Eastern Mediterranean Drying: Projected Changes in Dynamics and Thermodynamics and Their Relation to Large-Scale Processes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eilat Elbaum ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
Ori Adam ◽  
Efrat Morin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Changes

<p>Observations from the past century and projections for the end of this century exhibit a decrease in precipitation over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and surrounding land areas, but the magnitude of the expected drying is unknown. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamic (moist) and dynamic (dry) processes, but the relative contributions of these processes, in particular on regional scales, is not well understood. Previous studies have analyzed the ability of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multi-model mean to represent the spatial and seasonal patterns of the Mediterranean hydroclimate. A wide spread exists among the individual models, which can be exploited to better understand the factors controlling future climate. Garfinkel et al. (2020)<sup>[i]</sup> found that large-scale mechanisms contribute about 50% of the model spread in Eastern Mediterranean drying. This study further explores the variance across models in projected changes of the moisture budget by decomposing them into mean dynamic, mean thermodynamic and transient components. These components are then related to the variance across models in projected large-scale processes. Through these analyses, uncertainties regarding future changes in precipitation can be reduced.</p><p><sup>[i]</sup> Garfinkel, C. I. et al. (2020) ‘The role of zonally averaged climate change in contributing to inter-model spread in CMIP5 predicted local precipitation changes’, Journal of Climate, 33, pp. 1141–1154. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1.</p>

Eastern Mediterranean Drying: Projected Changes in Dynamics and Thermodynamics and Their Relation to Large-Scale Processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eilat Elbaum ◽  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ori Adam ◽  
Efrat Morin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Observations from the past century and projections for the end of this century show a decrease in precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and surrounding land areas. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, but the relative contributions of these processes, in particular on regional scales, is not well understood. Models included in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) exhibit a wide spread in the magnitude of expected drying in the eastern Mediterranean region, as well as in other meteorological variables. By decomposing projected changes in the moisture budget in 48 models into mean dynamic and mean thermodynamic components, we explore the contribution of each of these components to the model spread in regional drying. In the eastern Mediterranean, the dynamic component explains 64% and the thermodynamic component explains 9% of the variance in net precipitation change. We further examine the relation of the regional components to changes in five large-scale mechanisms: tropical vertical stratification, global near-surface temperature, latitude of the eddy-driven jet, stratospheric polar vortex, and arctic amplification. Of these, we find that a decrease in the dynamical contribution in the eastern Mediterranean, causing regional drying, is most strongly related to a northward shift of the eddy-driven jet and a rise in global near-surface temperature.</p>

scholarly journals Human in the face of global pandemics: historical and psychological review

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1 (32)) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
A.L. Ustinov ◽  
◽  
E.S. Naboichenko ◽  
S.V. Chuprakova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Medical Knowledge ◽  
Industrial Society ◽  
Psychological Review ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Individual

