scholarly journals Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris Kriest ◽  
Volkmar Sauerland ◽  
Samar Khatiwala ◽  
Anand Srivastav ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Tracers ◽  
Parameter Values

Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models contain a variety of different biogeochemical components and often much simplified representations of complex dynamical interactions, which are described by many (≈10–≈100) parameters. The values of many of these parameters are empirically difficult to constrain, due to the fact that in the models they represent processes for a range of different groups of organisms at the same time, while even for single species parameter values are often difficult to determine in situ. Therefore, these models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing the relevant features of the present ocean, as well as their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We here present a framework for the calibration of global biogeochemical ocean models on short and long time scales. The framework combines an offline approach for transport of biogeochemical tracers with an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy, CMAES). We explore the performance and capability of this framework by five different optimizations of six biogeochemical parameters of a global biogeochemical model. First, a twin experiment explores the feasibility of this approach. Four optimizations against a climatology of observations of annual mean dissolved nutrients and oxygen determine the extent, to which different setups of the optimization influence model's fit and parameter estimates. Because the misfit function applied focuses on the large-scale distribution of inorganic biogeochemical tracers, parameters that act on large spatial and temporal scales are determined earliest, and with the least spread. Parameters more closely tied to surface biology, which act on shorter time scales, are more difficult to determine. In particular the search for optimum zooplankton parameters can benefit from a sound knowledge of maximum and minimum parameter values, leading to a more efficient optimization. It is encouraging that, although the misfit function does not contain any direct information about biogeochemical turnover, the optimized models nevertheless provide a better fit to observed global biogeochemical fluxes.

scholarly journals Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0)

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris Kriest ◽  
Volkmar Sauerland ◽  
Samar Khatiwala ◽  
Anand Srivastav ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Tracers ◽  
Parameter Values

Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models contain a variety of different biogeochemical components and often much simplified representations of complex dynamical interactions, which are described by many ( ≈ 10 to  ≈ 100) parameters. The values of many of these parameters are empirically difficult to constrain, due to the fact that in the models they represent processes for a range of different groups of organisms at the same time, while even for single species parameter values are often difficult to determine in situ. Therefore, these models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing the relevant features of the present ocean, as well as their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We here present a framework for the calibration of global biogeochemical ocean models on short and long timescales. The framework combines an offline approach for transport of biogeochemical tracers with an estimation of distribution algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy, CMA-ES). We explore the performance and capability of this framework by five different optimizations of six biogeochemical parameters of a global biogeochemical model, simulated over 3000 years. First, a twin experiment explores the feasibility of this approach. Four optimizations against a climatology of observations of annual mean dissolved nutrients and oxygen determine the extent to which different setups of the optimization influence model fit and parameter estimates. Because the misfit function applied focuses on the large-scale distribution of inorganic biogeochemical tracers, parameters that act on large spatial and temporal scales are determined earliest, and with the least spread. Parameters more closely tied to surface biology, which act on shorter timescales, are more difficult to determine. In particular, the search for optimum zooplankton parameters can benefit from a sound knowledge of maximum and minimum parameter values, leading to a more efficient optimization. It is encouraging that, although the misfit function does not contain any direct information about biogeochemical turnover, the optimized models nevertheless provide a better fit to observed global biogeochemical fluxes.

Effects on hydrodynamics and ecological costs of climate change and tidal stream energy extraction in a shelf sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
Dina Sadykova ◽  
Beth Scott ◽  
Alexander Sadykov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Tidal Energy ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Energy Extraction ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
Tidal Stream

