scholarly journals Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0)

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris Kriest ◽  
Volkmar Sauerland ◽  
Samar Khatiwala ◽  
Anand Srivastav ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Tracers ◽  
Parameter Values

Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models contain a variety of different biogeochemical components and often much simplified representations of complex dynamical interactions, which are described by many ( ≈ 10 to  ≈ 100) parameters. The values of many of these parameters are empirically difficult to constrain, due to the fact that in the models they represent processes for a range of different groups of organisms at the same time, while even for single species parameter values are often difficult to determine in situ. Therefore, these models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing the relevant features of the present ocean, as well as their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We here present a framework for the calibration of global biogeochemical ocean models on short and long timescales. The framework combines an offline approach for transport of biogeochemical tracers with an estimation of distribution algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy, CMA-ES). We explore the performance and capability of this framework by five different optimizations of six biogeochemical parameters of a global biogeochemical model, simulated over 3000 years. First, a twin experiment explores the feasibility of this approach. Four optimizations against a climatology of observations of annual mean dissolved nutrients and oxygen determine the extent to which different setups of the optimization influence model fit and parameter estimates. Because the misfit function applied focuses on the large-scale distribution of inorganic biogeochemical tracers, parameters that act on large spatial and temporal scales are determined earliest, and with the least spread. Parameters more closely tied to surface biology, which act on shorter timescales, are more difficult to determine. In particular, the search for optimum zooplankton parameters can benefit from a sound knowledge of maximum and minimum parameter values, leading to a more efficient optimization. It is encouraging that, although the misfit function does not contain any direct information about biogeochemical turnover, the optimized models nevertheless provide a better fit to observed global biogeochemical fluxes.

scholarly journals Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris Kriest ◽  
Volkmar Sauerland ◽  
Samar Khatiwala ◽  
Anand Srivastav ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Tracers ◽  
Parameter Values

Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models contain a variety of different biogeochemical components and often much simplified representations of complex dynamical interactions, which are described by many (≈10–≈100) parameters. The values of many of these parameters are empirically difficult to constrain, due to the fact that in the models they represent processes for a range of different groups of organisms at the same time, while even for single species parameter values are often difficult to determine in situ. Therefore, these models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing the relevant features of the present ocean, as well as their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We here present a framework for the calibration of global biogeochemical ocean models on short and long time scales. The framework combines an offline approach for transport of biogeochemical tracers with an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy, CMAES). We explore the performance and capability of this framework by five different optimizations of six biogeochemical parameters of a global biogeochemical model. First, a twin experiment explores the feasibility of this approach. Four optimizations against a climatology of observations of annual mean dissolved nutrients and oxygen determine the extent, to which different setups of the optimization influence model's fit and parameter estimates. Because the misfit function applied focuses on the large-scale distribution of inorganic biogeochemical tracers, parameters that act on large spatial and temporal scales are determined earliest, and with the least spread. Parameters more closely tied to surface biology, which act on shorter time scales, are more difficult to determine. In particular the search for optimum zooplankton parameters can benefit from a sound knowledge of maximum and minimum parameter values, leading to a more efficient optimization. It is encouraging that, although the misfit function does not contain any direct information about biogeochemical turnover, the optimized models nevertheless provide a better fit to observed global biogeochemical fluxes.

Effects on hydrodynamics and ecological costs of climate change and tidal stream energy extraction in a shelf sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
Dina Sadykova ◽  
Beth Scott ◽  
Alexander Sadykov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Tidal Energy ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Energy Extraction ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
Tidal Stream

<p>The aim of this work is to analyse the potential impacts of tidal energy extraction on the marine environment. We wanted to put them in the broader context of the possibly greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Here, we present how very large (hypothetical) tidal stream arrays and a ''business as usual'' future climate scenario can change the hydrodynamics of a seasonally stratified shelf sea, and consequently modify ecosystem habitats and animals’ behaviour.</p><p>The Scottish Shelf Model, an unstructured grid three-dimensional ocean model, has been used to reproduce the present and the future state of the NW European continental shelf. While the marine biogeochemical model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) has been used to describe the corresponding biogeochemical conditions. Four scenarios have been modelled: present conditions and projected future climate in 2050, each with and without very large scale tidal stream arrays in Scottish Waters (UK). This allows us to evaluate the potential effect of climate change and large scale energy extraction on the hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry. We found that climate change and tidal energy extraction both act in the same direction, in terms of increasing stratification due to warming and reduced mixing, however, the effect of climate change is ten times larger. Additionally, the ecological costs and benefits of these contrasting pressures on mobile predator and prey marine species are evaluated using ecological statistical models.</p>

