Seesaw of Precipitation Variability over Anatolian Peninsula between LGM and Future Projections: A Possible Role of Wind Direction Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
burcu boza ◽  
yasemin ezber ◽  
ömer l. şen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Anatolian Peninsula

<p>Turkey is a part of Eastern Mediterranean and located between 36-42° North latitudes and 26-45° East longitudes, where Europe meets Asia. The country, which mostly comprises the Anatolian Peninsula, is unique in terms of geographical position and topography and occupies a region which is highly sensitive to climate change. Considering that the region is prone to drying as a result of climate change, inferences about future precipitation patterns is of value.</p><p>Studies conducted by cosmogenic surface dating of boulder moraines revealed that, during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 Ka), the precipitation at the southwest of Anatolian Peninsula was higher than today, and at the northeast it was lower than today, which implies a regional heterogeneity. On the other hand, future projections of precipitation point out reverse conditions. That is, there will be lower (higher) than today precipitation at the southwest (northeast) of the country. Namely, a seesaw of precipitation variability prevails between cold climate of LGM and warm climate of future.</p><p>As a highland located at mid-latitudes, Anatolian Peninsula takes most of the precipitation during winter. What mainly drives the changes in winter precipitation is the changes in atmospheric circulation. Model simulations reveal a southward and northward displacement of polar jet stream and consistent shifts of storm tracks during LGM and in the future respectively. Knowing this fact, we investigated directions of winds which carry precipitation into Anatolian Peninsula, for the sake of explaining the dominant regional mechanism related to abovementioned seesaw pattern of precipitation.</p><p>We utilized monthly 850 hPa wind and precipitation data from the outputs of CCSM4.0 model of CMIP5 project and analyzed winds for past (LGM), present time and future conditions. Considering that it produces opposite conditions with comparable magnitudes with LGM, we used the RCP8.5 scenario. We found out that the 850 hPa winds entering from west into the peninsula are becoming more zonal (less tilted) as time passes from LGM to future. In other words, southwesterly winds evolve into westerly ones with a slight clockwise change of wind direction. This change considered together with orography of the peninsula explains the seesaw of precipitation variability over Anatolian Peninsula between cold and warm phases of global climate.</p>

scholarly journals Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the eastern Mediterranean Sea

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1478-1484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionysios E. Raitsos ◽  
Gregory Beaugrand ◽  
Dimitrios Georgopoulos ◽  
Argyro Zenetos ◽  
Antonietta M. Pancucci-Papadopoulou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Sea

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone over three centuries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 6805-6843 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
A. Gross ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
W. May ◽  
H. Skov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic

Abstract. The ozone chemistry over three centuries has been simulated based on climate prediction from a global climate model and constant anthropogenic emissions in order to separate out the effects on air pollution from climate change. Four decades in different centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology predicted by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in both meteorology, ozone and its precursors is found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is predicted to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is predicted at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in transport. The change in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing with respect to changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

Nature ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 416 (6881) ◽  
pp. 626-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Townsend Peterson ◽  
Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta ◽  
Jeremy Bartley ◽  
Victor Sánchez-Cordero ◽  
Jorge Soberón ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Projections

scholarly journals Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy R. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Study Region

Future changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global and regional climate change are of increasing concern to policy makers, planners and the public. However, predictions of these changes are uncertain. In the absence of single, firm predictions, the next best approach is to identify sets of plausible future conditions termed scenarios. This paper focuses on the development of climate change scenarios for northern high latitude regions. Three methods of scenario development can be identified; use of analogues having conditions similar to those expected in the study region, application of general circulation model results, and composite methods that combine information from different sources. A composite approach has been used to produce scenarios of temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide and sea-level change for Finland up to 2100, as part of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Tools for applying these scenarios in impact assessment studies, including stochastic weather generators and spatial downscaling techniques, are also examined. The SILMU scenarios attempt to capture uncertainties both in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and in the global climate response to these emissions. Two types of scenario were developed: (i) simple “policy-oriented” scenarios and (ii) detailed “scientific” scenarios. These are compared with new model estimates of future climate and recent observed changes in climate over certain high latitude regions.

scholarly journals Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 3341-3349 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Crosbie ◽  
D. W. Pollock ◽  
F. S. Mpelasoka ◽  
O. V. Barron ◽  
S. P. Charles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Australian Continent

Abstract. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050) relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by – tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1%; – arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7%; – temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2%; – cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001%. Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from temperate to arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. A transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff.

scholarly journals The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 67-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. O. Krichak ◽  
P. Alpert ◽  
K. Bassat ◽  
P. Kunin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Change Simulation ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Major Factors