<p>The aim of this work is to analyse the potential impacts of tidal energy extraction on the marine environment. We wanted to put them in the broader context of the possibly greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Here, we present how very large (hypothetical) tidal stream arrays and a ''business as usual'' future climate scenario can change the hydrodynamics of a seasonally stratified shelf sea, and consequently modify ecosystem habitats and animals’ behaviour.</p><p>The Scottish Shelf Model, an unstructured grid three-dimensional ocean model, has been used to reproduce the present and the future state of the NW European continental shelf. While the marine biogeochemical model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) has been used to describe the corresponding biogeochemical conditions. Four scenarios have been modelled: present conditions and projected future climate in 2050, each with and without very large scale tidal stream arrays in Scottish Waters (UK). This allows us to evaluate the potential effect of climate change and large scale energy extraction on the hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry. We found that climate change and tidal energy extraction both act in the same direction, in terms of increasing stratification due to warming and reduced mixing, however, the effect of climate change is ten times larger. Additionally, the ecological costs and benefits of these contrasting pressures on mobile predator and prey marine species are evaluated using ecological statistical models.</p>

Climate and Climatological Variations in the Jornada Basin

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Wainright
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Jornada Basin ◽  
Instrumental Records

The purpose of this chapter is to review the climatic data for the Jornada Basin over the period for which instrumental records exist. Over this time period, up to 83 years in the case of the Jornada Experimental Range (JER), we can deduce both the long-term mean characteristics and variability on a range of different spatial and temporal scales. Short-term variability is seen in individual rainstorms. Longer-term patterns are controlled spatially by factors such as large-scale circulation patterns and basin and regional orography and temporally by the large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Variability can have significant impacts on the biogeography of a region (Neilson 1986) or its geomorphic processes (Cooke and Reeves 1976), which may set in motion a series of feedbacks, most important those referring to desertification (Schlesinger et al. 1990; Conley et al. 1992). Understanding the frequency and magnitude of such variability is therefore fundamental in explaining the observed landscape changes in areas such as the Jornada Basin. The patterns observed for different climatic variables within the available instrumental records for the Jornada Basin are defined in a hierarchical series of temporal scales, starting with the patterns that emerge from long-term average conditions and moving to seasonal and monthly, daily, and subdaily time scales. Two further analyses are made because of their potential importance to the hydrological and ecological characteristics of the basin, namely, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events and of longer-term changes. The effects of El Niño events in controlling the rainfall over decadal time scales will be addressed in particular. Spatial variability is an additional important concern, especially when characterizing dryland areas such as the Jornada Basin, where spatial variability tends to be high. The overall climate of the basin can be defined according to the Köppen classification as being cool and arid, belonging to the midlatitude desert zone (BWk). However, interannual variability is important, and occasionally, the annual conditions are more characteristic of the semiarid steppe (BSk) zone. The higher rainfall rates in the higher altitudes of the basin are also more characteristic of semiarid conditions.

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Importance of Chaotic Stirring and Turbulent Mixing on the West Florida Shelf

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 1743-1755 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Beron-Vera ◽  
M. J. Olascoaga
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Field ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
West Florida Shelf ◽  
The West ◽  
Florida Shelf ◽  
Surface Ocean

Abstract Application of dynamical systems tools has recently revealed in surface ocean currents produced by a Hybrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulation the presence of a persistent large-scale Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS) on the southern portion of the west Florida shelf (WFS). Consistent with satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, this LCS constitutes a cross-shelf barrier for the lateral transport of passive tracers. Because of the constraints that the above LCS, as well as smaller-scale LCSs lying shoreside, can impose on pollutant dispersal and its potentially very important biological consequences, a study was carried out on the nature of the surface ocean Lagrangian motion on the WFS. The analysis is based on the same simulated surface ocean velocity field that has been able to sustain the aforementioned persistent cross-shelf transport barrier. Examination of several diagnostics suggests that chaotic stirring dominates over turbulent mixing on time scales of up to two months or so. More specifically, it is found on those time scales that tracer evolution at a given length scale is governed to a nonnegligible extent by coarser-scale velocity field features, fluid particle dispersion is spatially inhomogeneous, and the Lagrangian evolution is more irregular than the driving Eulerian flow.

scholarly journals Global Atmospheric Teleconnections and Multidecadal Climate Oscillations Driven by Southern Ocean Convection

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8107-8126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Cabré ◽  
Irina Marinov ◽  
Anand Gnanadesikan
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Ocean Convection

