Changes in surface level NO2 in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to predicted 2020 concentrations and the impact on O3.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhianna Evans ◽  
James Lee ◽  
Will Drysdale
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Chem Phys ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Urban Background ◽  
Random Forest Models ◽  
Primary Emissions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

<p>Governments worldwide have used non pharmaceutical interventions known as lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, leading to a mass reduction in road traffic and international travel as working from home becomes the new normal. As a result, primary emissions of nitrogen oxides are expected to have largely decreased. A study of the UK’s first lockdown (Lee et al. 2020) used historical averages, taken between 2015 and 2019, as a baseline for comparison. This method is simplistic however does not fully account for the year to year meteorological variation. The UK’s first national lockdown was announced on 23<sup>rd</sup> March 2020 extending to 31<sup>st</sup> May 2020 and by mid-April traffic was reduced by 70% compared to normal according to the Department for Transport. We examined NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub>, measured by the UK’s Automatic Urban and Rural Network for the year 2020 consisting of 65 urban traffic and 61 urban background sites, for the lockdown period from 2000 to 2020. Between 2000 and 2019 NO<sub>2</sub> decreased by an average of 0.88 and 0.49 μg m<sup>-3</sup> per year at urban traffic and urban background sites respectively. In 2020, the lockdown caused a 20 μg m<sup>-3</sup> decrease in NO<sub>2</sub> at urban traffic sites, an equivalent of 26 years at the previous rate.</p><p>To improve on the previous method, we have constructed random forest models to simulate business as usual NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> concentrations at AURN sites in 9 cities, allowing changes in meteorology to be fully accounted for. These simulations were then compared to lockdown measurements in 2020. We observed an average 55% decrease in NO<sub>2</sub> however O<sub>3</sub> concentrations were elevated with an average 29% increase. The total oxidant, O<sub>x</sub>, (sum of NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub>) experienced marginal change (< 1%) indicating the changes in NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> were largely due to photochemical repartitioning. This has highlighted the importance of O<sub>3</sub> in urban locations in a future low NO<sub>x</sub> environment in the UK when electric vehicle fleets are adopted. </p><p> </p><p>Lee et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2020, <strong>20</strong>, 15743 – 15759</p>

scholarly journals Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry E. R. Shepherd ◽  
Florence S. Atherden ◽  
Ho Man Theophilus Chan ◽  
Alexandra Loveridge ◽  
Andrew J. Tatem
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
International Mobility ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF THE RAINSTORM ON URBAN ROAD TRAFFIC SPEED — A CASE STUDY OF SHENZHEN, CHINA

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W7 ◽  
pp. 71-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Li ◽  
X. Hao ◽  
W. Wang ◽  
A. Wu ◽  
Z. Xie
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Shenzhen City ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Stormy Weather ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Traffic Speed ◽  
The Impact

The adverse weather may significantly impact urban traffic speed and travel time. Understanding the influence of the rainstorm to urban traffic speed is of great importance for traffic management under stormy weather. This study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall intensity on traffic speed in the Shenzhen (China) during the period 1 July 2015–31 August 2016. The analysis was carried out for five 1-h periods on weekdays during the morning periods (6:00 AM–11:00 AM). Taxi-enabled GPS tracking data obtained from Shenzhen city are used in the analysis. There are several findings in this study. Firstly, nearly half of the roads are significantly affected by the rainstorm. Secondly, the proportion of positive correlated roads is about 35 %, but there still are some roads with uncorrelated traffic speed variation rates (SVR) and rainfall intensities. Thirdly, the impact of the rainstorm on traffic speed is not homogeneous but with obvious spatial difference. This research provides useful information that can be used in traffic management on a city-wide scale under stormy weather.

scholarly journals A comparison of approaches for investigating the impact of ambient light on road traffic collisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 147715352092406 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Fotios ◽  
CJ Robbins ◽  
J Uttley
Keyword(s):  
Detrimental Effect ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Previous Analysis ◽  
Ambient Light ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Road Traffic Collision ◽  
Repeated Analysis ◽  
Traffic Collision ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

A recent paper proposed a more precise approach for investigating the impact of ambient light (daylight versus after dark) on road traffic collisions. The present paper first repeated that analysis of road traffic collisions in the UK to test reproducibility; it then extended the analysis to determine whether the greater precision affected the outcome of road traffic collision analyses. Results of the previous analysis were reproduced in terms of the direction of the effect, but the repeated analysis found greater differences between daylight and darkness. The odds ratio determined using the new method led to higher odds ratios than the analyses used in some past studies, suggesting that past studies may have underestimated the detrimental effect of darkness on road traffic collision risk.

scholarly journals Analysing the variation in volume and nature of trauma presentations during COVID-19 lockdown in Ireland

