Epidemic waves in relief against a structured climatic background

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Carl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Spatially Distributed

<p>For directly transmissible infectious diseases, seasonality in the course of epidemics may manifest in four major ways: susceptibility of the hosts, their individual and collective behavior, transmissibility of the pathogen, and survival of the latter under evolving environmental conditions. Mechanisms and concepts are not finally settled, notably in a pandemic setting. Climatic seasonality by itself is an aggregate, structured phenomenon that provides a spatially distributed background to the epidemic outbreak and its evolution at multiple timescales. Using advanced methods of data and systems analysis, including epidemiological and climate modeling, the RKI data of the COVID-19 epidemic curve for Berlin and a five-parameter climate data set of the nearby station Lindenberg (Mark) are analyzed in daily resolution over the period March 2020 to October 2021. Aimed to identify extrinsic impacts due to organized intraseasonal climate dynamics, as seen in sunshine duration and surface climate (pressure, temperature, humidity, wind), on intrinsic dynamics of the epidemic system, an established (SEIR) model of the latter and modifications thereof have been subjected to in-depth studies with a view on both genesis and timing of epidemic waves and their potential synchronization with climatic background dynamics. Starting with a case study for the spring 2020 period of shutdown, which unveils remarkable synchronies with the seasonal transition, estimates are given and applied to the follow-up period of individual and combined impacts of climate variables on the SEIR model in different oscillatory (non-equilibrium, lately endemic) regimes of operation.</p>

scholarly journals Experiences with virtual schools on “Climate data for impact assessments”

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janette Bessembinder ◽  
Judith Klostermann ◽  
Rutger Dankers ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjevic ◽  
Tomas Halenka
Keyword(s):  
Summer School ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Virtual Schools ◽  
Virtual School ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Impact Models

<p>The provision of climate services to users is a fast developing field. In support of this development, the IS-ENES3 project, funded within the EC Horizon2020 program, organized three schools on “Climate data for impact assessments” in 2020 and 2021. In an Autumn school, a Spring school and a Summer school, climate scientists and impact scientists were brought together. An important aim of the schools was to enhance interaction between Vulnerability-Impact-Adaptation (VIA) researchers, climate services providers and climate researchers. Another aim was to provide an overview of information on climate modeling, climate data, impact modelling and climate services based on the work of the IS-ENE3 project.</p><p>In the first three weeks a series of lectures was given, covering topics such as climate data and modelling, impact models, portals for accessing and processing climate data, setting-up impact assessments, and communication of results to stakeholders. In the last three weeks the participants worked in small groups of one climate scientist with one impact scientist on a case study under the guidance of the course lecturers. Impact and climate researchers were combined on purpose to let them experience how they could help each other.</p><p>Originally the schools were planned to take place on-site (e.g. in Prague) during one week; however, due to COVID-19 the schools had to be transformed to virtual schools with two weekly sessions during six weeks. Although the virtual set-up had some disadvantages (e.g. less possibilities for networking), there were also some advantages (e.g. the possibility to record the lectures and make them available to a broader audience; more time to explore and work with climate data in between the sessions, no CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for travelling). During this presentation we will present the set-up of the schools and the conversion to a virtual school. We will focus on the lessons learnt and the evaluation of the virtual schools by the participants and give some recommendations for similar schools and how to link the climate and VIA research communities .</p>

scholarly journals Satellite-derived sunshine duration data in the CM SAF SARAH-3 climate data record 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaqueline Drücke ◽  
Uwe Pfeifroth ◽  
Jörg Trentmann ◽  
Rainer Hollmann
Keyword(s):  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Climate Monitoring ◽  
Direct Normal Irradiance ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Climate Data Record

<p>Sunshine Duration (SDU) is an important parameter in climate monitoring (e.g., due to the availability of long term measurements) and weather application. The exceptional sunny years in Europe since 2018 have raised also the attention of the general public towards this parameter.</p><p>The definition of SDU by WMO via the threshold of 120 W/m<sup>2</sup> for the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) allows the estimation of sunshine duration from satellite-derived surface irradiance data. Sunshine duration is part of the climate data record (CDR) “Surface Solar Radiation data set – Heliosat” (SARAH-2.1, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V002_01) by EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), which is based on observations from the series of Meteosat satellites. The provided temporal resolutions are daily and monthly sums with a grid space of 0.05°; the data are available from 1983 to 2017 at www.cmsaf.eu. This climate data record is temporally extended by the so-called SARAH-ICDR (Interim Climate Data record) with an average timeliness of 3 days to allow climate monitoring. An updated, improved, and extended version of the SARAH-2.1 CDR is currently being developed and will be made available in early 2022. The SARAH-3 CDR of sunshine duration, covering 1983 to 2020, will be improved compared to the current version, in particular during situations with snow-covered surfaces.</p><p>Here, the algorithm, improvements compared to SARAH-2.1 and a first validation will be presented for sunshine duration, especially for Germany and Europe. The validation is based on station data from Climate Data Center (CDC) for Germany and European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) for Europe.</p>

scholarly journals SARAH-3 - a new satellite-based Cimate Data Record for surface radiation parameters from the CM SAF

