CME arrival time predictions with a deformable front

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Hinterreiter ◽  
Tanja Amerstorfer ◽  
Martin A. Reiss ◽  
Andreas J. Weiss ◽  
Christian Möstl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Model Combination ◽  
First Results ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

<p>We present the first results of our newly developed CME arrival prediction model, which allows the CME front to deform and adapt to the changing solar wind conditions. Our model is based on ELEvoHI and makes use of the WSA/HUX (Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation) model combination, which computes large-scale ambient solar wind conditions in the interplanetary space. With an estimate of the solar wind speed and density, we are able to account for the drag exerted on different parts of the CME front. Initially, our model relies on heliospheric imager observations to confine an elliptical CME front and to obtain an initial speed and drag parameter for the CME. After a certain distance, each point of the CME front is propagating based on the conditions in the heliosphere. In this case study, we compare our results to previous arrival time predictions using ELEvoHI with a rigid CME front. We find that the actual arrival time at Earth and the arrival time predicted by the new model are in very good agreement.</p>

Effect of the ambient solar wind speed on drag-based CME prediction accuracy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanja Amerstorfer ◽  
Jürgen Hinterreiter ◽  
Martin A. Reiss ◽  
Jackie A. Davies ◽  
Christian Möstl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Ecliptic Plane ◽  
Arrival Probability ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

<p>In the last years, many kinds of CME models, based on a drag-based evolution through interplanetary space, have been developed and are now widely used by the community. The unbeatable advantage of those methods is that they are computationally cheap and are therefore suitable to be used as ensemble models. Additionally, their prediction accuracy is absolutely comparable to more sophisticated models.</p><p>The ELlipse Evolution model based on heliospheric imager (HI) observations (ELEvoHI) assumes an elliptic frontal shape within the ecliptic plane and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used as an ensemble simulation by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary values. The results include a frequency distribution of predicted arrival time and arrival speed and an estimation of the arrival probability.</p><p>In this study, we investigate the possibility of not only varying the parameters related to the CME's ecliptic extent but also the ambient solar wind speed for each CME ensemle member. Although we have used a range of +/-100 km/s for possible values of the solar wind speed in the past, only the best candidate was in the end used to contribute to the prediction. We present the results of this approach by applying it to a CME propagating in a highly structured solar wind and compare the frequency distribution of the arrival time and speed predictions to those of the usual ELEvoHI approach.</p>

scholarly journals IPS Observations at Beijing Astronomical Observatory

2002 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 398
Author(s):  
X.Z. Zhang ◽  
J.H. Wu
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Radio Wave ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Astronomical Observatory ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Irregular Structures ◽  
Good Agreement

The radio wave from distant radio sources will be scattered by the irregular structures of the solar wind plasma when propagating through the interplanetary space, resulting into a randomly fluctuating pattern of the radio wave in observation. This pattern is called interplanetary scintillation (IPS). Observation on IPS can give information of the solar wind speed and irregular structures in solar wind plasma. The IPS observations began at Miyun Station, Beijing Astronomical Observatory from the late half of 1999. The properties of the telescope and description of the data analysis can be found in the papers of Wang (1987) and Wu, Zhang and Zheng (2000) respectively.Table 1 summarizes some observational results using IPS source 3C48 in April and May 2000. The Fresnel knees and the first minima in the IPS spectra were used to estimate solar wind speeds. Comparisons of our results with the unpublished data of Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center obtained from their web site, have been done and good agreement between the two systems was found. Since the collecting area of Miyun telescope is limited, the system noise is relatively high and dominates the high-frequency parts of the spectra. The Miyun IPS observation and data reduction procedures are still under developing and will soon be completed.

CME arrival prediction and its dependency on input data and model parameters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanja Amerstorfer ◽  
Jürgen Hinterreiter ◽  
Martin A. Reiss ◽  
Maike Bauer ◽  
Christian Möstl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

<p>During the last years, we focused on developing a prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations of STEREO's heliospheric imagers. The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from close to the Sun up to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that using this advantage instead of relying on coronagraph observations that are limited to observe only 14% of the Sun-Earth line, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions.<br>The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes an elliptic frontal shape within the ecliptic plane and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used as an ensemble simulation by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary values. The results include a frequency distrubution of predicted arrival time and arrival speed and an estimation of the arrival probability. ELEvoHI can be operated using several kinds of inputs. In this study we investigate 15 well-defined single CMEs when STEREO was around L4/5 between the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2011. Three different sources of input propagation directions (and shapes) are used together with three different sources of ambient solar wind speed and two different ways of defining the most appropriate fit to the HI data. The combination of these different approaches and inputs leads to 18 different model set-ups used to predict each of the 15 events in our list leading to 270 ELEvoHI ensemble predictions and all in all to almost 60000 runs. To identify the most suitable and most accurate model set-up to run ELEvoHI, we compare the predictions to the actual in situ arrival of the CMEs.<br>This model is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1 and can also directly be used together with STEREO-A near real-time HI beacon data to provide real-time CME arrival predictions during the next 7 years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.</p>

scholarly journals Solar cycle changes of large-scale solar wind structure

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (S264) ◽  
pp. 356-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. K. Manoharan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Wind Structure ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Solar Wind Structure ◽  
Current Minimum ◽  
Inner Heliosphere

AbstractIn this paper, I present the results on large-scale evolution of density turbulence of solar wind in the inner heliosphere during 1985–2009. At a given distance from the Sun, the density turbulence is maximum around the maximum phase of the solar cycle and it reduces to ~70%, near the minimum phase. However, in the current minimum of solar activity, the level of turbulence has gradually decreased, starting from the year 2005, to the present level of ~30%. These results suggest that the source of solar wind changes globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary space has significantly reduced in the present low level of activity.

