Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850-2100 

Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  

<p>Stratospheric ozone and water vapor are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial (1850) to the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ~300 DU in 1850 to ~305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960’s values by the middle of the 21<sup>st</sup> century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ~10 DU higher than the 1960’s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960’s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960’s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ~0.5 ppmv at 70hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ~0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. The largest increases (~2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, and to a lesser extent TCO, show large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.</p>

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 5015-5061
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Birgit Hassler ◽  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Ramiro Checa-Garcia ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre- industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Kroll ◽  
Alon Azulay ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck

<p><span>Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is important not only for stratospheric ozone chemistry but also due to its influence on the atmospheric radiation budget.</span></p><p><span>After volcanic eruptions, SWV is known to increase due to two different mechanisms: First, water within the volcanic plume is directly injected into the stratosphere during the eruption itself. Second, the volcanic aerosols lead to a warming of the lower stratosphere including the tropopause layer. The increased temperature of the cold point allows an increased water vapor transit from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Not much is known about this process as it is obscured by internal variability and observations are scare.</span></p><p><span>To better understand the increased SWV entry via the indirect pathway after volcanic eruptions we employ a suite of large volcanically perturbed ensemble simulations of the MPI-ESM1.2-LR for five different eruptions strengths (2.5 Mt, 5 Mt, 10 Mt, 20 Mt and 40 Mt sulfur). Each ensemble consists of 100 realizations for a time period of 3 years.</span></p><p><span>Our work mainly focuses on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) quantifying changes in relevant parameters such as the atmospheric temperature profile and the consequent increase in SWV. A maximum increase of up to 4 ppmm in the first two years after the eruption is found in the case of the 40 Mt eruption. Furthermore the large ensemble size additionally allows for an analysis of the statistical significance and influence of variability, showing that SWV increases can already be detected for the 2.5 Mt eruption in the ensemble mean, for single ensemble members the internal variability dominates the SWV entry up to an eruption strength of 10 Mt to 20 Mt depending on the season and time after the eruption. The study is complemented by investigations using the 1D radiative convective equilibrium model konrad to understand the radiative effects of the SWV increase.</span></p>


2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 6559-6602 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stenke ◽  
V. Grewe

Abstract. A transient model simulation from 1960 to 2000 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM) shows a stratospheric water vapor trend during the last two decades of +0.7 ppmv and additionally a short-term increase during volcanic eruptions. At the same time this model simulation shows a long-term decrease in total ozone and a short-term tropical ozone decline after a volcanic eruption. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations have been performed with the CCM with the water vapor perturbations fed only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months have been simulated. Since water vapor acts as an in-situ source of odd hydrogen in the stratosphere, the water vapor perturbations affect the gas-phase chemistry of hydrogen oxides. An additional water vapor amount of +1 ppmv results in a 5–10%  increase. Coupling processes between and / also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The  cycle becomes 6.4% more effective, whereas the cycle is 1.6% less effective. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect the gas-phase chemistry, but also the heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The additional water vapor intensifies the strong denitrification of the Antarctic winter stratosphere caused by an enhanced formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Thus it further facilitates the catalytic ozone removal by the cycle. The reduction of total column ozone during Antarctic spring peaks at −3%. In contrast, heterogeneous chemistry during Arctic winter is not affected by the water vapor increase. The short-term perturbation studies show similar patterns, but because of the short perturbation time, the chemical effect on ozone is almost negligible. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the simulated long-term ozone decline in the transient model simulation can be explained by the water vapor increase, but the simulated tropical ozone decrease after volcanic eruptions is caused dynamically rather than chemically.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1257-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stenke ◽  
V. Grewe

