Representation of emissions from European major population centeres in MECO(n) - Lessons learned from EMeRGe-EU

Author(s):  
Mariano Mertens ◽  
Astrid Kerkweg ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Markus Kilian ◽  
Lisa Eirenschmalz ◽  
...  

<p>Comprehensive regional chemistry-climate or chemistry transport models are important tools to study the impact of emissions from major population centres (MPC) and/or investigate potential mitigation options for MPC emissions. Before such models can be employed it is important to investigate how well the models represent observed atmospheric conditions. This comparison helps not only in judging the performance of the models, but allows to test our understanding of chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere. A prerequisite for an extensive evaluation of models are the availability of temporally and spatially high resolved observational data. Such a data set was obtained during the EMeRGe-Europe campaign of the HALO research aircraft in July 2017, which targeted the outflow of different MPC in Europe.</p><p>We used the data of the EMeRGe-EU campaign together with ground based observations to evaluate the representation of European MPC emissions in the MECO(n) model system. MECO(n) is a global/regional chemistry-climate model which couples the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO-CLM/MESSy on-line (i.e., during runtime) with the global chemistry climate-model EMAC. The dynamics of EMAC is nudged against ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We performed three nesting steps from 300 km on the global scale to 50 km, 12 km and 7 km on the regional scale. In our evaluation we focus on tropospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and related precursors, methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) and sulphur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>). </p><p>Generally, the comparison between the measurements and the model results shows a good representation of European MPC emissions in MECO(n). In detail, however, the measured mixing ratios of carbon monoxide (CO) and reactive nitrogen (NO<sub>y</sub>)  are underestimated, while O<sub>3</sub> and SO<sub>2</sub> are overestimated by the model. Potential reasons for these differences are too efficient vertical mixing, and underestimation of MPC emissions. </p><p>To test hypotheses for potential model improvements we performed additional sensitivity studies with different nudging data for EMAC and an alternative anthropogenic emission inventory. The differences of the model results to the observations, however, are only slightly influenced by these changes. Accordingly, further hypotheses for potential model improvements needs to be investigated.  While the simulated mixing ratios differ only slightly between the sensitivity studies, the ozone source apportionment results (using a tagging approach) show much larger differences. This indicates the large uncertainty of  source apportionment analyses caused by uncertainties of emission inventories and model dynamics and requires further analysis in the future. </p>

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1125-1142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Tost

Abstract. Lightning represents one of the dominant emission sources for NOx in the troposphere. The direct release of oxidised nitrogen in the upper troposphere does not only affect ozone formation, but also chemical and microphysical properties of aerosol particles in this region. This study investigates the direct impact of LNOx emissions on upper-tropospheric nitrate using a global chemistry climate model. The simulation results show a substantial influence of the lightning emissions on the mixing ratios of nitrate aerosol in the upper troposphere of more than 50 %. In addition to the impact on nitrate, lightning substantially affects the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere with substantial implications for gas-phase sulfate formation and new particle formation in the upper troposphere. In conjunction with the condensation of nitrates, substantial differences in the aerosol size distribution occur in the upper troposphere as a consequence of lightning. This has implications for the extinction properties of the aerosol particles and for the cloud optical properties. While the extinction is generally slightly enhanced due to the LNOx emissions, the response of the clouds is ambiguous due to compensating effects in both liquid and ice clouds. Resulting shortwave flux perturbations are of   ∼ −100 mW m−2 as determined from several sensitivity scenarios, but an uncertainty range of almost 50 % has to be defined due to the large internal variability of the system and the uncertainties in the multitude of involved processes. Despite the clear statistical significance of the influence of lightning on the nitrate concentrations, the robustness of the findings gradually decreases towards the determination of the radiative flux perturbations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 363-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Mertens ◽  
Astrid Kerkweg ◽  
Volker Grewe ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Robert Sausen