Abstract. Two configurations of RegCM3 regional climate model (RCM) have been used to downscale results of two atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations of the current (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100) over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region. The RCM domain covering the EM region from northern Africa to central part of Asia Minor with grid spacing of 50 km was used. Three sets of RCM simulations were completed. Results of the RCM experiment support earlier projections of a temperature (annual precipitation) increase (decrease) to the end of 21st century over the EM. The roles of several major factors in controlling uncertainty of the climate change estimates are evaluated. The main uncertainty factors appear to be associated with possible inadequacies in RCM description of the EM-climate-controlling developments over remotely located areas as well as those in the simulations of the global climate and its trends by the AOGCMs.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Air Quality: The Portuguese Case

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-208
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Photochemical Pollution

The changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions are expected to lead to regional and global changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community. Regional differences in climate change and its impacts have recently been identified as current gaps in the present scientific knowledge. Air quality regional impacts of global climate change, namely the effects on photochemical production, are not a common subject of scientific studies. The main objective of this paper is to provide a basis of scientific information for policy makers and public use by the assessment of the vulnerability of Portuguese air quality to climate change. A General Circulation Model was applied in order to provide initial and driving meteorological boundary conditions, assuming a present climate situation and a scenario of double carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, for higher resolution mesometeorological and photochemical models. Results emphasise a possible significant impact of the climate change scenario on the photochemical pollution, namely at noon.

scholarly journals Incorporation of Long Term Climate Changes in Hydrological Modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 4521-4526
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Statistical Relationships

One of climate change's most important concerns at the moment is its impact on hydrology as it has direct links with agriculture, vegetation, and livelihood. This study tries to analyze potential future climate change in the Kumaradhara river basin. This study involved three steps: (1) acquiring and using general circulation model (GCM) to project future global climate scenarios; (2) establishing statistical relationships between GCM data and observed data using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM); (3) downscaling the second generation Canadian Earth system Model (CanESM2)GCM output based on the established statistical relationship. The statistical downscaling is carried out for three scenarios used in the fifth evaluation report of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) viz., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The statistical downscaling Model (SDSM) results showed that the mean annual daily precipitation is altered in the basin under all the scenarios but it will be different in different time periods depending on scenarios and the basin will experience the reduced precipitation levels in summer. Also the precipitation will marginally rise in all the time slices with reference to baseline data. We can conclude from the results that this region's climate will affect future farming as the availability of water is bound to change. This study should, however, be followed up by a larger study incorporating multiple CMIP5 models such that changes in hydrological-regimes can be examined appropriately.

scholarly journals Climatology of Borneo Vortices in the HadGEM3-GC31 General Circulation Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-61
Author(s):  
Ju Liang ◽  
Jennifer L. Catto ◽  
Matthew Hawcroft ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Mouleong Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Hadley Centre

AbstractBorneo Vortices (BVs) are intense precipitating winter storms that develop over the equatorial South China Sea and strongly affect the weather and climate over the western Maritime Continent due to their association with deep convection and heavy rainfall. In this study, the ability of the HadGEM3-GC31 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 - Global Coupled vn. 3.1) global climate model to simulate the climatology of BVs at different horizontal resolutions are examined using an objective feature tracking algorithm. The HadGEM3-GC31 at the N512 ( 25 km) horizontal resolution simulates BVs with well-represented characteristics, including their frequency, spatial distribution and their lower-tropospheric structures when compared with BVs identified in a climate reanalysis, whereas the BVs in the N96 (∼135 km) and N216 (∼65 km) simulations are much weaker and less frequent. Also, the N512 simulation better captures the contribution of BVs to the winter precipitation in Borneo and Malay Peninsula compared with precipitation from a reanalysis data and from observations, while the N96 and N216 simulations underestimate this contribution due to the overly weak low-level convergence of the simulated BVs. The N512 simulation also exhibits an improved ability to reproduce the modulation of BV activity by the occurrence of northeasterly cold surges and active phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation in the region, including increased BV track densities, intensities and lifetimes. A sufficiently high model resolution is thus found to be important to realistically simulate the present-climate precipitation extremes associated with BVs and to study their possible changes in a warmer climate.

scholarly journals Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 7415-7440 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Crosbie ◽  
D. W. Pollock ◽  
F. S. Mpelasoka ◽  
O. V. Barron ◽  
S. P. Charles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Australian Continent

Abstract. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050) relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by: – Tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1% – Arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7% – Temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2% – Cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001%. Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from Temperate to Arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. For a transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland this would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff.

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