The article attempts to analyze the historical and psychological aspects of the world pandemics of the past and present. The authors provide a detailed overview of the world's pandemics and their impact on society and the individual. Historical and psychological reviews allow us to draw a parallel between the large-scale pandemics of the past and the present, which is especially relevant in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic that has engulfed humanity. A logical and reasonable periodization of global pandemics is suggested, and the authors give a detailed description of each stage. The first stage includes the pandemics of traditional and early industrial society that raged in the ancient world, the middle ages, and early modern times. The authors highlight such features as a high mortality rate, localization in certain regions and continents, the connection of the spread of diseases with the processes of population migration, crusades, and great geographical discoveries. The second stage includes the pandemics of the industrial era, which occur in the context of globalization, urbanization and increasing crowding of the population, but become less destructive. The authors associate the third stage with modern pandemics generated by the transition to a post-industrial (information) society. The authors note the reduction in mortality from pandemics, and at the same time mutations of viruses, which forces scientists around the world to constantly search for and develop new vaccines. Historical, cultural and psychological analysis of past pandemics allows us to understand better the psychological features of human life in the context of a new coronavirus infection. The authors reveal the role of technological progress in the fight against global pandemics, the role of virus mutations in the development of medical knowledge.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Late-Twenty-First-Century Tropical Cyclone Frequency in 13 Coupled Climate Models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9946-9959 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. Tory ◽  
S. S. Chand ◽  
J. L. McBride ◽  
H. Ye ◽  
R. A. Dare
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency under anthropogenic climate change are examined for 13 global models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC-detection method developed by the authors in earlier papers. The method detects large-scale conditions within which TCs form. It was developed and tuned in atmospheric reanalysis data and then applied without change to the climate models to ensure model and detector independence. Changes in TC frequency are determined by comparing TC detections in the CMIP5 historical runs (1970–2000) with high emission scenario (representative concentration pathway 8.5) future runs (2070–2100). A number of the models project increases in frequency of higher-latitude tropical cyclones in the late twenty-first century. Inspection reveals that these high-latitude systems were subtropical in origin and are thus eliminated from the analysis using an objective classification technique. TC detections in 8 of the 13 models reproduce observed TC formation numbers and geographic distributions reasonably well, with annual numbers within ±50% of observations. TC detections in the remaining five models are particularly low in number (10%–28% of observed). The eight models with a reasonable TC climatology all project decreases in global TC frequency varying between 7% and 28%. Large intermodel and interbasin variations in magnitude and sign are present, with the greatest variations in the Northern Hemisphere basins. These results are consistent with results from earlier-generation climate models and thus confirm the robustness of coupled model projections of globally reduced TC frequency.

scholarly journals Adolescent and adult laryngotracheal stenosis: a review

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Johan Klopper ◽  
Oladele Vincent Adeniyi ◽  
Kate Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Laryngotracheal Stenosis ◽  
Airway Protection ◽  
Interventional Pulmonology ◽  
The Past ◽  
Airway Emergency ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Function

Abstract Background The larynx has multiple composite functions which include phonation, airway protection, and sensory control of respiration. Stenosis of the larynx and trachea were first recorded by O’Dwyer in 1885 and by Colles in 1886, respectively. Initially, the aetiology of laryngotracheal stenosis was predominantly infective. Currently, the leading cause is iatrogenic injury to the laryngotracheal complex secondary to prolonged ventilation in an intensive care unit. Main body Laryngotracheal stenosis is a complex and diverse disease. It poses a major challenge to the surgeon and can present as an airway emergency. Management typically demands the combined involvement of various disciplines including otorhinolaryngology, cardiothoracic surgery, anaesthesiology, interventional pulmonology, and radiology. Both the disease and its management can impact upon respiration, voice, and swallowing. The incidence of iatrogenic laryngotracheal stenosis has reflected the evolution of airway and intensive care whilst airway surgery has advanced concurrently over the past century. Correction of laryngotracheal stenosis requires expansion of the airway lumen; this is achieved by either endoscopic or open surgery. We review the relevant basic science, aetiopathogenesis, diagnosis, management, and treatment outcomes of LTS. Conclusion The choice of surgical procedure in the management of laryngotracheal stenosis is often dictated by the individual anatomy and function of the larynx and trachea, together with patient factors and available facilities. Regardless of how the surgeon chooses to approach these lesions, prevention of iatrogenic laryngotracheal damage remains of primary importance.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

scholarly journals Obesidade versus Ocupações: papeis ocupacionais de adultos com obesidade/Obesety versus occupations: Occupational roles of obese adults

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-361
Author(s):  
Fernando Coelho Dias ◽  
Mateus Menezes Ribeiro ◽  
Camilla Oleiro Da Costa ◽  
Zayanna Christine Lopes Lindôso
Keyword(s):  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Obese Adults ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Occupational Roles ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Performance Pattern