Abstract A 1000-yr control simulation in a low-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) family of climate models shows a natural, highly regular multidecadal oscillation between periods of Southern Ocean (SO) open-ocean convection and nonconvective periods. It is shown here that convective periods are associated with warming of the SO sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and more broadly of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) SSTs and atmospheric temperatures. This SO warming results in a decrease in the meridional gradient of SSTs in the SH, changing the large-scale pressure patterns, reducing the midlatitude baroclinicity and thus the magnitude of the southern Ferrel and Hadley cells, and weakening the SO westerly winds and the SH tropical trade winds. The rearrangement of the atmospheric circulation is consistent with the global energy balance. During convective decades, the increase in incoming top-of-the-atmosphere radiation in the SH is balanced by an increase in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) outgoing radiation. The energy supplying this increase is carried by enhanced atmospheric transport across the equator, as the intertropical convergence zone and associated wind patterns shift southward, toward the anomalously warmer SH. While the critical role of the SO for climate on long, paleoclimate time scales is now beyond debate, the strength and global scale of the teleconnections observed here also suggest an important role for the SO in global climate dynamics on the shorter interannual and multidecadal time scales.

scholarly journals Impact of the municipal merger on watershed management: a study of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Mizunoya ◽  
Noriko Nozaki ◽  
Rajeev Kumar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Watershed Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Pollution Reduction ◽  
Lake Kasumigaura ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn the early 2000s, Japan instituted the Great Heisei Consolidation, a national strategy to promote large-scale municipal mergers. This study analyzes the impact that this strategy could have on watershed management. We select the Lake Kasumigaura Basin, the second largest lake in Japan, for the case study and construct a dynamic expanded input–output model to simulate the ecological system around the Lake, the socio-environmental changes over the period, and their mutual dependency for the period 2012–2020. In the model, we regulate and control the following water pollutants: total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand. The results show that a trade-off between economic activity and the environment can be avoided within a specific range of pollution reduction, given that the prefectural government implements optimal water environment policies, assuming that other factors constraining economic growth exist. Additionally, municipal mergers are found to significantly reduce the budget required to improve the water environment, but merger budget efficiency varies nonlinearly with the reduction rate. Furthermore, despite the increase in financial efficiency from the merger, the efficiency of installing domestic wastewater treatment systems decreases drastically beyond a certain pollution reduction level and eventually reaches a limit. Further reductions require direct regulatory instruments in addition to economic policies, along with limiting the output of each industry. Most studies on municipal mergers apply a political, administrative, or financial perspective; few evaluate the quantitative impact of municipal mergers on the environment and environmental policy implications. This study addresses these gaps.

scholarly journals Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasad G. Thoppil ◽  
Sergey Frolov ◽  
Clark D. Rowley ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Gregg A. Jacobs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Mesoscale Dynamics ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Freshwater Transport ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Initial Location ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
High Uncertainty

AbstractMesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport and primary production in the upper ocean. However, the forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales in current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving ocean models, with horizontal resolution finer than 10 km in mid-latitudes, represent mesoscale dynamics, but mesoscale initial conditions are hard to constrain with available observations. Here we analyze a suite of ocean model simulations at high (1/25°) and lower (1/12.5°) resolution and compare with an ensemble of lower-resolution simulations. We show that the ensemble forecast significantly extends the predictability of the ocean mesoscales to between 20 and 40 days. We find that the lack of predictive skill in data assimilative deterministic ocean models is due to high uncertainty in the initial location and forecast of mesoscale features. Ensemble simulations account for this uncertainty and filter-out unconstrained scales. We suggest that advancements in ensemble analysis and forecasting should complement the current focus on high-resolution modeling of the ocean.

scholarly journals Rossby Waves in Astrophysics

2021 ◽  
Vol 217 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. V. Zaqarashvili ◽  
M. Albekioni ◽  
J. L. Ballester ◽  
Y. Bekki ◽  
L. Biancofiore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rotating Stars ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Physical Role ◽  
Astrophysical Objects ◽  
Exoplanetary Atmospheres ◽  
Rapidly Rotating Stars