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 261-266
Author(s):  
Stephen Fahy ◽  
Joss Moore ◽  
Michael Kelly ◽  
Olivia Flannery ◽  
Paddy Kenny
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Imaging System ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Unintended Consequence ◽  
Outdoor Activities ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Aims Europe has found itself at the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic. Naturally, this has placed added strain onto healthcare systems internationally. It was feared that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could overrun the Irish healthcare system. As such, the Irish government opted to introduce a national lockdown on the 27 March 2020 in an attempt to stem the flow of admissions to hospitals. Similar lockdowns in the UK and New Zealand have resulted in reduced emergency department presentations and trauma admissions. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the national lockdown on trauma presentations to a model-3 hospital in Dublin, Ireland. Methods A retrospective study was conducted. All emergency department presentations between 27 March 2019 to 27 April 2020 and 27 March 2020 to 27 April 2020 were cross-referenced against the National Integrated Medical Imaging System-Picture Archiving Communication System (NIMIS-PACS) radiology system to identify those with radiologically proven skeletal trauma. These patients were grouped according to sex, age, discharge outcome, mechanism of injury, and injury location. Results A 21% decrease in radiologically proven trauma was observed on comparison with the same time-period last year. Additionally, a 40% reduction in trauma admissions was observed during the COVID-19 lockdown. A 60% reduction in sports-related injuries and road traffic accident-related injuries was noted during the national lockdown. However, a 17% increase was observed in patients sustaining trauma because of domestic accidents. Conclusion Variation was observed in both the volume and nature of trauma presentations during the COVID-19 lockdown. As would be expected, a reduction was seen in the number of injuries resulting from outdoor activities. Interestingly, increased rates of domestic injuries were seen during this period which could represent an unintended consequence of the prolonged period of lockdown. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:261–266.

scholarly journals A Deep Recurrent Reinforced Learning model to compare the efficacy of targeted local vs. national measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Dong ◽  
umberto benedetto ◽  
Shubhra Sinha ◽  
Arnaldo Dimagli ◽  
Massimo Caputo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Learning Model ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Reinforced Learning ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Objectives We have developed a deep learning model that provides predictions of the COVID-19 related number of cases and mortality in the upcoming 5 weeks and simulates the effect of policy changes targeting COVID-19 spread. Methods We developed a Deep Recurrent Reinforced Learning (DRRL) based model. The data used to train the DRRL model was based on various available datasets that have the potential to influence the trend in the number of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Analyses were performed based on the simulation of policy changes targeting COVID-19 spread, and the geographical representation of these effects. Results Model predictions of the number of cases and mortality of COVID-19 in the upcoming 5 weeks closely matched the actual values. Local lockdown with social distancing (LD_SD) was found to be ineffective compared to national lockdown. The ranking of effectiveness of supplementary measures for LD_SD were found to be consistent across national hotspots and local areas. Measure effectiveness were ranked from most effective to least effective: 1) full lockdown; 2) LD_SD with international travel -50%; 3) LD_SD with 100% quarantine; 4) LD_SD with closing school -50%; 5) LD_SD with closing pubs -50%. There were negligible differences observed between LD_SD, LD_SD with -50% food & Accommodation and LD_SD with -50% Retail. Conclusions The second national lockdown should be followed by measures which are more effective than LD_SD alone. Our model suggests the importance of restrictions on international travel and travel quarantines, thus suggesting that follow-up policies should consist of the combination of LD_SD and a reduction in the number of open airports within close proximity of the hotspot regions. Stricter measures should be placed in terms travel quarantine to increase the impact of this measure. It is also recommended that restrictions should be placed on the number of schools and pubs open.

scholarly journals The Compatibility of Motor Vehicle Insurance Law between the UK and EU

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hasan Alissa
Keyword(s):  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Case Law ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Insurance Law ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Motor Vehicle Insurance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This thesis examines the EU and UK regulation in respect of motor insurance law, including the Motor Vehicle Insurance Directives (MVID), the Road Traffic Acts 1930 and 1988, the Uninsured Drivers’ Agreements and the Untraced Drivers’ Agreements. It provides a critical assessment of the compatibility of national laws with their EU source/parent laws – in both the substantive elements of the laws and the administrative and procedural rules under which they operate, and, given the significance of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, the impact of Brexit is considered. The study will ably demonstrate the deficiencies in the UK’s transposition of the law and will argue, given the supporting case law and the underlying rationale for the development of the Directives – the free movement principles of people and goods, that an rationale can be presented that the offending aspects of the national law should be disapplied. It is this aspect of the work which is unique and offers a consistent and certain future for motor vehicle insurance law and the rights of third-party victims in the UK.