Abstract. Anthropogenic and natural emissions influence the tropospheric ozone budget, thereby affecting air quality and climate. To study the influence of different emission sources on the ozone budget, often source apportionment studies with a tagged tracer approach are performed. Studies investigating air quality issues usually rely on regional models with a fine spatial resolution, while studies focusing on climate-related questions often use coarsely resolved global models. It is well known that simulated ozone mixing ratios depend on the resolution of the model and the resolution of the emission inventory. Whether the contributions simulated using source apportionment approaches also depend on the model resolution, however, is still unclear. Therefore, this study attempts for the first time to analyse the impact of the model, the model resolution, and the emission inventory resolution on simulated ozone contributions using a diagnostic tagging method. The differences in the ozone contributions caused by these factors are compared with differences that arise from the usage of different emission inventories. To do so, we apply the MECO(n) (MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times) model system which couples online a global chemistry-climate model with a regional chemistry-climate model equipped with a tagging scheme for source apportionment. The results of the global model (at 300 km horizontal resolution) are compared with the results of the regional model at 50 km (Europe) and 12 km (Germany) resolutions. Besides model-specific differences and biases that are discussed in detail, our results have important implications for other modelling studies and modellers applying source apportionment methods. First, contributions from anthropogenic emissions averaged over the continental scale are quite robust with respect to the model, model resolution, and emission inventory resolution. Second, differences on the regional scale caused by different models and model resolutions can be quite large, and regional models are indispensable for source apportionment studies on the subcontinental scale. Third, contributions from stratospheric ozone transported to the surface differ strongly between the models, mainly caused by differences in the efficiency of the vertical mixing. As stratospheric ozone plays an important role for ground level ozone, but the models show large differences in the amount of downward transported ozone, source apportionment methods should account for this source explicitly to better understand inter-model differences.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Boschini ◽  
Federica Zambrini ◽  
Givanni Menduni ◽  
Daniela Molinari ◽  
Daniele Bignami

<p>A rapid evaluation of flood damage is strategic for the good success of emergency management activities after a natural disaster. A method for the estimation of economic damage is developed considering the impact of hydrogeological phenomena with meteoclimatic forcing over settlements, industrial and rural areas and commercial activities.</p><p>Damage estimation is a very current research field, but the available methods are far from being effective in the period immediately following the event. This is due particularly to the intrinsic complexity and variability of the damage process and the lack of reliable and consistent damage measures across areas at least at the regional scale.</p><p>This work proposes a national scale first approximation correlation between vulnerated area and expected damage. The relationship, expressed in terms of power law, is calibrated on a huge number of single damage records collected by the Italian government all through the country during flood and landslide events in the last 6 years. Data have been grouped following the type of flood. Records come from official data provided by government commissioners in charge of emergency management, according to the national law. Validation, carried out on an independent data set, is quite encouraging and provides indications for further developments.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Winterstein ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Martin Dameris ◽  
Michael Ponater ◽  
Fabian Tanalski ◽  
...  

<p>Methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) is the second most important greenhouse gas, which atmospheric concentration is influenced by human activities and currently on a sharp rise. We present a study with numerical simulations using a Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM), which are performed to assess possible consequences of strongly enhanced CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere for the climate.</p><p>Our analysis includes experiments with 2xCH<sub>4</sub> and 5xCH<sub>4</sub> present day (2010) lower boundary mixing ratios using the CCM EMAC. The simulations are conducted with prescribed oceanic conditions, mimicking present day tropospheric temperatures as its changes are largely suppressed. By doing so we are able to investigate the quasi-instantaneous chemical impact on the atmosphere. We find that the massive increase in CH<sub>4</sub> strongly influences the tropospheric chemistry by reducing the OH abundance and thereby extending the tropospheric CH<sub>4</sub> lifetime as well as the residence time of other chemical pollutants. The region above the tropopause is impacted by a substantial rise in stratospheric water vapor (SWV). The stratospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) column increases overall, but SWV induced stratospheric cooling also leads to enhanced ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. Regional  patterns of ozone change are affected by modification of stratospheric dynamics, i.e. increased tropical up-welling and stronger meridional transport  towards the polar regions. We calculate the net radiative impact (RI) of the 2xCH<sub>4</sub> experiment to be 0.69 W m<sup>-2</sup> and for the 5xCH<sub>4</sub> experiment to be 1.79 W m<sup>-2</sup>. A substantial part of the RI is contributed by chemically induced O<sub>3</sub> and SWV changes, in line with previous radiative forcing estimates and is for the first time splitted and spatially asigned to its chemical contributors.</p><p>This numerical study using a CCM with prescibed oceanic conditions shows the rapid responses to significantly enhanced CH<sub>4</sub> mixing ratios, which is the first step towards investigating the impact of possible strong future CH<sub>4</sub> emissions on atmospheric chemistry and its feedback on climate.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 3573-3604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Funke ◽  
William Ball ◽  
Stefan Bender ◽  
Angela Gardini ◽  
V. Lynn Harvey ◽  
...  

