furlani ◽  
Umberto Giostra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Tetrachloride ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Atmospheric Observations ◽  
Global Emissions

Abstract. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a long-lived radiatively-active compound able to destroy stratospheric ozone. Due to its inclusion in the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the last two decades have seen a sharp decrease in its large scale emissive use with a consequent decline of its atmospheric mole fractions. However, the Montreal Protocol restrictions do not apply to the use of carbon tetrachloride as feedstock for the production of other chemicals, implying the risk of fugitive emissions from the industry sector. The occurrence of such unintended emissions is suggested by a significant discrepancy between global emissions as derived by reported production and feedstock usage (bottom-up emissions), and those based on atmospheric observations (top-down emissions). In order to better constrain the atmospheric budget of carbon tetrachloride, several studies based on a combination of atmospheric observations and inverse modelling have been conducted in recent years in various regions of the world. This study is focused on the European scale and based on long-term high-frequency observations at three European sites, combined with a Bayesian inversion methodology. We estimated that average European emissions for 2006–2014 were 2.3 (± 0.8) Gg yr−1, with an average decreasing trend of 7.3 % per year. Our analysis identified France as the main source of emissions over the whole study period, with an average contribution to total European emissions of 25 %. The inversion was also able to allow the localisation of emission "hot-spots" in the domain, with major source areas in Southern France, Central England (UK) and Benelux (Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg), where most of industrial scale production of basic organic chemicals are located. According to our results, European emissions correspond to 4.0 % of global emissions for 2006–2012. Together with other regional studies, our results allow a better constraint of the global budget of carbon tetrachloride and a better quantification of the gap between top-down and bottom-up estimates.

scholarly journals Bottom-up versus top-down factor investing: an alpha forecasting perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Zurek ◽  
Lars Heinrich
Keyword(s):  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Firm Characteristics ◽  
Recent Discussion ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Factor Investing ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
The Difference

AbstractIn a recent discussion about efficient ways to combine multiple firm characteristics into a multifactor portfolio, a distinction was made between the bottom-up and top-down approach. Both approaches integrate characteristics with equal weights and ignore interaction effects from differences in informational content and correlations between the firm characteristics. The authors complement the bottom-up approach for the missing interaction effects by implementing a linear alpha forecasting framework. Bottom-up versus top-down factor investing is typically discussed using the assumption that all characteristics are equally priced, but the pricing impact of different firm characteristics can vary tremendously. The alpha forecasting perspective provides a theoretical motivation for factor investing and helps to compare the bottom-up and top-down approach with regard to the difference of informational content and interaction effects between firm characteristics. Taking into account the difference in informational content between firm characteristics leads to significant performance improvement in factor models with a high concentration of informational content. Equally weighted characteristics result in related performance irrespective of whether the bottom-up or top-down approach is applied.

scholarly journals Tagged ozone mechanism for MOZART-4, CAM-chem and other chemical transport models

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1531-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
P. G. Hess ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
G. G. Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Chemical Tracers ◽  
Source Contributions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
No Emissions

Abstract. A procedure for tagging ozone produced from NO sources through updates to an existing chemical mechanism is described, and results from its implementation in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART-4), a global chemical transport model, are presented. Artificial tracers are added to the mechanism, thus, not affecting the standard chemistry. The results are linear in the troposphere, i.e., the sum of ozone from individual tagged sources equals the ozone from all sources to within 3% in zonal mean monthly averages. In addition, the tagged ozone is shown to equal the standard ozone, when all tropospheric sources are tagged and stratospheric input is turned off. The stratospheric ozone contribution to the troposphere determined from the difference between total ozone and ozone from all tagged sources is significantly less than estimates using a traditional stratospheric ozone tracer (8 vs. 20 ppbv at the surface). The commonly used technique of perturbing NO emissions by 20% in a region to determine its ozone contribution is compared to the tagging technique, showing that the tagged ozone is 2–4 times the ozone contribution that was deduced from perturbing emissions. The ozone tagging described here is useful for identifying source contributions based on NO emissions in a given state of the atmosphere, such as for quantifying the ozone budget.

Top-down Support of Swiss non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting to UNFCCC

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Henne ◽  
Martin K. Vollmer ◽  
Martin Steinbacher ◽  
Markus Leuenberger ◽  
Frank Meinhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Halogenated Compound

&lt;p&gt;Globally, emissions of long-lived non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; greenhouse gases (GHG; methane, nitrous oxide and halogenated compounds) account for approximately 30 % of the radiative forcing of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. In industrialised countries, &amp;#8216;bottom-up&amp;#8217; estimates come with relatively large uncertainties for anthropogenic non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; GHGs when compared with those of anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. 'Top-down' methods on the country scale offer an independent support tool to reduce these uncertainties and detect biases in emissions reported to the UNFCCC. Based on atmospheric concentration observations these tools are also able to detect the effectiveness of emission mitigation measures on the long term.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Since 2012 the Swiss national inventory reporting (NIR) contains an appendix on 'top-down' studies for selected halogenated compound. Subsequently, this appendix was extended to include methane and nitrous oxide. Here, we present these updated (2020 submission) regional-scale (~300 x 200 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) atmospheric inversion studies for non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; GHG emission estimates in Switzerland, making use of observations on the Swiss Plateau (Berom&amp;#252;nster tall tower) as well as the neighbouring mountain-top sites Jungfraujoch and Schauinsland.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We report spatially and temporally resolved Swiss emissions for CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; (2013-2019), N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O (2017-2019) and total Swiss emissions for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and SF&lt;sub&gt;6&lt;/sub&gt; (2009-2019) based on a Bayesian inversion system and a tracer ratio method, respectively. Both approaches make use of transport simulations applying the high-resolution (7 x 7 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART-COSMO). We compare these 'top-down' estimates to the 'bottom-up' results reported by Switzerland to the UNFCCC. Although we find good agreement between the two estimates for some species (CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;, N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O), emissions of other compounds (e.g., considerably lower 'top-down' estimates for HFC-134a) show larger discrepancies. Potential reasons for the disagreements are discussed. Currently, our 'top-down' information is only used for comparative purposes and does not feed back into the 'bottom-up' inventory.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 5515-5533 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Xiao ◽  
R. G. Prinn ◽  
P. J. Fraser ◽  
P. G. Simmonds ◽  
R. F. Weiss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Methyl Chloride ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Source And Sink

Abstract. Methyl chloride (CH3Cl) is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH3Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH3Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method) to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr−1 with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr−1 from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH3Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

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