scholarly journals Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1319-1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gubler ◽  
S. Endrizzi ◽  
S. Gruber ◽  
R. S. Purves
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Hydraulic Properties ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Ground Types

Abstract. Model evaluation is often performed at few locations due to the lack of spatially distributed data. Since the quantification of model sensitivities and uncertainties can be performed independently from ground truth measurements, these analyses are suitable to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainties of a physically based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography. The setting consists of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by porosity and hydraulic properties. The analyses are performed for a combination of all factors, that allows for quantification of the variability of model sensitivities and uncertainties within a whole modeling domain. We found that model sensitivities and uncertainties vary strongly depending on different input factors such as topography or different soil types. The analysis shows that model evaluation performed at single locations may not be representative for the whole modeling domain. For example, the sensitivity of modeled mean annual ground temperature to ground albedo ranges between 0.5 and 4 °C depending on elevation, aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter duration of the snow cover. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties changes considerably for different ground types: rock or clay, for instance, are not sensitive to uncertainties in the hydraulic properties, while for gravel or peat, accurate estimates of the hydraulic properties significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. The discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) that cannot be neglected (more than 1 °C for several discretization parameters). We show that the temporal resolution should be at least 1 h to ensure errors less than 0.2 °C in modeled MAGT, and the uppermost ground layer should at most be 20 mm thick. Within the topographic setting, the total parametric output uncertainties expressed as the length of the 95% uncertainty interval of the Monte Carlo simulations range from 0.5 to 1.5 °C for clay and silt, and ranges from 0.5 to around 2.4 °C for peat, sand, gravel and rock. These uncertainties are comparable to the variability of ground surface temperatures measured within 10 m × 10 m grids in Switzerland. The increased uncertainties for sand, peat and gravel are largely due to their sensitivity to the hydraulic conductivity.

scholarly journals Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 791-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gubler ◽  
S. Endrizzi ◽  
S. Gruber ◽  
R. S. Purves
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Hydraulic Properties ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Monte Carlo Model ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Ground Types

Abstract. Before operational use or for decision making, models must be validated, and the degree of trust in model outputs should be quantified. Often, model validation is performed at single locations due to the lack of spatially-distributed data. Since the analysis of parametric model uncertainties can be performed independently of observations, it is a suitable method to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainty of a physically-based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography consisting of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by their hydraulic properties. The analyses performed for all combinations of topographic factors and ground types allowed to quantify the variability of model sensitivity and uncertainty within mountain regions. We found that modeled snow duration considerably influences the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT). The melt-out day of snow (MD) is determined by processes determining snow accumulation and melting. Parameters such as the temperature and precipitation lapse rate and the snow correction factor have therefore a great impact on modeled MAGT. Ground albedo changes MAGT from 0.5 to 4°C in dependence of the elevation, the aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter snow cover. Snow albedo and other parameters determining the amount of reflected solar radiation are important, changing MAGT at different depths by more than 1°C. Parameters influencing the turbulent fluxes as the roughness length or the dew temperature are more sensitive at low elevation sites due to higher air temperatures and decreased solar radiation. Modeling the individual terms of the energy balance correctly is hence crucial in any physically-based permafrost model, and a separate evaluation of the energy fluxes could substantially improve the results of permafrost models. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties change considerably for different ground types: rock or clay for instance are not sensitive while gravel or peat, accurate measurements of the hydraulic properties could significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. Further, the discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled MAGT that cannot be neglected (more than 1°C for several discretization parameters). We show that the temporal resolution should be at least one hour to ensure errors less than 0.2°C in modeled MAGT, and the uppermost ground layer should at most be 20 mm thick. Within the topographic setting, the total parametric output uncertainties expressed as the standard deviation of the Monte Carlo model simulations range from 0.1 to 0.5°C for clay, silt and rock, and from 0.1 to 0.8°C for peat, sand and gravel. These uncertainties are comparable to the variability of ground surface temperatures measured within 10 m × 10 m grids in Switzerland. The increased uncertainties for sand, peat and gravel is largely due to the high hydraulic conductivity.