Abstract. We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx  =  NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1977-2020
Author(s):  
F. Khosrawi ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
M. H. Proffitt ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner ◽  
...  

Abstract. 1-year data sets of monthly averaged nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) derived from satellite measurements were used as a tool for the evaluation of atmospheric photochemical models. Two 1-year data sets, one derived from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer (ILAS and ILAS-II) and one from the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (Odin/SMR) were employed. Here, these data sets are used for the evaluation of two Chemical Transport Models (CTMs), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) as well as for one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 (E5M1) in the lower stratosphere with focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Since the Odin/SMR measurements cover the entire hemisphere, the evaluation is performed for the entire hemisphere as well as for the low latitudes, midlatitudes and high latitudes using the Odin/SMR 1-year data set as reference. To assess the impact of using different data sets for such an evaluation study we repeat the evaluation for the polar lower stratosphere using the ILAS/ILAS-II data set. Only small differences were found using ILAS/ILAS-II instead of Odin/SMR as a reference, thus, showing that the results are not influenced by the particular satellite data set used for the evaluation. The evaluation of CLaMS, KASIMA and E5M1 shows that all models are in good agreement with Odin/SMR and ILAS/ILAS-II. Differences are generally in the range of ±20%. Larger differences (up to −40%) are found in all models at 500±25 K for N2O mixing ratios greater than 200 ppb. Generally, the largest differences were found for the tropics and the lowest for the polar regions. However, an underestimation of polar winter ozone loss was found both in KASIMA and E5M1 both in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 18839-18882 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Namazi ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. N. S. Cole

Abstract. A new physically-based parameterization of black carbon (BC) in snow was developed and implemented in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Simulated BC snow mixing ratios and BC snow radiative forcings are in good agreement with measurements and results from other models. Simulations with the improved model yield considerable trends in regional BC concentrations in snow and BC snow radiative forcings during the time period from 1950–1959 to 2000–2009. Increases in radiative forcings for Asia and decreases for Europe and North America are found to be associated with changes in BC emissions. Additional sensitivity simulations were performed in order to study the impact of BC emission changes between 1950–1959 and 2000–2009 on surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface air temperature. Results from these simulations indicate that impacts of BC emission changes on snow albedos between these two decades are small and not significant. Overall, changes in BC concentrations in snow have much smaller impacts on the cryosphere than the net warming surface air temperatures during the second half of the 20th century.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 29447-29481
Author(s):  
W. Wang ◽  
W. Tian ◽  
S. Dhomse ◽  
F. Xie ◽  
J. Shu

