Amplified Arctic precipitation increases are driven by atmospheric radiative cooling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Pithan ◽  
Thomas Jung
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Local Warming ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p>As the climate warms, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by about 7 % per K, following the clausius-clapeyron relation. Globally averaged precipitation only increases by about 1-2 % per K of warming, as it is constrained by the atmospheric energy budget rather than the availability of moisture in the atmosphere. In the Tropics, zonally averaged precipitation mostly increases in the ITCZ near the equator and decreases in the subtropical dry zones (rich get richer, poor get poorer). A fundamental explanation of extratropical precipitation change has yet to be provided.</p><p>Here, we show that the structure of zonal mean mid-latitude precipitation changes is largely controlled by circulation changes, whereas amplified Arctic precipitation change is linked to increased atmospheric radiative cooling. The relative change in precipitation per unit of local warming is greater at high latitudes than anywhere else.</p>

Thermodynamic Scaling of the Hydrological Cycle of the Last Glacial Maximum

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 992-1006 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Boos
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Circulation Changes ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract In climate models subject to greenhouse gas–induced warming, vertically integrated water vapor increases at nearly the same rate as its saturation value. Previous studies showed that this increase dominates circulation changes in climate models, so that precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) decreases in the subtropics and increases in the tropics and high latitudes at a rate consistent with a Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. This study examines whether the same thermodynamic scaling describes differences in the hydrological cycle between modern times and the last glacial maximum (LGM), as simulated by a suite of coupled ocean–atmosphere models. In these models, changes in water vapor between modern and LGM climates do scale with temperature according to Clausius–Clapeyron, but this thermodynamic scaling provides a poorer description of the changes in P − E. While the scaling is qualitatively consistent with simulations in the zonal mean, predicting higher P − E in the subtropics and lower P − E in the tropics and high latitudes, it fails to account for high-amplitude zonal asymmetries. Large horizontal gradients of temperature change, which are often neglected when applying the scaling to next-century warming, are shown to be important in large parts of the extratropics. However, even with this correction the thermodynamic scaling provides a poor quantitative fit to the simulations. This suggests that circulation changes play a dominant role in regional hydrological change between modern and LGM climates. Changes in transient eddy moisture transports are shown to be particularly important, even in the deep tropics. Implications for the selection and interpretation of climate proxies are discussed.

scholarly journals Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (23) ◽  
pp. 9641-9657 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. B. Richardson ◽  
P. M. Forster ◽  
T. Andrews ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
G. Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Hydrological Sensitivity ◽  
Limited Moisture ◽  
Precipitation Changes

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Global carbonyl sulfide (OCS) measured by MIPAS/Envisat during 2002–2012

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Glatthor ◽  
Michael Höpfner ◽  
Adrian Leyser ◽  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Emission Spectra ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We present a global OCS data set covering the period June 2002 to April 2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite. The vertical resolution is 4–5 km in the height region 6–15 km and 15 km at 40 km altitude. The total estimated error amounts to 40–50 pptv between 10 and 20 km and to 120 pptv at 40 km altitude. MIPAS OCS data show no systematic bias with respect to balloon observations, with deviations mostly below ±50 pptv. However, they are systematically higher than the OCS volume mixing ratios of the ACE-FTS instrument on SCISAT, with maximum deviations of up to 100 pptv in the altitude region 13–16 km. The data set of MIPAS OCS exhibits only moderate interannual variations and low interhemispheric differences. Average concentrations at 10 km altitude range from 480 pptv at high latitudes to 500–510 pptv in the tropics and at northern mid-latitudes. Seasonal variations at 10 km altitude amount up to 35 pptv in the northern and up to 15 pptv in the southern hemisphere. Northern hemispheric OCS abundances at 10 km altitude peak in June in the tropics and around October at high latitudes, while the respective southern hemispheric maxima were observed in July and in November. Global OCS distributions at 250 hPa (~ 10–11 km) show enhanced values at low latitudes, peaking during boreal summer above the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, which indicates oceanic release. Further, a region of depleted OCS amounts extending from Brazil to central and southern Africa was detected at this altitude, which is most pronounced in austral summer. This depletion is related to seasonally varying vegetative uptake by the tropical forests. Typical signatures of biomass burning like the southern hemispheric biomass burning plume are not visible in MIPAS data, indicating that this process is only a minor source of tropospheric OCS. At the 150 hPa level (~ 13–14 km) enhanced amounts of OCS were also observed inside the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone, but this enhancement is not especially outstanding as compared to other low latitude regions at the same altitude. At the 80 hPa level (~ 17–18 km) equatorward transport of mid-latitude air masses containing lower OCS amounts around the summertime anticyclones was observed. A significant trend could not be detected in tropospheric MIPAS OCS amounts, which points to globally balanced sources and sinks.