Introdução: Atualmente, a obesidade é considerada um grave problema de saúde pública, pois além de ser uma doença, é um fator de risco para progressão e desenvolvimento de outras doenças crônicas não transmissíveis. Objetivo: Compreender a percepção de indivíduos com obesidade quanto à participação em papeis ocupacionais, grau de importância atribuído a cada papel e padrão de desempenho de papeis ocupacionais ao longo da vida. Método: Configura-se como um estudo transversal do tipo exploratório de caráter descritivo, com análise quantitativa dos dados. Como instrumento, utilizou-se a Lista de Identificação de Papéis Ocupacionais. Resultados: A amostra foi composta por 65 indivíduos com obesidade, 87,7% (n=57) era do sexo feminino e 12,3% (n=8) do sexo masculino, tendo como média de idade 42 anos e 9 meses. Constatou-se que o papel mais comum no passado foi o de estudante e com relação ao presente e futuro, os papeis mais citados foram os de serviço doméstico e membro da família. Quanto ao grau de importância, identificou-se que os indivíduos valorizam os papeis ocupacionais, atribuindo maior valorização aos papeis de membro da família e trabalho, e menor proporção de valor ao papel de participação em organizações. Conclusão: A condição de obesidade pode interferir no modo como o indivíduo se envolve e desempenha suas ocupações, evidenciando a terapia ocupacional como uma estratégia importante no enfrentamento da obesidade. AbstractIntroduction: Currently, obesity is considered a serious public health problem, since it is also a disease, it is a risk factor for progression and development of other chronic non-communicable diseases. Objective: To understand the perception of individuals with obesity regarding the participation in occupational roles throughout life, about the degree of importance attributed to each role, and in a complementary way to identify the performance pattern of occupational roles in Long life. Method: It is configured as a cross-sectional exploratory study of descriptive character, with quantitative analysis of the data, as an instrument used the identification list of occupational roles. Results: The sample consisted of 65 obese individuals. Of these, 87.7% (n = 57) were females and 12.3% (n = 8) were males, with a mean age of 42 years 9 months. It was found that the most common role in the past was that of student and in relation to the present and future the most cited roles were those of domestic service and family member. As to the degree of importance, it was identified that the individuals value the occupational roles, attributing greater value to the roles of family members and work, and less appreciation of the role of participation in organizations. Conclusion: The condition of obesity can interfere in the way the individual engages and performs his occupations, thus placing the occupational therapy professional as an important member in coping with obesity.Key words: Obesity, Activities of Daily Living, Occupations, Occupational Therapy.ResumenIntroducción: Actualmente, la obesidad se considera un grave problema de salud pública, ya que es también una enfermedad, es un factor de riesgo para la progresión y el desarrollo de otras enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles. Objetivo: comprender la percepción de los individuos con obesidad con respecto a la participación en los roles ocupacionales a lo largo de la vida, sobre el grado de importancia atribuido a cada función, y de manera complementaria para identificar el patrón de desempeño de los roles ocupacionales en Larga vida. Método: se configura como un estudio exploratorio transversal de carácter descriptivo, con análisis cuantitativo de los datos, como instrumento utilizó la lista de identificación de roles ocupacionales. Resultados: la muestra consistió en 65 individuos obesos. De ellos, 87,7% (n = 57) fueron hembras y 12,3% (n = 8) fueron varones, con una edad media de 42 años 9 meses. Se descubrió que el papel más común en el pasado era el de los estudiantes y en relación con el presente y el futuro, los papeles más citados eran los del servicio doméstico y el miembro de la familia. En cuanto al grado de importancia se identificó que los individuos valoran los papeles ocupacionales, atribuyendo mayor valoración a los papeles de miembro de la familia y trabajo, y menor valorización al papel de participación en organizaciones. Conclusión: la condición de la obesidad puede interferir en la forma en que el individuo se involucra y realiza sus ocupaciones, colocando así al profesional de la terapia ocupacional como un miembro importante para hacer frente a la obesidad.Palabras clave: Obesidad, Actividades Cotidianas, Ocupaciones, Terapia Ocupacional.  

