False Spring over Europe: risk and uncertainties

Author(s):  
Raul Zurita-Milla ◽  
Rens Vermeltfoort ◽  
Serkan Girgin ◽  
Emma Izquierdo-Verdiguier

<p>Understanding the impact of the climate crisis on our planet, and hence, on human and natural life, is a pressing but challenging scientific endeavor. Phenological studies help to build such an understanding by analyzing changes in the timing of biological events. Such changes are, in turn, linked to changes in the likelihood of experiencing false springs. Here we examine the risk and uncertainty of false springs over Europe using the extended spring indices models and the E-OBS weather dataset (1950-onwards). False spring uncertainty is evaluated using the full ensemble of 100 daily weather realizations that accompany the E-OBS dataset. Smart computing is used to handle this relatively large amount of gridded data. Our results show that changes in false spring risk are heterogeneous in space, with increasing risks mostly found in the mid-latitudes and decreasing risks mostly found at high and low latitudes. From 1950 until 1979, there was a substantial increase in false spring risk, whereas the change in false spring risk from 1980 onwards is negligible. Our results also show that false spring uncertainty is highest in western Europe. These results highlight the importance of considering temperature uncertainty in phenological modeling, especially when examining the risk of false springs.</p><p> </p>

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 18323-18384 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Dalsøren ◽  
M. S. Eide ◽  
Ø. Endresen ◽  
A. Mjelde ◽  
G. Gravir ◽  
...  

Abstract. A reliable and up-to-date ship emission inventory is essential for atmospheric scientists quantifying the impact of shipping and for policy makers implementing regulations and incentives for emission reduction. The emission modelling in this study takes into account ship type and size dependent input data for 15 ship types and 7 size categories. Global port arrival and departure data for more than 32 000 merchant ships are used to establish operational profiles for the ship segments. The modelled total fuel consumption amounts to 217 Mt in 2004 of which 11 Mt is consumed in in-port operations. This is in agreement with international sales statistics. The modelled fuel consumption is applied to develop global emission inventories for CO2, NO2, SO2, CO, CH4, VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds), N2O, BC (Black Carbon) and OC (Organic Carbon). The global emissions from ships at sea and in ports are distributed geographically, applying extended geographical data sets covering about 2 million global ship observations and global port data for 32 000 ships. In addition to inventories for the world fleet, inventories are produced separately for the three dominating ship types, using ship type specific emission modelling and traffic distributions. A global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) was used to calculate the environmental impacts of the emissions. We find that ship emissions is a dominant contributor over much of the world oceans to surface concentrations of NO2 and SO2. The contribution is also large over some coastal zones. For surface ozone the contribution is high over the oceans but clearly also of importance over western North America (contribution 15–25%) and western Europe (5–15%). The contribution to tropospheric column ozone is up to 5–6%. The overall impact of ship emissions on global methane lifetime is large due to the high NOx emissions. With regard to acidification we find that ships contribute 11% to nitrate wet deposition and 4.5% to sulphur wet deposition globally. In certain coastal regions the contributions may be in the range 15–50%. In general we find that ship emissions have a large impact on acidic deposition and surface ozone in western North America, Scandinavia, western Europe, western North Africa and Malaysia/Indonesia. For most of these regions container traffic, the largest emitter by ship type, has the largest impact. This is the case especially for the Pacific and the related container trade routes between Asia and North America. However, the contributions from bulk ships and tank vessels are also significant in the above mentioned impact regions. Though the total ship impact at low latitudes is lower, the tank vessels have a quite large contribution at low latitudes and near the Gulf of Mexico and Middle East. The bulk ships are characterized by large impact in Oceania compared to other ship types. In Scandinavia and north-western Europe, one of the major ship impact regions, the three largest ship types have rather small relative contributions. The impact in this region is probably dominated by smaller ships operating closer to the coast. For emissions in ports impacts on NO2 and SO2 seem to be of significance. For most ports the contribution to the two components is in the range 0.5–5%, for a few ports it exceeds 10%. The approach presented provides an improvement in characterizing fleet operational patterns, and thereby ship emissions and impacts. Furthermore, the study shows where emission reductions can be applied to most effectively minimize the impacts by different ship types.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2171-2194 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Dalsøren ◽  
M. S. Eide ◽  
Ø. Endresen ◽  
A. Mjelde ◽  
G. Gravir ◽  
...  

