scholarly journals A global model study of ozone enhancement during the August 2003 heat wave in Europe

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 285 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Guerova ◽  
N. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Reactive Pollutant ◽  
Surface O3

Environmental context. During the 2003 European summer, record high temperatures were measured and some regions experienced 14 consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 35°C, thus triggering a heat wave. The prolonged heat and strong insolation facilitated the build up of exceptionally long-lasting and spatially extensive episodes of high ozone concentrations close to the surface. Ozone is a very reactive pollutant with known effects on both human and vegetation health. It is important to build robust models that can predict its concentration in a similar manner to which weather prediction models operate. Abstract. The European summer of 2003 was characterised by intense heat, prolonged isolation and suppressed ventilation of the boundary layer which, combined with large anthropogenic emissions and strong fires, resulted in a build up of an unprecedentedly high and long-lasting photochemical smog over large parts of the continent. In this work, a global chemistry and transport model GEOS-Chem is compared with surface O3 concentrations observed in 2003 in order to examine the extent to which the model is capable of reproducing such an extreme event. The GEOS-Chem reproduces the temporal variation of O3 at the Jungfraujoch mountain site, Switzerland, including the enhanced concentrations associated with the August 2003 heat wave (r = 0.84). The spatial distribution of the enhanced surface O3 over Spain, France, Germany and Italy is also captured to some extent (r = 0.63), although the largest concentrations appear to be located over the Italian Peninsula in the model rather than over Central Europe as suggested by the surface O3 observations. In general, the observed differences between the European averaged O3 concentrations in the summer of 2003 to those in 2004 are larger in the observations than in the model, as the model reproduces relatively well the enhanced levels in 2003 but overestimates those observed in 2004. Preliminary contributions of various sources to the O3 surface concentrations over Europe during the heat wave indicate that anthropogenic emissions from Europe contribute the most to the O3 build up near the surface (40 to 50%, i.e. 30 ppb). The contribution from anthropogenic emissions from the other major source regions of the northern hemisphere, in particular North America, tends to be smaller than those of other years. The model indicates that the large fires that occurred in that year contributed up to 5% (3 ppb) to surface O3 in close proximity to the fire regions and less elsewhere in Europe. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by grass and forest areas contributed up to 10% (5–6 ppb) of surface O3 over France, Germany and northern Italy, which represents a contribution that is twice as large than that found in 2004. These results in terms of contributions from various sources, particularly biogenic emissions, should be seen as preliminary, as the response of vegetation to such extreme events may not be well represented in the model.

scholarly journals Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat wave in the UK

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 19509-19544 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Vieno ◽  
A. J. Dore ◽  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
R. Doherty ◽  
M. R. Heal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. A high resolution (5×5 km2) UK-scale chemistry-transport model (EMEP4UK) is used to study ground-level ozone (O3) during the August 2003 heat-wave. Meteorology is generated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, nudged every six hours with reanalysis data. We focus on SE England, where hourly average O3 reached up to 140 ppb during the heat-wave. EMEP4UK accurately reproduces observed annual and diurnal cycles of surface O3 at urban and rural sites. Elevated O3 and much of its day-to-day variability during the heat-wave are well captured. Key O3 precursors, nitrogen dioxide and isoprene (C5H8), are less well simulated, but show generally accurate diurnal cycles and concentrations to within a factor of ~2–3 of observations. The modelled surface O3 distribution has an intricate spatio-temporal structure, governed by a combination of meteorology, emissions and photochemistry. A series of sensitivity runs with the model are used to explore the factors that influenced O3 levels during the heat-wave. Various factors appear to be important on different days and at different sites. Ozone imported from outside the model domain, especially the south, is very important on several days during the heat-wave, contributing up to 85 ppb. Dry deposition of O3, when completely switched off, elevated simulated O3 by up to 50 ppb, and this may have been an important factor on several days. Modelled C5H8 concentrations are generally best simulated if C5H8 emissions are changed from the base emissions: typically doubled, but elevated by up to a factor of five on some days. Accurately modelling the exact positions of individual plumes of anthropogenically emitted nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds is crucial for the successful simulation of O3 at a particular time and location. Variations in surface temperature of ±5 K were found to have impacts on O3 of typically less than ±10 ppb.

