scholarly journals Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masuo Nakano ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada ◽  
Masahiro Sawada ◽  
Hiromasa Yoshimura ◽  
Ryo Onishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Hydrostatic Balance ◽  
High Performance Computers

Abstract. Recent advances in high-performance computers facilitate operational numerical weather prediction by global hydrostatic atmospheric models with horizontal resolution ~ 10 km. Given further advances in such computers and the fact that the hydrostatic balance approximation becomes invalid for spatial scales

scholarly journals Global 7 km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): experimental design and preliminary results

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1363-1381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masuo Nakano ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada ◽  
Masahiro Sawada ◽  
Hiromasa Yoshimura ◽  
Ryo Onishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Global Spectral Model ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Mesh Models ◽  
Tc Prediction

Abstract. Recent advances in high-performance computers facilitate operational numerical weather prediction by global hydrostatic atmospheric models with horizontal resolutions of  ∼  10 km. Given further advances in such computers and the fact that the hydrostatic balance approximation becomes invalid for spatial scales  <  10 km, the development of global nonhydrostatic models with high accuracy is urgently required. The Global 7 km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7) is designed to understand and statistically quantify the advantages of high-resolution nonhydrostatic global atmospheric models to improve tropical cyclone (TC) prediction. A total of 137 sets of 5-day simulations using three next-generation nonhydrostatic global models with horizontal resolutions of 7 km and a conventional hydrostatic global model with a horizontal resolution of 20 km were run on the Earth Simulator. The three 7 km mesh nonhydrostatic models are the nonhydrostatic global spectral atmospheric Double Fourier Series Model (DFSM), the Multi-Scale Simulator for the Geoenvironment (MSSG) and the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). The 20 km mesh hydrostatic model is the operational Global Spectral Model (GSM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Compared with the 20 km mesh GSM, the 7 km mesh models reduce systematic errors in the TC track, intensity and wind radii predictions. The benefits of the multi-model ensemble method were confirmed for the 7 km mesh nonhydrostatic global models. While the three 7 km mesh models reproduce the typical axisymmetric mean inner-core structure, including the primary and secondary circulations, the simulated TC structures and their intensities in each case are very different for each model. In addition, the simulated track is not consistently better than that of the 20 km mesh GSM. These results suggest that the development of more sophisticated initialization techniques and model physics is needed to further improve the TC prediction.

scholarly journals High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Haarsma ◽  
M. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. A. Senior ◽  
A. Bellucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest the possibility for significant changes in both large-scale aspects of circulation, as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high resolution global simulations at climate time scales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centers and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other MIPs. Increases in High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enables a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility to extend to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulation. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions: “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

scholarly journals High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4185-4208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reindert J. Haarsma ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Catherine A. Senior ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

scholarly journals Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (9) ◽  
pp. 3653-3680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Traute Crueger ◽  
Roberta D’Agostino ◽  
Karsten Peters ◽  
Tobias Becker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

scholarly journals A case study carried out with two different NWP systems

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 755-760
Author(s):  
P. Kållberg ◽  
A. Montani
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Screen Level ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Surface Fields

Abstract. A model intercomparison between two atmospheric models, the non–hydrostatic Lokal Modell (LM) and the hydrostatic HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) is carried out for a one-week period, including a case of cyclogeneis leading to heavy precipitation over Northern Italy. The two models, very different in terms of data-assimilation and numerics, provide different results in terms of forecasts of surface fields. Opposite diurnal biases for the two models are found in terms of screen level temperatures. HIRLAM wind speed forecasts are too strong, while LM precipitation forecasts have larger extremes. The intercomparison exercise identifies some systematic differences in the weather products generated by the two systems and sheds some light on the biases of the two numerical weather prediction systems.

Surfex : une plateforme pour simuler les flux des surfaces océaniques et continentales

2020 ◽  
pp. 082
Author(s):  
Patrick Le Moigne ◽  
Marie Minvielle
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Surface Type ◽  
Lower Boundary Condition ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Earth

Dans les modèles atmosphériques de prévision numérique du temps et de climat, la surface constitue la condition à la limite inférieure. La grande variété des paysages présents sur l'ensemble du globe et les spécificités de chacun des types de surface rendent complexe sa description dans les modèles. Par ailleurs, l'augmentation constante de la résolution horizontale des modèles nécessite une description fine des surfaces ainsi que des processus mis en jeu lorsqu'atmosphère et surface interagissent. Cet article décrit la plateforme de modélisation Surfex, en particulier comment la grande variété des types de surface est prise en compte, quelles sont les principales paramétrisations physiques et enfin comment est réalisé le couplage à un modèle atmosphérique. Surface is the lower boundary condition of numerical weather prediction and climate atmospheric models. Its representation in models is complicated by the large diversity in landscapes over the Earth, and the specificities of each surface type. In addition, the continuous increase in model horizontal resolution requires an accurate description of surfaces as well as the processes involved when surface and atmosphere are coupled. This article describes the Surfex modelling platform, particularly how the large amount of surface types are accounted for, which are the main physical processes represented and how the coupling to an atmospheric model can be achieved.

scholarly journals Response of Northern Hemisphere weather and climate to Arctic sea ice decline: Resolution independence in Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) simulations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Jan Streffing ◽  
Tido Semmler ◽  
Lorenzo Zampieri ◽  
Thomas Jung
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the weather and climate in mid-latitudes is still much debated, with observation suggesting a strong and models a much weaker link. In this study, we use the atmospheric model OpenIFS, in a set of model experiments following the protocol outlined in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), to investigate whether the simulated atmospheric response to future changes in Arctic sea ice fundamentally depends on model resolution. More specifically, we increase the horizontal resolution of the model from 125km to 39km with 91 vertical levels; in a second step resolution is further increased to 16km with 137 levels in the vertical. The model does produce a response to sea ice decline with a weaker mid latitude Atlantic jet and increased blocking in the high latitude Atlantic, but no sensitivity to resolution can be detected with 100 members. Furthermore we find that the ensemble convergence toward the mean is not impacted by the model resolutions considered here.

scholarly journals Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Roberts ◽  
Retish Senan ◽  
Franco Molteni ◽  
Souhail Boussetta ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper presents atmosphere-only and coupled climate model configurations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) for different combinations of ocean and atmosphere resolution. These configurations are used to perform multi-decadal ensemble experiments following the protocols of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMip) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are used to evaluate the sensitivity of major biases in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere to changes in atmosphere and ocean resolution. Climatological surface biases in ECMWF-IFS are relatively insensitive to an increase in atmospheric resolution from ~50 km to ~25 km. However, increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmosphere while maintaining the same vertical resolution enhances the magnitude of a cold bias in the lower stratosphere. In coupled configurations, there is a strong sensitivity to an increase in ocean model resolution from 1° to 0.25°. However, this sensitivity to ocean resolution takes many years to fully manifest and is not apparent in the first year of integration. This result has implications for the ECMWF coupled model development strategy that typically relies on the analysis of biases in short (

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