scholarly journals The phenomenon of signed music in Deaf culture

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 259-271
Author(s):  
Marina Radić-Šestić ◽  
Mia Šešum ◽  
Ljubica Isaković
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Deaf Culture ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Deaf Community ◽  
The Past ◽  
Art Form ◽  
Cultural Frameworks ◽  
Musical Perception ◽  
Musical Elements

Introduction. Music in the Deaf community is a socio-cultural phenomenon that depicts a specific identity and way of experiencing the world, which is just as diverse, rich and meaningful as that of members of any other culture. Objective. The aim of this paper was to point out the historical and socio-cultural frameworks, complexity, richness, specific elements, types and forms of musical expression of members of the Deaf community. Methods. The applied methods included comparative analysis, evaluation, and deduction and induction system. Results. Due to limitations or a lack of auditive component, the members of Deaf culture use different communication tools, such as speech, pantomime, facial expressions and sign language. Signed music, as a phenomenon, is the artistic form which does not have long history. However, since the nineties of the past century and with technological development, it has been gaining greater interest and acknowledgement within the Deaf community and among the hearing audience. Signed music uses specific visuo-spatial-kinaesthetic and auditive elements in expression, such as rhythm, dynamism, rhyme, expressiveness, iconicity, intensity of the musical perception and the combination of the role of the performer. Conclusion. Signed music as a phenomenon is an art form that incorporates sign poetic characteristics (lyrical contents), visual musical elements and dance.

Epilogue: A tale of two copulas

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
EVE ZYZIK ◽  
SUSAN GASS
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Language Contact ◽  
Second Language Learning ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Lexical Development ◽  
The Past ◽  
Context Of Learning

The five papers in this issue cover a range of perspectives on the acquisition and use of the Spanish copulasserandestarin a variety of contexts, including language contact, bilingual language acquisition, and classroom second language learning. The fact that these papers cite work in this area as far back as the early part of the 20th century with each subsequent decade being represented suggests the continual importance and complexity of the distinction between the two copular forms and shows how this complexity is played out in acquisition and bilingual use. Over the past century different perspectives have been taken on this multifaceted issue with linguistic explanations and the role of the native language being primary. In this epilogue, we focus on some of these same issues, but expand our commentary to include the new dimensions represented in this collection of papers: (i) context of learning (input), (ii) prior knowledge as represented by other language(s) known, (iii) item-learning and lexical development, and (iv) innovations in methodology.

Workflow and tools to analyse the PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<p>Experiment outputs are now available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s 6<sup>th</sup> phase (CMIP6) and the past climate experiments defined in the Model Intercomparison Project’s 4<sup>th</sup> phase (PMIP4). All of this output is freely available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Yet there are overheads in analysing this resource that may prove complicated or prohibitive. Here we document the steps taken by ourselves to produce ensemble analyses covering past and future simulations. We outline the strategy used to curate, adjust the monthly calendar aggregation and process the information downloaded from the ESGF. The results of these steps were used to perform analysis for several of the initial publications arising from PMIP4. We provide post-processed fields for each simulation, such as climatologies and common measures of variability. Example scripts used to visualise and analyse these fields is provided for several important case studies.</p>

When Cultural Evolution Calls for Translation Revolution

2018 ◽  
pp. 161-178
Author(s):  
Vanessa Lopes Lourenço Hanes
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Evolution ◽  
Written Language ◽  
The Other ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Linguistic Identity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Publishing Houses ◽  
The One

Given the massive changes that Brazil has undergone in the past century, particularly in distancing itself linguistically from its former colonizer, this study is an attempt to determine the role of translation in the country's cultural evolution. Translational approaches have developed along opposing poles: on the one hand, a strong resistance to incorporating orally-driven alterations in the written language, while on the other, a slow, halting movement toward convergence of the two, and both approaches are charged with political and ideological intentionality. Publishing houses, editors and translators are gatekeepers and agents whose activities provide a glimpse into the mechanism of national linguistic identity, either contributing to or resisting the myth of a homogenized Portuguese language.

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