scholarly journals Variability of levels of PM, black carbon and particle number concentration in selected European cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 8665-8717 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Reche ◽  
X. Querol ◽  
A. Alastuey ◽  
M. Viana ◽  
J. Pey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Traffic Emissions ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Gaseous Pollutants ◽  
Emission Sources ◽  
Urban Background ◽  
Road Traffic Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In many large cities of Europe standard air quality limit values of particulate matter (PM) are exceeded. Emissions from road traffic and biomass burning are frequently reported to be the major causes. As a consequence of these exceedances a large number of air quality plans, most of them focusing on traffic emissions reductions, have been implemented in the last decade. In spite of this implementation, a number of cities did not record a decrease of PM levels. Thus, is the efficiency of air quality plans overestimated? Or do we need a more specific metric to evaluate the impact of the above emissions on the levels of urban aerosols? This study shows the results of the interpretation of the 2009 variability of levels of PM, black carbon (BC), aerosol number concentration (N) and a number of gaseous pollutants in seven selected urban areas covering road traffic, urban background, urban-industrial, and urban-shipping environments from southern, central and northern Europe. The results showed that variations of PM and N levels do not always reflect the variation of the impact of road traffic emissions on urban aerosols. However, BC levels vary proportionally with those of traffic related gaseous pollutants, such as CO, NO2 and NO. Due to this high correlation, one may suppose that monitoring the levels of these gaseous pollutants would be enough to extrapolate exposure to traffic-derived BC levels. However, the BC/CO, BC/NO2 and BC/NO ratios vary widely among the cities studied, as a function of distance to traffic emissions, vehicle fleet composition and the influence of other emission sources such as biomass burning. Thus, levels of BC should be measured at air quality monitoring sites. During traffic rush hours, a narrow variation in the N/BC ratio was evidenced, but a wide variation of this ratio was determined for the noon period. Although in central and northern Europe N and BC levels tend to vary simultaneously, not only during the traffic rush hours but also during the whole day, in urban background stations in southern Europe maximum N levels coinciding with minimum BC levels are recorded at midday in all seasons. These N maxima recorded in southern European urban background environments are attributed to midday nucleation episodes occurring when gaseous pollutants are diluted and maximum insolation and O3 levels occur. The occurrence of SO2 peaks may also contribute to the occurrence of midday nucleation bursts in specific industrial or shipping-influenced areas, although at several central European sites similar levels of SO2 are recorded without yielding nucleation episodes. Accordingly, it is clearly evidenced that N variability in different European urban environments is not equally influenced by the same emission sources and atmospheric processes. We conclude that N variability does not always reflect the impact of road traffic on air quality, whereas BC is a more consistent tracer of such an influence. The combination of PM10 and BC monitoring in urban areas potentially constitutes a useful approach to evaluate the impact of road traffic emissions on air quality.

scholarly journals New considerations for PM, Black Carbon and particle number concentration for air quality monitoring across different European cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 6207-6227 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Reche ◽  
X. Querol ◽  
A. Alastuey ◽  
M. Viana ◽  
J. Pey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Traffic Emissions ◽  
Quality Monitoring ◽  
Gaseous Pollutants ◽  
Air Quality Monitoring ◽  
Urban Background ◽  
Road Traffic Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In many large cities of Europe standard air quality limit values of particulate matter (PM) are exceeded. Emissions from road traffic and biomass burning are frequently reported to be the major causes. As a consequence of these exceedances a large number of air quality plans, most of them focusing on traffic emissions reductions, have been implemented in the last decade. In spite of this implementation, a number of cities did not record a decrease of PM levels. Thus, is the efficiency of air quality plans overestimated? Do the road traffic emissions contribute less than expected to ambient air PM levels in urban areas? Or do we need a more specific metric to evaluate the impact of the above emissions on the levels of urban aerosols? This study shows the results of the interpretation of the 2009 variability of levels of PM, Black Carbon (BC), aerosol number concentration (N) and a number of gaseous pollutants in seven selected urban areas covering road traffic, urban background, urban-industrial, and urban-shipping environments from southern, central and northern Europe. The results showed that variations of PM and N levels do not always reflect the variation of the impact of road traffic emissions on urban aerosols. However, BC levels vary proportionally with those of traffic related gaseous pollutants, such as CO, NO2 and NO. Due to this high correlation, one may suppose that monitoring the levels of these gaseous pollutants would be enough to extrapolate exposure to traffic-derived BC levels. However, the BC/CO, BC/NO2 and BC/NO ratios vary widely among the cities studied, as a function of distance to traffic emissions, vehicle fleet composition and the influence of other emission sources such as biomass burning. Thus, levels of BC should be measured at air quality monitoring sites. During morning traffic rush hours, a narrow variation in the N/BC ratio was evidenced, but a wide variation of this ratio was determined for the noon period. Although in central and northern Europe N and BC levels tend to vary simultaneously, not only during the traffic rush hours but also during the whole day, in urban background stations in southern Europe maximum N levels coinciding with minimum BC levels are recorded at midday in all seasons. These N maxima recorded in southern European urban background environments are attributed to midday nucleation episodes occurring when gaseous pollutants are diluted and maximum insolation and O3 levels occur. The occurrence of SO2 peaks may also contribute to the occurrence of midday nucleation bursts in specific industrial or shipping-influenced areas, although at several central European sites similar levels of SO2 are recorded without yielding nucleation episodes. Accordingly, it is clearly evidenced that N variability in different European urban environments is not equally influenced by the same emission sources and atmospheric processes. We conclude that N variability does not always reflect the impact of road traffic on air quality, whereas BC is a more consistent tracer of such an influence. However, N should be measured since ultrafine particles (<100 nm) may have large impacts on human health. The combination of PM10 and BC monitoring in urban areas potentially constitutes a useful approach for air quality monitoring. BC is mostly governed by vehicle exhaust emissions, while PM10 concentrations at these sites are also governed by non-exhaust particulate emissions resuspended by traffic, by midday atmospheric dilution and by other non-traffic emissions.

