scholarly journals Changes in high-intensity precipitation on the northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1547-1564
Author(s):  
Stefano Segadelli ◽  
Federico Grazzini ◽  
Veronica Rossi ◽  
Margherita Aguzzi ◽  
Silvia Marvelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Peat Bog ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Several record-breaking precipitation events have struck the mountainous area of the Emilia–Romagna region (northern Apennines, Italy) over the last 10 years. As a consequence, severe geomorphological processes such as debris avalanches and debris flows, shallow landslides, and overbank flooding have affected the territory, causing severe damage to human-made structures. The unusual intensity of these phenomena prompted an investigation into their frequency in the past, beyond instrumental time. In the quest for an understanding of whether these phenomena are unprecedented in the region, peat bog and lake deposits were analyzed to infer the frequency of extreme precipitation events that may have occurred in the past. We present the results of a dedicated field campaign performed in summer 2017 at Lake Moo in the northern Apennines, a 0.15 km2 peat bog located at an altitude of 1130 m a.s.l. During the extreme precipitation event of 13–14 September 2015, several debris flows generated by small streams affected the Lake Moo plain. In such a small drainage basin (<2 km2), high-density floods can be triggered only by high-intensity precipitation events. The sedimentary succession (ca. 13 m thick) was studied through the drilling of two cores and one trench. The sequence, characterized by clusters of coarse-grained alluvial deposits interbedded with organic-rich silty clays and peat layers, was analyzed by combining sedimentological, pollen, microanthracological and pedological data with radiocarbon dating (AMS 14C) in an innovative multidisciplinary approach for this area. Original data acquired during the field campaign were also correlated with other specific paleoclimatic proxies available in the literature for the northern Apennines area. We discover that the increase in extreme paleoflooding, associated with coarse-grained deposits similar to the ones observed recently, correlates well with the warm phases of the Holocene Thermal Maximum and with the ongoing warming trend observed that started at the beginning of the last century.

scholarly journals Changes in high intensity precipitation on the Northern Apennines (Italy) as revealed by multidisciplinary data over the last 9000 years

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Segadelli ◽  
Federico Grazzini ◽  
Margherita Aguzzi ◽  
Alessandro Chelli ◽  
Veronica Rossi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Peat Bog ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Stream Channels ◽  
The Past ◽  
Multidisciplinary Data ◽  
Emilia Romagna Region ◽  
Basin Area ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Several record-breaking precipitation events have stricken the mountainous area of Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Apennines, Italy) over the last years. As consequence, several geomorphological processes, like widespread debris flows along the slopes and hyperconcentrated flood in the stream channels, shallow landslides and overbank flooding affected the territory, causing serious damages to man-made structures. The intensity and wide spatial scale of these phenomena leads us to investigate their frequency in the past, beyond the instrumental time. A detailed study of these recent deposits compared with fossil peat bog and lake paleodeposits can provide useful insight to support a strong match between precipitation intensity and warm climatic phases in antecedent climatic periods, as expected by the increase air water vapour holding capacity at higher temperatures. Here we present the results of the field campaign performed in summer 2017 at Lake Moo a 0.15 km2 peat bog located at an altitude of 1130 m a.s.l. The chosen area has been affected, during the flooding of the upper Trebbia and Nure valleys 13–14 September 2015, by several high-density flows generated by the stream that flow into the plain. Our main assumption is that, in such a small drainage basin (area

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

Extreme precipitation events during the South Asian summer monsoon season in the past century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renaud Falga ◽  
Chien Wang
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Past Century ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

&lt;p&gt;The South Asian monsoon system impacts the livelihoods of over a billion people. While the overall monsoon rainfall is believed to have decreased during the 20&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; century, there is a good agreement that the extreme precipitation events have been rising in some parts of India. As an important part of the Indian population is dependent on rainfed agriculture, such a rise in extremes, along with resulting flood events, can be all the more problematic. Although studies tend to link this rise in extreme events with anthropogenic forcing, some uncertainties remain on the exact causes. In order to examine the correlation between anthropogenic forcings and the different trends in extreme events, we have analyzed the high-resolution daily rainfall data in the past century delivered by the Indian Meteorological Department alongside several other economic and ecological estimates. The results from this analysis will be presented in detail.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Predicting Extreme-Precipitation Effects on the Geomorphology of Small Mountain Catchments: Towards an Improved Understanding of the Consequences for Freshwater Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Segadelli ◽  
Federico Grazzini ◽  
Michele Adorni ◽  
Maria Teresa De Nardo ◽  
Anna Fornasiero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Stream Channels ◽  
Freshwater Biodiversity ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Events

In 2015 an intense rainfall event hit the Valleys of the Trebbia, Nure, and Aveto watercourses in the Northern Apennines. In about 6 h a mesoscale convective system deployed a stunning amount of precipitation of 340 mm, with an extreme hourly rainfall intensity of >100 mm/h. It triggered debris flows along slopes and stream channels, landslides and floods, which caused serious damages. Through the optimal combination of rainfall data and radar volumes, in this work we present a detailed rainfall analysis, which will serve as a basis to create a quantitative correlation with debris flows over elementary hydrological units. We aim at providing an objective basis for future predictions, starting from the recognition of the forcing meteorological events, and then arriving at the prediction of triggering phenomena and to the debris-flow type. We further provide seven observations/case studies on the effects of extreme-precipitation events on freshwater environments in small mountain catchments. Extreme-precipitation events are becoming more frequent and widespread globally but their ecological effects are still insufficiently understood. In general, the effects of extreme events on inland-waters’ ecosystems are highly context-dependent, ranging from deleterious to beneficial. We therefore highlight the necessity of further studies to characterize these effects in more depth to be able to include appropriate mitigation measures in environmental planning and stewardship.

