scholarly journals Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Shokri ◽  
Amirhossein Hassani ◽  
Adisa Azapagic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Soil Salinity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Water Evaporation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Salt Affected Soils

<p>Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols — leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, EC<sub>e</sub>) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm<sup>2</sup> located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an EC<sub>e</sub> ≥ 4 dS m<sup>-1</sup>. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.</p><p>1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR026707</p><p>2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017–33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117</p>

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

scholarly journals Water resources of Ukraine in the XXI century under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5)

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-122
Author(s):  
N.S. Loboda ◽  
Y.V. Bozhok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Grid Nodes

Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050). The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established. It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible. Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.

scholarly journals Sea-level rise driven soil salinization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Nevermann ◽  
Amir AghaKouchak ◽  
Nima Shokri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Soil Salinity ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Rcp Scenarios

<p>Sea level rise (SLR) is a well-documented aspect of anthropogenic climate change which is primary due to the thermal expansion of seawater and melting of ice caps and glaciers (1). Climate change is expected to exacerbate sea-level rise within the next century, much larger than the observations since the beginning of the recordings. Next to various natural hazards and extreme environmental events such as flooding, the sea level rise poses serious long-standing and possibly irreversible consequences on human timescales in coastal regions. For example, soil salinity is expected to increase near shorelines due to sea level rise. Soil salinization, referring to excess accumulation of salt in soil, is a global problem (2) adversely affecting many environmental and hydrologic processes such as terrestrial ecosystem functioning, water cycle and biodiversity. SLRs shift the saltwater-freshwater boundary in coastal regions which will increase the risk of soil salinization further inland. Considering the growing population living in coastal regions, SLR-driven soil salinization has a severe socio-economic impact posing significant threat to farmlands, wetlands, coastal marshes, forests and other ecosystems. Motivated by the importance of the interaction between SLR, climate change and soil salinization, this study aims to determine how the saltwater-freshwater interface moves under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in coastal regions. Groundwater data of coastal wells, Digital Elevation Model’s and satellite images will be used to highlight areas under high risk of soil salinization. The results will enable us to quantify the possible extent of the soil salinization as a result of SLR under different climate scenarios with the associated socio-economic consequences. Such information could support decision making and sustainable resource management under different RCPs.</p><p>1. Moftakhari H.M., Salvadori G., AghaKouchak A., Sanders, B.F., Matthew, R.A. (2017). Compounding Effects of Sea Level Rise and Fluvial Flooding. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 114 (37), 9785-9790.</p><p>2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117 (52) 33017-33027.</p>

scholarly journals Linking Long-Term Changes in Soil Salinity to Paddy Land Abandonment in Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Tharani Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Soil Salinity ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Paddy Land ◽  
Semi Arid Region

Soil salinity is a serious threat to coastal agriculture and has resulted in a significant reduction in agricultural output in many regions. Jaffna Peninsula, a semi-arid region located in the northern-most part of Sri Lanka, is also a victim of the adverse effects of coastal salinity. This study investigated long-term soil salinity changes and their link with agricultural land use changes, especially paddy land. Two Landsat images from 1988 and 2019 were used to map soil salinity distribution and changes. Another set of images was analyzed at four temporal periods to map abandoned paddy lands. A comparison of changes in soil salinity with abandoned paddy lands showed that abandoned paddy lands had significantly higher salinity than active paddy lands, confirming that increasing salts owing to the high levels of sea water intrusion in the soils, as well as higher water salinity in wells used for irrigation, could be the major drivers of degradation of paddy lands. The results also showed that there was a dramatic increase in soil salinity (1.4-fold) in the coastal lowlands of Jaffna Peninsula. 64.6% of the salinity-affected land was identified as being in the extreme saline category. In addition to reducing net arable lands, soil salinization has serious implications for food security and the livelihoods of farmers, potentially impacting the regional and national economy.

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
pp. 148515
Author(s):  
Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽  
María Máñez Costa ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
Uwe Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Aakkula ◽  
Stefan Fronzek ◽  
Janne Helin ◽  
Mikael Hildén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

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