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwe Pfeifroth ◽  
Jaqueline Drücke ◽  
Jörg Trentmann ◽  
Rainer Hollmann
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Climate Data Record

<p>The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates and distributes high quality long-term climate data records (CDR) of energy and water cycle parameters, which are freely available.</p><p>In fall 2021, a new version of the “Surface Solar Radiation data set – Heliosat” will be released: SARAH-3. As the previous editions, the SARAH-3 climate data record is based on satellite observations from the first and second METEOSAT generations and provides various surface radiation parameters, including global radiation, direct radiation, sunshine duration, photosynthetic active radiation and others. SARAH-3 covers the time period 1983 to 2020 and offers 30-minute instantaneous data as well as daily and monthly means on a regular 0.05° x 0.05° lon/lat grid.</p><p>In this presentation, an overview of the SARAH climate data record and their applications will be provided. A focus will be on the SARAH-3 developments and improvements (i.e. improved consideration of snow-covered surfaces). First validation results of the new Climate Data Record using surface reference observations will be presented. Further, SARAH-3 will be used for the analysis of the climate variability in Europe during the last decades.</p><p>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .</p>

SARAH-3 – a new satellite-based Climate Data Record of Surface Solar Radiation parameters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwe Pfeifroth ◽  
Jaqueline Drücke ◽  
Jörg Trentmann ◽  
Rainer Hollmann
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Climate Data Record

<p class="western"><span lang="en-US">The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates and distributes high quality long-term climate data records (CDR) of energy and water cycle parameters, which are freely available.</span></p> <p class="western"><span lang="en-US">In 2022, a new version of the “Surface Solar Radiation data set – Heliosat” will be released: SARAH-3. As the previous editions, the SARAH-3 climate data record is based on satellite observations from the first and second METEOSAT generations and provides various surface radiation parameters, including global radiation, direct radiation, sunshine duration, photosynthetic active radiation and others. SARAH-3 covers the time period 1983 to 2020 and offers 30-minute instantaneous data as well as daily and monthly means on a regular 0.05° x 0.05° lon/lat grid.</span></p> <p class="western" align="left"><span lang="en-US">In this presentation, an overview of the SARAH climate data record and their applications will be given. A focus will be on the SARAH-3 developments and validation with surface reference observations. Further, SARAH-3 will be used for a first analysis of the climate variability and potential trends of global radiation in Europe during the last decades. </span><span lang="en-US">The data record reveals that there is an increasing trend of surface solar radiation in Europe during the last decades, which is superimposed by decadal and regional variability.</span></p>

Climatic environment of the COVID-19 outbreak – a lesson from the German shutdown

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Carl
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Pressure Wave ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climatic Environment

<p>For directly transmissible infectious diseases, potential seasonal effects in the course of an epidemic may be borne in four groups of variable, partially sensitive, pathways: changes in the susceptibility of the hosts, in their individual and collective behavior, in the transmissibility of the pathogen, and in the survival of the latter, under changing environmental conditions. Mechanisms are diverse and concepts not finally settled, not even for the common cold or influenza. Nevertheless, seasonality of an epidemic is an aggregate phenomenon, and this holds for interacting effects as well even in the climatic conditions themselves. Societal shutdown aimed at containing an epidemic, like the German shutdown in spring 2020, creates a kind of ‘laboratory’ situation and bears rare data that may be suited to disentangle extrinsic from intrinsic factors of the evolution. In a pilot study, a five-parameter climatic data set of station Lindenberg (Mark), taken as representative for the German capital, has been blended in daily resolution with the COVID-19 incidences provided by the Robert Koch Institute. The climate data include surface air temperature, pressure, relative humidity and wind speed, as well as sunshine duration – all under suspicion in the related literature. Early in March, a specific dynamic combination of these five variables, toward the spring seasonal transition, may eventually have triggered the epidemic outbreak in Berlin. Under relatively cool conditions and a calm wind field, a pronounced surface pressure wave passed the region, followed by a marked change in cloudiness that substantially increased the daily sunshine duration and became accompanied by a mirror-like drop this way in the relative humidity from above 85% to less than 50%. This favorable change of extrinsic conditions may have contributed to transform a latent spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into the epidemic outbreak (the rising flank of the epidemic curve closely follows that of the pressure wave by a couple of days, whereas a similar pressure wave two months before did not have any similar effect). In the weeks to follow the outbreak, a sort of cooperative slow dynamics is maintained in the regional climate system, and this is exploited for the period until the rise of shutdown restrictions to quantify regressions aimed to drive an equation-based epidemic model by observed climate dynamics. The study is being extended – across the season 2020, to further climate stations, to other regional outbreaks, beyond observation, etc.</p>

Intensive Stuttering Therapy With Telepractice Follow-up: A Case Study

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzan Irani ◽  
Rodney Gabel
Keyword(s):  
Case Report ◽  
Therapeutic Intervention ◽  
Intensive Therapy ◽  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Eclectic Approach

This case report describes the positive outcome of a therapeutic intervention that integrated an intensive, residential component with follow-up telepractice for a 21 year old male who stutters. This therapy utilized an eclectic approach to intensive therapy in conjunction with a 12-month follow-up via video telepractice. The results indicated that the client benefited from the program as demonstrated by a reduction in percent stuttered syllables, a reduction in stuttering severity, and a change in attitudes and feelings related to stuttering and speaking.