Abstract. A transient model simulation of the 40-year time period 1960 to 1999 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM) ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM shows a stratospheric water vapor increase over the last two decades of 0.7 ppmv and, additionally, a short-term increase after major volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, a long-term decrease in global total ozone as well as a short-term ozone decline in the tropics after volcanic eruptions are modeled. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on lower stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations were performed with the CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM feeding the water vapor perturbations only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of lower stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months were applied. An additional stratospheric water vapor amount of 1 ppmv results in a 5–10% OH increase in the tropical lower stratosphere between 100 and 30 hPa. As a direct consequence of the OH increase the ozone destruction by the HOx cycle becomes 6.4% more effective. Coupling processes between the HOx-family and the NOx/ClOx-family also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The NOx cycle becomes 1.6% less effective, whereas the effectiveness of the ClOx cycle is again slightly enhanced. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect gas-phase chemistry, but also heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The model results indicate an enhanced heterogeneous ozone depletion during antarctic spring due to a longer PSC existence period. In contrast, PSC formation in the northern hemisphere polar vortex and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion during arctic spring are not affected by the water vapor increase, because of the less PSC activity. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the global total ozone decline in the transient model run can be explained by the modeled water vapor increase, but the simulated tropical ozone decrease after volcanic eruptions is caused dynamically rather than chemically.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 16729-16745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Kaufmann ◽  
Christiane Voigt ◽  
Romy Heller ◽  
Tina Jurkat-Witschas ◽  
Martina Krämer ◽  
...  

Abstract. Accurate measurement of water vapor in the climate-sensitive region near the tropopause is very challenging. Unexplained systematic discrepancies between measurements at low water vapor mixing ratios made by different instruments on airborne platforms have limited our ability to adequately address a number of relevant scientific questions on the humidity distribution, cloud formation and climate impact in that region. Therefore, during the past decade, the scientific community has undertaken substantial efforts to understand these discrepancies and improve the quality of water vapor measurements. This study presents a comprehensive intercomparison of airborne state-of-the-art in situ hygrometers deployed on board the DLR (German Aerospace Center) research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) during the Midlatitude CIRRUS (ML-CIRRUS) campaign conducted in 2014 over central Europe. The instrument intercomparison shows that the hygrometer measurements agree within their combined accuracy (±10 % to 15 %, depending on the humidity regime); total mean values agree within 2.5 %. However, systematic differences on the order of 10 % and up to a maximum of 15 % are found for mixing ratios below 10 parts per million (ppm) H2O. A comparison of relative humidity within cirrus clouds does not indicate a systematic instrument bias in either water vapor or temperature measurements in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, in situ measurements are compared to model data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which are interpolated along the ML-CIRRUS flight tracks. We find a mean agreement within ±10 % throughout the troposphere and a significant wet bias in the model on the order of 100 % to 150 % in the stratosphere close to the tropopause. Consistent with previous studies, this analysis indicates that the model deficit is mainly caused by too weak of a humidity gradient at the tropopause.


1974 ◽  
Vol 52 (8) ◽  
pp. 1527-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Mastenbrook

Nearly 10 years of water-vapor measurements to heights of 30 km provide a basis for assessing the natural concentration of stratospheric water vapor and its variability. The measurements which began in 1964 have been made at monthly intervals from the mid-latitude location of Washington, D.C, using a balloon-borne frost-point hygrometer. The observations show the mixing ratio of water-vapor mass to air mass in the stratosphere to be in the general range of 1 to 4 p.p.m. with a modal concentration between 2 and 3 p.p.m. An annual cycle of mixing ratio is evident for the low stratosphere. A trend of water-vapor increase observed during the first 6 years does not persist beyond 1969 or 1970. The 6 year increase was followed by a marked decrease in 1971, with mixing ratios remaining generally below 3 p.p.m. thereafter. The measurements of recent years suggest that the series of observations may have begun during a period of low water-vapor concentration in the stratosphere.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Uwe Eichmann ◽  
Mark Weber ◽  
Klaus-Peter Heue ◽  
John P. Burrows