AbstractRossby waves are a pervasive feature of the large-scale motions of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. These waves (also known as planetary waves and r-modes) also play an important role in the large-scale dynamics of different astrophysical objects such as the solar atmosphere and interior, astrophysical discs, rapidly rotating stars, planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres. This paper provides a review of theoretical and observational aspects of Rossby waves on different spatial and temporal scales in various astrophysical settings. The physical role played by Rossby-type waves and associated instabilities is discussed in the context of solar and stellar magnetic activity, angular momentum transport in astrophysical discs, planet formation, and other astrophysical processes. Possible directions of future research in theoretical and observational aspects of astrophysical Rossby waves are outlined.

scholarly journals Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3973-3987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wetzel ◽  
Ernst Maier-Reimer ◽  
Michael Botzet ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Marine Biology ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Coupled Climate Model

Abstract The influence of phytoplankton on the seasonal cycle and the mean global climate is investigated in a fully coupled climate model. The control experiment uses a fixed attenuation depth for shortwave radiation, while the attenuation depth in the experiment with biology is derived from phytoplankton concentrations simulated with a marine biogeochemical model coupled online to the ocean model. Some of the changes in the upper ocean are similar to the results from previous studies that did not use interactive atmospheres, for example, amplification of the seasonal cycle; warming in upwelling regions, such as the equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea; and reduction in sea ice cover in the high latitudes. In addition, positive feedbacks within the climate system cause a global shift of the seasonal cycle. The onset of spring is about 2 weeks earlier, which results in a more realistic representation of the seasons. Feedback mechanisms, such as increased wind stress and changes in the shortwave radiation, lead to significant warming in the midlatitudes in summer and to seasonal modifications of the overall warming in the equatorial Pacific. Temperature changes also occur over land where they are sometimes even larger than over the ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the strength of interannual SST variability is reduced by about 10%–15% and phase locking to the annual cycle is improved. The ENSO spectral peak is broader than in the experiment without biology and the dominant ENSO period is increased to around 5 yr. Also the skewness of ENSO variability is slightly improved. All of these changes lead to the conclusion that the influence of marine biology on the radiative budget of the upper ocean should be considered in detailed simulations of the earth’s climate.

scholarly journals Coupling between Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes and Mesoscale Land–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during Summer. Part II: Mean Impacts of the Mesoscale

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1247-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Surface Heterogeneity ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Mesoscale Circulations ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

Abstract This is Part II of a two-part study of mesoscale land–atmosphere interactions in the summertime U.S. Southern Great Plains. Part I focused on case studies drawn from monthlong (July 1995–97), high-resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations carried out to investigate these interactions. These case studies were chosen to highlight key features of the lower-tropospheric mesoscale circulations that frequently arise in this region and season due to mesoscale heterogeneity in the surface fluxes. In this paper, Part II, the RAMS-simulated mesoscale dynamical processes described in the Part I case studies are examined from a domain-averaged perspective to assess their importance in the overall regional hydrometeorology. The spatial statistics of key simulated mesoscale variables—for example, vertical velocity and the vertical flux of water vapor—are quantified here. Composite averages of the mesoscale and large-scale-mean variables over different meteorological or dynamical regimes are also calculated. The main finding is that, during dry periods, or similarly, during periods characterized by large-scale-mean subsidence, the characteristic signature of surface-heterogeneity-forced mesoscale circulations, including enhanced vertical motion variability and enhanced mesoscale fluxes in the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere, consistently emerges. Furthermore, the impact of these mesoscale circulations is nonnegligible compared to the large-scale dynamics at domain-averaged (200 km × 200 km) spatial scales and weekly to monthly time scales. These findings support the hypothesis that the land– atmosphere interactions associated with mesoscale surface heterogeneity can provide pathways whereby diurnal, mesoscale atmospheric processes can scale up to have more general impacts at larger spatial scales and over longer time scales.

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