scholarly journals The potential impact of vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccinations in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large cross-sectional survey and modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex de Figueiredo ◽  
Heidi J Larson ◽  
Stephen D Reicher
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Trends ◽  
The Impact

Background: Four vaccines against the novel coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have currently been approved for use in the United Kingdom. As of 30 April 2021, over 34 million adults have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The UK Government is considering the introduction of vaccine passports for domestic use and to facilitate international travel for UK residents. Although vaccine incentivisation has been cited as a motivating factor for vaccine passports, it is currently unclear whether vaccine passports are likely to increase inclination to accept a COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: We conducted a large-scale national survey in the UK of 17,611 adults between 9 and 27 April 2021. Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification is used to provide unbiased national-level estimates of the impact of the introduction of vaccine passports on inclination to accept COVID-19 vaccines among all respondents who have not yet had two vaccination doses. Multilevel regressions identify the differential impact of the likely impact of vaccine passports on uptake intent between socio-demographic groups. Gibbs sampling was used for Bayesian model inference, with 95% highest posterior density intervals used to capture uncertainty in all parameter estimates. Findings: We find that the introduction of vaccine passports will likely lower inclination to accept a COVID-19 vaccine once baseline vaccination intent has been adjusted for. Notably, this decrease is larger if passports were required for domestic use rather than for facilitating international travel. The impact of passports while controlling for baseline vaccination intent differentially impacts individuals by socio-demographic status, with being male (OR 0.87, 0.76 to 0.99) and having degree qualifications (OR 0.84, 0.72 to 0.94) associated with a decreased inclination to vaccinate if passports were required for domestic use, while Christians (OR 1.23, 1.08 to 1.41) have an increased inclination over atheists or agnostics. There is a strong association between change in vaccination inclination if passports were introduced and baseline vaccination intent: stated change in vaccination inclination is thus lower among Black or Black British respondents (compared to Whites), younger age groups, and non-English speakers. We find notable sub-national trends, for example, that passports could increase inclination among students and Jewish respondents in London compared to those in full-time education or atheists or agnostics, respectively. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first quantitative assessment of the potential impact of the introduction of vaccine passports on COVID-19 vaccine intention. Our findings should be interpreted in light of sub-national trends in current uptake rates across the UK, as our results suggest that vaccine passports may induce a lower vaccination inclination in socio-demographic groups that cluster geographically in large urban areas. Caution should therefore be exercised in introducing passports as they may result in less positive health-seeking behaviours for the COVID-19 vaccine (as well as other existing or future vaccinations) and may contribute to concentrated areas of low vaccinate uptake, which is an epidemic risk. We call for further evidence on the impact of vaccine certification on confidence in COVID-19 vaccines and in routine immunisations in wider global settings and, in particular, in countries with low overall trust in vaccinations or in authorities that administer or recommend vaccines.

scholarly journals Lagging Behind – The Emerging Influence of Jet Lag Symptoms on Road Safety

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang Yuin Chai ◽  
Gerard Thomas Flaherty
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Jet Lag ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of death in international travelers. With the growth of international travel, the number of visitors who rent a vehicle upon arrival at their destination by air or by sea is expected to increase. Jet lag is a well-recognized maladaptation to international travel across multiple time zones. Little is known about the possible influence of jet lag symptoms on the risk of road traffic collisions. Lack of awareness or failure to recognize the debilitating effects of jet lag and driving immediately after a long-haul flight put the driver at risk of a fatal road traffic accident. This article summarizes the available evidence and suggests reasonable approaches which may serve to minimize the risk of jet lag-induced driver fatigue leading to road injuries and deaths. The future research agenda should focus on routinely recording whether jet lag was a co-factor in road traffic accidents, analyzing the effectiveness of public awareness campaigns to highlight this neglected issue, and investigating the impact of jet lag on pedestrian road safety.

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