scholarly journals Evaluation of MUSICA IASI tropospheric water vapour profiles using theoretical error assessments and comparisons to GRUAN Vaisala RS92 measurements

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4981-5006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Borger ◽  
Matthias Schneider ◽  
Benjamin Ertl ◽  
Frank Hase ◽  
Omaira E. García ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Systematic Difference ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract. Volume mixing ratio water vapour profiles have been retrieved from IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) spectra using the MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water) processor. The retrievals are done for IASI observations that coincide with Vaisala RS92 radiosonde measurements performed in the framework of the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) in three different climate zones: the tropics (Manus Island, 2° S), mid-latitudes (Lindenberg, 52° N), and polar regions (Sodankylä, 67° N). The retrievals show good sensitivity with respect to the vertical H2O distribution between 1 km above ground and the upper troposphere. Typical DOFS (degrees of freedom for signal) values are about 5.6 for the tropics, 5.1 for summertime mid-latitudes, 3.8 for wintertime mid-latitudes, and 4.4 for summertime polar regions. The errors of the MUSICA IASI water vapour profiles have been theoretically estimated considering the contribution of many different uncertainty sources. For all three climate regions, unrecognized cirrus clouds and uncertainties in atmospheric temperature have been identified as the most important error sources and they can reach about 25 %. The MUSICA IASI water vapour profiles have been compared to 100 individual coincident GRUAN water vapour profiles. The systematic difference between the data is within 11 % below 12 km altitude; however, at higher altitudes the MUSICA IASI data show a dry bias with respect to the GRUAN data of up to 21 %. The scatter is largest close to the surface (30 %), but never exceeds 21 % above 1 km altitude. The comparison study documents that the MUSICA IASI retrieval processor provides H2O profiles that capture the large variations in H2O volume mixing ratio profiles well from 1 km above ground up to altitudes close to the tropopause. Above 5 km the observed scatter with respect to GRUAN data is in reasonable agreement with the combined MUSICA IASI and GRUAN random errors. The increased scatter at lower altitudes might be explained by surface emissivity uncertainties at the summertime continental sites of Lindenberg and Sodankylä, and the upper tropospheric dry bias might suggest deficits in correctly modelling the spectroscopic line shapes of water vapour.

scholarly journals Mean precipitation change from a deepening troposphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (45) ◽  
pp. 11465-11470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadir Jeevanjee ◽  
David M. Romps
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Simple Theory ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Global Mean

Global climate models robustly predict that global mean precipitation should increase at roughly 2–3%K−1, but the origin of these values is not well understood. Here we develop a simple theory to help explain these values. This theory combines the well-known radiative constraint on precipitation, which says that condensation heating from precipitation is balanced by the net radiative cooling of the free troposphere, with an invariance of radiative cooling profiles when expressed in temperature coordinates. These two constraints yield a picture in which mean precipitation is controlled primarily by the depth of the troposphere, when measured in temperature coordinates. We develop this theory in idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium and also demonstrate its applicability to global climate models.

scholarly journals Upper tropospheric water vapour variability at high latitudes – Part 1: Influence of the annular modes

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 22291-22329 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Sioris ◽  
J. Zou ◽  
D. A. Plummer ◽  
C. D. Boone ◽  
C. T. McElroy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes

Abstract. Seasonal and monthly zonal medians of water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are calculated for both Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) instruments for the northern and southern high-latitude regions (60–90 and 60–90° S). Chosen for the purpose of observing high-latitude processes, the ACE orbit provides sampling of both regions in eight of 12 months of the year, with coverage in all seasons. The ACE water vapour sensors, namely MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation) and the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are currently the only satellite instruments that can probe from the lower stratosphere down to the mid-troposphere to study the vertical profile of the response of UTLS water vapour to the annular modes. The Arctic oscillation (AO), also known as the northern annular mode (NAM), explains 64 % (r = −0.80) of the monthly variability in water vapour at northern high-latitudes observed by ACE-MAESTRO between 5 and 7 km using only winter months (January to March 2004–2013). Using a seasonal timestep and all seasons, 45 % of the variability is explained by the AO at 6.5 ± 0.5 km, similar to the 46 % value obtained for southern high latitudes at 7.5 ± 0.5 km explained by the Antarctic oscillation or southern annular mode (SAM). A large negative AO event in March 2013 produced the largest relative water vapour anomaly at 5.5 km (+70 %) over the ACE record. A similarly large event in the 2010 boreal winter, which was the largest negative AO event in the record (1950–2015), led to > 50 % increases in water vapour observed by MAESTRO and ACE-FTS at 7.5 km.

