Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat wave in the UK

Abstract. A high resolution (5×5 km2) UK-scale chemistry-transport model (EMEP4UK) is used to study ground-level ozone (O3) during the August 2003 heat-wave. Meteorology is generated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, nudged every six hours with reanalysis data. We focus on SE England, where hourly average O3 reached up to 140 ppb during the heat-wave. EMEP4UK accurately reproduces observed annual and diurnal cycles of surface O3 at urban and rural sites. Elevated O3 and much of its day-to-day variability during the heat-wave are well captured. Key O3 precursors, nitrogen dioxide and isoprene (C5H8), are less well simulated, but show generally accurate diurnal cycles and concentrations to within a factor of ~2–3 of observations. The modelled surface O3 distribution has an intricate spatio-temporal structure, governed by a combination of meteorology, emissions and photochemistry. A series of sensitivity runs with the model are used to explore the factors that influenced O3 levels during the heat-wave. Various factors appear to be important on different days and at different sites. Ozone imported from outside the model domain, especially the south, is very important on several days during the heat-wave, contributing up to 85 ppb. Dry deposition of O3, when completely switched off, elevated simulated O3 by up to 50 ppb, and this may have been an important factor on several days. Modelled C5H8 concentrations are generally best simulated if C5H8 emissions are changed from the base emissions: typically doubled, but elevated by up to a factor of five on some days. Accurately modelling the exact positions of individual plumes of anthropogenically emitted nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds is crucial for the successful simulation of O3 at a particular time and location. Variations in surface temperature of ±5 K were found to have impacts on O3 of typically less than ±10 ppb.

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Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat-wave in the UK

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-7963-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (16) ◽

pp. 7963-7978 ◽

Cited By ~ 110

Author(s):

M. Vieno ◽

A. J. Dore ◽

D. S. Stevenson ◽

R. Doherty ◽

M. R. Heal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Transport Model ◽

Temporal Structure ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Ground Level ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Diurnal Cycles ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Uk

Abstract. The EMEP4UK modelling system is a high resolution (5×5 km2) application of the EMEP chemistry-transport model, designed for scientific and policy studies in the UK. We demonstrate the use and performance of the EMEP4UK system through the study of ground-level ozone (O3) during the extreme August 2003 heat-wave. Meteorology is generated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, nudged every six hours with reanalysis data. We focus on SE England, where hourly average O3 reached up to 140 ppb during the heat-wave. EMEP4UK accurately reproduces elevated O3 and much of its day-to-day variability during the heat-wave. Key O3 precursors, nitrogen dioxide and isoprene, are less well simulated, but show generally accurate diurnal cycles and concentrations to within a factor of ~2–3 of observations. The modelled surface O3 distribution has an intricate spatio-temporal structure, governed by a combination of meteorology, emissions and photochemistry. A series of sensitivity runs with the model are used to explore the factors that influenced O3 levels during the heat-wave. Various factors appear to be important on different days and at different sites. Ozone imported from outside the model domain, especially the south, is very important on several days during the heat-wave, contributing up to 85 ppb. The effect of dry deposition is also important on several days. Modelled isoprene concentrations are generally best simulated if isoprene emissions are changed from the base emissions: typically doubled, but elevated by up to a factor of five on one hot day. We found that accurate modelling of the exact positions of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound plumes is crucial for the successful simulation of O3 at a particular time and location. Variations in temperature of ±5 K were found to have impacts on O3 of typically less than ±10 ppb.

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A global model study of ozone enhancement during the August 2003 heat wave in Europe

Environmental Chemistry ◽

10.1071/en07027 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 285 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

G. Guerova ◽

N. Jones

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Transport Model ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Model Study ◽