scholarly journals Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990–2013

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Heléne Alpfjord ◽  
Lennart Robertson ◽  
Per Erik Karlsson ◽  
Magnuz Engardt
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990–2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using data assimilation. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance than the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyzes we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations in order to avoid introducing artificial trends. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the near-surface O3 concentration, focusing on the linear trend over the 24 year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is mirrored by observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the chemistry-transport model we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three processes: change in hemispheric background, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions (Swedish and other European). The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three processes, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the relative impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modelled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilised emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

scholarly journals Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 13869-13890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Heléne Alpfjord ◽  
Lennart Robertson ◽  
Per Erik Karlsson ◽  
Magnuz Engardt
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990–2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using retrospective variational data analysis. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance over the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyses, we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the distribution of the near-surface O3 concentrations, focusing on the linear trend over the 24-year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is reflected in observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the CTM we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three factors: change in hemispheric background concentrations, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three factors, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by European O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modeled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

scholarly journals Average versus high surface ozone levels over the continental U.S.A.: Model bias, background influences, and interannual variability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean J. Guo ◽  
Arlene M. Fiore ◽  
Lee T. Murray ◽  
Daniel A. Jaffe ◽  
Jordan L. Schnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Pollution Transport ◽  
Natural Sources ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Regional Sources ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. U.S. background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the U.S.A., from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry-transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background versus U.S. anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over ten continental U.S. regions from 2004–2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0–19 ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern U.S.A. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to regional O3 production (e.g., U.S. anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the ten highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), U.S. anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5–11 ppb and by less than 2 ppb in the eastern versus western U.S.A. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1–7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2 ppb higher on average vs. on O3_top10obs_JJA days. In the model, regional sources of O3 precursor emissions drive interannual variability in the highest observed O3 levels. During the summers of 2004–2012, monthly regional mean U.S. background O3 MDA8 levels vary by 10–20 ppb. Simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3 ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004–2006 to 2010–2012 in both the observations and the model, reflecting rising U.S. background (+2 ppb) and declining U.S. anthropogenic O3 emissions (−6 ppb). The model attributes interannual variability in U.S. background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a three-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3.

scholarly journals Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenç, Mallorca (Spain)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2597-2617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
Arnau Amengual ◽  
Celso Garcia ◽  
Enrique Morán-Tejeda ◽  
Víctor Homar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Management Service ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Hydraulic Simulation

Abstract. An extraordinary convective rainfall event, unforeseen by most numerical weather prediction models, generated a devastating flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the town of Sant Llorenç des Cardassar, Mallorca, on 9 October 2018. Four people died inside this village, while casualties were up to 13 over the entire affected area. This extreme event has been reconstructed by implementing an integrated flash flood modelling approach in the Ses Planes catchment up to Sant Llorenç (23.4 km2), based on three components: (i) generation of radar-derived precipitation estimates, (ii) modelling of accurate discharge hydrographs yielded by the catchment (using FEST and KLEM models), and (iii) hydraulic simulation of the event and mapping of affected areas (using HEC-RAS). Radar-derived rainfall estimates show very high agreement with rain gauge data (R2=0.98). Modelled flooding extent is in close agreement with the observed extension by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, based on Sentinel-1 imagery, and both far exceed the extension for a 500-year return period flood. Hydraulic simulation revealed that water reached a depth of 3 m at some points, and modelled water depths highly correlate (R2=0.91) with in situ after-event measurements. The 9 October flash flood eroded and transported woody and abundant sediment debris, changing channel geomorphology. Water velocity greatly increased at bridge locations crossing the river channel, especially at those closer to the Sant Llorenç town centre. This study highlights how the very low predictability of this type of extreme convective rainfall events and the very short hydrological response times typical of small Mediterranean catchments continue to challenge the implementation of early warning systems, which effectively reduce people's exposure to flash flood risk in the region.

scholarly journals Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat-wave in the UK

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 7963-7978 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Vieno ◽  
A. J. Dore ◽  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
R. Doherty ◽  
M. R. Heal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. The EMEP4UK modelling system is a high resolution (5×5 km2) application of the EMEP chemistry-transport model, designed for scientific and policy studies in the UK. We demonstrate the use and performance of the EMEP4UK system through the study of ground-level ozone (O3) during the extreme August 2003 heat-wave. Meteorology is generated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, nudged every six hours with reanalysis data. We focus on SE England, where hourly average O3 reached up to 140 ppb during the heat-wave. EMEP4UK accurately reproduces elevated O3 and much of its day-to-day variability during the heat-wave. Key O3 precursors, nitrogen dioxide and isoprene, are less well simulated, but show generally accurate diurnal cycles and concentrations to within a factor of ~2–3 of observations. The modelled surface O3 distribution has an intricate spatio-temporal structure, governed by a combination of meteorology, emissions and photochemistry. A series of sensitivity runs with the model are used to explore the factors that influenced O3 levels during the heat-wave. Various factors appear to be important on different days and at different sites. Ozone imported from outside the model domain, especially the south, is very important on several days during the heat-wave, contributing up to 85 ppb. The effect of dry deposition is also important on several days. Modelled isoprene concentrations are generally best simulated if isoprene emissions are changed from the base emissions: typically doubled, but elevated by up to a factor of five on one hot day. We found that accurate modelling of the exact positions of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound plumes is crucial for the successful simulation of O3 at a particular time and location. Variations in temperature of ±5 K were found to have impacts on O3 of typically less than ±10 ppb.