scholarly journals The role of aerodynamic drag in dynamics of coronal mass ejections

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (S257) ◽  
pp. 271-277
Author(s):  
Bojan Vršnak ◽  
Dijana Vrbanec ◽  
Jaša Čalogović ◽  
Tomislav Žic
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Coronal Mass Ejections ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Aerodynamic Drag ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Standard Form ◽  
The Sun

AbstractDynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of “aerodynamic” drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass. Employing coronagraphic observations it is demonstrated that massive CMEs are less affected by the aerodynamic drag than light ones. On the other hand, in situ measurements are used to inspect the role of the solar wind speed and it is shown that the Sun-Earth transit time is more closely related to the wind speed than to take-off speed of CMEs. These findings are interpreted by analyzing solutions of a simple equation of motion based on the standard form for the drag acceleration. The results show that most of the acceleration/deceleration of CMEs on their way through the interplanetary space takes place close to the Sun, where the ambient plasma density is still high. Implications for the space weather forecasting of CME arrival-times are discussed.

scholarly journals Peculiar Current Solar-Minimum Structure of the Heliosphere

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (H15) ◽  
pp. 484-487
Author(s):  
P. K. Manoharan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Heliospheric Current Sheet ◽  
Coronal Density ◽  
Current Minimum ◽  
Similar Phase ◽  
The Magnetic Field

AbstractIn this paper, I review the results of 3-D evolution of the inner heliosphere over the solar cycle 23, based on observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made at 327 MHz using the Ooty Radio Telescope. The large-scale features of solar wind speed and density turbulence of the current minimum are remarkably different from that of the previous cycle. The results on the solar wind density turbulence show that (1) the current solar minimum is experiencing a low level of coronal density turbulence, to a present value of ~50% lower than the previous similar phase, and (2) the scattering diameter of the corona has decreased steadily after the year 2003. The results on solar wind speed are consistent with the magnetic field strength at the poles and the warping of heliospheric current sheet.

Large-scale electron solar wind parameters of the inner heliosphere with Parker Solar Probe/FIELDS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Issautier ◽  
Mingzhe Liu ◽  
Michel Moncuquet ◽  
Nicole Meyer-Vernet ◽  
Milan Maksimovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Study ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters ◽  
Power Law Index ◽  
Probe Mission ◽  
Inner Heliosphere

<p>We present in situ properties of electron density and temperature in the inner heliosphere obtained during the three first solar encounters at 35 solar radii of the Parker Solar Probe mission. These preliminary results, recently shown by Moncuquet et al., ApJS, 2020, are obtained from the analysis of the plasma quasi-thermal noise (QTN) spectrum measured by the radio RFS/FIELDS instrument along the trajectories extending between 0.5 and 0.17 UA from the Sun, revealing different states of the emerging solar wind, five months apart. The temperature of the weakly collisional core population varies radially with a power law index of about -0.8, much slower than adiabatic, whereas the temperature of the supra-thermal population exhibits a much flatter radial variation, as expected from its nearly collisionless state. These measured temperatures are close to extrapolations towards the Sun of Helios measurements.</p><p>We also present a statistical study from these in situ electron solar wind parameters, deduced by QTN spectroscopy, and compare the data to other onboard measurements. In addition, we focus on the large-scale solar wind properties. In particular, from the invariance of the energy flux, a direct relation between the solar wind speed and its density can be deduced, as we have already obtained based on Wind continuous in situ measurements (Le Chat et al., Solar Phys., 2012). We study this anti-correlation during the three first solar encounters of PSP.</p>

scholarly journals Observations of interplanetary scintillation in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (S294) ◽  
pp. 487-488
Author(s):  
Li-Jia Liu ◽  
Bo Peng
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Small Diameter ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Radio Sources ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Interplanetary Scintillation ◽  
The Earth

AbstractThe Sun affects the Earth in multiple ways. In particular, the material in interplanetary space comes from coronal expansion in the form of solar wind, which is the primary source of the interplanetary medium. Ground-based Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) observations are an important and effective method for measuring solar wind speed and the structures of small diameter radio sources. In this paper we will discuss the IPS observations in China.

The nature of comets

1987 ◽  
Vol 323 (1572) ◽  
pp. 437-446 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Head Region ◽  
Scientific Curiosity ◽  
Halley's Comet ◽  
First Results ◽  
Cometary Material ◽  
Field Lines

The vast scientific campaign associated with the 1986 return of Halley’s Comet has greatly improved and expanded our knowledge of comets. An overview of the first results is presented here with emphasis on the large-scale structure, the chemistry, and the nucleus. Biermann and Alfven’s basic large-scale picture involving the interaction with the solar wind was confirmed. The interaction extends over very large distances and involves the draping of magnetic field lines from the solar wind around the head region. The near-nuclear region is essentially free of magnetic field. The cometary environment is a rich plasma physics laboratory as well as the site of spectacular disconnection events. As Whipple proposed, the chemical composition of the nucleus is largely water, and the breakup of the water molecule produces the large hydrogen-cloud surrounding the comet. Minor constituents with high molecular mass have been observed in the comet. The composition of the dust generally resembles carbonaceous chondrites enriched in the elements H, C, N and O. The interest in the cometary chemistry stems from the belief that cometary material is probably the best remnant of the solar nebula’s original composition. The nucleus is monolithic, as predicted by Whipple’s icy-conglomerate model. Far from spherical, the nucleus is irregular and peanut- or potato-shaped. The surface is very dark, and the emission of gas and dust occurs in jets on the sunward side. Irregular erosion of the surface, which is covered by a dust crust, could lead to many interesting possibilities for outbursts or splitting. Even with our current enhancement of knowledge, comets will continue to excite scientific curiosity. Future research on comets should be very fruitful.

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