scholarly journals More Homogeneous Wind Conditions Under Strong Climate Change Decrease the Potential for Inter-State Balancing of Electricity in Europe

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Wohland ◽  
Mark Reyers ◽  
Juliane Weber ◽  
Dirk Witthaut
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Absolute Increase ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
European System ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Renewable Electricity Generation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonisation of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully-renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust increase of backup needs in Europe until the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase of the backup needs is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in extensive parallel generation shortfalls. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on Circulation Weather Types.

scholarly journals More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1047-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Wohland ◽  
Mark Reyers ◽  
Juliane Weber ◽  
Dirk Witthaut
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Absolute Increase ◽  
Simultaneous Generation ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Renewable Electricity Generation

Abstract. Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr−1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

scholarly journals Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Maize Production in East Sikkim, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
S. Babel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An investigation was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize yield using a yield response to water stress model (AquaCrop) and to identify suitable adaptation options to minimize the negative impacts on maize yield in East Sikkim, North East India. Crop management and yield data was collected from the field experimental plots for calibration and validation of the model for the study area. The future climate data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the statistical downscaling model, SDSM. The impact study revealed that there is an expected reduction in maize yield of 12.8, 28.3 and 33.9% for the A2 scenario and 7.5, 19.9 and 29.9% for the B2 scenario during 2012-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99 respectively compared to the average yield simulated during the period of 1961-1990 with observed climate data. The maize yield of same variety under future climate can be maintained or improved from current level by changing planting dates, providing supplement irrigation and managing optimum nutrient.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.15-27

scholarly journals Correction to: Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (2) ◽  
pp. 1107-1108
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Steinberg ◽  
Bryan K. Mignone ◽  
Jordan Macknick ◽  
Yinong Sun ◽  
Kelly Eurek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Side Impacts ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
The Us ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (7) ◽  
pp. 3749-3760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony C Fisher ◽  
W. Michael Hanemann ◽  
Michael J Roberts ◽  
Wolfram Schlenker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Fourth Assessment Report ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Random Fluctuations ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.

scholarly journals Validation of Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Distribution in South-South and South-East of Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
G. F. Ibeh ◽  
E. O. Echeweozo ◽  
L. O. Onuorah ◽  
E. E. Akpan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Fuel Gas ◽  
Urban Warming ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Perceived Impacts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The study determined the variations of carbon dioxide and temperature within south-south and south-eastern parts of Nigeria from January 2009 to December 2014. The study specifically focused on the perceived impacts posed by climate change on environment within these regions due to carbon dioxide emissions. The results revealed that rise in temperature within these regions could significantly be dependent on the increase in CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases. It was observed that CO2 emission increases continuously over all the years of study at each station. This could be attributed to high percent occurrences of urban warming experienced in these areas. The results also revealed that various impacts of climate change and weather within these regions could be due to high emission of carbon dioxide caused by fossil fuel, gas flaring etc found within these regions. It was also observed from the results that no gaseous pollutant or greenhouse gas can have 100% influences on climatic parameters like temperature.

Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Elias ◽  
Albert Rango ◽  
Caitriana M. Steele ◽  
John F. Mejia ◽  
Ruben Baca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2 °C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

Impacts of climate change on net crop revenue in North and South China

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinxia Wang ◽  
Jikun Huang ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
Yumin Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Variation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North And South ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of climate change on crop net revenue by region. Particularly, the authors focus on the impact differences between north and south regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors applied the Ricardian approach which assumes that each farmer wishes to maximize revenue subject to the exogenous conditions of their farm. The climate data are based on actual measurements in 753 national meteorological stations and the socio-economic data covers 8,405 farms across 28 provinces in China. Findings – On average, the rise of annual temperature will hurt farms both in the north or south. The impacts of climate change on both precipitation and temperatures have different seasonal impacts on producers in the north and the south of China. As a consequence, the impact on net farm revenues varies with farms in the north and the south being adversely affected (to different degrees) by a rise in the temperature, but both benefiting from an anticipated increase in rainfall. The results also reveal that irrigation is one key adaption measure to dealing with climate change. Whether in the north or south of China, increasing temperature is beneficial to irrigated farms, while for rainfed farms, higher temperature will result in a reduction in net revenues. The results also reveal that farms in the north are more vulnerable to temperature and precipitation variation than that in the south. Irrigated farms in the south are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the north; but rainfed farms in the north are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the south. Originality/value – Applying empirical analysis to identify the differences of climate change impacts between north and south regions will help policy makers to design reasonable adaptation policies for various regions.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achenafi Teklay ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Dereje H. Asfaw ◽  
Haimanote K Bayabil ◽  
Kibruyesfa Sisay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lake Tana Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

scholarly journals Examining the viability of the world’s busiest winter road to climate change using a process-based lake model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
D.J. Mullan ◽  
I.D. Barr ◽  
R.P. Flood ◽  
J.M. Galloway ◽  
A.M.W. Newton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
Heavy Haul ◽  
Winter Road ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractWinter roads play a vital role in linking communities and building economies in the northern high latitudes. With these regions warming two to three times faster than the global average, climate change threatens the long-term viability of these important seasonal transport routes. We examine how climate change will impact the world’s busiest heavy-haul winter road – the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR) in northern Canada. The FLake freshwater lake model is used to project ice thickness for a lake at the start of the TCWR – first using observational climate data, and second using modelled future climate scenarios corresponding to varying rates of warming ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above preindustrial temperatures. Our results suggest that 2°C warming could be a tipping point for the viability of the TCWR, requiring at best costly adaptation and at worst alternative forms of transportation. Containing warming to the more ambitious temperature target of 1.5°C pledged at the 2016 Paris Agreement may be the only way to keep the TCWR viable – albeit with a shortened annual operational season relative to present. More widely, we show that higher regional winter warming across much of the rest of Arctic North America threatens the long-term viability of winter roads at a continental scale. This underlines the importance of continued global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions to avoid many long-term and irreversible impacts of climate change.

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