Ground thermal contrasts and variability at an alpine pyramidal peak in central Austria (Innerer Knorrkogel, Venediger Mountains)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer ◽  
Gerhard Karl Lieb
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Temperature Monitoring ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Freeze Thaw ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Frost Weathering ◽  
Second Year ◽  
Ridge Flank

<p>Ground temperatures in alpine environments are severely influenced by slope orientation (aspect), slope inclination, local topoclimatic conditions, and thermal properties of the rock material. Small differences in one of these factors may substantially impact the ground thermal regime, weathering by freeze-thaw action or the occurrence of permafrost. To improve the understanding of differences, variations, and ranges of ground temperatures at single mountain summits, we studied the ground thermal conditions at a triangle-shaped (plan view), moderately steep pyramidal peak over a two-year period (2018-2020).</p><p>We installed 18 monitoring sites with 23 sensors near the summit of Innerer Knorrkogel (2882m asl), in summer 2018 with one- and multi-channel datalogger (Geoprecision). All three mountain ridges (east-, northwest-, and southwest-facing) and flanks (northeast-, west-, and south-facing) were instrumented with one-channel dataloggers at two different elevations (2840 and 2860m asl) at each ridge/flank to monitor ground surface temperatures. Three bedrock temperature monitoring sites with shallow boreholes (40cm) equipped with three sensors per site at each of the three mountain flanks (2870m asl) were established. Additionally, two ground surface temperature monitoring sites were installed at the summit.</p><p>Results show remarkable differences in mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) between the 23 different sensors and the two years despite the small spatial extent (0.023 km²) and elevation differences (46m). Intersite variability at the entire mountain pyramid was 3.74°C in 2018/19 (mean MAGT: -0.40°C; minimum: -1.78°C; maximum: 1.96°C;) and 3.27°C in 2019/20 (mean MAGT: 0.08°C; minimum: -1.54°C; maximum: 1,73°C;). Minimum was in both years at the northeast-facing flank, maximum at the south-facing flank. In all but three sites, the second monitoring year was warmer than the first one (mean +0.48°C) related to atmospheric differences and site-specific snow conditions. The comparison of the MAGT-values of the two years (MAGT-2018/19 minus MAGT-2019/20) revealed large thermal inhomogeneities in the mountain summit ranging from +0.65° (2018/19 warmer than 2019/20) to -1.76°C (2018/19 colder than 2019/20) at identical sensors. Temperature ranges at the three different aspects but at equal elevations were 1.7-2.2°C at ridges and 1.8-3.7°C at flanks for single years. The higher temperature range for flank-sites is related to seasonal snow cover effects combined with higher radiation at sun-exposed sites. Although the ground temperature was substantially higher in the second year, the snow cover difference between the two years was variable. Some sites experienced longer snow cover periods in the second year 2019/20 (up to +85 days) whereas at other sites the opposite was observed (up to -85 days). Other frost weathering-related indicators (diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, frost-cracking window) show also large intersite and interannual differences.</p><p>Our study shows that the thermal regime at a triangle-shaped moderately steep pyramidal peak is very heterogeneous between different aspects and landforms (ridge/flank/summit) and between two monitoring years confirming earlier monitoring and modelling results. Due to high intersite and interannual variabilities, temperature-related processes such as frost-weathering can vary largely between neighbouring sites. Our study highlights the need for systematic and long-term ground temperature monitoring in alpine terrain to improve the understanding of small- to medium-scale temperature variabilities.</p>

Climatic controls on active layer dynamics: Amsler Island, Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly R. Wilhelm ◽  
James G. Bockheim
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Ground Temperatures

AbstractVariations in atmospheric conditions can be important factors influencing temperature dynamics within the active layer of a soil. Solar radiation and air temperature can directly alter ground surface temperatures, while variations in wind and precipitation can control how quickly heat is carried through soil pores. The presence of seasonal snow cover can also create a thermal barrier between the atmosphere and ground surface. This study examines the relation between atmospheric conditions and ground temperature variations on a deglaciated island along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Ground temperatures were most significantly influenced by incoming solar radiation, followed by air temperature variations. When winter months were included in the comparison, the influence of air temperature increased while solar radiation became less influential, indicating that snow cover reflected solar radiation inputs, but was not thick enough to insulate the ground. When ground temperatures were compared to atmospheric conditions of preceding weeks, seasonal temperature peaks 1.6 m below ground were best related to seasonal air temperature peaks from the previous two weeks. The same ground temperature peaks were best related to seasonal solar radiation peaks of seven weeks prior. This difference was a result of temperature lags within the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Small-scale variation of snow in a regional permafrost model

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1201-1215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjersti Gisnås ◽  
Sebastian Westermann ◽  
Thomas Vikhamar Schuler ◽  
Kjetil Melvold ◽  
Bernd Etzelmüller
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Scale Variation