Abstract. A reliable and up-to-date ship emission inventory is essential for atmospheric scientists quantifying the impact of shipping and for policy makers implementing regulations and incentives for emission reduction. The emission modelling in this study takes into account ship type and size dependent input data for 15 ship types and 7 size categories. Global port arrival and departure data for more than 32 000 merchant ships are used to establish operational profiles for the ship segments. The modelled total fuel consumption amounts to 217 Mt in 2004 of which 11 Mt is consumed in in-port operations. This is in agreement with international sales statistics. The modelled fuel consumption is applied to develop global emission inventories for CO2, NO2, SO2, CO, CH4, VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds), N2O, BC (Black Carbon) and OC (Organic Carbon). The global emissions from ships at sea and in ports are distributed geographically, applying extended geographical data sets covering about 2 million global ship observations and global port data for 32 000 ships. In addition to inventories for the world fleet, inventories are produced separately for the three dominating ship types, using ship type specific emission modelling and traffic distributions. A global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) was used to calculate the environmental impacts of the emissions. We find that ship emissions is a dominant contributor over much of the world oceans to surface concentrations of NO2 and SO2. The contribution is also large over some coastal zones. For surface ozone the contribution is high over the oceans but clearly also of importance over Western North America (contribution 15–25%) and Western Europe (5–15%). The contribution to tropospheric column ozone is up to 5–6%. The overall impact of ship emissions on global methane lifetime is large due to the high NOx emissions. With regard to acidification we find that ships contribute 11% to nitrate wet deposition and 4.5% to sulphur wet deposition globally. In certain coastal regions the contributions may be in the range 15–50%. In general we find that ship emissions have a large impact on acidic deposition and surface ozone in Western North America, Scandinavia, Western Europe, western North Africa and Malaysia/Indonesia. For most of these regions container traffic, the largest emitter by ship type, has the largest impact. This is the case especially for the Pacific and the related container trade routes between Asia and North America. However, the contributions from bulk ships and tank vessels are also significant in the above mentioned impact regions. Though the total ship impact at low latitudes is lower, the tank vessels have a quite large contribution at low latitudes and near the Gulf of Mexico and Middle East. The bulk ships are characterized by large impact in Oceania compared to other ship types. In Scandinavia and north-Western Europe, one of the major ship impact regions, the three largest ship types have rather small relative contributions. The impact in this region is probably dominated by smaller ships operating closer to the coast. For emissions in ports impacts on NO2 and SO2 seem to be of significance. For most ports the contribution to the two components is in the range 0.5–5%, for a few ports it exceeds 10%. The approach presented provides an improvement in characterizing fleet operational patterns, and thereby ship emissions and impacts. Furthermore, the study shows where emission reductions can be applied to most effectively minimize the impacts by different ship types.


1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-217
Author(s):  
Mir Annice Mahmood

Foreign aid has been the subject of much examination and research ever since it entered the economic armamentarium approximately 45 years ago. This was the time when the Second World War had successfully ended for the Allies in the defeat of Germany and Japan. However, a new enemy, the Soviet Union, had materialized at the end of the conflict. To counter the threat from the East, the United States undertook the implementation of the Marshal Plan, which was extremely successful in rebuilding and revitalizing a shattered Western Europe. Aid had made its impact. The book under review is by three well-known economists and is the outcome of a study sponsored by the Department of State and the United States Agency for International Development. The major objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of assistance, i.e., aid, on economic development. This evaluation however, was to be based on the existing literature on the subject. The book has five major parts: Part One deals with development thought and development assistance; Part Two looks at the relationship between donors and recipients; Part Three evaluates the use of aid by sector; Part Four presents country case-studies; and Part Five synthesizes the lessons from development assistance. Part One of the book is very informative in that it summarises very concisely the theoretical underpinnings of the aid process. In the beginning, aid was thought to be the answer to underdevelopment which could be achieved by a transfer of capital from the rich to the poor. This approach, however, did not succeed as it was simplistic. Capital transfers were not sufficient in themselves to bring about development, as research in this area came to reveal. The development process is a complicated one, with inputs from all sectors of the economy. Thus, it came to be recognized that factors such as low literacy rates, poor health facilities, and lack of social infrastructure are also responsible for economic backwardness. Part One of the book, therefore, sums up appropriately the various trends in development thought. This is important because the book deals primarily with the issue of the effectiveness of aid as a catalyst to further economic development.