Abstract. We have investigated the impact of assumed nitrous oxide (N2O) increases on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics by a series of idealized simulations. In a future cooler stratosphere the net yield of NOy from a changed N2O is known to decrease, but NOy can still be significantly increased by the increase of N2O. Results with a coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) show that increases in N2O of 50%/100% between 2001 and 2050 result in more ozone destruction, causing a reduction in ozone mixing ratios of maximally 6%/10% in the middle stratosphere at around 10 hPa. This enhanced destruction could cause an ozone decline in the second half of this century in the middle stratosphere. However, the total ozone column still shows an increase in future decades, though the increase of 50%/100% in N2O caused a 2%/6% decrease in TCO compared with the reference simulation. N2O increases have significant effects on ozone trends at 20–10 hPa in the tropics and at northern high latitude, but have no significant effect on ozone trends in the Antarctic stratosphere. The ozone depletion potential for N2O in a future climate depends both on stratospheric temperature changes and tropospheric N2O changes, which have reversed effects on ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere. A 50% CO2 increase in conjunction with a 50% N2O increase cause significant ozone depletion in the middle stratosphere and lead to an increase of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis and a series of sensitivity simulations, we find that the chemical effect of N2O increases dominates the ozone changes in the stratosphere while the dynamical and radiative effects of N2O increases are insignificant on average. However, the dynamical effect of N2O increases may cause large local changes in ozone mixing ratios, particularly, in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Beaufort ◽  
Nicolas Lamouroux ◽  
Hervé Pella ◽  
Thibault Datry ◽  
Eric Sauquet

Abstract. Headwater streams represent a substantial proportion of river systems and have frequently flows intermittence due to their upstream position in the network. These intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams have recently seen a marked increase in interest, especially to assess the impact of drying on aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to quantify how discrete (in space and time) field observations of flow intermittence help to extrapolate the daily probability of drying at the regional scale. Two empirical models based on linear or logistic regressions have been developed to predict the daily probability of intermittence at the regional scale across France. Explanatory variables were derived from available daily discharge and groundwater level data of a dense gauging/piezometer network, and models were calibrated using discrete series of field observations of flow intermittence. The robustness of the models was tested using (1) an independent, dense regional data set of intermittence observations, (2) observations of the year 2017 excluded from the calibration. The resulting models were used to simulate the regional probability of drying in France: (i) over the period 2011–2017 to identify the regions most affected by flow intermittence; (ii) over the period 1989–2017, using a reduced input dataset, to analyze temporal variability of flow intermittence at the national level. The two regressions models performed equally well between 2011 and 2017. The accuracy of predictions depended on the number of continuous gauging/piezometer stations and intermittence observations available to calibrate the regressions. Regions with the highest performance were located in sedimentary plains, where the monitoring network was dense and where the regional probability of drying was the highest. Conversely, worst performances were obtained in mountainous regions. Finally, temporal projections (1989–2016) suggested highest probabilities of intermittence (> 35 %) in 1989–1991, 2003 and 2005. A high density of intermittence observations improved the information provided by gauging stations and piezometers to extrapolate the spatial distribution of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1785-1806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Beirle ◽  
Steffen Dörner ◽  
Sebastian Donner ◽  
Julia Remmers ◽  
Yang Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Mainz profile algorithm (MAPA) derives vertical profiles of aerosol extinction and trace gas concentrations from MAX-DOAS measurements of slant column densities under multiple elevation angles. This paper presents (a) a detailed description of the MAPA (v0.98), (b) results for the CINDI-2 campaign, and (c) sensitivity studies on the impact of a priori assumptions such as flag thresholds. Like previous profile retrieval schemes developed at MPIC, MAPA is based on a profile parameterization combining box profiles, which also might be lifted, and exponential profiles. But in contrast to previous inversion schemes based on least-square fits, MAPA follows a Monte Carlo approach for deriving those profile parameters yielding best match to the MAX-DOAS observations. This is much faster and directly provides physically meaningful distributions of profile parameters. In addition, MAPA includes an elaborated flagging scheme for the identification of questionable or dubious results. The AODs derived with MAPA for the CINDI-2 campaign show good agreement with AERONET if a scaling factor of 0.8 is applied for O4, and the respective NO2 and HCHO surface mixing ratios match those derived from coincident long-path DOAS measurements. MAPA results are robust with respect to modifications of the a priori MAPA settings within plausible limits.


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