scholarly journals Ice-driven CO<sub>2</sub> feedback on ice volume

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. F. Ruddiman
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Origin ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Schematic Model ◽  
Co2 Response ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
Northern Summer ◽  
Insolation Forcing

Abstract. The origin of the major ice-sheet variations during the last 2.7 million years is a long-standing mystery. Neither the dominant 41 000-year cycles in δ18O/ice-volume during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene nor the late-Pleistocene oscillations near 100 000 years is a linear ("Milankovitch") response to summer insolation forcing. Both responses must result from non-linear behavior within the climate system. Greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) are a plausible source of the required non-linearity, but confusion has persisted over whether the gases force ice volume or are a positive feedback. During the last several hundred thousand years, CO2 and ice volume (marine δ18O) have varied in phase at the 41 000-year obliquity cycle and nearly in phase within the ~100 000-year band. This timing rules out greenhouse-gas forcing of a very slow ice response and instead favors ice control of a fast CO2 response. In the schematic model proposed here, ice sheets responded linearly to insolation forcing at the precession and obliquity cycles prior to 0.9 million years ago, but CO2 feedback amplified the ice response at the 41 000-year period by a factor of approximately two. After 0.9 million years ago, with slow polar cooling, ablation weakened. CO2 feedback continued to amplify ice-sheet growth every 41 000 years, but weaker ablation permitted some ice to survive insolation maxima of low intensity. Step-wise growth of these longer-lived ice sheets continued until peaks in northern summer insolation produced abrupt deglaciations every ~85 000 to ~115 000 years. Most of the deglacial ice melting resulted from the same CO2/temperature feedback that had built the ice sheets. Several processes have the northern geographic origin, as well as the requisite orbital tempo and phasing, to be candidate mechanisms for ice-sheet control of CO2 and their own feedback.

scholarly journals Ice-driven CO<sub>2</sub> feedback on ice volume

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. F. Ruddiman
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Origin ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Schematic Model ◽  
Co2 Response ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
Northern Summer ◽  
Linear Behavior

Abstract. The origin of the major ice-sheet variations during the last 2.7 million years remains a mystery. Neither the dominant 41 000-year cycles in δ18O and ice-volume during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene nor the late-Pleistocene variations near 100 000 years is a linear (''Milankovitch'') response to summer insolation forcing. Both result from non-linear behavior within the climate system. Greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) are a plausible source of this non-linearity, but confusion has persisted over whether the gases force ice volume or are a positive feedback. During the last several hundred thousand years, CO2 and ice volume (marine δ18O) have varied in phase both at the 41 000-year obliquity cycle and within the ~100 000-year eccentricity band. This timing argues against greenhouse-gas forcing of a slow ice response and instead favors ice control of a fast CO2 response. Because the effect of CO2 on temperature is logarithmic, the temperature/CO2 feedback on ice volume is also logarithmic. In the schematic model proposed here, ice sheets were forced by insolation changes at the precession and obliquity cycles prior to 0.9 million years ago and responded in a linear way, but CO2 feedback amplified (roughly doubled) the ice response at 41 000 years. After 0.9 million years ago, as polar climates continued to cool, ablation weakened. CO2 feedback continued to amplify ice-sheet growth at 41 000-year intervals, but weaker ablation permitted ice to survive subsequent insolation maxima of low intensity. These longer-lived ice sheets persisted until peaks in northern summer insolation paced abrupt deglaciations every 100 000±15 000 years. Most ice melting during deglaciations was achieved by the same CO2/temperature feedback that had built the ice sheets, but now acting in the opposite direction. Several processes have the northern geographic origin, as well as the requisite orbital tempo and phasing, to have been the mechanisms by which ice sheets controlled CO2 and drove their own feedback.

scholarly journals A new approach for simulating the paleo-evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2299-2314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén Banderas ◽  
Jorge Alvarez-Solas ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Marisa Montoya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Anomaly Field ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Index Approach ◽  
Millennial Scale