Relationship between total plasma homocysteine and the risk of aneurysms – a meta-analysis

VASA ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hanji Zhang ◽  
Dexin Yin ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yezhou Li ◽  
Dejiang Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Total Plasma ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Randomized Controlled Studies ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Healthy Participants

Summary: Our meta-analysis focused on the relationship between homocysteine (Hcy) level and the incidence of aneurysms and looked at the relationship between smoking, hypertension and aneurysms. A systematic literature search of Pubmed, Web of Science, and Embase databases (up to March 31, 2020) resulted in the identification of 19 studies, including 2,629 aneurysm patients and 6,497 healthy participants. Combined analysis of the included studies showed that number of smoking, hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) in aneurysm patients was higher than that in the control groups, and the total plasma Hcy level in aneurysm patients was also higher. These findings suggest that smoking, hypertension and HHcy may be risk factors for the development and progression of aneurysms. Although the heterogeneity of meta-analysis was significant, it was found that the heterogeneity might come from the difference between race and disease species through subgroup analysis. Large-scale randomized controlled studies of single species and single disease species are needed in the future to supplement the accuracy of the results.

scholarly journals Impact of the municipal merger on watershed management: a study of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Mizunoya ◽  
Noriko Nozaki ◽  
Rajeev Kumar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Watershed Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Pollution Reduction ◽  
Lake Kasumigaura ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn the early 2000s, Japan instituted the Great Heisei Consolidation, a national strategy to promote large-scale municipal mergers. This study analyzes the impact that this strategy could have on watershed management. We select the Lake Kasumigaura Basin, the second largest lake in Japan, for the case study and construct a dynamic expanded input–output model to simulate the ecological system around the Lake, the socio-environmental changes over the period, and their mutual dependency for the period 2012–2020. In the model, we regulate and control the following water pollutants: total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand. The results show that a trade-off between economic activity and the environment can be avoided within a specific range of pollution reduction, given that the prefectural government implements optimal water environment policies, assuming that other factors constraining economic growth exist. Additionally, municipal mergers are found to significantly reduce the budget required to improve the water environment, but merger budget efficiency varies nonlinearly with the reduction rate. Furthermore, despite the increase in financial efficiency from the merger, the efficiency of installing domestic wastewater treatment systems decreases drastically beyond a certain pollution reduction level and eventually reaches a limit. Further reductions require direct regulatory instruments in addition to economic policies, along with limiting the output of each industry. Most studies on municipal mergers apply a political, administrative, or financial perspective; few evaluate the quantitative impact of municipal mergers on the environment and environmental policy implications. This study addresses these gaps.

scholarly journals Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasad G. Thoppil ◽  
Sergey Frolov ◽  
Clark D. Rowley ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Gregg A. Jacobs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Mesoscale Dynamics ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Freshwater Transport ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Initial Location ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
High Uncertainty

AbstractMesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport and primary production in the upper ocean. However, the forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales in current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving ocean models, with horizontal resolution finer than 10 km in mid-latitudes, represent mesoscale dynamics, but mesoscale initial conditions are hard to constrain with available observations. Here we analyze a suite of ocean model simulations at high (1/25°) and lower (1/12.5°) resolution and compare with an ensemble of lower-resolution simulations. We show that the ensemble forecast significantly extends the predictability of the ocean mesoscales to between 20 and 40 days. We find that the lack of predictive skill in data assimilative deterministic ocean models is due to high uncertainty in the initial location and forecast of mesoscale features. Ensemble simulations account for this uncertainty and filter-out unconstrained scales. We suggest that advancements in ensemble analysis and forecasting should complement the current focus on high-resolution modeling of the ocean.

scholarly journals Rossby Waves in Astrophysics

2021 ◽  
Vol 217 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. V. Zaqarashvili ◽  
M. Albekioni ◽  
J. L. Ballester ◽  
Y. Bekki ◽  
L. Biancofiore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rotating Stars ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Physical Role ◽  
Astrophysical Objects ◽  
Exoplanetary Atmospheres ◽  
Rapidly Rotating Stars

AbstractRossby waves are a pervasive feature of the large-scale motions of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. These waves (also known as planetary waves and r-modes) also play an important role in the large-scale dynamics of different astrophysical objects such as the solar atmosphere and interior, astrophysical discs, rapidly rotating stars, planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres. This paper provides a review of theoretical and observational aspects of Rossby waves on different spatial and temporal scales in various astrophysical settings. The physical role played by Rossby-type waves and associated instabilities is discussed in the context of solar and stellar magnetic activity, angular momentum transport in astrophysical discs, planet formation, and other astrophysical processes. Possible directions of future research in theoretical and observational aspects of astrophysical Rossby waves are outlined.