Abstract. The strong winds prevalent in high altitude and arctic environments heavily redistribute the snow cover, causing a small-scale pattern of highly variable snow depths. This has profound implications for the ground thermal regime, resulting in highly variable near-surface ground temperatures on the metre scale. Due to asymmetric snow distributions combined with the nonlinear insulating effect of snow, the spatial average ground temperature in a 1 km2 area cannot be determined based on the average snow cover for that area. Land surface or permafrost models employing a coarsely classified average snow depth will therefore not yield a realistic representation of ground temperatures. In this study we employ statistically derived snow distributions within 1 km2 grid cells as input to a regional permafrost model in order to represent sub-grid variability of ground temperatures. This improves the representation of both the average and the total range of ground temperatures. The model reproduces observed sub-grid ground temperature variations of up to 6 °C, and 98 % of borehole observations match the modelled temperature range. The mean modelled temperature of the grid cell reproduces the observations with an accuracy of 1.5 °C or better. The observed sub-grid variations in ground surface temperatures from two field sites are very well reproduced, with estimated fractions of sub-zero mean annual ground surface temperatures within ±10 %. We also find that snow distributions within areas of 1 km2 in Norwegian mountain environments are closer to a gamma than to a lognormal theoretical distribution. The modelled permafrost distribution seems to be more sensitive to the choice of distribution function than to the fine-tuning of the coefficient of variation. When incorporating the small-scale variation of snow, the modelled total permafrost area of mainland Norway is nearly twice as large compared to the area obtained with grid-cell average snow depths without a sub-grid approach.

Equilibrium Spin-up of Cold and Warm Permafrost Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Ross ◽  
Ryley Beddoe ◽  
Greg Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
Warm Permafrost

<p>Initialization (spin-up) of a numerical ground temperature model is a critical but often neglected step for solving heat transfer problems in permafrost. Improper initialization can lead to significant underlying model drift in subsequent transient simulations, distorting the effects on ground temperature from future climate change or applied infrastructure.  In a typical spin-up simulation, a year or more of climate data are applied at the surface and cycled repeatedly until ground temperatures are declared to be at equilibrium with the imposed boundary conditions, and independent of the starting conditions.</p><p>Spin-up equilibrium is often simply declared after a specified number of spin-up cycles. In few studies, equilibrium is visually confirmed by plotting ground temperatures vs spin-up cycles until temperatures stabilize; or is declared when a certain inter-cycle-temperature-change threshold is met simultaneously at all depths, such as ∆T ≤ 0.01<sup>o</sup>C per cycle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of these methods for determining an equilibrium state in a variety of permafrost models, including shallow and deep (10 – 200 m), high and low saturation soils (S = 100 and S = 20), and cold and warm permafrost (MAGT = ~-10 <sup>o</sup>C and >-1 <sup>o</sup>C). The efficacy of equilibrium criteria 0.01<sup>o</sup>C/cycle and 0.0001<sup>o</sup>C/cycle are compared. Both methods are shown to prematurely indicate equilibrium in multiple model scenarios.  Results show that no single criterion can programmatically detect equilibrium in all tested models, and in some scenarios can result in up to 10<sup>o</sup>C temperature error or 80% less permafrost than at true equilibrium.  A combination of equilibrium criteria and visual confirmation plots is recommended for evaluating and declaring equilibrium in a spin-up simulation.</p><p>Long-duration spin-up is particularly important for deep (10+ m) ground models where thermal inertia of underlying permafrost slows the ground temperature response to surface forcing, often requiring hundreds or even thousands of spin-up cycles to establish equilibrium. Subsequent transient analyses also show that use of a properly initialized 100 m permafrost model can reduce the effect of climate change on mean annual ground temperature of cold permafrost by more than 1 <sup>o</sup>C and 3 <sup>o</sup>C under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate projections, respectively, when compared to an identical 25 m model. These results have important implications for scientists, engineers and policy makers that rely on model projections of long-term permafrost conditions.</p>

A Digital Terrain Modeling Method in Urban Areas by the ICESat-2 (Generating precise terrain surface profiles from photon-counting technology)

2021 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 237-248
Author(s):  
Nahed Osama ◽  
Bisheng Yang ◽  
Yue Ma ◽  
Mohamed Freeshah
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Photon Counting ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Laser Altimeter ◽  
Ground Truth Data ◽  
Urban Scenes ◽  
Terrain Surface

The ICE, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICES at-2) can provide new measurements of the Earth's elevations through photon-counting technology. Most research has focused on extracting the ground and the canopy photons in vegetated areas. Yet the extraction of the ground photons from urban areas, where the vegetation is mixed with artificial constructions, has not been fully investigated. This article proposes a new method to estimate the ground surface elevations in urban areas. The ICES at-2 signal photons were detected by the improved Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise algorithm and the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System algorithm. The Advanced Land Observing Satellite-1 PALSAR –derived digital surface model has been utilized to separate the terrain surface from the ICES at-2 data. A set of ground-truth data was used to evaluate the accuracy of these two methods, and the achieved accuracy was up to 2.7 cm, which makes our method effective and accurate in determining the ground elevation in urban scenes.

scholarly journals NORPERM, the Norwegian Permafrost Database – a TSP NORWAY IPY legacy