Abstract. Offline forcing methods for ice-sheet models often make use of an index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial–interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from the Greenland ice-core temperature reconstruction, with present-day climatologies. An important drawback of this approach is that it clearly misrepresents climate variability at millennial timescales. The reason for this is that the spatial glacial–interglacial anomaly field used is associated with orbital climatic variations, while it is scaled following the characteristic time evolution of the index, which includes orbital and millennial-scale climate variability. The spatial patterns of orbital and millennial variability are clearly not the same, as indicated by a wealth of models and data. As a result, this method can be expected to lead to a misrepresentation of climate variability and thus of the past evolution of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. Here we illustrate the problems derived from this approach and propose a new offline climate forcing method that attempts to better represent the characteristic pattern of millennial-scale climate variability by including an additional spatial anomaly field associated with this timescale. To this end, three different synthetic transient forcing climatologies are developed for the past 120 kyr following a perturbative approach and are applied to an ice-sheet model. The impact of the climatologies on the paleo-evolution of the NH ice sheets is evaluated. The first method follows the usual index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial–interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from ice-core data, with present-day climatologies. In the second approach the representation of millennial-scale climate variability is improved by incorporating a simulated stadial–interstadial anomaly field. The third is a refinement of the second one in which the amplitudes of both orbital and millennial-scale variations are tuned to provide perfect agreement with a recently published absolute temperature reconstruction over Greenland. The comparison of the three climate forcing methods highlights the tendency of the usual index approach to overestimate the temperature variability over North America and Eurasia at millennial timescales. This leads to a relatively high NH ice-volume variability on these timescales. Through enhanced ablation, this results in too low an ice volume throughout the last glacial period (LGP), below or at the lower end of the uncertainty range of estimations. Improving the representation of millennial-scale variability alone yields an important increase in ice volume in all NH ice sheets but especially in the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS). Optimizing the amplitude of the temperature anomalies to match the Greenland reconstruction results in a further increase in the simulated ice-sheet volume throughout the LGP. Our new method provides a more realistic representation of orbital and millennial-scale climate variability and improves the transient forcing of ice sheets during the LGP. Interestingly, our new approach underestimates ice-volume variations on millennial timescales as indicated by sea-level records. This suggests that either the origin of the latter is not the NH or that processes not represented in our study, notably variations in oceanic conditions, need to be invoked to explain millennial-scale ice-volume fluctuations. We finally provide here both our derived climate evolution of the LGP using the three methods as well as the resulting ice-sheet configurations. These could be of interest for future studies dealing with the atmospheric or/and oceanic consequences of transient ice-sheet evolution throughout the LGP and as a source of climate input to other ice-sheet models.

Enhanced humidity in SW Iberia driven by the combination of insolation and ice-sheet forcing during MIS 13 interglacial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dulce Oliveira ◽  
Stéphanie Desprat ◽  
Qiuzhen Yin ◽  
Teresa Rodrigues ◽  
Filipa Naughton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Evidence Model ◽  
First Time ◽  
Insolation Forcing

&lt;p&gt;Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13, ~500 ky ago, represents a Quaternary interglacial of primary interest due to the unexpected enhancement of monsoon systems under a cool climate characterised by low atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and larger ice volume than the present interglacial. Yet, key questions remain about its regional expression (intensity, climate variability, length) and underlying forcing factors. Here we examine the SW Iberian vegetation and terrestrial climate during MIS 13 directly compared with the sea surface temperatures using sediments from IODP Site U1385, and combine those terrestrial-marine profiles with climate-model experiments. We show for the first time that MIS 13 stands out for its large forest expansions with a reduced Mediterranean character alternating with muted forest contractions, indicating that this stage is marked by a cool-temperate climate regime with high levels of humidity. Results of our data-model approach reveal that that the dominant effect of MIS 13 insolation forcing on the regional vegetation and precipitation regime in SW Iberia is amplified by the relatively large extent of the ice-sheets in high northern latitudes. In qualitative agreement with the pollen-based evidence, model results show that ice-sheet forcing triggers an increase in the SW Iberian tree fraction along with both intensified winter and summer rainfall. We propose that the interactions between ice-sheets and major atmospheric circulation systems may have resulted in the persistent influence of the mid-latitude cells over the SW Iberian region, which led to intensified moisture availability and reduced seasonality, and, in turn, to a pronounced expansion of the temperate forest.&lt;/p&gt;