The Freshening of Surface Waters in High Latitudes: Effects on the Thermohaline and Wind-Driven Circulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 896-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Fedorov ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Giulio Boccaletti ◽  
Ronald Pacanowski ◽  
S. George Philander
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The impacts of a freshening of surface waters in high latitudes on the deep, slow, thermohaline circulation have received enormous attention, especially the possibility of a shutdown in the meridional overturning that involves sinking of surface waters in the northern Atlantic Ocean. A recent study by Fedorov et al. has drawn attention to the effects of a freshening on the other main component of the oceanic circulation—the swift, shallow, wind-driven circulation that varies on decadal time scales and is closely associated with the ventilated thermocline. That circulation too involves meridional overturning, but its variations and critical transitions affect mainly the Tropics. A surface freshening in mid- to high latitudes can deepen the equatorial thermocline to such a degree that temperatures along the equator become as warm in the eastern part of the basin as they are in the west, the tropical zonal sea surface temperature gradient virtually disappears, and permanently warm conditions prevail in the Tropics. In a model that has both the wind-driven and thermohaline components of the circulation, which factors determine the relative effects of a freshening on the two components and its impact on climate? Studies with an idealized ocean general circulation model find that vertical diffusivity is one of the critical parameters that affect the relative strength of the two circulation components and hence their response to a freshening. The spatial structure of the freshening and imposed meridional temperature gradients are other important factors.

scholarly journals Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1391-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Scherer ◽  
H. Vömel ◽  
S. Fueglistaler ◽  
S. J. Oltmans ◽  
J. Staehelin
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Corrected Data ◽  
Instrumental Bias ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE). Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km), the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.

Robustness of Dynamical Feedbacks from Radiative Forcing: 2% Solar versus 2 × CO2 Experiments in an Idealized GCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 2256-2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Cai ◽  
Ka-Kit Tung
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Heating Profile

Abstract Despite the differences in the spatial patterns of the external forcing associated with a doubling CO2 and with a 2% solar variability, the final responses in the troposphere and at the surface in a three-dimensional general circulation model appear remarkably similar. Various feedback processes are diagnosed and compared using the climate feedback–response analysis method (CFRAM) to understand the mechanisms responsible. At the surface, solar radiative forcing is stronger in the tropics than at the high latitudes, whereas greenhouse radiative forcing is stronger at high latitudes compared with the tropics. Also solar forcing is positive everywhere in the troposphere and greenhouse radiative forcing is positive mainly in the lower troposphere. The water vapor feedback strengthens the upward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the tropics and the poleward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the lower troposphere. The “evaporative” and convective feedbacks play an important role only in the tropics where they act to reduce the warming at the surface and lower troposphere in favor of upper-troposphere warming. Both water vapor feedback and enhancement of convection in the tropics further strengthen the initial poleward-decreasing profile of energy flux convergence perturbations throughout the troposphere. As a result, the large-scale dynamical poleward energy transport, which acts on the negative temperature gradient, is enhanced in both cases, contributing to a polar amplification of warming aloft and a warming reduction in the tropics. The dynamical amplification of polar atmospheric warming also contributes additional warming to the surface below via downward thermal radiation.

scholarly journals Precipitation Intensity Changes in the Tropics from Observations and Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 4775-4790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guojun Gu ◽  
Robert F. Adler
Keyword(s):  
Phase Shift ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Decadal Shift ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
The Impact

Tropical (30°N–30°S) interdecadal precipitation changes and trends are explored for the satellite era using GPCP monthly analyses and CMIP5 outputs and focusing on precipitation intensity distributions represented by percentiles (Pct) and other parameters. Positive trends occur for the upper percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th), and become statistically significant for Pct ≥ 80th. Negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (~20th–65th) and are statistically significant for the 20th–40th percentiles. As part of these trends there is a decadal shift around 1998, indicating the presence of an interdecadal [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] signal. For the lower percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), positive trends occur, although weakly. The AMIP-type simulations generally show similar trend results for their respective time periods. Precipitation intensity changes are further examined using four precipitation categories based on the climatological percentiles: Wet (Pct ≥ 70th), Intermediate (70th > Pct ≥ 30th), Dry (30th > Pct ≥ 5th), and No Rain (5th > Pct ≥ 0th). Epoch differences of occurrence frequency between 1988–97 and 1998–2015 have spatial features generally reflecting the combined effect of the PDO and external forcings, specifically the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)-related warming based on comparisons with both AMIP and CMIP results. Furthermore, precipitation intensity over Wet zones shows much stronger changes than mean precipitation including a more prominent change around 1998 associated with the PDO phase shift. Trends also appear in the sizes of Intermediate and Dry zones, especially over ocean. However, changes in the sizes of Wet and No Rain zones are generally weak. AMIP simulations reproduce these changes relatively well. Comparisons with the CMIP5 historical experiments further confirm that the observed changes and trends are a combination of the effect of the PDO phase shift and the impact of anthropogenic GHG-related warming.

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