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Juliussen ◽  
H. H. Christiansen ◽  
G. S. Strand ◽  
S. Iversen ◽  
K. Midttømme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal State ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Project ◽  
International Polar Year ◽  
Standard Format ◽  
Data Infrastructure ◽  
Data Loggers

Abstract. NORPERM – The Norwegian Permafrost Database was developed at the Geological Survey of Norway during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2009 as the main data legacy of the IPY research project Permafrost Observatory Project: A Contribution to the Thermal State of Permafrost in Norway and Svalbard (TSP NORWAY). This paper describes the structural and technical design of NORPERM. NORPERM follows the IPY data policy of open, free, full and timely release of IPY data, and the borehole metadata description follows the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) standard. The ground temperature data infrastructure in Norway and Svalbard is also presented, focussing on the TSP NORWAY permafrost observatory installations in the North Scandinavian Permafrost Observatory and Nordenskiöld Land Permafrost Observatory, as the data providers for NORPERM. Further developments of the database, possibly towards a regional database for the Nordic area, are also discussed. The purpose of NORPERM is to store ground temperature data safely and in a standard format for use in future research. NORPERM stores temperature time series from various depths in boreholes and from the air, snow cover, ground-surface or upper ground layer recorded by miniature temperature data-loggers, and temperature profiles with depth in boreholes obtained by occasional manual logging. It contains all the temperature data from the TSP NORWAY research project, totalling 32 boreholes and 98 sites with miniature temperature data-loggers for continuous monitoring of micrometeorological conditions, and 6 temperature depth profiles obtained by manual borehole logging. The amount of data in the database will gradually increase as data from older, previous projects are added. NORPERM also provides links to near real-time permafrost temperatures obtained by GSM data transfer.

scholarly journals Field measurement of ground temperatures in Bandung: devices and the results of measurement

2020 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nur Fajri Alfata ◽  
Amalia Nurjannah
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Sensor ◽  
Field Measurement ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Passive Cooling ◽  
Temperature Profiles ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Different Depths ◽  
Measurement Devices ◽  
Main Component

Ground cooling is considered to be one of the passive cooling strategies in buildings although its application is rarely found in Indonesia. Effectiveness of this strategy depend on the ground temperature profiles. Meanwhile, comprehensive data of ground temperature as a basis of design for ground cooling are still rarely found in Indonesia. This research aims to develop the measurement devices for collecting ground temperatures data and to investigate the ground temperatures in different depths (i.e., 1m, 2m, …, 9m). For measurement, an instrumentation system was developed with the main component of Arduino Mega 2560 as microcontroller. T-type thermocouples with diameter of 0, 5mm mounted in the metal cones were used as the temperature sensor and placed at the different depths. The field measurement was conducted from August to November 2019 in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. This study demonstrated that the developed instrument system had good performance both in measuring and data acquisition. Model equation was developed to predict the ground temperature at certain depth regardless ground materials and humidity level. The results indicated that the ground temperature significantly lower to 5m-depth. However, the reduction of the temperature after 5m was not significant; the deeper the ground, the temperature changes are negligible.

scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1957-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge ◽  
Prudhoe Bay

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon microtopography on near-surface ground temperatures. Ice wedge polygon microtopography is prone to rapid deformation in a changing climate, and cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost; therefore, feedbacks between microtopography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of sub-daily ground temperature observations at 5 depths and 9 locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.1 ∘C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that winter temperatures in the ice wedge are sensitive to both rim height and trough depth, but more sensitive to rim height. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. Deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for re-establishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be limited by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

Attempt predicting slab-on-ground temperature for bioclimatic buildings

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Mahach ◽  
Amin Bennouna ◽  
Brahim Benhamou
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Insulating Material ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Vertical Heat ◽  
Almost All

Abstract The prescriptive approach of the Moroccan Building Thermal Regulation (2015) provides for the insulation of buildings ground in almost all climatic zones of Morocco. This work demonstrates that it is an unnecessarily expensive constraint for most climatic zones of this country (only 8.6% of the cold semester days with slab-on-ground temperatures below 19°C and only 22% of the hot semester days above 26°C). This work shows also that the ground floor of a building is subject to (i) a slow mono-dimensional vertical heat transfer (outdoor ambient temperature long-term extrema delayed for – 22 days), (ii) a faster bi-dimensional horizontal heat transfer (outdoor ambient temperature singularities delayed for – 2 days for five meters from the edge of the building). To limit this, the authors recommend lateral insulation the first 50cm of the building foundations, with any adapted insulating material. In addition, building thermal simulation software need better site-specific models of the seasonal evolution of buildings slab-on-ground: a solution is proposed to obtain the seasonal variation of building slab-on-ground temperatures directly from the evolution of outdoor ambient temperature. It shows that this slab-on-ground temperature under cover varies almost like the at 1.6 m depth underground temperature of a non-covered soil.

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