Author(s):  
Stephen G. Wiedemann ◽  
Leo Biggs ◽  
Quan V. Nguyen ◽  
Simon J. Clarke ◽  
Kirsi Laitala ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Garment production and use generate substantial environmental impacts, and the care and use are key determinants of cradle-to-grave impacts. The present study investigated the potential to reduce environmental impacts by applying best practices for garment care combined with increased garment use. A wool sweater is used as an example because wool garments have particular attributes that favour reduced environmental impacts in the use phase. Methods A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to compare six plausible best and worst-case practice scenarios for use and care of a wool sweater, relative to current practices. These focussed on options available to consumers to reduce impacts, including reduced washing frequency, use of more efficient washing machines, reduced use of machine clothing dryers, garment reuse by multiple users, and increasing number of garment wears before disposal. A sixth scenario combined all options. Worst practices took the worst plausible alternative for each option investigated. Impacts were reported per wear in Western Europe for climate change, fossil energy demand, water stress and freshwater consumption. Results and discussion Washing less frequently reduced impacts by between 4 and 20%, while using more efficient washing machines at capacity reduced impacts by 1 to 6%, depending on the impact category. Reduced use of machine dryer reduced impacts by < 5% across all indicators. Reusing garments by multiple users increased life span and reduced impacts by 25–28% across all indicators. Increasing wears from 109 to 400 per garment lifespan had the largest effect, decreasing impacts by 60% to 68% depending on the impact category. Best practice care, where garment use was maximised and care practices focussed on the minimum practical requirements, resulted in a ~ 75% reduction in impacts across all indicators. Unsurprisingly, worst-case scenarios increased impacts dramatically: using the garment once before disposal increased GHG impacts over 100 times. Conclusions Wool sweaters have potential for long life and low environmental impact in use, but there are substantial differences between the best, current and worst-case scenarios. Detailed information about garment care and lifespans is needed to understand and reduce environmental impacts. Opportunities exist for consumers to rapidly and dramatically reduce these impacts. The fashion industry can facilitate this through garment design and marketing that promotes and enables long wear life and minimal care.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 291
Author(s):  
Jinpeng Lu ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Hongying Tian ◽  
Jiali Luo

Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) changes play an important role in regulating global climate change, and its variations are controlled by tropopause temperature. This study estimates the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on tropopause temperature by radiative process and further influences on lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). It is found that a 10% depletion in global (mid-low and polar latitudes) tropopause layer ozone causes a significant cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause with a maximum cooling of 0.3 K, and a corresponding reduction in LSWV with a maximum value of 0.06 ppmv. The depletion of tropopause layer ozone at mid-low latitudes results in cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause by radiative processes and a corresponding LSWV reduction. However, the effect of polar tropopause layer ozone depletion on tropical cold-point tropopause temperature and LSWV is opposite to and weaker than the effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion at mid-low latitudes. Finally, the joint effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion (at mid-low and polar latitudes) causes a negative cold-point tropopause temperature and a decreased tropical LSWV. Conversely, the impact of a 10% increase in global tropopause layer ozone on LSWV is exactly the opposite of the impact of ozone depletion. After 2000, tropopause layer ozone decreased at mid-low latitudes and increased at high latitudes. These tropopause layer ozone changes at different latitudes cause joint cooling in the tropical cold-point tropopause and a reduction in LSWV. Clarifying the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on LSWV clearly is important for understanding and predicting SWV changes in the context of future global ozone recovery.


2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAOLA LAIOLO ◽  
JOSÉ L. TELLA

Steppe ecosystems worldwide are affected by agricultural development and generally unprotected. Spanish shrub-steppes contain endangered avifauna, and this paper analyses their state of habitat conservation, the changes that have occurred in the last decade, primary productivity and its relationship with land exploitation and the richness of threatened birds, and avifauna responses to habitat loss. Fifty steppe remnants distributed throughout Spain and inhabited by Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti, an endangered passerine representative of shrub steppe-like habitat, were studied. The study fragments were generally affected by agriculture exploitation, and steppe cover had significantly decreased in several isolated patches during the period 1991–1999. Steppe habitat recovered slightly in areas with low plant productivity indices, and decreased in extent in the most productive areas, in line with EU (European Union) agricultural policy recommendations to abandon marginal land of low productivity. The low overall primary productivity of Iberian steppes opened the way to industrial activities (mining, waste collection and wind-farming), which in the study areas occurred more frequently in steppe than in other habitat types that are more attractive to the public (woodland) or more productive (farmland). The emerging wind industry little affected the study plots, but the presence of anemometers suggests that the impact is likely to increase in the near future, especially in the largest steppelands. Dupont's lark was sensitive to the fragmentation of its habitat; crowding occurred in isolated and small fragments, possibly as a consequence of habitat constraints and species dispersal dynamics. Fragments inhabited by Dupont's lark also hosted other steppe birds with a high conservation value; the community of endangered birds, mostly adapted to arid conditions, was richest in the less productive sites. Only four shrub-steppe fragments are given some kind of protection throughout Spain, testifying to the limited public awareness about the value of this habitat. Urgent action is required to restore this habitat through abandonment of less productive farmland, and to create a network of protected and connected steppelands, in order to assure the long-term viability of steppe specialists and the preservation of a habitat that is unique in Western Europe. This should be coupled to an effort to increase social consciousness of the ecological value of steppes and arid landscapes in general.