<p>The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), on board the Sentinel 5 precursor (S5p) satellite, was launched in October 2017. The TROPOMI instrument has high spatial resolution and daily coverage of the Earth. About two years of level 2 data (version 1.1.5/1.1.7) of ozone and cloud properties (fraction and height) are available. Using the OFFL GODFIT ozone and OCRA/ROCINN CRB cloud dataset, we derived tropical tropospheric ozone using the convective cloud differential method for tropical tropospheric column ozone (TTCO) [DU] and the cloud slicing method for upper tropospheric ozone volume mixing ratios (TUTO) [ppbv].</p><p>The CCD algorithm was optimized for TROPOMI with respect to the reference sector Above Cloud Column Ozone field (ACCO). It was adjusted in time and latitude space in order to reduce data gaps in the daily ACCO vectors. Also, daily total ozone maps were used to minimize the error in stratospheric ozone differences.</p><p>The CHOVA algorithm (Cloud Height induced Ozone Variation Analysis) was developed to fully exploit with the S5p instruments characteristics. A temporal sampling of cloud/ozone data is not necessary for the high amount of S5p measurements. The spatial sampling is 2° latitude/longitude grid boxes. CHOVA results are quality checked based on the statistical properties of cloud, ozone and retrieval parameters to exclude unreliable TUTO values.</p><p>Comparisons with ozone sondes show a good agreement for both methods taking into account the principal differences between a sonde point measurement and a satellite sampled mean value. </p><p>The work on TROPOMI/S5P geophysical products is funded by ESA and national contributions from the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and Finland.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 8433-8446 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. Schoeberl ◽  
A. E. Dessler

Abstract. Domain filling, forward trajectory calculations are used to examine the global dehydration processes that control stratospheric water vapor. As with most Lagrangian models of this type, water vapor is instantaneously removed from the parcel to keep the relative humidity (RH) with respect to ice from exceeding saturation or a specified super-saturation value. We also test a simple parameterization of stratospheric convective moistening through ice lofting and the effect of gravity waves as a mechanism that can augment dehydration. Comparing diabatic and kinematic trajectories driven by the MERRA reanalysis, we find that, unlike the results from Liu et al. (2010), the additional transport due to the vertical velocity "noise" in the kinematic calculation creates too dry a stratosphere and a too diffuse a water-vapor tape recorder signal compared observations. We also show that the kinematically driven parcels are more likely to encounter the coldest tropopause temperatures than the diabatic trajectories. The diabatic simulations produce stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios close to that observed by Aura's Microwave Limb Sounder and are consistent with the MERRA tropical tropopause temperature biases. Convective moistening, which will increase stratospheric HDO, also increases stratospheric water vapor while the addition of parameterized gravity waves does the opposite. We find that while the Tropical West Pacific is the dominant dehydration location, but dehydration over Tropical South America is also important. Antarctica makes a small contribution to the overall stratospheric water vapor budget as well by releasing very dry air into the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere following the break up of the winter vortex.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 30055-30087 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Felker ◽  
J. L. Moody ◽  
A. J. Wimmers ◽  
G. Osterman ◽  
K. Bowman

Abstract. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the Aura satellite, retrieves a vertical profile of tropospheric ozone. However, polar-orbiting instruments like TES provide limited nadir-view coverage. This work illustrates the value of these observations when taken in context with information about synoptic-scale weather patterns. The goal of this study is to create map-view products of upper troposphere (UT) ozone through the integration of TES ozone measurements with two synoptic dynamical tracers of stratospheric influence: specific humidity derived from the GOES Imager, and potential vorticity from an operational forecast model. As a mixing zone between tropospheric and stratospheric reservoirs, the upper troposphere (UT) exhibits a complex chemical makeup. Determination of ozone mixing ratios in this layer is especially difficult without direct in-situ measurement. However, it is well understood that UT ozone is correlated with dynamical tracers like low specific humidity and high potential vorticity. Blending the advantages of two remotely sensed quantities (GOES water vapor and TES ozone) is at the core of the Multi-sensor Upper Tropospheric Ozone Product (MUTOP). Our approach results in the temporal and spatial coverage of a geostationary platform, a major improvement over individual polar overpasses, while retaining TES's ability to characterize UT ozone. Results suggest that over 70% of TES-observed UT ozone variability can be explained by correlation with the two dynamical tracers. MUTOP reproduces TES retrievals across the GOES-West domain with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 19.2 ppbv. There are several advantages to this multi-sensor derived product approach: (1) it is calculated from 2 operational fields (GOES specific humidity and GFS PV), so the layer-average ozone can be created and used in near real-time; (2) the product provides the spatial resolution and coverage of a geostationary platform as it depicts the distribution of dynamically driven ozone in the UT; and (3) the 6 h temporal resolution of the imagery allows for the visualization of rapid movement of this dynamically-driven ozone in the UT. This paper presents the scientific basis and methodology behind the creation of this unique ozone product, as well as a statistical comparison of the derived product to a set of coincident TES observations.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document