Bayesian analysis of sea-level sensitivity to CO2 forcing across the mid-Pleistocene transition: possible implications for early-Pleistocene ice-sheet extent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parker Liautaud ◽  
Peter Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Model Parameters

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Foregoing studies have found that sea-level transitioned to becoming approximately twice as sensitive to CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; radiative forcing between the early and late Pleistocene (Chalk et al., 2017; Dyez et al., 2018). In this study we analyze the relationships among sea-level, orbital variations, and CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; observations in a time-dependent, zonally-averaged energy balance model having a simple ice sheet. Probability distributions for model parameters are inferred using a hierarchical Bayesian method representing model and data uncertainties, including those arising from uncertain geological age models. We find that well-established nonlinearities in the climate system can explain sea-level becoming 2.5x (2.1x - 4.5x) more sensitive to radiative forcing between 2 and 0 Ma. Denial-of-mechanism experiments show that the increase in sensitivity is diminished by 36% (31% - 39%) if omitting geometric effects associated with thickening of a larger ice sheet, by 81% (73% - 92%) if omitting the ice-albedo feedback, and by more than 96% (93% - 98%) if omitting both. We also show that prescribing a fixed sea-level age model leads to different inferences of ice-sheet dimension, planetary albedo, and lags in the response to radiative forcing than if using a more complete approach in which sea-level ages are jointly inferred with model physics. Consistency of the model ice-sheet with geologic constraints on the southern terminus of the Laurentide ice sheet can be obtained by prescribing lower basal shear stress during the early Pleistocene, but such more-expansive ice sheets imply lower CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; levels than would an ice-sheet having the same aspect ratio as in the late Pleistocene, exacerbating disagreements with &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#120575;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;11&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;B-derived CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; estimates. These results raise a number of possibilities, including that (1) geologic evidence for expansive early-Pleistocene ice sheets represents only intermittent and spatially-limited ice-margin advances, (2) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#120575;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;11&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;B-derived CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; reconstructions are biased high, or (3) that another component of the global energy balance system, such as the average ice albedo or a process not included in our model, also changed through the middle Pleistocene. Future work will seek to better constrain early-Pleistocene CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; levels by way of a more complete incorporation of proxy uncertainties and biases into the Bayesian analysis.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 833-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Violaine Coulon ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Roderik van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
The Common

Abstract. Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.

scholarly journals The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1243-1257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennert B. Stap ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Lucas J. Lourens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Past ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (∼ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet–climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice–albedo feedback predominates the surface–height–temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> during the past 3.6 million years

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 361-377
Author(s):  
Constantijn J. Berends ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Understanding the evolution of, and the interactions between, ice sheets and the global climate over geological timescales is important for being able to project their future evolution. However, direct observational evidence of past CO2 concentrations, and the implied radiative forcing, only exists for the past 800 000 years. Records of benthic δ18O date back millions of years but contain signals from both land ice volume and ocean temperature. In recent years, inverse forward modelling has been developed as a method to disentangle these two signals, resulting in mutually consistent reconstructions of ice volume, temperature, and CO2. We use this approach to force a hybrid ice-sheet–climate model with a benthic δ18O stack, reconstructing the evolution of the ice sheets, global mean sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the late Pliocene and the Pleistocene, from 3.6 million years (Myr) ago to the present day. During the warmer-than-present climates of the late Pliocene, reconstructed CO2 varies widely, from 320–440 ppmv for warm periods to 235–250 ppmv for the early glacial excursion ∼3.3 million years ago. Sea level is relatively stable during this period, with maxima of 6–14 m and minima of 12–26 m during glacial episodes. Both CO2 and sea level are within the wide ranges of values covered by available proxy data for this period. Our results for the Pleistocene agree well with the ice-core CO2 record, as well as with different available sea-level proxy data. For the Early Pleistocene, 2.6–1.2 Myr ago, we simulate 40 kyr glacial cycles, with interglacial CO2 decreasing from 280–300 ppmv at the beginning of the Pleistocene to 250–280 ppmv just before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Peak glacial CO2 decreases from 220–250 to 205–225 ppmv during this period. After the MPT, when the glacial cycles change from 40 to 80 120 kyr cyclicity, the glacial–interglacial contrast increases, with interglacial CO2 varying between 250–320 ppmv and peak glacial values decreasing to 170–210 ppmv.