Efektivitas Layanan Darurat Jakarta Siaga 112 dalam Penanganan Kebakaran oleh UPT. Pusat Data & Informasi Kebencanaan BPBD Provinsi DKI Jakarta

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Musa Musa
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Service ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
The Public ◽  
Information Center ◽  
Disaster Data ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Document Review

This research was conducted to determine the Effectiveness of Jakarta Siaga 112 Emergency Services in Fire Management by UPT. Disaster Data & Information Center of BPBD DKI Jakarta Province by paying attention to aspects contained in the Effectiveness of the Jakarta Siaga Emergency Service Program 112. The research method was carried out with a case study method with data collection techniques using interview methods and document review. Interviews were conducted on 10 (ten) key informants, document review focused on documents related to the Jakarta Emergency Alert Service 112 Effectiveness research in Fire Management. The results showed that the Effectiveness of Jakarta Siaga 112 Emergency Services in Fire Management by UPT. The Center for Disaster Data & Information BPBD DKI Jakarta Province Its effectiveness is still low, due to the Implementation of Emergency Services Jakarta Standby 112 in Fire Management implemented by UPT. Disaster Data & Information Center of BPBD DKI Jakarta Province in terms of the Target Group Understanding of the Program, the Achievement of the Program Objectives aspects, and the Program Follow-up aspects. It is recommended to continue to disseminate this Emergency Service to the public, it is necessary to increase the firm commitment of the Head of 8 SKPD related to fire management so that all units play a role in accordance with the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for Fire Management and the evaluation and follow-up of program services that are held periodically 3 once a month.Keywords: Effectiveness, Emergency Services, Fire Handling

Paranasal Sinus Mucocele Clinical, imagistic and biochemical aspects

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Doina Vesa ◽  
Cristian Martu ◽  
Razvan Leata ◽  
Ludmila Lozneanu ◽  
luminita Radulescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Facial Asymmetry ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Mri Scans ◽  
The One ◽  
Ethmoid Sinuses ◽  
Retrospective Case Study ◽  
Cellular Components ◽  
Ct And Mri

Paranasal mucoceles are a type of cysts that evolve slowly and are asymptomatic; this poses a difficulty in diagnosing the patient because the symptoms can go unnoticed. The mucocele evolves unpredictably. On the one hand, it can become infected turning into pyoceles and on the other hand, it can invade important regions such as the orbital, cranial or genian regions, creating facial asymmetry. This is a retrospective case study of 37 patients diagnosed with sinus mucoceles, followed up by clinical examination and paraclinical tests such as CT and MRI scans. The biochemical components of the liquid from within the mucocele were analyzed and the following criteria were recorded: NaCl-, Cl-, Na+ and cholesterine as well as cellular components such as mastocytes, macrophages, hematocytes and leucocytes. In all cases, the treatment option was surgery with favorable post-operative and follow-up evaluation. The mucoceles that appeared post-operatively (maxillary and ethmoid sinuses) evolved more rapidly than the mucoceles that were induced byan external injury. Longer follow-up of operated patients permitted a more timely diagnosis of recurrences.

Obesity management through Ayurveda - A Case Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dheeraj Kumar Tyagi ◽  
Shivakumar .
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Findings ◽  
Dietary Habit ◽  
Unhealthy Lifestyle ◽  
Lifestyle Management ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Effect Of Treatment ◽  
And Control

Lifestyle disorders are one of the biggest threats for the population living unhealthy lifestyle. Sthoulya (Obesity) is one such disorder which creates lot of physical as well as mental disorder to the sufferer. Due to changing lifestyle, comforts and dietary habit lots of individuals changed their life totally. Obesity is a growing disease in developed and developing countries. Prevalence is drastically hike in past few years. Ayurveda, the science of life with which we can manage and control lots of lifestyle disorders. Focusing on dietary and lifestyle management along with treatment, we can overcome the hazards of obesity which is growing in a uncontrolled manner. The available data is based on the clinical findings only. Aim and objective: To assess the effect of “Guru Cha Atarpanam Chikitsa” in the management of Sthoulya. Setting: Swastharakshana evam Yoga, OPD and IPD, SDMCAH, Hassan. Method: Udwarthana, Parisheka, Shamana Aushadhis, Ahara, and Vihara was followed within the treatment duration and effect of treatment was assessed before and after treatment, advised for follow up. Results: The treatment adopted is effective in the management of Sthoulya and to improve the quality of life.

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