Reactive Pollutant ◽

Surface O3

Environmental context. During the 2003 European summer, record high temperatures were measured and some regions experienced 14 consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 35°C, thus triggering a heat wave. The prolonged heat and strong insolation facilitated the build up of exceptionally long-lasting and spatially extensive episodes of high ozone concentrations close to the surface. Ozone is a very reactive pollutant with known effects on both human and vegetation health. It is important to build robust models that can predict its concentration in a similar manner to which weather prediction models operate. Abstract. The European summer of 2003 was characterised by intense heat, prolonged isolation and suppressed ventilation of the boundary layer which, combined with large anthropogenic emissions and strong fires, resulted in a build up of an unprecedentedly high and long-lasting photochemical smog over large parts of the continent. In this work, a global chemistry and transport model GEOS-Chem is compared with surface O3 concentrations observed in 2003 in order to examine the extent to which the model is capable of reproducing such an extreme event. The GEOS-Chem reproduces the temporal variation of O3 at the Jungfraujoch mountain site, Switzerland, including the enhanced concentrations associated with the August 2003 heat wave (r = 0.84). The spatial distribution of the enhanced surface O3 over Spain, France, Germany and Italy is also captured to some extent (r = 0.63), although the largest concentrations appear to be located over the Italian Peninsula in the model rather than over Central Europe as suggested by the surface O3 observations. In general, the observed differences between the European averaged O3 concentrations in the summer of 2003 to those in 2004 are larger in the observations than in the model, as the model reproduces relatively well the enhanced levels in 2003 but overestimates those observed in 2004. Preliminary contributions of various sources to the O3 surface concentrations over Europe during the heat wave indicate that anthropogenic emissions from Europe contribute the most to the O3 build up near the surface (40 to 50%, i.e. 30 ppb). The contribution from anthropogenic emissions from the other major source regions of the northern hemisphere, in particular North America, tends to be smaller than those of other years. The model indicates that the large fires that occurred in that year contributed up to 5% (3 ppb) to surface O3 in close proximity to the fire regions and less elsewhere in Europe. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by grass and forest areas contributed up to 10% (5–6 ppb) of surface O3 over France, Germany and northern Italy, which represents a contribution that is twice as large than that found in 2004. These results in terms of contributions from various sources, particularly biogenic emissions, should be seen as preliminary, as the response of vegetation to such extreme events may not be well represented in the model.

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Scorched earth: how will changes in ozone deposition caused by drought affect human health and ecosystems?

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-27847-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 27847-27889 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

L. D. Emberson ◽

N. Kitwiroon ◽

S. Beevers ◽

P. Büker ◽

S. Cinderby

Keyword(s):

Human Health ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Dry Deposition ◽

Transport Model ◽

Ground Level ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Wave Type ◽

Drought Period ◽

Ecosystem Risk ◽

The Uk

Abstract. This unique study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred during the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006; (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risk of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8-h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m−3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and Eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to protection from O3 across the UK. The study therefore emphasises the importance of accurate estimates of O3 deposition both for human health and ecosystem risk assessments. Extended periods of drought and heat wave type conditions are likely to occur with more frequency in coming decades, therefore understanding the importance of these effects will be crucial to inform the development of appropriate national and international policy to mitigate against the worst consequences of this air pollutant.

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Average versus high surface ozone levels over the continental U.S.A.: Model bias, background influences, and interannual variability

10.5194/acp-2018-115 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jean J. Guo ◽

Arlene M. Fiore ◽

Lee T. Murray ◽

Daniel A. Jaffe ◽

Jordan L. Schnell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Interannual Variability ◽

Transport Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

High Surface ◽

Anthropogenic Sources ◽

Pollution Transport ◽

Natural Sources ◽

Model Biases ◽

Regional Sources ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. U.S. background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the U.S.A., from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry-transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background versus U.S. anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over ten continental U.S. regions from 2004–2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0–19 ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern U.S.A. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to regional O3 production (e.g., U.S. anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the ten highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), U.S. anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5–11 ppb and by less than 2 ppb in the eastern versus western U.S.A. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1–7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2 ppb higher on average vs. on O3_top10obs_JJA days. In the model, regional sources of O3 precursor emissions drive interannual variability in the highest observed O3 levels. During the summers of 2004–2012, monthly regional mean U.S. background O3 MDA8 levels vary by 10–20 ppb. Simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3 ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004–2006 to 2010–2012 in both the observations and the model, reflecting rising U.S. background (+2 ppb) and declining U.S. anthropogenic O3 emissions (−6 ppb). The model attributes interannual variability in U.S. background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a three-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3.

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Boundary layer evolution over the central Himalayas from radio wind profiler and model simulations

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-16-10559-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (16) ◽

pp. 10559-10572 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Narendra Singh ◽

Raman Solanki ◽

Narendra Ojha ◽

Ruud H. H. Janssen ◽

Andrea Pozzer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Boundary Layer ◽