scholarly journals Influence of the choice of insolation forcing on the results of a conceptual glacial cycle model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaëlle Leloup ◽  
Didier Paillard
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Shift ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Insolation Forcing ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Over the Quaternary, the ice volume variations are “paced” by the astronomy. However, the precise way in which the astronomical parameters influence the glacial-interglacial cycles is not clear. The origin of the 100 kyr cycles over the last million year and of the switch from 40 kyr to 100 kyr cycles over the Mid Pleistocene Transition remain largely unexplained. By representing the climate system as oscillating between two states, glaciation and deglaciation, switching once a glaciation and a deglaciation thresholds are crossed, the main features of the ice volume record can be reproduced (Parrenin and Paillard, 2012). However, previous studies have only focused on the use of a single summer insolation as input. Here, we use a simple conceptual model to test and discuss the influence of the use of different summer insolation forcings, having different contributions from precession and obliquity, on the model results. We show that some features are robust. Specifically, to be able to reproduce the frequency shift over the Mid Pleistocene Transition, the deglaciation threshold needs to increase over time, independently of the summer insolation used as input. The quality of the model data agreement however depends on the chosen type of summer insolation and time period considered.

scholarly journals Pliocene glacial-interglacial sea-level change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Georgia Grant
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Isotope ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>The mid- to late Pliocene (3.3-2.6 Ma) spans one of the most significant climatic transitions of the Cenozoic. It is characterised by global cooling from a climate with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~400 ppm and temperatures of 2-3°C warmer-than-present, to one marked by the progressive expansion of ice sheets on northern hemisphere. Consequently, the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.3-3.0 Ma) provides the most accessible and recent geological analogue for global sea-level variability relevant to future warming. Global mean sea level has been estimated at 22 ± 10 m above present-day for MPWP. However, recent re-evaluations of this estimate suggest that spatially-varying visco-elastic responses of the crust, local gravitational changes and dynamic topography from mantle processes may preclude ever being able to reconstruct peak Pliocene mean sea level. The Whanganui Basin, New Zealand, contains a ~5 km thick stratigraphic succession of Pliocene-Pleistocene (last 5 Ma), shallow-marine, cyclical sedimentary sequences demonstrated to record orbitally-paced, glacial-interglacial global sea-level fluctuations. A limitation of the Whanganui sea level record, to date, has been an inability to resolve the full amplitude of glacial-interglacial water depth change due to the occurrence of cycle bounding unconformities representing sub-aerial erosion during glacial lowstands.  This thesis analyses a new ~900 m-thick, mid- (3.3-3.0 Ma) to late Pliocene (3.0-2.6 Ma), shallow-marine, cyclical sedimentary succession from a remote and relatively understudied part of Whanganui Basin. Unlike previous studies, these shelf sediments were continuously deposited, and were not eroded during sea-level lowstands, and thus provide the potential to reconstruct the full amplitude of glacial-interglacial sea-level change. On orbital timescales the influence of mantle dynamic processes is minimal. The approach taken applies lithofacies, sequence stratigraphy, and benthic foraminiferal analyses and a novel depth-dependent sediment grain size method to reconstruct the paleowater depths for, two continuously-cored drill holes, which are integrated with studies of outcropping sections. The thesis presents a new record of the amplitude and frequency of orbitally-paced, global sea-level changes from a wave-graded continental shelf, that is independent of the benthic δ¹⁸O proxy record of global ice-volume change.  