scholarly journals Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier ◽  
Hilde Fagerli ◽  
Michael Gauss ◽  
David Simpson ◽  
Sumit Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Gangetic Plain

Abstract. Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r =  0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r =  0.5 and r =  0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed.The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O3 and PM2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67 % on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust.

scholarly journals Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 4005-4030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Marti ◽  
Arnau Folch ◽  
Oriol Jorba ◽  
Zavisa Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mount Etna ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Tephra Dispersal ◽  
Coupling Strategy ◽  
Simulation And Evaluation ◽  
Ash Cloud

Abstract. Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.

scholarly journals Seasonal and spatial variability of surface ozone over China: contributions from background and domestic pollution

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3511-3525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
J. Hao ◽  
M. Luo
Keyword(s):  
Yangtze River ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Spatial Gradient ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Background Ozone ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. Both observations and a 3-D chemical transport model suggest that surface ozone over populated eastern China features a summertime trough and that the month when surface ozone peaks differs by latitude and region. Source-receptor analysis is used to quantify the contributions of background ozone and Chinese anthropogenic emissions on this variability. Annual mean background ozone over China shows a spatial gradient from 55 ppbv in the northwest to 20 ppbv in the southeast, corresponding with changes in topography and ozone lifetime. Pollution background ozone (annual mean of 12.6 ppbv) shows a minimum in the summer and maximum in the spring. On the monthly-mean basis, Chinese pollution ozone (CPO) has a peak of 20–25 ppbv in June north of the Yangtze River and in October south of it, which explains the peaks of surface ozone in these months. The summertime trough in surface ozone over eastern China can be explained by the decrease of background ozone from spring to summer (by −15 ppbv regionally averaged over eastern China). Tagged simulations suggest that long-range transport of ozone from northern mid-latitude continents (including Europe and North America) reaches a minimum in the summer, whereas ozone from Southeast Asia exhibits a maximum in the summer over eastern China. This contrast in seasonality provides clear evidence that the seasonal switch in monsoonal wind patterns plays a significant role in determining the seasonality of background ozone over China.

scholarly journals The drivers and health risks of the unexpected surface ozone enhancements over the Sichuan basin, China in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youwen Sun ◽  
Hao Yin ◽  
Xiao Lu ◽  
Justus Notholt ◽  
Mathias Palm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Sichuan Basin ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Machine Learning Method ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
The Sichuan Basin ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. After a continuous increase in surface ozone (O3) level from 2013 to 2019, the overall summertime O3 concentration across China showed a significant reduction in 2020. In contrast to this overall reduction in surface O3 across China, unexpected surface O3 enhancements of 10.2 ± 0.8 ppbv (23.4 %) were observed in May–June 2020 vs. 2019 over the Sichuan basin (SCB), China. In this study, we use high resolution nested-grid GEOS-Chem simulation, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method and the exposure−response relationship to determine the drivers and evaluate the health risks of the unexpected surface O3 enhancements. We first use the XGBoost machine learning method to correct the GEOS-Chem model-to-measurement O3 discrepancy over the SCB. The relative contributions of meteorology and anthropogenic emissions changes to the unexpected surface O3 enhancements are then quantified with the combination of GEOS-Chem and XGBoost models. In order to assess the health risks caused by the unexpected O3 enhancements over the SCB, total premature death mortalities are estimated. The results show that changes in anthropogenic emissions caused 0.9 ± 0.1 ppbv of O3 reduction and changes in meteorology caused 11.1 ± 0.7 ppbv of O3 increase in May–June 2020 vs. 2019. The meteorology-induced surface O3 increase is mainly attributed to significant increases in temperature and downward potential vorticity, and decreases in precipitation, specific humidity and cloud fractions over the SCB and surrounding regions in May–June 2020 vs. 2019. These changes in meteorology combined with the complex basin effect enhance downward transport of O3 from upper troposphere, enhance biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), speed up O3 chemical production, and inhabit the ventilation of O3 and its precursors, and therefore account for the surface O3 enhancements over the SCB. The total premature mortality due to the unexpected surface O3 enhancements over the SCB has increased by 89.8 % in May–June 2020 vs. 2019.

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