Mixed Layer ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Ground Level ◽

Wind Profiler ◽

Pollution Transport ◽

Local Boundary ◽

The Mean

Abstract. We investigate the time evolution of the Local Boundary Layer (LBL) for the first time over a mountain ridge at Nainital (79.5° E, 29.4° N, 1958 m a.m.s.l.) in the central Himalayan region, using a radar wind profiler (RWP) during November 2011 to March 2012, as a part of the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX). We restrict our analysis to clear–sunny days, resulting in a total of 78 days of observations. The standard criterion of the peak in the signal-to-noise ratio (S ∕ N) profile was found to be inadequate in the characterization of mixed layer (ML) top at this site. Therefore, we implemented a criterion of S ∕ N > 6 dB for the characterization of the ML and the resulting estimations are shown to be in agreement with radiosonde measurements over this site. The daytime average (05:00–10:00 UTC) observed boundary layer height ranges from 440 ± 197 m in November (late autumn) to 766 ± 317 m above ground level (a.g.l.) in March (early spring). The observations revealed a pronounced impact of mountain topography on the LBL dynamics during March, when strong winds (> 5.6 m s−1) lead to LBL heights of 650 m during nighttime. The measurements are further utilized to evaluate simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF simulations captured the day-to-day variations up to an extent (r2 = 0.5), as well as the mean diurnal variations (within 1σ variability). The mean biases in the daytime average LBL height vary from −7 % (January) to +30 % (February) between model and observations, except during March (+76 %). Sensitivity simulations using a mixed layer model (MXL/MESSy) indicated that the springtime overestimation of LBL would lead to a minor uncertainty in simulated surface ozone concentrations. However, it would lead to a significant overestimation of the dilution of black carbon aerosols at this site. Our work fills a gap in observations of local boundary layer over this complex terrain in the Himalayas, and highlights the need for year-long simultaneous measurements of boundary layer dynamics and air quality to better understand the role of lower tropospheric dynamics in pollution transport.

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The relative importance of various source regions on East Asian surface ozone

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-10-9077-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 9077-9120 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

T. Nagashima ◽

T. Ohara ◽

K. Sudo ◽

H. Akimoto

Keyword(s):

East Asia ◽

Korean Peninsula ◽

Transport Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

East Asian ◽

Large Contribution ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

Source Regions ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. The Source-Receptor (S-R) relationship for surface O3 in East Asia is estimated for recent years in this study utilizing the tagged tracer method with a global chemical transport model. The estimation shows the importance of intra-continental transport of O3 inside East Asia as well as the transport of O3 from distant source regions. The model well simulated the absolute concentration and seasonal variation of surface O3 in the East Asian region, and demonstrated significant seasonal difference in the origin of surface O3. More than half of surface O3 is attributable to the O3 transported from distant sources outside of East Asia in the cold season (October to March). In the warm season (April to September), most of the surface O3 is attributed to O3 created within East Asia in most areas of East Asia. The contribution of domestically-created O3 accounts for 20% of surface O3 in Japan and the Korean Peninsula, 40% in North China Plain and around 50% in the southern part of China in spring, which increase greatly in summer. The contribution of China and the Korean Peninsula to Japan are estimated at about 10% and 5%, respectively. A large contribution (20%) of China to the Korean Peninsula is also demonstrated. In the northern and southern part of China, large contribution of over 10% from East Siberia and the Indochina Peninsula are identified, respectively. The contribution of intercontinental transport increases with latitude; it is 21% in Northeast China and 13% in Japan and the Korean Peninsula in spring. As for one-hourly mean surface O3, domestically-created O3 is the main contributor in most areas of East Asia, except for the low O3 class (<30 ppbv), and accounts for more than 50% in very high O3 class (>90 ppbv). The mean relative contribution of China to central Japan was about 10% in every class, but that from the Korean Peninsula is important in all expect the low O3 class. Substantial impact of foreign sources on the exceedance of Japan's AAQS is identified in the high O3 class (60–90 ppbv) in spring.

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Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990–2013

10.5194/acp-2017-338 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Camilla Andersson ◽

Heléne Alpfjord ◽

Lennart Robertson ◽

Per Erik Karlsson ◽

Magnuz Engardt

Keyword(s):

Transport Model ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Vegetation Indices ◽

High Sensitivity ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Data Sets ◽

Chemistry Transport Model ◽

Near Surface ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990–2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using data assimilation. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance than the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyzes we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations in order to avoid introducing artificial trends. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the near-surface O3 concentration, focusing on the linear trend over the 24 year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is mirrored by observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the chemistry-transport model we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three processes: change in hemispheric background, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions (Swedish and other European). The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three processes, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the relative impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modelled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilised emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

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The influence of mid-latitude cyclones on European background surface ozone

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-17-12421-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (20) ◽

pp. 12421-12447 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

K. Emma Knowland ◽

Ruth M. Doherty ◽

Kevin I. Hodges ◽

Lesley E. Ott

Keyword(s):

Direct Injection ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Storm Track ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Data Sets ◽