Evaluating the skill of satellite data on the individuation of extreme precipitation events in Calabria (southern Italy)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Roberto Coscarelli ◽  
Giulio Nils Caroletti
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

&lt;p&gt;In this study, the skill of TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data to locate spatially and temporally extreme precipitation has been tested over Calabria, a region in southern Italy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Calabria is a very challenging region for hydrometeorology studies, as i) it is a mainly mountainous region with complex orography; ii) it is surrounded by sea, providing&amp;#160; an abundance of available moisture; iii) it belongs to the Mediterranean region, a hot-spot for climate change.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TMPA, which provides daily data at a 0.25&amp;#176; resolution (i.e., about 25 km at southern Italy latitudes), was tested with regards to three extreme precipitation events that occurred between 1998 and 2019, i.e., the years of TMPA&amp;#8217;s operational time frame. The first event, taking place on 07-12/09/2000, lasted for several days and involved most of Calabria. The second (01-04/07/2006) was a very localized midsummer event, which hit a very small area with destructive consequences. Finally, the 18-27/11/2013 event was a ten-day long heavy precipitation event that hit the region in spots.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TMPA daily data were compared against validated and homogenized rain gauge data from 79 stations managed by the Multi-Risk Functional Centre of the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection. TMPA was evaluated both in relative and absolute terms: i) the relative skill was tested by checking if TMPA evaluated correctly the presence of extreme precipitation, defined as daily precipitation passing the 99th percentile threshold; ii) the absolute skill was tested by checking if TMPA reproduced correctly the cumulated precipitation values during the events.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TMPA proved sufficiently able to locate areas subject to heavy cumulated precipitation during large spatially distributed events over the region. However, it showed difficulties in reproducing very localized events, as the 2006 case study was not detected at all, showing that 25-km spatial resolution and daily time resolution proved inadequate to resolve this type of rainfall event.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Results might give insights into the possibility of using satellite data for real-time monitoring of extreme precipitation, especially since the transition from the old TMPA to the new Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) set was completed in January 2020.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Acknowledgments:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Project INDECIS is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Tuel ◽  
Bettina Schaefli ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Olivia Martius
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Event ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
High Discharge ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. River discharge is impacted by the sub-seasonal (weekly to monthly) temporal structure of precipitation. One example is the successive occurrence of extreme precipitation events over sub-seasonal timescales, referred to as temporal clustering. Its potential effects on discharge have received little attention. Here, we address this question by analysing discharge observations following extreme precipitation events either clustered in time or occurring in isolation. We rely on two sets of precipitation and discharge data, one centered on Switzerland and the other over Europe. We identify "clustered" extreme precipitation events based on the previous occurrence of another extreme precipitation within a given time window. We find that clustered events are generally followed by a more prolonged discharge response with a larger amplitude. The probability of exceeding the 95th discharge percentile in the five days following an extreme precipitation event is in particular up to twice as high for situations where another extreme precipitation event occurred in the preceding week compared to isolated extreme precipitation events. The influence of temporal clustering decreases as the clustering window increases; beyond 6–8 weeks the difference with non-clustered events is negligible. Catchment area, streamflow regime and precipitation magnitude also modulate the response. The impact of clustering is generally smaller in snow-dominated and large catchments. Additionally, particularly persistent periods of high discharge tend to occur in conjunction with temporal clusters of precipitation extremes.

scholarly journals The Extreme Precipitation Index (EPI): A Coupled Dynamic–Thermodynamic Metric to Diagnose Midlatitude Floods Associated with Flow Reversal

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1257-1276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn M. Milrad ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah ◽  
John R. Gyakum ◽  
Rachael N. Isphording ◽  
Jonathon Klepatzki
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Flow Reversal ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Day Range ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The extreme precipitation index (EPI) is a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic metric that can diagnose extreme precipitation events associated with flow reversal in the mid- to upper troposphere (e.g., Rex and omega blocks, cutoff cyclones, Rossby wave breaks). Recent billion dollar (U.S. dollars) floods across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes were associated with flow reversal, as long-duration ascent (dynamics) occurred in the presence of anomalously warm and moist air (thermodynamics). The EPI can detect this potent combination of ingredients and offers advantages over model precipitation forecasts because it relies on mass fields instead of parameterizations. The EPI’s dynamics component incorporates modified versions of two accepted blocking criteria, designed to detect flow reversal during the relatively short duration of extreme precipitation events. The thermodynamic component utilizes standardized anomalies of equivalent potential temperature. Proof-of-concept is demonstrated using four high-impact floods: the 2013 Alberta Flood, Canada’s second costliest natural disaster on record; the 2016 western Europe Flood, which caused the worst flooding in France in a century; the 2000 southern Alpine event responsible for major flooding in Switzerland; and the catastrophic August 2016 Louisiana Flood. EPI frequency maxima are located across the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid- and high latitudes, including near the climatological subtropical jet stream, while secondary maxima are located near the Rockies and Alps. EPI accuracy is briefly assessed using pattern correlation and qualitative associations with an extreme precipitation event climatology. Results show that the EPI may provide potential benefits to flood forecasters, particularly in the 3–10-day range.

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