scholarly journals Genome size correlates with reproductive fitness in seed beetles

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1815) ◽  
pp. 20151421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Göran Arnqvist ◽  
Ahmed Sayadi ◽  
Elina Immonen ◽  
Cosima Hotzy ◽  
Daniel Rankin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Natural Selection ◽  
Genome Size ◽  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Reproductive Fitness ◽  
Correlated Evolution ◽  
Seed Beetles

The ultimate cause of genome size (GS) evolution in eukaryotes remains a major and unresolved puzzle in evolutionary biology. Large-scale comparative studies have failed to find consistent correlations between GS and organismal properties, resulting in the ‘ C -value paradox’. Current hypotheses for the evolution of GS are based either on the balance between mutational events and drift or on natural selection acting upon standing genetic variation in GS. It is, however, currently very difficult to evaluate the role of selection because within-species studies that relate variation in life-history traits to variation in GS are very rare. Here, we report phylogenetic comparative analyses of GS evolution in seed beetles at two distinct taxonomic scales, which combines replicated estimation of GS with experimental assays of life-history traits and reproductive fitness. GS showed rapid and bidirectional evolution across species, but did not show correlated evolution with any of several indices of the relative importance of genetic drift. Within a single species, GS varied by 4–5% across populations and showed positive correlated evolution with independent estimates of male and female reproductive fitness. Collectively, the phylogenetic pattern of GS diversification across and within species in conjunction with the pattern of correlated evolution between GS and fitness provide novel support for the tenet that natural selection plays a key role in shaping GS evolution.

scholarly journals Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3973-3987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wetzel ◽  
Ernst Maier-Reimer ◽  
Michael Botzet ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Marine Biology ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Coupled Climate Model

Abstract The influence of phytoplankton on the seasonal cycle and the mean global climate is investigated in a fully coupled climate model. The control experiment uses a fixed attenuation depth for shortwave radiation, while the attenuation depth in the experiment with biology is derived from phytoplankton concentrations simulated with a marine biogeochemical model coupled online to the ocean model. Some of the changes in the upper ocean are similar to the results from previous studies that did not use interactive atmospheres, for example, amplification of the seasonal cycle; warming in upwelling regions, such as the equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea; and reduction in sea ice cover in the high latitudes. In addition, positive feedbacks within the climate system cause a global shift of the seasonal cycle. The onset of spring is about 2 weeks earlier, which results in a more realistic representation of the seasons. Feedback mechanisms, such as increased wind stress and changes in the shortwave radiation, lead to significant warming in the midlatitudes in summer and to seasonal modifications of the overall warming in the equatorial Pacific. Temperature changes also occur over land where they are sometimes even larger than over the ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the strength of interannual SST variability is reduced by about 10%–15% and phase locking to the annual cycle is improved. The ENSO spectral peak is broader than in the experiment without biology and the dominant ENSO period is increased to around 5 yr. Also the skewness of ENSO variability is slightly improved. All of these changes lead to the conclusion that the influence of marine biology on the radiative budget of the upper ocean should be considered in detailed simulations of the earth’s climate.

scholarly journals Variability in larval gut pH regulation defines sensitivity to ocean acidification in six species of the Ambulacraria superphylum

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1864) ◽  
pp. 20171066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marian Hu ◽  
Yung-Che Tseng ◽  
Yi-Hsien Su ◽  
Etienne Lein ◽  
Hae-Gyeong Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Ph Regulation ◽  
Gastric Ph ◽  
Differential Sensitivity ◽  
Larval Stages ◽  
Regulatory Systems ◽  
Alkaline Conditions ◽  
Gut Ph

The unusual rate and extent of environmental changes due to human activities may exceed the capacity of marine organisms to deal with this phenomenon. The identification of physiological systems that set the tolerance limits and their potential for phenotypic buffering in the most vulnerable ontogenetic stages become increasingly important to make large-scale projections. Here, we demonstrate that the differential sensitivity of non-calcifying Ambulacraria (echinoderms and hemichordates) larvae towards simulated ocean acidification is dictated by the physiology of their digestive systems. Gastric pH regulation upon experimental ocean acidification was compared in six species of the superphylum Ambulacraria. We observed a strong correlation between sensitivity to ocean acidification and the ability to regulate gut pH. Surprisingly, species with tightly regulated gastric pH were more sensitive to ocean acidification. This study provides evidence that strict maintenance of highly alkaline conditions in the larval gut of Ambulacraria early life stages may dictate their sensitivity to decreases in seawater pH. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and understanding pH regulatory systems in marine larval stages that may contribute to substantial energetic challenges under near-future ocean acidification scenarios.

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