Transport Pathways ◽

Background Ozone ◽

European Station ◽

The Relationship ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. The relationship between springtime mid-latitude cyclones and background ozone (O3) is explored using a combination of observational and reanalysis data sets. First, the relationship between surface O3 observations at two rural monitoring sites on the west coast of Europe – Mace Head, Ireland, and Monte Velho, Portugal – and cyclone track frequency in the surrounding regions is examined. Second, detailed case study examination of four individual mid-latitude cyclones and the influence of the associated frontal passage on surface O3 is performed. Cyclone tracks have a greater influence on the O3 measurements at the more northern coastal European station, Mace Head, located within the main North Atlantic (NA) storm track. In particular, when cyclones track north of 53° N, there is a significant relationship with high levels of surface O3 (> 75th percentile). The further away a cyclone is from the NA storm track, the more likely it will be associated with both high and low (< 25th percentile) levels of O3 at the observation site during the cyclone's life cycle. The results of the four case studies demonstrate (a) the importance of the passage of a cyclone's cold front in relation to surface O3 measurements, (b) the ability of mid-latitude cyclones to bring down high levels of O3 from the stratosphere, and (c) that accompanying surface high-pressure systems and their associated transport pathways play an important role in the temporal variability of surface O3. The main source of high O3 to these two sites in springtime is from the stratosphere, either from direct injection into the cyclone or associated with aged airstreams from decaying downstream cyclones that can become entrained and descend toward the surface within new cyclones over the NA region.

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The relative importance of various source regions on East Asian surface ozone

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-11305-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (22) ◽

pp. 11305-11322 ◽

Cited By ~ 56

Author(s):

T. Nagashima ◽

T. Ohara ◽

K. Sudo ◽

H. Akimoto

Keyword(s):

East Asia ◽

Korean Peninsula ◽

Transport Model ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Large Contribution ◽

Chemical Production ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

Source Regions ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We estimated the source-receptor relationship for surface O3 in East Asia during the early 2000s using a method that tags O3 tracers according to their region of chemical production (tagged tracer method) with a global chemical transport model. The estimation demonstrated the importance of intracontinental transport of O3 inside East Asia as well as of the transport of O3 from distant source regions. The model well simulated the absolute concentration and seasonal variation of surface O3 in East Asia and demonstrated significant seasonal differences in the origin of surface O3. In the cold season (October to March), more than half of surface O3 in East Asia is attributable to the O3 transported from distant sources outside of East Asia. In the warm season (April to September), most of the surface O3 is attributable to O3 created within East Asia in most areas of East Asia. In spring the contribution of domestically created O3 accounted for 20% of the surface O3 in Japan and the Korean Peninsula, 40% in the North China Plain, and around 50% in the southern part of China, and the domestic contribution increased greatly in summer. The contributions of O3 created in China and the Korean Peninsula to O3 in Japan were estimated at about 10% and 5%, respectively. We also demonstrated a large contribution (20%) from China to the Korean Peninsula. In the northern and southern parts of China, large contributions of over 10% from East Siberia and the Indochina Peninsula, respectively, were identified. The contribution from intercontinental transport increased with latitude; it was 21% in Northeast China and 13% in Japan and the Korean Peninsula in spring. As for the hourly mean of surface O3, domestically created O3 was the main contributor in most areas of East Asia, except for the low O3 class (<30 ppbv), and accounted for more than 50% in the very high O3 class (>90 ppbv). The mean relative contribution of O3 created in China to O3 in central Japan was about 10% in every class, but that created in the Korean Peninsula was significant in all except the low O3 class. We identified the substantial impact of foreign sources on Japan's ambient air quality standard in the high O3 class (60–90 ppbv) in spring.

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Scorched Earth: how will changes in the strength of the vegetation sink to ozone deposition affect human health and ecosystems?

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-13-6741-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 6741-6755 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

L. D. Emberson ◽

N. Kitwiroon ◽

S. Beevers ◽

P. Büker ◽

S. Cinderby

Keyword(s):

Human Health ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Dry Deposition ◽

Ground Level ◽

Wave Type ◽

Drought Period ◽

Ecosystem Risk ◽

Rural Sites ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006, (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m−3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to a reduction in the impact of O3 on vegetation across the UK. The new CMAQ-DO3SE model was evaluated by comparing observation vs. modelled estimates of various health related metrics with data from both urban and rural sites across the UK; although these comparisons showed reasonable agreement there were some biases in the model predictions with attributable deaths at urban sites being over predicted by a small margin, the converse was true for rural sites. The study emphasises the importance of accurate estimates of O3 deposition both for human health and ecosystem risk assessments. Extended periods of drought and heat wave type conditions are likely to occur with more frequency in coming decades, therefore understanding the importance of these effects will be crucial to inform the development of appropriate national and international policy to mitigate against the worst consequences of this air pollutant.

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