2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huib Pellikaan ◽  
Sarah L. de Lange ◽  
Tom W.G. van der Meer

Like many party systems across Western Europe, the Dutch party system has been in flux since 2002 as a result of a series of related developments, including the decline of mainstream parties which coincided with the emergence of radical right-wing populist parties and the concurrent dimensional transformation of the political space. This article analyses how these challenges to mainstream parties fundamentally affected the structure of party competition. On the basis of content analysis of party programmes, we examine the changing configuration of the Dutch party space since 2002 and investigate the impact of these changes on coalition-formation patterns. We conclude that the Dutch party system has become increasingly unstable. It has gradually lost its core through electoral fragmentation and mainstream parties’ positional shifts. The disappearance of a core party that dominates the coalition-formation process initially transformed the direction of party competition from centripetal to centrifugal. However, since 2012 a theoretically novel configuration has emerged in which no party or coherent group of parties dominates competition.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 2222-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Oglesby ◽  
Monica Y. Stephens ◽  
Barry Saltzman

Abstract A coupled mixed layer–atmospheric general circulation model has been used to evaluate the impact of ocean thermocline temperatures (and by proxy those of the deep ocean) on the surface climate of the earth. Particular attention has been devoted to temperature regimes both warmer and cooler than at present. The mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) simulates vertical dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean, including wind mixing and buoyancy effects, and has been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Simulations were made with globally uniform thermocline warmings of +2°, +5°, and +10°C, as well as a globally uniform cooling of −5°C. A simulation was made with latitudinally varying changes in thermocline temperature such that the warming at mid- and high latitudes is much larger than at low latitudes. In all simulations, the response of surface temperature over both land and ocean was larger than that expected just as a result of the imposed thermocline temperature change, largely because of water vapor feedbacks. In this respect, the simulations were similar to those in which only changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were imposed. In fact, when carbon dioxide was explicitly changed along with thermocline temperatures, the results were not much different than if only the thermocline temperatures were altered. Land versus ocean differences are explained largely by latent heat flux differences: the ocean is an infinite evaporative source, while land can be quite dry. The latitudinally varying case has a much larger response at mid- to high latitudes than at low latitudes; the high latitudes actually appear to effectively warm the low latitudes. Simulations exploring scenarios of glacial inception suggest that the deep ocean alone is not likely to be a key trigger but must operate in conjunction with other forcings, such as reduced carbon dioxide. Moist upland regions at mid- and high latitudes, and land regions adjacent to perennial sea ice, are the preferred locations for glacial inception in these runs. Finally, the model combination equilibrates very rapidly, meaning that a large number of simulations can be made for a fairly modest computational cost. A drawback to this is greatly reduced sensitivity to parameters such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which requires a full response of the ocean. Thus, this approach can be considered intermediate between fixing, or prescribing, sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled modeling approach.


Author(s):  
Stanisław Mazur

In the early 1990s, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE countries) saw the collapse of communist regimes and an unprecedented political and economic transformation that resulted in the establishment of democratic, law-governed states and market economies. Administrative reforms, which became an important milestone in this transformation, were considerably influenced both by administrative legacies predominant in the countries and by the Europeanization processes associated with their accession to the European Union. The administrative legacies, which combine elements of various traditions (e.g., German, Napoleonic, and Anglo-American) are still strongly affected by what is left of the communist era. Conversely, the impact of Europeanization processes on public administrations in CEE countries has proved to be much weaker than initially expected. The process of building a professional and apolitical civil service in CEE countries has been plagued by discontinuity and inconsistency, owing to the specific administrative culture of the region, the weakening pressure to modernize EU institutions, and the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis, as well as growing populist tendencies in the region. All these factors encouraged the belief that political control over public administration needs to be tightened in order for the effectiveness and quality of governance mechanisms to be improved. The quality of governance and public management varies widely across the CEE countries. What they have in common—at least to some extent—is the fairly high dynamics of change, including the reversal of the effects of previously implemented reforms. The latter factor may be interpreted as a search for country-specific reform paths, partly due to disappointment with the values and models prevailing in Western Europe, and somewhat as a consequence of growing populist tendencies in the region.


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