Paleobathymetric interpretations are underpinned by analysis of extant benthic foraminiferal census data and a statistical correlation with the distribution of modern taxa. In general, water depths derived from foraminiferal modern analogue technique are consistent with variability recorded by lithofacies. The inferred sea-level cycles co-vary with a qualitative climate record reconstructed from a census of extant pollen and spores, and a modern temperature relationship. A high-resolution age model is established using magnetostratigraphy constrained by biostratigraphy, and the dating and correlation of tephra. This integrated chronostratigraphy allows the recognition of 23 individual sedimentary cycles, that are correlated “one-to-one” across the paleo-shelf and are compared to the deep-ocean benthic oxygen isotope (δ ¹⁸O) record.  A grain size-water depth technique was developed to quantify the paleobathymetry with more precision than the relatively insensitive benthic foraminifera approach. The method utilises a water depth threshold relationship between wave-induced near bed velocity and the velocity required to transport sand. The resulting paleobathymetric records of the most sensitive sites, the mid-Pliocene Siberia-1 drill core and the late Pliocene Rangitikei River section, were selected to compile a composite paleobathymetry. A one-dimensional backstripping method was then applied to remove the effects of tectonic subsidence, sediment and water loading on the record, to derive a relative sea level (RSL) curve.  The contribution of glacio-hydro-isostatic (GIA) processes to the RSL record was evaluated using a process-based forward numerical solid Earth model for a range of plausible meltwater scenarios. The Whanganui Basin RSL record approximates eustatic sea level (ESL) in all scenarios when variability is dominated by Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater source during the mid-Pliocene, but overestimates ESL once Northern Hemisphere ice sheet variability dominates in the late Pliocene.  The RSL record displays 20 kyr precession-paced sea level variability during the MPWP with an average amplitude of ~15 ± 8 m, in-phase with southern high-latitude summer insolation. These are interpreted as ~20 m Antarctic Ice Sheet contributions, offset by ~ 5 m anti-phased Greenland Ice Sheet contribution, in the absence of a significant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. This interpretation is supported by a previously published ice-proximal precession-paced, ice-berg-rafted debris record recovered off the coast of Wilkes Land. The Whanganui RSL record is not consistent with a dominant 40 kyr pacing observed the benthic oxygen isotope stack at this time. While the deep ocean benthic δ¹⁸O stack is of varying temporal and spatial resolution, during this time interval, the Whanganui RSL record implies a more complex relationship between ice-volume and oxygen isotope composition of sea water (δ¹⁸Oseawater). The relative influences of varying composition of the polar ice sheets, marine versus land based ice, the out-of-phase behaviour of polar ice sheet growth and retreat, and a potential decoupling of ocean bottom water temperature and δ¹⁸Oseawater are explored.  The late Pliocene relative sea level record exhibits increasing ~40 kyr obliquity-paced amplitudes of ~20 ± 8 m. This is interpreted as a response to the expansion of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets after ~2.9 Ma. During this time the Antarctic proximal ice-berg rafted debris records display continuing precession-paced ice-volume fluctuations, but with decreasing amplitude suggesting cooling and stabilisation of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. With the bipolar glaciation, the ocean δ¹⁸O signal became increasingly dominated by northern hemisphere ice-volume. However, the RSL record implies relatively limited ice-volume contributions (up to ~25 m sea level equivalent) prior to ~2.6 Ma.  The large amplitude contribution of Antarctic Ice Sheets to global sea level during the MPWP has significant implications for the sensitivity of the Antarctica Ice Sheet to global temperatures 2-3°C above preindustrial levels, and atmospheric CO₂ forecast for the coming decades.</p>

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